Looking ahead to the 2022 Draft

[funkykingston]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1522594201426268160

Holy, 7-3 wingspan from Eason?? With his burst+energy on the defensive end?

Ohh buddy

Eason is still taking his guide hand off early on his shot, but he's continued to improve his overall motion since his time in Cincinnati. It's not classic mechanics, but it's compact and repeatable, especially for someone with long arms.

I continue to be high on Eason. He has some significant issues (he can play out of control on both ends - tunnel vision on offense and bad/frequent fouls on defense) but if he can be a plus shooter as a big wing/PF I think he's a great fit with Fox & Sabonis.

If De'Aaron and Domas are your building blocks, you're going to want 3&D guys around them in the starting lineup.

But specifically, you'll want a SG who (a) isn't ball dominant and (b) can ideally defend either guard spot since Fox is still a poor defender. Mitchell can guard PGs and pretty much all SGs but I don't know if he's a great fit starting next to Fox. DiVincenzo is more of a free safety type defender than a great 1:1 defender. Still I like what he brings and I hope he's re-signed. If he is, unless the Kings make a big signing or draft a stud SG, he should get an opportunity to start next to Fox.

Next to Sabonis you really want a big wing who can (a) stretch the floor (b) provide some weakside shotblocking (c) be switchable and active on defense and (d) is good in transition/off outlets and on cuts to the basket. Eason is probably the best fit for that in this draft. Jabari Smith Jr is a better shooter, but struggles a bit (at least for now) in attacking the basket and Eason is a better passer (again, for now). Holmgren is an elite shotblocker and should stretch the floor, but I don't think he'll be switchable on the NBA level. I think he could be a liability on that end if he's asked to guard big wings, but I don't think he will ever be able to check full grown centers. I like him a lot as a prospect, but in terms of fit, I don't know that he helps the Kings where they are weakest beyond rim protection - which doesn't work teams play 5 out and he's forced toward the perimeter.

For now, Barnes will man one of the wing spots.

I floated this idea previously, but if the Kings stay at 7 and Jalen Duran is still on the board, a trade with Charlotte for #13 and #15 makes a lot of sense. Duren is an ideal fit with Ball as a lob threat and transition big and he helps address Charlotte's biggest weakness as a poor defensive team.

At 13 the Kings grab Eason and at 15 hopefully either Malaki Branham or Ochai Agbaji are still on the board. Branham has more long term potential, but Agbaji could step in on day one and improve the perimeter defense. His outside shot is still streaky and even as a senior he drifted a bit, but I think with less offensive responsibility he'd get back to being more engaged defensively. If both are off the board I'd look at EJ Liddell, Kendall Brown, Ousmane Dieng, and Blake Wesley, probably in that order or maybe flip-flopping Lidell and Brown.

It's also looking likely that one or more of Jordan Hall, Johnny Juzang, Hyunjung Lee, Caleb Houston and/or Jabari Walker could go undrafted so there's some UDFA wing bargain shopping for McNair to do

But if it worked out I'd look to trade Richaun and Len. and probably either Harkless or Holiday Re-sign DiVincenzo and sign Hartenstein and you'd have

C Sabonis/Hartenstein/Queta or Jones
PF Eason/Lyles/Queta
SF Barnes/Harkless or Holiday/UDFA wing
SG DiVincenzo/Agbaji or Branham/Davis
PG Fox/Mitchell/FA 3rd PG

To me that's a team with some very solid potential.

My biggest concern is Eason playing himself into a higher pick.

 

[SacTownKid]

Out the 4/3's in that part of the draft I think Eason is the only one that jumps off the page a little. His first step is a little slow but he's crafty.

 

[ESP47]

If McNair can trade back with Atlanta to 13 and 16, he could have Eason, Sochan and Duren available. All the defense you could ever want if you could land two of them.

 

[The_Jamal]

Eason is still taking his guide hand off early on his shot, but he's continued to improve his overall motion since his time in Cincinnati. It's not classic mechanics, but it's compact and repeatable, especially for someone with long arms.

I continue to be high on Eason. He has some significant issues (he can play out of control on both ends - tunnel vision on offense and bad/frequent fouls on defense) but if he can be a plus shooter as a big wing/PF I think he's a great fit with Fox & Sabonis.

If De'Aaron and Domas are your building blocks, you're going to want 3&D guys around them in the starting lineup.

But specifically, you'll want a SG who (a) isn't ball dominant and (b) can ideally defend either guard spot since Fox is still a poor defender. Mitchell can guard PGs and pretty much all SGs but I don't know if he's a great fit starting next to Fox. DiVincenzo is more of a free safety type defender than a great 1:1 defender. Still I like what he brings and I hope he's re-signed. If he is, unless the Kings make a big signing or draft a stud SG, he should get an opportunity to start next to Fox.

