Looking ahead to the 2022 Draft
- Thread starter Tetsujin
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Swapping Tyrese Haliburton for Domantas Sabonis, the Kings could very well be in the market for an upgrade on the perimeter, especially at the shooting guard position. Enter Davis, who brings many of the winning intangibles the Kings should be looking for with his defensive versatility, unselfishness and ability to score with or without the ball. Davis would fit well alongside either De'Aaron Fox or Davion Mitchell and could even see some minutes alongside the two thanks to the toughness he offers. The Kings' pathway back to contention, or even making the playoffs, isn't perfectly clear at this stage, but nailing their coaching hire and this draft pick would go a long way in helping them return to respectability
BTW, Espn does have free draft coverage in their "Best Available" tab under the NBA Draft section. I've noticed that they'll usually include the paywall stuff as updates for individual player profiles.. It's super detailed, you just have to click on the drop down arrow for each player.
https://www.espn.com/nba/draft/bestavailable
https://www.espn.com/nba/draft/bestavailable
There's no way to know of course, but drafting either Shaedon Sharpe or Johnny Davis would be a mistake in my opinion. Sharpe is way too big of a risk. He's got tons of potential but can he defend in the NBA? Can he shoot a high efficiency of outside jumpers off catch and shoots? Can he get to the basket against NBA level competition? We don't even know if he can do any of that against NCAA competition. I'd rather someone else gambled on him. And Johnny Davis just feels duplicative of what we already have with Donte. He's not a shooter, he's a shot maker who likes to create off the dribble and that kind of player is more likely to get in the way than help on offense based on what we saw last season.
Order of preference for us should be:
(1) Can we get a SG/SF or SF/PF who can reliably catch and shoot and defend taller wings? (Mathurin/Murray/Griffin)
(2) Can we at least get a plus defender at any position? (Eason/Sochan)
(3) Failing that, just take the best talent available and hope for the best.
Order of preference for us should be:
(1) Can we get a SG/SF or SF/PF who can reliably catch and shoot and defend taller wings? (Mathurin/Murray/Griffin)
(2) Can we at least get a plus defender at any position? (Eason/Sochan)
(3) Failing that, just take the best talent available and hope for the best.
Unless scouts have seen Sharpe play against NBA players in some summer pick-up games, I don't see how you judge him. Even then, you probably have very little indication of BBIQ or toughness. He's a true "black box," imo. The talk is that he won't even work out for teams not in the top five. Ok by me.
The thing is that Davis is probably the best perimeter defender in that 4-9 range (unless you think Eason or Daniels slip into the top ten somehow) just going off the tape. The guy’s offense got all the accolades (until he sprained his ankle) but his defense was probably even better throughout the season.
Benn has the tools but hasn’t been particularly great on that end throughout college, Keegan is slid on the perimeter but shines the most helping off the weak side, AJ really struggled on defense throughout the season and moved like his feet were glued to the floor. Jaden Ivey was a worse college defender than Ja or Fox.
Shaedon Sharpe has the best physical tools to become an elite defender (Mikal Bridges length with the low center of gravity of a RonRon) but definitely did not show off any skills on that side of the court in the scant film I’ve seen of him. Of course, Anthony Edwards had similar issues and is now probably the second best defender on the T-Wolves so sometimes prospects can put it together on that end.
All in all though, while none of the top ten guys besides Ivey is really what you would call a bad defender, the only ones you can really call good are Johnny Davis, Chet, and Jabari.
Benn has the tools but hasn’t been particularly great on that end throughout college, Keegan is slid on the perimeter but shines the most helping off the weak side, AJ really struggled on defense throughout the season and moved like his feet were glued to the floor. Jaden Ivey was a worse college defender than Ja or Fox.
Shaedon Sharpe has the best physical tools to become an elite defender (Mikal Bridges length with the low center of gravity of a RonRon) but definitely did not show off any skills on that side of the court in the scant film I’ve seen of him. Of course, Anthony Edwards had similar issues and is now probably the second best defender on the T-Wolves so sometimes prospects can put it together on that end.
All in all though, while none of the top ten guys besides Ivey is really what you would call a bad defender, the only ones you can really call good are Johnny Davis, Chet, and Jabari.
