Possible lottery picks in the 2022 draft:

[ESP47]

To me the more immediate concern with Holmgren isn't whether he'll put on weight - it's whether he's able to defend on the perimeter without getting destroyed.

I don't know that he'll ever be a full time center, but it's very likely that his rookie year he's going to play the four spot next to a traditional center the same way Mobley is being used by Cleveland.

That's the kicker. He has to be a center because he's not like Mobley. I know we all tend to try and plug these guys into where it seems like they would work the best but most players aren't versatile like that. You may find yourself back in the Bagley situation where he just can't fit in any position correctly because of this reason or that reason.

I'd still take the gamble on him at 4 but I wouldn't pick him over Jabari, Paolo and Ivey.

 

[funkykingston]

That's the kicker. He has to be a center because he's not like Mobley. I know we all tend to try and plug these guys into where it seems like they would work the best but most players aren't versatile like that. You may find yourself back in the Bagley situation where he just can't fit in any position correctly because of this reason or that reason.

I'd still take the gamble on him at 4 but I wouldn't pick him over Jabari, Paolo and Ivey.

As prospects go, Holmgren is one of the weirdest ones I've ever tried to project.

As long as he stays healthy I think the chances of him being a complete bust are pretty low. His size and shotblocking alone should keep him in the NBA but I have no idea how good or bad he'll be on the next level. I'm not as high on Banchero as most, but it's definitely easier to envision his role in the pros. And Jabari Smith Jr fits in on pretty much any team. I like Ivey a lot. Even if the Kings still have Fox, Haliburton, and Mitchell on the roster I think you have to take him if he's on the board and figure it out later.

 

[hrdboild]

I know the last thing we need is another PG but I'd have a hard time passing on Ivey even at #1. He seems like the best bet to be a star in this draft to me. There's some risk with Holmgren but he's got baseline skills that usually translate. If there's no injury concerns he should be a lock for the top 4 but where in the top 4 i very much an eye of the beholder thing. I could get talked into him as first overall too. Smith and Banchero feel like they'll be good players who hover on the periphery of All Star recognition year to year to me. I still take them top 4 right now unless/until someone else impresses me more but I'm really not very high on most of the lottery prospects this year.

 

[funkykingston]

I know the last thing we need is another PG but I'd have a hard time passing on Ivey even at #1. He seems like the best bet to be a star in this draft to me. There's some risk with Holmgren but he's got baseline skills that usually translate. If there's no injury concerns he should be a lock for the top 4 but where in the top 4 i very much an eye of the beholder thing. I could get talked into him as first overall too. Smith and Banchero feel like they'll be good players who hover on the periphery of All Star recognition year to year to me. I still take them top 4 right now unless/until someone else impresses me more but I'm really not very high on most of the lottery prospects this year.

It's always hard to objectively compare previous draft classes with an upcoming one since we know how previous classes are currently faring in the NBA, but I can say for certain that I would have had Mobley and Cunningham above anyone in this draft class, and probably in their own tier at the top of the draft.

I'm just not sure that Smith Jr, Banchero, or Holmgren are the types of talents that can really transform a franchise.But I agree that Ivey might be that type of player.

That's not to say I don't like those three, or that I don't think they have a chance to be really good, I'm just not sure they're superstars. I'm not as high on him as others, but Banchero probably has the best chance of hitting that elite level, especially if he develops more as a playmaker. There's also a chance that he's a volume scorer who doesn't contribute as much as he could to winning. We'll see. Jabari would really need to improve his handle and ability to create his own shot beyond his current repertoire of fakes and jab steps. I think he'll be a productive stretch 4 regardless, but how much he improves his individual creation will likely determine his ultimate ceiling. Holmgren, even if he gets bigger/stronger and his skills translate to the next level will likely not be the best player on a good team. I don't know that he'll ever be a go to scorer but he could potentially contribute in a multitude of ways: blocking shots, stretching the floor, initiating the offense from the high post, scoring inside, rebounding etc. But shotblocking is really his only elite skill. Everything else he does currently is a bit amazing because of his size, but it remains to be seen how much of it translates. So much of his high school highlights were him handling and attacking the basket like a guard, but so far at Gonzaga he's really played much more of a traditional big role, beyond the occasional coast-to-coast baskets.

All that to say, I could see any of those guys being good, but it's much easier to see how Ivey could become great. It doesn't mean he will, but the path to being a franchise player seems much more obvious for him than the others. And honestly, I think he'd pair well with Haliburton.

 

[hrdboild]

It's always hard to objectively compare previous draft classes since we know how previous classes are currently faring in the NBA, but I can say for certain that I would have had Mobley and Cunningham above anyone in this draft class, and probably in their own tier at the top of the draft.