Next to Sabonis you really want a big wing who can (a) stretch the floor (b) provide some weakside shotblocking (c) be switchable and active on defense and (d) is good in transition/off outlets and on cuts to the basket. Eason is probably the best fit for that in this draft. Jabari Smith Jr is a better shooter, but struggles a bit (at least for now) in attacking the basket and Eason is a better passer (again, for now). Holmgren is an elite shotblocker and should stretch the floor, but I don't think he'll be switchable on the NBA level. I think he could be a liability on that end if he's asked to guard big wings, but I don't think he will ever be able to check full grown centers. I like him a lot as a prospect, but in terms of fit, I don't know that he helps the Kings where they are weakest beyond rim protection - which doesn't work teams play 5 out and he's forced toward the perimeter.

For now, Barnes will man one of the wing spots.

I floated this idea previously, but if the Kings stay at 7 and Jalen Duran is still on the board, a trade with Charlotte for #13 and #15 makes a lot of sense. Duren is an ideal fit with Ball as a lob threat and transition big and he helps address Charlotte's biggest weakness as a poor defensive team.

At 13 the Kings grab Eason and at 15 hopefully either Malaki Branham or Ochai Agbaji are still on the board. Branham has more long term potential, but Agbaji could step in on day one and improve the perimeter defense. His outside shot is still streaky and even as a senior he drifted a bit, but I think with less offensive responsibility he'd get back to being more engaged defensively. If both are off the board I'd look at EJ Liddell, Kendall Brown, Ousmane Dieng, and Blake Wesley, probably in that order or maybe flip-flopping Lidell and Brown.

It's also looking likely that one or more of Jordan Hall, Johnny Juzang, Hyunjung Lee, Caleb Houston and/or Jabari Walker could go undrafted so there's some UDFA wing bargain shopping for McNair to do

But if it worked out I'd look to trade Richaun and Len. and probably either Harkless or Holiday Re-sign DiVincenzo and sign Hartenstein and you'd have

C Sabonis/Hartenstein/Queta or Jones
PF Eason/Lyles/Queta
SF Barnes/Harkless or Holiday/UDFA wing
SG DiVincenzo/Agbaji or Branham/Davis
PG Fox/Mitchell/FA 3rd PG

To me that's a team with some very solid potential.

My biggest concern is Eason playing himself into a higher pick.

Maybe you could keep 7 and trade Holmes for Plumlee (expiring) and one of 13 or 15. Seems like a pretty reasonable use of one of their picks where they get the C they wanted last off-season locked into a very affordable contract. Kings get more infusion of youth and a great shot at snagging one of those mid-lotto guys.

 

[SacTownKid]

If McNair can trade back with Atlanta to 13 and 16, he could have Eason, Sochan and Duren available. All the defense you could ever want if you could land two of them.

It would be interesting, but the easy choice is to come out of this draft with one of Davis, Griffin, Mathurin. This might finally be the year where the perfect pick is there and nothing is in their way. Unless they drop to 9 of course, lol. But some of the G/F's have dropped on some mocks. Now if they could get land Agbaji at one of those that would be very, very interesting.

 

[funkykingston]

It would be interesting, but the easy choice is to come out of this draft with one of Davis, Griffin, Mathurin. This might finally be the year where the perfect pick is there and nothing is in their way. Unless they drop to 9 of course, lol. But some of the G/F's have dropped on some mocks. Now if they could get land Agbaji at one of those that would be very, very interesting.

I like Mathurin, though I'm not as high on him as others are. But part of why I like the idea of trading back is that I'm not a fan of Griffin or Davis.

Well, let me rephrase that. I like Davis, I just think he's got limited upside. Griffin I may just need to watch more. I wasn't impressed by him at all in most games I saw.

 

[SacTownKid]

I like Mathurin, though I'm not as high on him as others are. But part of why I like the idea of trading back is that I'm not a fan of Griffin or Davis.

Well, let me rephrase that. I like Davis, I just think he's got limited upside. Griffin I may just need to watch more. I wasn't impressed by him at all in most games I saw.

I think they are all kind of in the same range as prospects. I do think that Davis has great 2 way upside and could be a 20 ppg scorer. Mathurin with his body and athletic skills makes him a bit higher in raw upside. Griffin if his shooting holds up, and it did in college which I in no way thought it could, could make him a terrific 3 and D player. Any of them could blow up in the right situation and be a 3rd star type IMO. Then in the wrong situation they could also be a lot less. Like Mitchell. When trying to fit in with 2 other guards blocking his path he looked like a bit of a bust, then when a spot opened up things changed. The problem none of them have though is that they aren't a 6 foot combo G. Either way, they all have the size and play an extremely important position in the NBA right now. Versatile wing types are crucial and this team doesn't have many at it's disposal with that kind of upside.

 

[hrdboild]

Eason is still taking his guide hand off early on his shot, but he's continued to improve his overall motion since his time in Cincinnati. It's not classic mechanics, but it's compact and repeatable, especially for someone with long arms.

