2016 NBA Draft Discussion
- Thread starter Dime Dropper
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It's a weighted comparison. I think that's where Dime Dropper is coming from because I had a similar reaction to it. Pietrus was a raw but athletically gifted player with a shaky jumper who never really met his potential in the NBA. Making him Luwawu's ceiling is basically the same thing as saying you don't think he's going to make it as a starter in the NBA. You could easily make his comparison Jimmy Butler instead -- a raw but athletically gifted player with a shaky jumper who was drafted late in the first round and carved out a nice career for himself first as a defensive role-player and then as a go-to scorer and one of the better two-way guards in the league. Pietrus was actually underrated as a 3 and D threat in the prime of his career when he was a key contributor for an Orlando team that made it all the way to the Finals. If a "ceiling" is meant to be a player's absolute peak potential though, Pietrus is setting the bar pretty low.
Personally, I don't have a problem with the comparison itself -- that may be who Luwawu is. But I've seen enough of his games that I think his peak potential is much higher. He's a physical defender who moves his feet well and anticipates passes, he's not a great ballhandler right now but he flies in the open court and has pretty good court-vision for a wing. His pull-up jumper is all over the place but he's much more consistent spotted up. I wouldn't make him a starter right away, but give him a few seasons off the bench to see what he can grow into.
The reason I like him so much for us is that we project to be a physical defensive squad under Joerger's leadership and that means we need rangy wing defenders to pressure the ball. Who do we have right now that fits the bill? Rudy Gay if he does a 180 on his defensive effort and that's about it. McLemore is a bouncy athlete but he hasn't been able to put on enough strength to impact the game defensively. Belinelli has never been a defender. Omri gives effort and hustle but he's actually better equipped to guard smallball 4s. We're going to need an influx of quick-footed, long-limbed wings in the next couple of years as we move up the ranks in defensive rating and Luwawu could be one piece of that puzzle.
Personally, I don't have a problem with the comparison itself -- that may be who Luwawu is. But I've seen enough of his games that I think his peak potential is much higher. He's a physical defender who moves his feet well and anticipates passes, he's not a great ballhandler right now but he flies in the open court and has pretty good court-vision for a wing. His pull-up jumper is all over the place but he's much more consistent spotted up. I wouldn't make him a starter right away, but give him a few seasons off the bench to see what he can grow into.
The reason I like him so much for us is that we project to be a physical defensive squad under Joerger's leadership and that means we need rangy wing defenders to pressure the ball. Who do we have right now that fits the bill? Rudy Gay if he does a 180 on his defensive effort and that's about it. McLemore is a bouncy athlete but he hasn't been able to put on enough strength to impact the game defensively. Belinelli has never been a defender. Omri gives effort and hustle but he's actually better equipped to guard smallball 4s. We're going to need an influx of quick-footed, long-limbed wings in the next couple of years as we move up the ranks in defensive rating and Luwawu could be one piece of that puzzle.
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We'll have to look at replacing our PG or SG positions for defense. The bigger problem lies on our PG position. Ben is an average defender. Collison is an average defender. However, in today's game with the highlighted importance of PG scoring..... PG is definitely the biggest weakness we'll have to fix.
Brown/Luwawu cannot start next season. They're raw, and neither of them can shoot consistently....nor is their defense good enough to justify their start. As you said, the NBA is dominated by offenses that rely on 3pt shooting. We already have a problem with Cousins-WCS-Gay because neither of those guys can consistently hit the 3pt shot. I could even add Collison to that list(extremely slow gather, awkward release, tight hips, etc...[often left open]).. The only pure 3pt shooters we have on this team are Marco and Ben.....maybe Casspi.
We need a PG who can defend. We really have to hope that Dunn falls to us. If not, I could see us taking Wade Baldwin. Perimeter defense is a gigantic need, but it's not the only need on this team. We still need more shooting. Wouldn't count out guys like Chriss, Ellenson, Labissiere, Hernagomez, and even Davis.
Brown/Luwawu cannot start next season. They're raw, and neither of them can shoot consistently....nor is their defense good enough to justify their start. As you said, the NBA is dominated by offenses that rely on 3pt shooting. We already have a problem with Cousins-WCS-Gay because neither of those guys can consistently hit the 3pt shot. I could even add Collison to that list(extremely slow gather, awkward release, tight hips, etc...[often left open]).. The only pure 3pt shooters we have on this team are Marco and Ben.....maybe Casspi.