I'm just not sure that Smith Jr, Banchero, or Holmgren are the types of talents that can really transform a franchise.But I agree that Ivey might be that type of player.

That's not to say I don't like those three, or that I don't think they have a chance to be really good, I'm just not sure they're superstars. I'm not as high on him as others, but Banchero probably has the best chance of hitting that elite level, especially if he develops more as a playmaker. There's also a chance that he's a volume scorer who doesn't contribute as much as he could to winning. We'll see. Jabari would really need to improve his handle and ability to create his own shot beyond his current repertoire of fakes and jab steps. I think he'll be a productive stretch 4 regardless, but how much he improves his individual creation will likely determine his ultimate ceiling. Holmgren, even if he gets bigger/stronger and his skills translate to the next level will likely not be the best player on a good team. I don't know that he'll ever be a go to scorer but he could potentially contribute in a multitude of ways: blocking shots, stretching the floor, initiating the offense from the high post, scoring inside, rebounding etc. But shotblocking is really his only elite skill. Everything else he does currently is a bit amazing because of his size, but it remains to be seen how much of it translates. So much of his high school highlights were him handling and attacking the basket like a guard, but so far at Gonzaga he's really played much more of a traditional big role, beyond the occasional coast-to-coast baskets.

All that to say, I could see any of those guys being good, but it's much easier to see how Ivey could become great. It doesn't mean he will, but the path to being a franchise player seems much more obvious for him than the others. And honestly, I think he'd pair well with Haliburton.

Yeah, I think our impressions are very similar about the top 4 this year. For me they're very early first impressions, I need to watch more games for everyone, but that's what I've seen so far. Perhaps Banchero could explode as a star if he really works on his shot creation skills since he has an ideal frame for a wing scorer but I could also see him going the other way and being more in the Mike Beasley mold of a player who thrives in college mostly because of physical dominance and has a hard time adjusting to the NBA. This is not a year I would pick to tank if I had a choice, but there's usually a surprise star hidden somewhere outside of the top 5 too for at least one lucky franchise.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I liked this post before you edited it to say that.

I'm in late.
You know what I see and can't unsee here. Duke. Duke Duke Duke Duke.
Lucky for Chet and Gonzaga they don't have the horrific track record that steers me clear and everyone knew Morrison was a reach.

 

[bajaden]

It seems to me that it's a different kind of "skinny", but hey, I could be wrong. Still, I don't think saying "probably gotta take him between 3-5 right now" is exactly circling the wagons.

LOL! Good point! And you could be right about the NBA physicality being too much for him. I've just been amazed at his overall improvement as the season has gone on. He has his 3 pt shot up to up to 46.3% and he's grabbing almost 10 boards a game despite his frail looking physic. My gut tells me he's going to surprise us all. Could be wrong..... I'm curious, what do you think of Jeremy Sochan, the other SF for Baylor. I currently have him ranked a little ahead of Kendall Brown. Frankly, right now, he's bringing more to the table than Brown. Anyway, I'm curious what you think of him?

 

[bajaden]

I know the last thing we need is another PG but I'd have a hard time passing on Ivey even at #1. He seems like the best bet to be a star in this draft to me. There's some risk with Holmgren but he's got baseline skills that usually translate. If there's no injury concerns he should be a lock for the top 4 but where in the top 4 i very much an eye of the beholder thing. I could get talked into him as first overall too. Smith and Banchero feel like they'll be good players who hover on the periphery of All Star recognition year to year to me. I still take them top 4 right now unless/until someone else impresses me more but I'm really not very high on most of the lottery prospects this year.

I think Ivey is more of a combo guard than a pure PG. He plays off the ball just as well as on the ball, so you could draft him and plug him in at SG next to Haliburton, and he would fit just fine. He has star potential written all over him, so I agree with those, that if were sitting at five, and he's there, you almost have to take him. Although I really, really like A.J. Griffin.

 

[bajaden]

It's always hard to objectively compare previous draft classes with an upcoming one since we know how previous classes are currently faring in the NBA, but I can say for certain that I would have had Mobley and Cunningham above anyone in this draft class, and probably in their own tier at the top of the draft.

I'm just not sure that Smith Jr, Banchero, or Holmgren are the types of talents that can really transform a franchise.But I agree that Ivey might be that type of player.