I continue to be high on Eason. He has some significant issues (he can play out of control on both ends - tunnel vision on offense and bad/frequent fouls on defense) but if he can be a plus shooter as a big wing/PF I think he's a great fit with Fox & Sabonis.

If De'Aaron and Domas are your building blocks, you're going to want 3&D guys around them in the starting lineup.

But specifically, you'll want a SG who (a) isn't ball dominant and (b) can ideally defend either guard spot since Fox is still a poor defender. Mitchell can guard PGs and pretty much all SGs but I don't know if he's a great fit starting next to Fox. DiVincenzo is more of a free safety type defender than a great 1:1 defender. Still I like what he brings and I hope he's re-signed. If he is, unless the Kings make a big signing or draft a stud SG, he should get an opportunity to start next to Fox.

Next to Sabonis you really want a big wing who can (a) stretch the floor (b) provide some weakside shotblocking (c) be switchable and active on defense and (d) is good in transition/off outlets and on cuts to the basket. Eason is probably the best fit for that in this draft. Jabari Smith Jr is a better shooter, but struggles a bit (at least for now) in attacking the basket and Eason is a better passer (again, for now). Holmgren is an elite shotblocker and should stretch the floor, but I don't think he'll be switchable on the NBA level. I think he could be a liability on that end if he's asked to guard big wings, but I don't think he will ever be able to check full grown centers. I like him a lot as a prospect, but in terms of fit, I don't know that he helps the Kings where they are weakest beyond rim protection - which doesn't work teams play 5 out and he's forced toward the perimeter.

For now, Barnes will man one of the wing spots.

I floated this idea previously, but if the Kings stay at 7 and Jalen Duran is still on the board, a trade with Charlotte for #13 and #15 makes a lot of sense. Duren is an ideal fit with Ball as a lob threat and transition big and he helps address Charlotte's biggest weakness as a poor defensive team.

At 13 the Kings grab Eason and at 15 hopefully either Malaki Branham or Ochai Agbaji are still on the board. Branham has more long term potential, but Agbaji could step in on day one and improve the perimeter defense. His outside shot is still streaky and even as a senior he drifted a bit, but I think with less offensive responsibility he'd get back to being more engaged defensively. If both are off the board I'd look at EJ Liddell, Kendall Brown, Ousmane Dieng, and Blake Wesley, probably in that order or maybe flip-flopping Lidell and Brown.

It's also looking likely that one or more of Jordan Hall, Johnny Juzang, Hyunjung Lee, Caleb Houston and/or Jabari Walker could go undrafted so there's some UDFA wing bargain shopping for McNair to do

But if it worked out I'd look to trade Richaun and Len. and probably either Harkless or Holiday Re-sign DiVincenzo and sign Hartenstein and you'd have

C Sabonis/Hartenstein/Queta or Jones
PF Eason/Lyles/Queta
SF Barnes/Harkless or Holiday/UDFA wing
SG DiVincenzo/Agbaji or Branham/Davis
PG Fox/Mitchell/FA 3rd PG

To me that's a team with some very solid potential.

My biggest concern is Eason playing himself into a higher pick.

There's a lot that I agree with here. I wouldn't take that trade down scenario for #13 and #15 though because I don't think Eason will still be there at 13. A better scenario would be if we leapfrog OKC enough that we can make a two for one deal to get their #12 pick along with maybe #6 or so? OKC already has tons of prospects and future picks so they're going to want a blue chip guy like Holmgren or Banchero perhaps more than they want to double-dip here. That lottery scenario is incredibly unlikely though and reading the tea leaves a bit, I don't think Monte McNair sees this as a team that can fit two lottery picks anyway. He wants an established coach and an instant impact rookie to compliment the Fox/Mitchell/Barnes/Sabonis core group.

I'm sure I'm overthinking this myself but I honestly don't see a whole lot of separation in the prospects this year from 1 to 10. There are big differences in production vs. upside, age, body types, and skillsets but when I look at my top 10 guys I don't have an obvious answer for who is going to be better in the NBA. All of the top 4 consensus picks have big question marks (Chet - body type, Ivey - defense and ball dominance, Jabari - creating easy looks, defending quicker players, Paolo - defensive intensity and shooting). And when I look at who fits what the Kings are trying to build the best, it almost inverts my rankings compared to most mocks.

So here's what I've settled on as my draft wish list right now...

TIER 1 - IDEAL FITS

1. Bennedict Mathurin (SG/SF)
2. Keegan Murray (SF/PF)
3. Tari Eason (SF/PF)
4. Jeremy Sochan (SF/PF)
5. AJ Griffin (SF)

These guys are all long, athletic, have shown some ability to get to the basket and finish, and should be able to defend well within the context of a well-coached team concept. I'm also a little wary of AJ Griffin but I think there's enough upside there with further time to recover from his injuries to keep him in this tier. I'm really banking on Eason and Sochan improving their shooting for this ranking to make sense, but in every other way they're perfect fits for us and nobody goes into the NBA in 2022 without knowing that they need to improve as a shooter.

