I agree with you on Patrick Williams - he's a guy where I just don't quite see what everybody is projecting. Sure, he could turn out great, but that's not a gamble I'm inclined to make.
On the principle of playing it safe rather than swinging for the fences, I have to disagree for this Kings team in this draft. As far as this draft goes, I don't think that at #12 there is going to be much in the way of "high floor" safe players. I would say that the players with the highest floors that are likely to be available at our pick (almost certainly not all of them will be available) are going to be Okoro, Vassell, and Anthony, who I would all peg as having a floor as rotation players. But when I consider that in the long run I'm not all that confident that Okoro and Vassell will be better than Kent Bazemore, or that Anthony will be better than Cory Joseph I begin to wonder how much they're going to help us. Yes, as rotation players they would be cheaper for the next four years (how much of those four years are growing pains years is unclear) but that's not the kind of player that is going to put any team over the top, much less the Kings as constructed.
Sure, we could wait for the second round to swing for the fences, but the number of home runs in the second round is low. In the 15 years from 2000-2014 there were 14 All-Stars selected in the second round, slightly less than 1 per year. That would suggest that we have at best a 1 in 10 shot of really nailing it i the seonc round this year with our three picks. Fine, we can do that, but it doesn't preclude also taking a swing with #12.
If the safe bets at #12 aren't likely to be better than guys we can typically pick up as free agents or in give-up-little trades, then I don't see the harm in passing one of those guys by to take a swing on a player who, if they develop, is the kind of guy we could only ever get to come to Sacramento if we drafted him. People seem to be settling in to the idea that this team is rebuilding again. And in a rebuild, drafting a rotation player doesn't really get you anywhere.
I'm not a big Williams fan. Way too raw for me. He shows promise of being a good defender, but his offensive side of the ball is what concerns me. My first choice is still Vassell, but my 2nd is Bey. He may or may not ever be a starter, but I like his progression from his freshman year to his sophmore year. He plays under Jay Wright, which is a big plus. He can shoot and he can defend, and he's 6'8", so he legit size for the SF spot. Yeah, he has some areas that need tightening up, but overall, he's one of the most ready to play players in this draft.
If you want a freak athlete to develop then go with Cassius Stanley. Of course he's a likely 2nd rd pick. Or, take a gamble on the Serbian kid Pokusevski. Whats not to like about a 7 foot SF? In all honesty, the only shoot for the fences player in our draft range is probably Precious Achiuwa. Defensively he's a monster along with being an outstanding rebounder. His offensive game away from the basket is a work in progress, but when I watch him play, there's just something about him that screams future star. The only other one is probably Josh Green, who again, looks like a defensive stopper at the next level. Green didn't shoot the ball that badly, somewhere around 36% from the three, but his shot looks a bit funky to me and probably needs to be reworked.
I'm not against taking a flyer on a player, but I'd like that player to be really good at something. As for the 2nd rd, I think there will be some rotational players that emerge, maybe even a starter or two. Trick is, finding them. I would love Killian Tillie. He's lottery skilled, and when healthy, starting material. He has the complete game. He's a smart defender who is quicker laterally than you would think. Good rebounder and good three pt shooter. Excellent passer and good ball handler for a 6'10" player. Yeah, I'm biased. I want him to succeed. He's so talented and one injury after another has kept screwing up his career. Robert Woodard is another player that could end up being a solid rotational player, and lastly, so as not to bore you, Sam Merrill and Paul Reed.
I've probably spent more time this year looking at potential 2nd rd picks and mid first rd picks than ever before. Unfortunately, players that at the beginning of the year I thought would be in our draft range, played too well, and moved up out of our range. Players like Okuru and Haliburton, even Toppin. Happens every year. Oh well!