That's not to say I don't like those three, or that I don't think they have a chance to be really good, I'm just not sure they're superstars. I'm not as high on him as others, but Banchero probably has the best chance of hitting that elite level, especially if he develops more as a playmaker. There's also a chance that he's a volume scorer who doesn't contribute as much as he could to winning. We'll see. Jabari would really need to improve his handle and ability to create his own shot beyond his current repertoire of fakes and jab steps. I think he'll be a productive stretch 4 regardless, but how much he improves his individual creation will likely determine his ultimate ceiling. Holmgren, even if he gets bigger/stronger and his skills translate to the next level will likely not be the best player on a good team. I don't know that he'll ever be a go to scorer but he could potentially contribute in a multitude of ways: blocking shots, stretching the floor, initiating the offense from the high post, scoring inside, rebounding etc. But shotblocking is really his only elite skill. Everything else he does currently is a bit amazing because of his size, but it remains to be seen how much of it translates. So much of his high school highlights were him handling and attacking the basket like a guard, but so far at Gonzaga he's really played much more of a traditional big role, beyond the occasional coast-to-coast baskets.

All that to say, I could see any of those guys being good, but it's much easier to see how Ivey could become great. It doesn't mean he will, but the path to being a franchise player seems much more obvious for him than the others. And honestly, I think he'd pair well with Haliburton.

It's always an educated guess when predicting the future of any player, but I would put money on Smith as well as Ivey. I've done a lot of research on Smith, which I'll go into in a different thread. But in short, his work ethic is off the charts. He's a very dedicated player who wants to be great. When you mix natural talent with extremely hard work, you almost always get special results.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I'm curious, what do you think of Jeremy Sochan, the other SF for Baylor. I currently have him ranked a little ahead of Kendall Brown. Frankly, right now, he's bringing more to the table than Brown. Anyway, I'm curious what you think of him?

I actually haven't seen enough of Sochan, either he was out for a couple of Baylor games I watched or I was so focused on Brown I didn't notice him, don't know which. Saw a decent bit of him in the Kansas game, which was a total disaster for Baylor and thus shouldn't count for much, so I'll have to take another look. I will say that I have not been impressed by Kendall Brown as of yet. Body and athleticism is there, but that's about it. If he can't become a go-to offensive player on Baylor by the end of the season I'd hope he'll stick around for his sophomore year.

 

[The_Jamal]

I know the last thing we need is another PG but I'd have a hard time passing on Ivey even at #1. He seems like the best bet to be a star in this draft to me. There's some risk with Holmgren but he's got baseline skills that usually translate. If there's no injury concerns he should be a lock for the top 4 but where in the top 4 i very much an eye of the beholder thing. I could get talked into him as first overall too. Smith and Banchero feel like they'll be good players who hover on the periphery of All Star recognition year to year to me. I still take them top 4 right now unless/until someone else impresses me more but I'm really not very high on most of the lottery prospects this year.

You go until you have the top 10-15 player. Positions/fit don't matter until then.

And look how we're kind of viewing Fox now with Davion starting to really settle into the starting role and look like a great compliment to Hali handling the keys. Not that Fox is expendable or anything, but I think most fans would be pretty ok with a Hali/Mitchell-Sabonis/Ingram type of core.

Totally agree on the Ivey love though. His game is just so translatable to star stuff and he just looks like the next evolution of Russ/Fox in terms of having the bonkers athleticism/energy, but understands how to shift gears and use that athleticism in creative ways with his scoring/shooting. What's great is I think he's shown better defensive traits/skills early on than a lot of the recent high lotto pick guards.

I just don't know if I could take him ahead of Holmgren or Banchero though. If Ivey is my #2 BPA and a 92 (still not sure how to rank the 2-4) then Banchero/Holmgren would be literally right behind him at like 90-91. I'm probably higher on them than you are though, so i'd understand just taking Ivey if you think they're in a different class of upside.

 

[The_Jamal]

Welp, we can probably say goodbye to any of the top 5 Was fun to discuss for a minute.

 

[ESP47]

Welp, we can probably say goodbye to any of the top 5 Was fun to discuss for a minute.

I think we're still going to suck but will probably wind up 8th with other teams outsmarting us and getting worse so they can get a higher pick.

 

[ridingagain]

Welp, we can probably say goodbye to any of the top 5 Was fun to discuss for a minute.