We need a PG who can defend. We really have to hope that Dunn falls to us. If not, I could see us taking Wade Baldwin. Perimeter defense is a gigantic need, but it's not the only need on this team. We still need more shooting. Wouldn't count out guys like Chriss, Ellenson, Labissiere, Hernagomez, and even Davis.
Watching him play, I have Ellenson listed more as a C in the NBA than a stretch 4 where he was initially projected. He measured out bigger than expected -- 6'11" in shoes with a 7'2" wingspan -- so he's certainly big enough to play center in the NBA. The outside shooting touch is a bonus at either position. Most college C's need to put on muscle when they come into the league. Ellenson and Poetl are both intriguing prospects. I'd probably be more excited about them if we didn't already have a center (a dangerous way to think around the time of the draft!) but I think both are really skilled big men of the type we're always trying to find here around free agency, so it wouldn't hurt to have another quality big on the bench.
I agree that Ellenson's future position will probably be Center. As I said before, he needs to get stronger, but what's new. For that reason, if I had to choose between Ellenson and Poeltl, I would pick Poeltl, who is ready to play center in the NBA right now. Ellenson may have a slightly higher ceiling, but he also has a lower floor. Poeltl has a decently high ceiling, and has the smallest differential between his floor and his ceiling.
What is very far as far as sliding?
3 Celtics. Brown due to Kyler feeling confidant about this
4. PHX. Bender? Chriss? I got no feel for them here, but doubt they take Hield...draftexpress has Bender here
5. Minny. Dunn, I feel like they go Dunn here
6. NO.. With Brown off the board, I feel as if they go Murray but maybe it's Hield
7. Denver. Hield or Murray whoever is left
8..Sac?
If Brown goes 3 and not a big, then I'm afraid we miss on those guards. I think the only other landing spot for a big in the top 7, could be NO if they think they could use another big like Poeltl, Skal, Ellenson or Chriss. If Denver thinks they want to move Faried, then a guy like Chris's or one of the other PFs might be a fit along their 2 young centers.
Brown at 3 may mean Wade Baldwin for us at 8.
3 Celtics. Brown due to Kyler feeling confidant about this
4. PHX. Bender? Chriss? I got no feel for them here, but doubt they take Hield...draftexpress has Bender here
5. Minny. Dunn, I feel like they go Dunn here
6. NO.. With Brown off the board, I feel as if they go Murray but maybe it's Hield
7. Denver. Hield or Murray whoever is left
8..Sac?
If Brown goes 3 and not a big, then I'm afraid we miss on those guards. I think the only other landing spot for a big in the top 7, could be NO if they think they could use another big like Poeltl, Skal, Ellenson or Chriss. If Denver thinks they want to move Faried, then a guy like Chris's or one of the other PFs might be a fit along their 2 young centers.
Brown at 3 may mean Wade Baldwin for us at 8.
I didn't use Jimmy Butler as a comparison because Luwawu is very different from Butler coming out of college. Butler was a very efficient scorer (over 50% FG) who was not considered overly athletic (you can say his athleticism was under estimated but it was not obvious like Luwawu's). Luwawu is an athletic freak who is very inefficient at scoring (below 40%). The closest comparison is Pietrus, right down to the athleticism, style, and erratic offense.
You seem to imply Pietrus is an unspectacular player but then you proceed to say he was underrated. Can you make up your mind? You're basically accusing me of underrating Luwawu by comparing him to Pietrus, but then completely override what you've just said by saying essentially, "Pietrus was a pretty good player at his prime."
You've basically just described Pietrus.
I like defensive wing, but don't tell me that is the best we can do with a #8 pick.
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You seem to imply Pietrus is an unspectacular player but then you proceed to say he was underrated. Can you make up your mind? You're basically accusing me of underrating Luwawu by comparing him to Pietrus, but then completely override what you've just said by saying essentially, "Pietrus was a pretty good player at his prime."
You've basically just described Pietrus.
I like defensive wing, but don't tell me that is the best we can do with a #8 pick.