I don’t know what you aren’t seeing that literally every single draft pundit appears to be seeing but that’s part of what makes the draft process fun. I think Jabari has Paul George potential on that end with a bit more backside shotblocking potential. The guy’s just completely switchable 5 to 1 with a frame that can easily add another 20 pounds or so. But I could be wrong.
I haven't watched their games exhaustively, but I'm not sure Davis and Smith are going to get the same results on the defensive end when they go to the NBA. Davis gambles too much for my taste. He'll have big steals but he's also vulnerable to playing himself out of position. Smith is very active but he tends to play a step back and uses his long arms to poke at the ball which is almost always a foul in the NBA. I'm not saying they'll be poor defenders -- just that when I look at them through an NBA lens, I can see reasons why they might struggle on that end, at least initially.
When we were talking about Davion Mitchell last year a lot of people considered him too small to effectively guard wing players but the way he plays defense is very hard to exploit. He gets right into the offensive player and doesn't allow them room to freely execute dribble moves or get off a clean shot. Some of the worst defenders in the NBA have physical tools for days but they don't have the discipline or the mentality to effectively utilize them like Mitchell does.
There has been a big emphasis placed on length and positional flexibility on defense recently but I see that as a fundamental misunderstanding of what works and what doesn't work in the NBA. It's great in theory to always have help one step away but what tends to happen in actual practice is that those long rangy defenders get lost in space and remain one step away while smaller, quicker guards like Steph or Trey are draining a three over them.
When we were talking about Davion Mitchell last year a lot of people considered him too small to effectively guard wing players but the way he plays defense is very hard to exploit. He gets right into the offensive player and doesn't allow them room to freely execute dribble moves or get off a clean shot. Some of the worst defenders in the NBA have physical tools for days but they don't have the discipline or the mentality to effectively utilize them like Mitchell does.
There has been a big emphasis placed on length and positional flexibility on defense recently but I see that as a fundamental misunderstanding of what works and what doesn't work in the NBA. It's great in theory to always have help one step away but what tends to happen in actual practice is that those long rangy defenders get lost in space and remain one step away while smaller, quicker guards like Steph or Trey are draining a three over them.
There are some things that Jabari can learn that can help him become a better defender, but he's already a very good defender. Can he be taken off the dribble by the other teams PG at times? Sure, but when did the measuring stick for a 6'10" PF become being able to guard the likes of Lillard or Fox? I watched Jabari play over 20 times and he usually got one of the toughest defensive assignments. If I was to correct something it would be his over wide defensive stance, which I thinks hurts his lateral quickness, but other than that, I can't argue with the overall results. His opponents only shot 25% against him.
Sharpe should be just fine as a need too though? From what I understand, he profiles as a 2/3 wing with a great shot, great athleticism that can create his own shot. Sounds just fine to me next to Fox/Sabonis. 6'6 with a 7'0 wingspan is more than fine to check basically every 3 in the game as well.
Ivey honestly is like the only guy in the top 9 prospects where I'm a little sketchy on his fit. Even still, 6'4 with a huge wingspan and amazing athleticism is just fine at the 2 as well. But not the best fit with an inconsistent shot/defense.
Ivey honestly is like the only guy in the top 9 prospects where I'm a little sketchy on his fit. Even still, 6'4 with a huge wingspan and amazing athleticism is just fine at the 2 as well. But not the best fit with an inconsistent shot/defense.
I’m starting to feel like he is the guy we should draft if we are at 7 (assuming he is still there). One of his positive traits according to Coach Spins is he excels as a off the ball player. Does well with cutting etc. We don’t have many players that move well without the ball and we need them to maximize the ox.
Yeah, I think the only way to actually screw this up is deviate from those top 9 (Chet, Jabari, Paolo, Ivey and the tier 2 (Davis, Griffin, Mathurin, Sharpe, Murray) if we're picking in the top 8. If it's a trade back, I'd be more open to TyTy/Duren, but still think we could find some more interesting prospects like Sochan, Agbaji, Liddell, etc.
What do you think the frequency of "busts" there have been for the consensus top nine of say the last 10 drafts? Twenty-five percent? Thirty?