TIER 2 - PURE BPA PICKS

1. Chet Holmgren (C)
2. Jaden Ivey (PG/SG)
3. Jabari Smith (PF)
4. Mark Williams (C)
5. Paolo Banchero (PF)

This is the realm of boom or bust picks. As much as I like Chet Holmgren, he's going to live in the paint on defense and that means Sabonis is chasing all the small ball 4s out to the three point line. I just don't like that as a team-defining concept. Same problem with Mark Williams. Jaden Ivey is fun as hell to watch but he's basically another DeAaron Fox with most of the same strengths and weaknesses as a prospect. Jabari is an elite shooter but I don't see him as elite in any other area. Paolo lives in the mid-range and didn't impress on defense which makes him the worst possible fit for us.

I don't rate Jonny Davis or Shaedon Sharpe unless none of these players are left and even then I have reservations about the fit. I realize this is a controversial way to approach the draft -- I'm well aware of the BPA rule. But this year in particular with a new coaching staff coming in and all the pressure on Fox and Sabonis to lead this team to the playoffs next season, I'd rather feel really good about getting a solid starter who fits our team than feel marginally good that I may have drafted a star. If it doesn't work out in two years we'll be blowing it up again anyway and by then hopefully there will be a franchise player waiting for us in the 2025 draft.

 

[SacTownKid]

There's a lot that I agree with here. I wouldn't take that trade down scenario for #13 and #15 though because I don't think Eason will still be there at 13. A better scenario would be if we leapfrog OKC enough that we can make a two for one deal to get their #12 pick along with maybe #6 or so? OKC already has tons of prospects and future picks so they're going to want a blue chip guy like Holmgren or Banchero perhaps more than they want to double-dip here. That lottery scenario is incredibly unlikely though and reading the tea leaves a bit, I don't think Monte McNair sees this as a team that can fit two lottery picks anyway. He wants an established coach and an instant impact rookie to compliment the Fox/Mitchell/Barnes/Sabonis core group.

I'm sure I'm overthinking this myself but I honestly don't see a whole lot of separation in the prospects this year from 1 to 10. There are big differences in production vs. upside, age, body types, and skillsets but when I look at my top 10 guys I don't have an obvious answer for who is going to be better in the NBA. All of the top 4 consensus picks have big question marks (Chet - body type, Ivey - defense and ball dominance, Jabari - creating easy looks, defending quicker players, Paolo - defensive intensity and shooting). And when I look at who fits what the Kings are trying to build the best, it almost inverts my rankings compared to most mocks.

So here's what I've settled on as my draft wish list right now...

TIER 1 - IDEAL FITS

1. Bennedict Mathurin (SG/SF)
2. Keegan Murray (SF/PF)
3. Tari Eason (SF/PF)
4. Jeremy Sochan (SF/PF)
5. AJ Griffin (SF)

These guys are all long, athletic, have shown some ability to get to the basket and finish, and should be able to defend well within the context of a well-coached team concept. I'm also a little wary of AJ Griffin but I think there's enough upside there with further time to recover from his injuries to keep him in this tier. I'm really banking on Eason and Sochan improving their shooting for this ranking to make sense, but in every other way they're perfect fits for us and nobody goes into the NBA in 2022 without knowing that they need to improve as a shooter.

TIER 2 - PURE BPA PICKS

1. Chet Holmgren (C)
2. Jaden Ivey (PG/SG)
3. Jabari Smith (PF)
4. Mark Williams (C)
5. Paolo Banchero (PF)

This is the realm of boom or bust picks. As much as I like Chet Holmgren, he's going to live in the paint on defense and that means Sabonis is chasing all the small ball 4s out to the three point line. I just don't like that as a team-defining concept. Same problem with Mark Williams. Jaden Ivey is fun as hell to watch but he's basically another DeAaron Fox with most of the same strengths and weaknesses as a prospect. Jabari is an elite shooter but I don't see him as elite in any other area. Paolo lives in the mid-range and didn't impress on defense which makes him the worst possible fit for us.

I don't rate Jonny Davis or Shaedon Sharpe unless none of these players are left and even then I have reservations about the fit. I realize this is a controversial way to approach the draft -- I'm well aware of the BPA rule. But this year in particular with a new coaching staff coming in and all the pressure on Fox and Sabonis to lead this team to the playoffs next season, I'd rather feel really good about getting a solid starter who fits our team than feel marginally good that I may have drafted a star. If it doesn't work out in two years we'll be blowing it up again anyway and by then hopefully there will be a franchise player waiting for us in the 2025 draft.

Firstly, I think Sabonis can actually pull that off, but on the contrary, I think Holmgren has great switch potential. Chets length is as good on the perimeter as it is inside. His ability to guard pick and roll with his length and spacing is sneaky. Defensively he looks very similar to Anthony Davis IMO, maybe even a little better laterally.