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I don't know why I bother if you're going to give me crap for basically agreeing with you but trying to explain why the comparison was perceived unfavorably. I think Pietrus is underrated as a player in that he was a very important player on a winning team during his prime. He's remembered more for being a disappointment, but peak career Pietrus is a player I'd love to have on my team. Also, I was saying that he had an unspectacular NBA career not that he was an unspectacular player so if you're making a floor/ceiling comparison (which is something I explicitly avoid doing for this reason) and you throw out Pietrus as a guy's ceiling you're telling me that he's never going to make it as a starter in the NBA. It's a completely different thing to say he reminds you of Pietrus (which I would agree with) vs. his ceiling is Pietrus. You said we could sign a FA as good as Luwawu, and I really don't see who you could be thinking of. Players with two-way potential don't come cheap. We tried and failed to get Wesley Matthews at $15 million a year coming off a potentially career-wrecking achilles surgery last year! If I can have Luwawu for 4 years starting at 2.5 million next year or a 30 year old veteran of comparable talents for maybe 12+ million a year and all of the injury risks that go along with that, hell yes I'd be happy to have Luwawu.
The whole tenor of your posts is a little confusing to me. You're downplaying prospects and the draft in general for having role-player potential, but that's what the draft is. We're #8. We suck at winning and we suck at losing so we don't get to draft the next Lebron James caliber talent. Instead we have to find an overlooked talent that 7 teams passed on and develop them into a star if possible or at least a high-level role-player. These are going to be players that other teams see as below star quality and whether or not they exceed expectations has much more to do with what's between the ears than their physical tools or which former players they superficially resemble. I think the Jimmy Butler comparison is a good one because you're talking about an older prospect with a lot of perceived flaws and role-player potential who kept working on his game and turned himself into a top-ranked defender and a 20 point scorer. Nobody saw that coming, probably not even the Bulls when they drafted him 30th overall in 2011. What was Jimmy Butler's ceiling pre-draft? Draftexpress had him listed as the #21 prospect in the Big East Conference in 2010. Mickael Pietrus was a lottery pick (11th overall) in 2003 so his "ceiling" was obviously much higher than Butler's right? A ceiling is supposed to be a best-case scenario. I don't see a compelling reason to say that Luwawu is incapable of performing as well as Jimmy Butler has in the NBA.
But really, if you don't want a defensive wing at #8 where you're lucky if you find a consistent starter, than I don't know what you are looking for. A defensive wing who can hit open shots, put pressure on the other team with his ball-handling and passing, make smart rotations on defense and create extra possessions by coming up with steals is a player I would love to have with the #1 pick. Our chronic need for defensive wings on this team is a serious problem that goes all the way back to the Doug Christie trade. We've tried drafting shooters, we've tried drafting PGs, we've tried drafting multi-skilled bigs. The last defensive wing we drafted in the first round was Gerald Wallace 15 years ago. Why not draft a defensive wing for a change? We've got to get them somehow don't we?
The whole tenor of your posts is a little confusing to me. You're downplaying prospects and the draft in general for having role-player potential, but that's what the draft is. We're #8. We suck at winning and we suck at losing so we don't get to draft the next Lebron James caliber talent. Instead we have to find an overlooked talent that 7 teams passed on and develop them into a star if possible or at least a high-level role-player. These are going to be players that other teams see as below star quality and whether or not they exceed expectations has much more to do with what's between the ears than their physical tools or which former players they superficially resemble. I think the Jimmy Butler comparison is a good one because you're talking about an older prospect with a lot of perceived flaws and role-player potential who kept working on his game and turned himself into a top-ranked defender and a 20 point scorer. Nobody saw that coming, probably not even the Bulls when they drafted him 30th overall in 2011. What was Jimmy Butler's ceiling pre-draft? Draftexpress had him listed as the #21 prospect in the Big East Conference in 2010. Mickael Pietrus was a lottery pick (11th overall) in 2003 so his "ceiling" was obviously much higher than Butler's right? A ceiling is supposed to be a best-case scenario. I don't see a compelling reason to say that Luwawu is incapable of performing as well as Jimmy Butler has in the NBA.