I started with the 2020 draft because you have to give all these guys at least two years to see what the deal is, and then looked three years prior:
https://www.nba.com/news/2020-nba-draft-results-picks-1-60
https://www.nba.com/news/2019-nba-draft-results-picks-1-60
https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/history/?Season=2018
There are the well known players like Zion, who I think is a bust. I don't ever think he's going to have the health to play on a consistent basis. Then of course there is a Bagley and Mo Bamba and Wiseman (Sorry, Warriors fans, but his value is extremely low). There are others. Frankly, I couldn't even recall seeing some of these guys. Patrick Williams of the Bulls, for example: Averaged 9 points and 4 rebs this past year. The guy was picked 4th in the 2020 draft. Yikes. The question for this draft is not just who is going to be very good, but who are going to be the busts in that top nine you are talking about.
I started with the 2020 draft because you have to give all these guys at least two years to see what the deal is, and then looked three years prior:
https://www.nba.com/news/2020-nba-draft-results-picks-1-60
https://www.nba.com/news/2019-nba-draft-results-picks-1-60
https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/history/?Season=2018
There are the well known players like Zion, who I think is a bust. I don't ever think he's going to have the health to play on a consistent basis. Then of course there is a Bagley and Mo Bamba and Wiseman (Sorry, Warriors fans, but his value is extremely low). There are others. Frankly, I couldn't even recall seeing some of these guys. Patrick Williams of the Bulls, for example: Averaged 9 points and 4 rebs this past year. The guy was picked 4th in the 2020 draft. Yikes. The question for this draft is not just who is going to be very good, but who are going to be the busts in that top nine you are talking about.
It's draft hype Bingo! .... wingspan.... tools ... can handle the ball ... drive in a straight line... has a good feel ... grew up playing PG ... a great frame....
This one paragraph is the verse, chorus, and middle 8 of internet draft analysis. I have no idea if he's right or not but I'm pretty sure these descriptions could be applied to like 80% of the players ever drafted into the NBA.
This one paragraph is the verse, chorus, and middle 8 of internet draft analysis. I have no idea if he's right or not but I'm pretty sure these descriptions could be applied to like 80% of the players ever drafted into the NBA.
It's draft hype Bingo! .... wingspan.... tools ... can handle the ball ... drive in a straight line... has a good feel ... grew up playing PG ... a great frame....
This one paragraph is the verse, chorus, and middle 8 of internet draft analysis. I have no idea if he's right or not but I'm pretty sure these descriptions could be applied to like 80% of the players ever drafted into the NBA.
This one paragraph is the verse, chorus, and middle 8 of internet draft analysis. I have no idea if he's right or not but I'm pretty sure these descriptions could be applied to like 80% of the players ever drafted into the NBA.
Bust is a weird concept within the lottery, especially high lotto picks. Sure you have an outright bad pick in a deep draft like Bagley and Darko. You have consensus #1s who get injured and never pan out like Oden and more and more likely Zion.
But then you have bad drafts, like the time the Kings got #1. I think this year is shaping up to be more like a 2013 or 2000 when the #1 pick and #4 pick could wind up being just as likely to be good/bad and the impact players are likely to be scattered like a random dart throw.
But then you have bad drafts, like the time the Kings got #1. I think this year is shaping up to be more like a 2013 or 2000 when the #1 pick and #4 pick could wind up being just as likely to be good/bad and the impact players are likely to be scattered like a random dart throw.
If the Kings stay at 7 and the top of the draft goes chalk, I'd call the Hornets about trading #7 for #13 & #15.
I think Duren is likely the BPA at #7 and he's much more of an ideal fit with LaMelo Ball and a bad Charlotte defense than with the Kings and Sabonis. He's a year and a half younger than Holmgren with elite tools and will be a vertical lob threat from day 1. I think the Hornets would take that deal.
And with #13 & #15 I'd be looking at a combo like Tari Eason and Malaki Branham.
I think Duren is likely the BPA at #7 and he's much more of an ideal fit with LaMelo Ball and a bad Charlotte defense than with the Kings and Sabonis. He's a year and a half younger than Holmgren with elite tools and will be a vertical lob threat from day 1. I think the Hornets would take that deal.
And with #13 & #15 I'd be looking at a combo like Tari Eason and Malaki Branham.
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