In this draft I think there is a clear 4-5 depending on where Murray and Sharpe rank but if one of the top 4 in Ivey, Banchero, Smith, or Holmgren are at the Kings pick regardless of whether they moved up or if the players dropped (outside of like some great injury concern), any single one of them you just take and call it a day while trying not to celebrate too hard.

 

[The_Jamal]

Firstly, I think Sabonis can actually pull that off, but on the contrary, I think Holmgren has great switch potential. Chets length is as good on the perimeter as it is inside. His ability to guard pick and roll with his length and spacing is sneaky. Defensively he looks very similar to Anthony Davis IMO, maybe even a little better laterally.

In this draft I think there is a clear 4-5 depending on where Murray and Sharpe rank but if one of the top 4 in Ivey, Banchero, Smith, or Holmgren are at the Kings pick regardless of whether they moved up or if the players dropped (outside of like some great injury concern), any single one of them you just take and call it a day while trying not to celebrate too hard.

I think the only spot in this draft I'm sketchy on is 4. I like Ivey, I think he's a good prospect (although not the same tier as Morant/Fox as prospects i think), but I'm not entirely sure he's that much better than that 5-man tier 2. Especially when you factor in positional scarcity; wings and 3/4 potential guys (Murray/Griffin) are significantly harder to find than guards. Even guys like Sharpe and Davis I think have much higher defensive potential and to play down a spot at the 3. Ivey is clearly a 1/2.

 

[SacTownKid]

I think the only spot in this draft I'm sketchy on is 4. I like Ivey, I think he's a good prospect (although not the same tier as Morant/Fox as prospects i think), but I'm not entirely sure he's that much better than that 5-man tier 2. Especially when you factor in positional scarcity; wings and 3/4 potential guys (Murray/Griffin) are significantly harder to find than guards. Even guys like Sharpe and Davis I think have much higher defensive potential and to play down a spot at the 3. Ivey is clearly a 1/2.

Ivey looks very similar to Donovan Mitchell but he has a better grasp of a team system since he comes from Purdue. Which by the way, would mean he and Sabonis would click instantly from day 1 but also might make teams cautious of his PG skills since that system isn't based around the PG spot.

 

[hrdboild]

Firstly, I think Sabonis can actually pull that off, but on the contrary, I think Holmgren has great switch potential. Chets length is as good on the perimeter as it is inside. His ability to guard pick and roll with his length and spacing is sneaky. Defensively he looks very similar to Anthony Davis IMO, maybe even a little better laterally.

In this draft I think there is a clear 4-5 depending on where Murray and Sharpe rank but if one of the top 4 in Ivey, Banchero, Smith, or Holmgren are at the Kings pick regardless of whether they moved up or if the players dropped (outside of like some great injury concern), any single one of them you just take and call it a day while trying not to celebrate too hard.

I'm not taking a big in the top 5 anymore unless they've got the Dream Shake already like Embiid did. It's almost always poor value. Again, this is just my opinion but I don't want any of the consensus top 4 players for us. They're not going to look good on this roster and I don't think any of them are good enough to blow it up and build around them instead.

 

[The_Jamal]

I'm not taking a big in the top 5 anymore unless they've got the Dream Shake already like Embiid did. It's almost always poor value. Again, this is just my opinion but I don't want any of the consensus top 4 players for us. They're not going to look good on this roster and I don't think any of them are good enough to blow it up and build around them instead.

Hmm. Interesting take, but I think needs to be viewed within the context of their skill-set and if they can potentially ascend to unicorn status. Chet is a mobile rim protector that can handle, shoot and pass. Jabari was basically crafted in a lab to be a modern 4 with his shooting/athleticism and defensive potential. Paolo has defensive problems, but there's legit like 2 or 3 other guys with his handle/passing/shot creation at 6'10. It's pretty clear the modern game has influenced all these guys to develop strong guard/wing type skills.

I think the big archetype you mostly avoid are later in this draft: Duren/Kessler/Williams. All talented with some good attributes, but unless they hit like a top 1% outcome defensively, you can more or less find what they do anywhere in the NBA. You're like hoping they're Clint Capela. I can't find any of the top 3 in FA or in a trade.

 

[hrdboild]

Hmm. Interesting take, but I think needs to be viewed within the context of their skill-set and if they can potentially ascend to unicorn status. Chet is a mobile rim protector that can handle, shoot and pass. Jabari was basically crafted in a lab to be a modern 4 with his shooting/athleticism and defensive potential. Paolo has defensive problems, but there's legit like 2 or 3 other guys with his handle/shot creation at 6'10. It's pretty clear the modern game has influenced all these guys to develop strong guard/wing type skills.

I think the big archetype you mostly avoid are later in this draft: Duren/Kessler/Williams. All talented with some good attributes, but unless they hit like a top 1% outcome defensively, you can more or less find what they do anywhere in the NBA. You're like hoping they're Clint Capela. I can't find any of the top 3 in FA or in a trade.

I look at it like this...