Based on the trade reaction from many on this board, sounds like we are now positioned to lose every remaining game and get the top pick

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1491420815925313538

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1491157482169057283

Oh no, not me getting irrationally excited about a highlight package of Jovic hitting pull-up threes and slinging passes at 11:30 at night

 

[serbiangoat]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1491157482169057283

Oh no, not me getting irrationally excited about a highlight package of Jovic hitting pull-up threes and slinging passes at 11:30 at night

He's so hard for me to gage where he will end up as a player, I know one thing for certain he will be a legit NBA wing playing 25-35mins a game, the closest comparison is Gallaneri or BEST case Peja type with elite passing a decent case would be Joe Inglis . He's clearly pulled away as the best prospect in the L with the Polish guy after the first 8 games falling of the face of the earth and Roko playing awful than getting hurt. I will do an update on all the Meg Leks prospects soon. Also if you watching the full games Nikola Durasic will 100% be a lottery pick in 2023.

My hope with Jovic is his game translating better to the NBA with more space/freedom to operate and where his herky jerky style (rather than the fluidity you see in most NBA players) which is not a rare thing in the ABA works for him, because he still is not beating anyone off the dribble in the ABA.

 

[hrdboild]

It's always an educated guess when predicting the future of any player, but I would put money on Smith as well as Ivey. I've done a lot of research on Smith, which I'll go into in a different thread. But in short, his work ethic is off the charts. He's a very dedicated player who wants to be great. When you mix natural talent with extremely hard work, you almost always get special results.

There's still a lot of season left for the King to play themselves out of range for a top 5 pick, but with the recent trades refocusing the roster around a Fox/Barnes/Sabonis trio suddenly Jabari Smith looks like a perfect fit. His shot creation skills don't scream star to me but as a smart player who understands spacing and has the shooting touch to finish plays anywhere in the half court he's exactly the type of player we should be looking for to fit that other forward position. And his length and tenacity on defense would help us as well. It seems more likely we'll be picking in the late lottery, but who knows. Maybe we'll get lucky.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1492564842401697801

If this becomes a consistent part of Jabari's game, it's game over.

 

[The_Jamal]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1492564842401697801

If this becomes a consistent part of Jabari's game, it's game over.

Can the basketball gods just grant us karma one time? It's like Jabari Smith was specifically crafted to play with our current core.

 

[bajaden]

There's still a lot of season left for the King to play themselves out of range for a top 5 pick, but with the recent trades refocusing the roster around a Fox/Barnes/Sabonis trio suddenly Jabari Smith looks like a perfect fit. His shot creation skills don't scream star to me but as a smart player who understands spacing and has the shooting touch to finish plays anywhere in the half court he's exactly the type of player we should be looking for to fit that other forward position. And his length and tenacity on defense would help us as well. It seems more likely we'll be picking in the late lottery, but who knows. Maybe we'll get lucky.

Remember that Smith is only 18 yr's old, and won't turn 19 until this coming May. He has plenty of time to work on his shot creation skills. And as I said, he has a terrific work ethic, so I have no doubt that in a couple of years, he'll be a much better player than he is now. If he was on a team that had a guard like Haliburton he would be averaging 25 pt's a game. There was a recent game where both of the guards on Auburn individually took more shots than Smith and Kessler combined.

So when people look at Smith's stats, bear in mind he can't do much in the scoring dept if he doesn't touch the ball. I might add also that Smith isn't a ball stopper, and there are times when I wish he was.

 

[ESP47]

nbadraft.net has Keegan Murray going 11th. Think he'll actually drop that far? He kind of reminds me of Barnes a bit without the elite outside shot but certainly doesn't have a broken shot by any means. I don't think he'll carry his current 37% to the NBA and his assist rate is a bit worrisome but his 2pt% is elite for a player his size with his usage.

How is his lateral quickness? The defensive highlights I've seen have normally shown him picking off passes and taking them to the house but they don't normally show how he reacts to other players off the dribble.

 

[bajaden]

nbadraft.net has Keegan Murray going 11th. Think he'll actually drop that far? He kind of reminds me of Barnes a bit without the elite outside shot but certainly doesn't have a broken shot by any means. I don't think he'll carry his current 37% to the NBA and his assist rate is a bit worrisome but his 2pt% is elite for a player his size with his usage.

How is his lateral quickness? The defensive highlights I've seen have normally shown him picking off passes and taking them to the house but they don't normally show how he reacts to other players off the dribble.

Murray is a good defender and has good lateral quickness. Defense is one of his strengths. If not, I wouldn't have him as high as I do on my list. The form on his outside jumpshot is pretty good. I think once in the NBA, and after he adjusts to the speed of the game, he'll turn himself into a good enough 3 pt shooter that you'll have to guard him. He's similar to Barnes in that he can play both SF and PF. Like any rookie, there are things he needs to work on, but he's another with a good work ethic, and, most importantly, he has very good basketball IQ.

