Kings acquire Tristan Thompson for Delon Wright

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Capt. Factorial

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#241
#241
sactowndog said:
I think Detroit also got two seconds did they not? Just because the Kings have traditionally gotten no value from 2nds doesn’t mean that fact is true for all teams.
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It really depends on when you look. Over the last nine years, the average (not median) second round pick has been worth (to date, since some careers obviously aren't over) 3.3 WS. The Kings had 7 second round picks over that time and got 0.7 WS per pick, so pretty lousy return thus far.

But if you look at the last eleven years, while the average second round pick has gone up in value to 3.5 WS per pick, the Kings' average value per pick has been 9.6 WS, blowing the average team out of the water. The Kings got that value by drafting Isaiah Thomas and Hassan Whiteside. (And yes, Whiteside didn't earn most of his value for the Kings, but we picked him. The Kings have a couple of second rounders that have put up oretty nice stats for them, including Richaun Holmes, that they didn't pick and didn't get credit for in the above analysis. Fair's fair.)

The fact is that the average value of second-round picks is heavily, heavily skewed by a small number of very good players. In fact, in the last eleven years only five players from the second round have exceeded 40 WS: Nikola Jokic, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Isaiah Thomas, and Hassan Whiteside. The Kings selected two of those five. Which is pretty good. Considering that 6% of second round picks account for 50% of the WS value of second rounders, it shoul dbe pretty clear that for all intents, the second round is feast or famine. The Kings have feasted with 2 of their last 10 picks, which is actually a really great hit rate.

And, of course, the book isn't entirely closed on guys like Woodard and Ramsey and it isn't even open yet on Queta.

I get that every fan wants their team to do more with their draft picks. But many fans overestimate what other teams do with their draft picks while underestimating what their own team does with theirs.
 
sactowndog

sactowndog

All-Star
#242
#242
Capt. Factorial said:
It really depends on when you look. Over the last nine years, the average (not median) second round pick has been worth (to date, since some careers obviously aren't over) 3.3 WS. The Kings had 7 second round picks over that time and got 0.7 WS per pick, so pretty lousy return thus far.

But if you look at the last eleven years, while the average second round pick has gone up in value to 3.5 WS per pick, the Kings' average value per pick has been 9.6 WS, blowing the average team out of the water. The Kings got that value by drafting Isaiah Thomas and Hassan Whiteside. (And yes, Whiteside didn't earn most of his value for the Kings, but we picked him. The Kings have a couple of second rounders that have put up oretty nice stats for them, including Richaun Holmes, that they didn't pick and didn't get credit for in the above analysis. Fair's fair.)

The fact is that the average value of second-round picks is heavily, heavily skewed by a small number of very good players. In fact, in the last eleven years only five players from the second round have exceeded 40 WS: Nikola Jokic, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Isaiah Thomas, and Hassan Whiteside. The Kings selected two of those five. Which is pretty good. Considering that 6% of second round picks account for 50% of the WS value of second rounders, it shoul dbe pretty clear that for all intents, the second round is feast or famine. The Kings have feasted with 2 of their last 10 picks, which is actually a really great hit rate.

And, of course, the book isn't entirely closed on guys like Woodard and Ramsey and it isn't even open yet on Queta.

I get that every fan wants their team to do more with their draft picks. But many fans overestimate what other teams do with their draft picks while underestimating what their own team does with theirs.
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I would add that Boston got most of the value from IT. It also doesn’t account for the value some get by moving into the first round with seconds from teams that want to move out of the first and avoid cap holds.
 
pdxKingsFan

pdxKingsFan

So Ordinary That It's Truly Quite Extraordinary
Staff member
#243
#243
sactowndog said:
I think Detroit also got two seconds did they not? Just because the Kings have traditionally gotten no value from 2nds doesn’t mean that fact is true for all teams.
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I don't think 2nds are worthless but they can basically be had for cash all day. My other "issue" with them right now, is we've got a lot of 2nds on the team and they'll never pan out if they keep getting behind the shiny new 2nd rounder we just signed who will get buried behind the one next year. We got two who were highly regarded last year and one that at least one of the panelists on ESPN predicted could be a started by the end of the season this year. All that said, we need guys who can actually play on day one and we need 3-4 of them so no point carrying even more 2nd rounders.

Also as currently stands we still have at least one or two extra 2nds coming our way over the next 2-3 drafts.
 
Entity

Entity

Hall of Famer
#244
#244
Capt. Factorial said:
It really depends on when you look. Over the last nine years, the average (not median) second round pick has been worth (to date, since some careers obviously aren't over) 3.3 WS. The Kings had 7 second round picks over that time and got 0.7 WS per pick, so pretty lousy return thus far.

But if you look at the last eleven years, while the average second round pick has gone up in value to 3.5 WS per pick, the Kings' average value per pick has been 9.6 WS, blowing the average team out of the water. The Kings got that value by drafting Isaiah Thomas and Hassan Whiteside. (And yes, Whiteside didn't earn most of his value for the Kings, but we picked him. The Kings have a couple of second rounders that have put up oretty nice stats for them, including Richaun Holmes, that they didn't pick and didn't get credit for in the above analysis. Fair's fair.)