Anthony Davis
Zion Williamson
DeAndre Ayton
James Wiseman
Marvin Bagley
Karl-Anthony Towns
Jahlil Okafor
Nerlens Noel

Or if you want to go unicorn hunting...

Kristaps Porzingis
Dragan Bender
Lauri Markkenen
Mo Bamba

Which of these "can't miss" big guy prospects from the last 10 years do you want leading your team next season? Once you get into the late lottery, sure take a chance on a big guy who can defend but outside of Embiid and possibly Evan Mobley these guys aren't getting it done without an even better guard or wing next to them. We need that even better wing about a million times more than we need to stack a supporting big next to Sabonis. And that's before we even talk about the injury risk.

 

[SacTownKid]

I look at it like this...

Anthony Davis
Zion Williamson
DeAndre Ayton
James Wiseman
Marvin Bagley
Karl-Anthony Towns
Jahlil Okafor
Nerlens Noel

Or if you want to go unicorn hunting...

Kristaps Porzingis
Dragan Bender
Lauri Markkenen
Mo Bamba

Which of these "can't miss" big guy prospects from the last 10 years do you want leading your team next season? Once you get into the late lottery, sure take a chance on a big guy who can defend but outside of Embiid and possibly Evan Mobley these guys aren't getting it done without an even better guard or wing next to them. We need that even better wing about a million times more than we need to stack a supporting big next to Sabonis. And that's before we even talk about the injury risk.

It's hard to lump them together honestly. Okafor is totally different than a player like AD. I personally think Chet is AD like, Fox/Sabonis/Chet all day, every day. If it doesn't work then you have a solid rebuild foundation.

 

[hrdboild]

It's hard to lump them together honestly. Okafor is totally different than a player like AD. I personally think Chet is AD like, Fox/Sabonis/Chet all day, every day. If it doesn't work then you have a solid rebuild foundation.

I'm just trying to make a broader point. If you're swinging for the fences, don't take a big guy. One big taken in the top 10 in the last 10 years (Embiid) has actually elevated himself to franchise player status and he still can't stay healthy enough for anyone to count his team as a true contender. I'm struggling to think of another one in the last 20 years as well. Maybe Dwight Howard for a brief window of time? I think it's time to close the book on Anthony Davis as a franchise cornerstone and it may nearly be time for Towns as well. And considering Chet would have to earn his minutes in a rotation that already includes 6 serviceable bigs in Sabonis, Jones, Queta, Holmes, Metu and Lyles -- there's just no value there.

Conversely, the only starting caliber wing on the roster is about to turn 30 and has one year left on his contract. We need a starting caliber wing who can defend like @SLAB needs a Jimmy Garoppolo trade. If we don't get one, it's quite possible nothing else that happens this off-season will matter. I don't know which wing if any in this draft will end up being a multi-year All-Star but I can guarantee that we won't find one if we don't draft a wing. There are some years where the talent gap at the top is so obvious you have to ignore fit completely but I don't see that with anyone this year. Ivey is the only guard I would maybe take over all the top wings and you'd probably need to get me drunk before I'd pull the trigger on that.

 

[SacTownKid]

I'm just trying to make a broader point. If you're swinging for the fences, don't take a big guy. One big taken in the top 10 in the last 10 years (Embiid) has actually elevated himself to franchise player status and he still can't stay healthy enough for anyone to count his team as a true contender. I'm struggling to think of another one in the last 20 years as well. Maybe Dwight Howard for a brief window of time? I think it's time to close the book on Anthony Davis as a franchise cornerstone and it may nearly be time for Towns as well. And considering Chet would have to earn his minutes in a rotation that already includes 6 serviceable bigs in Sabonis, Jones, Queta, Holmes, Metu and Lyles -- there's just no value there.

Conversely, the only starting caliber wing on the roster is about to turn 30 and has one year left on his contract. We need a starting caliber wing who can defend like @SLAB needs a Jimmy Garoppolo trade. If we don't get one, it's quite possible nothing else that happens this off-season will matter. I don't know which wing if any in this draft will end up being a multi-year All-Star but I can guarantee that we won't find one if we don't draft a wing. There are some years where the talent gap at the top is so obvious you have to ignore fit completely but I don't see that with anyone this year. Ivey is the only guard I would maybe take over all the top wings and you'd probably need to get me drunk before I'd pull the trigger on that.

But there was also a big chunk of time where the big man spot was hardly the "it" thing. And for good reason. I mean, Jae Crowder is a necessary piece in todays game, but if you ain't taking him over KAT. Jones, Queta (if he even sticks in the league), Holmes, Metu, and honestly probably Lyles are of no real concern moving forward. They are role players you can replace almost any offseason maybe with the exception of Holmes. I totally agree about the wing thing, and in this draft if the Kings stay around where they are at there are potentially as many as 4 options there so hooray!

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1524194179726942208

 

[Capt. Factorial]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1524194179726942208

Doesn't look like any high-profile guys will be skipping the combine. Last several many of the top guys haven't done the measurements, but at least they'll be there to meet with teams.