 

[bajaden]

I caught the Wisconsin/Indiana game yesterday. Johnny Davis didn't score a basket until almost the end of the first half, like 2 or 3 minutes left in the half. However, in the 2nd half, he hauled his team up onto his shoulders and singlehandedly carried them to a victory. He ended up with 30 pt's and 12 rebounds to go along with one steal and one block. Davis is one tough hombre! He's not always pretty, but he's a winner. He has intangibles that don't show up in stat sheets. I'd take him on my team any day!

 

[iowamcnabb]

nbadraft.net has Keegan Murray going 11th. Think he'll actually drop that far? He kind of reminds me of Barnes a bit without the elite outside shot but certainly doesn't have a broken shot by any means. I don't think he'll carry his current 37% to the NBA and his assist rate is a bit worrisome but his 2pt% is elite for a player his size with his usage.

How is his lateral quickness? The defensive highlights I've seen have normally shown him picking off passes and taking them to the house but they don't normally show how he reacts to other players off the dribble.

part of another perspective from Sam V

“On top of that, he’s proven to be a pretty good 3-point shooter at around 37 percent. He finishes above the rim, has a good in-between game and makes defensive action plays. To me, there’s a lot of Tobias Harris in what Murray does, and I mean that in a good way. Defensively, scouts do worry about what to do with him in terms of versatility. He’s a bit too slow-footed to defend ones and twos consistently but not quite strong enough to deal with fives. But he knows what he’s doing in a team construct and should, at least, be able to create transition opportunities with action plays. I’d expect Murray to hear his name called in the No. 5 to 12 region on draft night.”

 

[ESP47]

part of another perspective from Sam V

“On top of that, he’s proven to be a pretty good 3-point shooter at around 37 percent. He finishes above the rim, has a good in-between game and makes defensive action plays. To me, there’s a lot of Tobias Harris in what Murray does, and I mean that in a good way. Defensively, scouts do worry about what to do with him in terms of versatility. He’s a bit too slow-footed to defend ones and twos consistently but not quite strong enough to deal with fives. But he knows what he’s doing in a team construct and should, at least, be able to create transition opportunities with action plays. I’d expect Murray to hear his name called in the No. 5 to 12 region on draft night.”

I see about the same thing myself but I feel like if he's available when the Kings are up and there are no other no brainer players left on the board, then they've gotta take him based on potential alone.

 

[kb02]

nbadraft.net has Keegan Murray going 11th. Think he'll actually drop that far? He kind of reminds me of Barnes a bit without the elite outside shot but certainly doesn't have a broken shot by any means. I don't think he'll carry his current 37% to the NBA and his assist rate is a bit worrisome but his 2pt% is elite for a player his size with his usage.

How is his lateral quickness? The defensive highlights I've seen have normally shown him picking off passes and taking them to the house but they don't normally show how he reacts to other players off the dribble.

Yea, I see a bulkier Harrison Barnes. Good at a number of things, but not elite.

 

[iowamcnabb]

One other note about Keegan:

He has out performed scouts expectations for him every step of the way. Was not highly recruited coming out of HS (he went to school 20 min from the University of Iowa). He did better than expected as a freshman in the shadow of Garza and others and is now one of the best college players in a good conference. I fully expect him to be Harris or better. Just gets it done

 

[Capt. Factorial]

One other note about Keegan:

He has out performed scouts expectations for him every step of the way. Was not highly recruited coming out of HS (he went to school 20 min from the University of Iowa). He did better than expected as a freshman in the shadow of Garza and others and is now one of the best college players in a good conference. I fully expect him to be Harris or better. Just gets it done

I like Keegan a lot. I think we should at least temper expectations on Keegan a bit by noting that at 21.5 years old, he's basically the same age as some of the seniors in the draft (Agbaji, Trevion Williams), so in a way although he's a sophomore, he's kind of his own extrapolation to "imagine what he'd do as a senior". Some of that might even be encouraging, in the sense that he has already done some of his bulking up - if he were 19 years old there would be much more reason to believe he'd bulk himself up out of any possibility to play wing at all. (But I am less bullish on Keegan's wing potential than Baja and I think he ends up a straight-up 4 in the Barnes mold.) But yes, he's clearly talented and would be one of my top targets outside of the top 4-5 or so.

 

[funkykingston]

I like Keegan and I think he'll be a good NBA player, but I feel like his stats at Iowa are a bit inflated. When I watch him he doesn't pop on tape the way I'd expect someone with his numbers to, particularly on defense. He's bigger and stronger on the college level but not super athletic. I think he has enough skills to be a solid player on offense but I'm not sure how much his college production will translate. I could be wrong and he'll become a star, but so far it's not what I project from what I've seen of him.