The fact is that the average value of second-round picks is heavily, heavily skewed by a small number of very good players. In fact, in the last eleven years only five players from the second round have exceeded 40 WS: Nikola Jokic, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Isaiah Thomas, and Hassan Whiteside. The Kings selected two of those five. Which is pretty good. Considering that 6% of second round picks account for 50% of the WS value of second rounders, it shoul dbe pretty clear that for all intents, the second round is feast or famine. The Kings have feasted with 2 of their last 10 picks, which is actually a really great hit rate.

And, of course, the book isn't entirely closed on guys like Woodard and Ramsey and it isn't even open yet on Queta.

I get that every fan wants their team to do more with their draft picks. But many fans overestimate what other teams do with their draft picks while underestimating what their own team does with theirs.
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So we are due
 
sactowndog

sactowndog

All-Star
#245
#245
pdxKingsFan said:
I don't think 2nds are worthless but they can basically be had for cash all day. My other "issue" with them right now, is we've got a lot of 2nds on the team and they'll never pan out if they keep getting behind the shiny new 2nd rounder we just signed who will get buried behind the one next year. We got two who were highly regarded last year and one that at least one of the panelists on ESPN predicted could be a started by the end of the season this year. All that said, we need guys who can actually play on day one and we need 3-4 of them so no point carrying even more 2nd rounders.

Also as currently stands we still have at least one or two extra 2nds coming our way over the next 2-3 drafts.
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We have one extra pick in 2025.
 
sactowndog

sactowndog

All-Star
#250
#250
pdxKingsFan said:
I know getting excited about second rounders is dumb but I am excited about Queta considering he won't be buried behind 2-3 more expensive players with a future here. But I still figured we'd bring Holmes back on the early bird.
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actually I’m excited by him too. Not excited by Thompson being in front of him if we get Holmes and taking up time.
 
pdxKingsFan

pdxKingsFan

So Ordinary That It's Truly Quite Extraordinary
Staff member
#251
#251
sactowndog said:
actually I’m excited by him too. Not excited by Thompson being in front of him if we get Holmes and taking up time.
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I have a feeling whatever time he gets early in the season will be pretty limited no matter who is in front of him. If he can get 5 mins a night early and just a chance to show that will be nice. I bet he gets in a lot of foul trouble early so it won't matter much either way.

My hope is some of his time gets shared with Marvin if he's still here, just so we can see if this is a pairing that works - especially with a defensive minded backcourt not getting blown by all night.

My other hope is that if Holmes re-signs, TT is shipped before the deadline.
 
pdxKingsFan

pdxKingsFan

So Ordinary That It's Truly Quite Extraordinary
Staff member
#255
#255
There's no reason not to walk away after getting Len and re-signing Holmes.

Not that we can't take another player from Atlanta like Reddish, Hunter or Huerter back if they are still dealing with Boston. Or a larger package where maybe we swap Bagley for a re-signed Collins. But taking back TT right now would be foolish.
 
ockingsfan

ockingsfan

Starter
#256
#256
pdxKingsFan said:
There's no reason not to walk away after getting Len and re-signing Holmes.

Not that we can't take another player from Atlanta like Reddish, Hunter or Huerter back if they are still dealing with Boston. Or a larger package where maybe we swap Bagley for a re-signed Collins. But taking back TT right now would be foolish.
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I sure hope Monte has backed out of taking TT in a trade. Maybe the Kings stay in this trade, but take back a wing instead.

At this point, the only position the Kings should be trying to fill with a trade is the wing. No more big men and no more point guards.

It should be wings or bust! ;)
 
Insomniacal Fan

Insomniacal Fan

Starter
#257
#257
D13 said:
I wonder if this was a Luke Walton push. He's a LA guy + TT gone Hollywood.. they might run in circles. Maybe Luke thinking he can get something out of him still.
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I think this is right. Luke apparently played with him.

Seems like a Trevor Ariza/Corey Joseph "Coach's Vet." Give LW eyes and ears into the locker room to be able to sniff out any resistance.
 
C

cwebb2002

Bench
#258
#258
Insomniacal Fan said:
I think this is right. Luke apparently played with him.

Seems like a Trevor Ariza/Corey Joseph "Coach's Vet." Give LW eyes and ears into the locker room to be able to sniff out any resistance.
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Not sure thats really and issue. Fox and Hali support him and like him so i dont think beyond Buddy, many players dislike him.
 
T

The_Jamal

Hall of Famer
#269
#269
sactowndog said:
he was a back up center in Boston who desperately needed a full sized PF and couldn’t get on the floor.
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TT and Theis did get some burn together last year. Wasn't pretty.

If he does come here, we obviously think last year was an outlier and he can get back to somewhat close to his career production. The rebounding is still beyond elite; but 54% TS from a non-spacing big just doesn't cut it, especially when most of your shot attempts should be as a finisher/clean-up man.
 
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