 

[funkykingston]

Doesn't look like any high-profile guys will be skipping the combine. Last several many of the top guys haven't done the measurements, but at least they'll be there to meet with teams.

I think the lack of a clear cut #1 pick will lead to more combine involvement than normal.

Not only does a #1 pick not gain anything from taking part in the combine, but it has the trickle down effect of the consensus #2 often doing the same, choosing not to work out for teams outside the top 2 etc.

This year I think Chet, Jabari, and Paolo will be strategic in what they participate in, but they'll participate more than usual.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1524416424898293768

 

[bajaden]

I like Mathurin, though I'm not as high on him as others are. But part of why I like the idea of trading back is that I'm not a fan of Griffin or Davis.

Well, let me rephrase that. I like Davis, I just think he's got limited upside. Griffin I may just need to watch more. I wasn't impressed by him at all in most games I saw.

I've had an off and on love affair with Griffin all year long, but there's one thing we do know, he can shoot the ball. He shot 44.7% from the three this season on 4.1 attempts a game. He shot just a tick under 50% overall, and 79.2% from the line. He tends to play smaller than he is which is strange. He supposedly has a very good vertical, but seldom uses it or displays it. There were times when he seemed to disappear during games, but then, with so many people needing the ball on that Duke team, it was probably by design.

However Griffin did show he could play off the ball which he would have to do if he ends up on the Kings. Davis is a different story. If you looked at his early stats, before the rest of college basketball figured out who he was, he put up terrific numbers. Mostly through Nov, Dec, and about half of January. But once they did figure that out, he couldn't touch the ball without being doubled or tripled every time. Davis wasn't just the primary ball scorer on that Wisconsin team, he was basically the only scorer. Davis is a very good passer, but you wouldn't know that by looking at his stats. He made good passes, but no one could make a basket off his passes.

Then in the last game of the Big Ten conference tournament, he injured his ankle. His coach said most players would have sat out, but he decided to play through it. So at the end, he was playing on a bad ankle on a bad team and I also think he was out of gas. He played 34 minutes a game out of 40 and had a usage rate 32.5%. That's a very high usage rate. Probably one of the highest in college last season. Even Keegan Murray who seemed like he was on the floor every minute of the game had a usage rate 29.7%

On an NBA team Davis won't be the primary scorer, he probably won't be the 2nd option either. My guess is that he'll eventually be the 3rd or 4th option on a good team. He definitely needs to improve his 3 pt shot, but he shot just a tick under 40% his Freshman year, although he didn't take many attempts. He's a very physical player and may be the most physical guard in this class. Let him get to his spot in the midrange area, and he's deadly. I think he'll be a very good NBA player.

 

[jiimbob]

If Davis is the pick i’ll be quite okay with that. Not as big on Griffin and Mathurin despite fit.
Adjustments will need to be made to the current roster but fortunately I think Monte has the savvy to work that out.
What a couple more days and we will know if any of these guys will even be in our conversation, looking forward to that.

 

[bajaden]

I'm just trying to make a broader point. If you're swinging for the fences, don't take a big guy. One big taken in the top 10 in the last 10 years (Embiid) has actually elevated himself to franchise player status and he still can't stay healthy enough for anyone to count his team as a true contender. I'm struggling to think of another one in the last 20 years as well. Maybe Dwight Howard for a brief window of time? I think it's time to close the book on Anthony Davis as a franchise cornerstone and it may nearly be time for Towns as well. And considering Chet would have to earn his minutes in a rotation that already includes 6 serviceable bigs in Sabonis, Jones, Queta, Holmes, Metu and Lyles -- there's just no value there.

Conversely, the only starting caliber wing on the roster is about to turn 30 and has one year left on his contract. We need a starting caliber wing who can defend like @SLAB needs a Jimmy Garoppolo trade. If we don't get one, it's quite possible nothing else that happens this off-season will matter. I don't know which wing if any in this draft will end up being a multi-year All-Star but I can guarantee that we won't find one if we don't draft a wing. There are some years where the talent gap at the top is so obvious you have to ignore fit completely but I don't see that with anyone this year. Ivey is the only guard I would maybe take over all the top wings and you'd probably need to get me drunk before I'd pull the trigger on that.

I think your severely understating Holmgren's abilities. To lump him in with all the other bigs does him a huge disservice. I think that from the moment he walks on the floor he'll be the best shotblocker, and shot changer on the team, and eventually one of the best in the NBA. He's a good three point shooter and has the handles of a SF. He's a good passer. He's the most different big man that I think I personally ever scouted. I only have one worry, and that's injury because of his slight build. But this season, he went right into the teeth of the defense and banged with the big boys. He's tough and plays with an edge.

Sabonis is a good positional post defender, but he's not a great rim defender. Holmgren is, in spades, and that's exactly the kind of player Sabonis needs playing next to him. Someone who can come over and help in the post, and intimidate the opposition, but also someone who can step out and spread the floor. Holmgren is someone you could run the offense through in the high post. If were lucky enough to get him, I think he starts from day one. He's my 2nd choice though. I'm still going with Jabari Smith as my 1st choice.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1526054643243024385

 

[hrdboild]

I think your severely understating Holmgren's abilities. To lump him in with all the other bigs does him a huge disservice. I think that from the moment he walks on the floor he'll be the best shotblocker, and shot changer on the team, and eventually one of the best in the NBA. He's a good three point shooter and has the handles of a SF. He's a good passer. He's the most different big man that I think I personally ever scouted. I only have one worry, and that's injury because of his slight build. But this season, he went right into the teeth of the defense and banged with the big boys. He's tough and plays with an edge.

Sabonis is a good positional post defender, but he's not a great rim defender. Holmgren is, in spades, and that's exactly the kind of player Sabonis needs playing next to him. Someone who can come over and help in the post, and intimidate the opposition, but also someone who can step out and spread the floor. Holmgren is someone you could run the offense through in the high post. If were lucky enough to get him, I think he starts from day one. He's my 2nd choice though. I'm still going with Jabari Smith as my 1st choice.

I would have taken Greg Oden over Durant. I was all-in on Nerlens Noel. I thought Ayton had a chance to be a superstar. I believed the Mo Bamba hype. I thought Cousins was going to be a better pro than John Wall. Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson looked like generational talents in college to me. I've just got big man fatigue at this point. I agree that Holmgren is special, not just physically but in the way he reads the floor and reacts as a defender and his fearlessness on offense. But I also can't ignore all that past history. I'll hope for the best if he's our pick but there's 5 wing players who I'd rather take and that's not meant as a criticism of his talent - - it's a reaction to the way the NBA has changed.

It's possible another seismic shift is coming. Some people will point to Embiid and Jokic as evidence that the return of the big man is upon us but neither of them has led their team to a Finals series yet. This is the era of the step-back three and that means the most valuable players on the floor are the ones who can shoot them and the ones who can defend them. I can't envision any context where this Kings team is successful next season without adding a two-way wing player and this year's draft looks like our best (only?) opportunity to do that.

 

[Kingster]

I think your severely understating Holmgren's abilities. To lump him in with all the other bigs does him a huge disservice. I think that from the moment he walks on the floor he'll be the best shotblocker, and shot changer on the team, and eventually one of the best in the NBA. He's a good three point shooter and has the handles of a SF. He's a good passer. He's the most different big man that I think I personally ever scouted. I only have one worry, and that's injury because of his slight build. But this season, he went right into the teeth of the defense and banged with the big boys. He's tough and plays with an edge.

Sabonis is a good positional post defender, but he's not a great rim defender. Holmgren is, in spades, and that's exactly the kind of player Sabonis needs playing next to him. Someone who can come over and help in the post, and intimidate the opposition, but also someone who can step out and spread the floor. Holmgren is someone you could run the offense through in the high post. If were lucky enough to get him, I think he starts from day one. He's my 2nd choice though. I'm still going with Jabari Smith as my 1st choice.

So here's my physics question on Holmgren. Can a player of two dimensions play in a league in which everyone else is three dimensions? Personally, I think he's an ET that transported himself to three-dimensional earth through a worm hole. Wouldn't surprise me if you see an NBA player literally step through him like a hologram, maybe to an alternate reality.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1526327309409701889

Dude probably would’ve been better served staying for another year but hope it’s works out for him.

 

[Telemachus]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1526327309409701889

Dude probably would’ve been better served staying for another year but hope it’s works out for him.

I'm guessing he got a promise from someone.

 

[midtowner]

I would have taken Greg Oden over Durant. I was all-in on Nerlens Noel. I thought Ayton had a chance to be a superstar. I believed the Mo Bamba hype. I thought Cousins was going to be a better pro than John Wall. Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson looked like generational talents in college to me. I've just got big man fatigue at this point. I agree that Holmgren is special, not just physically but in the way he reads the floor and reacts as a defender and his fearlessness on offense. But I also can't ignore all that past history. I'll hope for the best if he's our pick but there's 5 wing players who I'd rather take and that's not meant as a criticism of his talent - - it's a reaction to the way the NBA has changed.

It's possible another seismic shift is coming. Some people will point to Embiid and Jokic as evidence that the return of the big man is upon us but neither of them has led their team to a Finals series yet. This is the era of the step-back three and that means the most valuable players on the floor are the ones who can shoot them and the ones who can defend them. I can't envision any context where this Kings team is successful next season without adding a two-way wing player and this year's draft looks like our best (only?) opportunity to do that.

I hear you. But I also think Holmgren might really be a big wing that can protect the rim. Hitting a step-back over that dude would be pretty tough. I could also be totally wrong and he is a skinny, injury prone big not worth a top pick.

Seeing centers get played out of the game in these playoffs has been eye opening. I wouldn’t take Gobert on the King’s roster if they gave him to us for free.