But really, if you don't want a defensive wing at #8 where you're lucky if you find a consistent starter, than I don't know what you are looking for. A defensive wing who can hit open shots, put pressure on the other team with his ball-handling and passing, make smart rotations on defense and create extra possessions by coming up with steals is a player I would love to have with the #1 pick. Our chronic need for defensive wings on this team is a serious problem that goes all the way back to the Doug Christie trade. We've tried drafting shooters, we've tried drafting PGs, we've tried drafting multi-skilled bigs. The last defensive wing we drafted in the first round was Gerald Wallace 15 years ago. Why not draft a defensive wing for a change? We've got to get them somehow don't we?
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I've watched a lot of game film on Luwawu, and unlike Pietrus, he's a pretty good jump shooter. He shot 37.2% from the three while taking almost 6 attempts a game. The reason Luwawu's overall percentage is so low is that he's not a good finisher at the basket and many times ends up throwing up some sort of wild floater instead of trying to finish and maybe get a foul called. Pietrus never developed a feel for shooting the ball, and many times his shot looked like a knuckle ball going up there. Luwawu also has a bit of a loose handle. That, and for other reasons I like Korkmaz better. He has a better handle, he's a better shooter, he's also a very good athlete, but suffers from some of the same afflictions as Luwawu when attacking the basket. .
So from my point of view, I don't see a lot of comparison between Luwawu and Pietrus, other than both have flaws, and both are athletic, and both are French. But everyone has a different perspective.
So from my point of view, I don't see a lot of comparison between Luwawu and Pietrus, other than both have flaws, and both are athletic, and both are French. But everyone has a different perspective.
Weren't there reports earlier that both LA and Boston are shopping their picks very aggressively? Who Boston and LA like at the top of the draft may not actually be relevant. It seems that Simmons is solidly #1 and Ingram is most likely #2, but after that who knows. I've seen 6 different players mocked into that #3 spot already and the draft is still 10 days away.
Once past the top two, it will most likely come down to team needs more than anything else since the talent level is fairly equal, depending on what you value. Except for the top of the draft, this is a front court draft. By top, I mean the top eight players, four of which are guards. After that it's mostly SF's, PF's and Centers.
https://twitter.com/stevekylernba/status/742506216195272704
Someone asked Kyler about Kris Dunn and he says that he's being told Dunn has a promise in the top 6. Don't get your hopes up Kings fans.
Someone asked Kyler about Kris Dunn and he says that he's being told Dunn has a promise in the top 6. Don't get your hopes up Kings fans.
https://twitter.com/stevekylernba/status/742511398316560385
Denver a possibility for Skal or Bender or Brown........good, hope a guard drops to us.
Denver a possibility for Skal or Bender or Brown........good, hope a guard drops to us.
Am I the only one getting worried about the lack of pre-draft workouts? Say what you want about agents holding draft camps or whatever..........but loads of teams have had them. Check out the Raptors who pick 9:
Demetrius Jackson, Henry Ellenson, Damian Jones, Domantas Sabonis, Diamond Stone, Stephen Zimmerman, Brice Johnson, AJ Hammons, Chinau Onaku, Jake Layman, and Gary Payton II.
I mean come on.... the Kings haven't even brought in real NBA prospects yet. I'm not talking about top 10 guys, I'm talking about guys who would actually be able to make any 15 man squad.
Here's what Ford said about the Kings in one of his pieces mid May.... http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/stor...-five-top-things-watch-2016-nba-draft-combine
I guess I don't blame teams. 3 years ago, we drafted McLemore and put him through a barrage of coaches and haven't been able to develop him. The year after, we draft a guy at that same very position.....put him through 3 coaches in his rookie year, then decided to trade him for absolutely nothing before his 2nd season. WCS wasn't so bad, but a lot had to do with the fact that he was a lot more developed than Ben/Nik...and already 22.
It's been 2 weeks since our last workout. I'm thinking that players personally don't want to be here. It's not like the Kings are preoccupied with other things..we didn't make the playoffs. We don't have to focus on resigning an important FA. We aren't candidates for a big FA. We got our coach a month ago...so what's the hold up? Leads me to think that agents and players don't want to be here.
oh, did I mention that the draft is 10 days away?
Demetrius Jackson, Henry Ellenson, Damian Jones, Domantas Sabonis, Diamond Stone, Stephen Zimmerman, Brice Johnson, AJ Hammons, Chinau Onaku, Jake Layman, and Gary Payton II.
I mean come on.... the Kings haven't even brought in real NBA prospects yet. I'm not talking about top 10 guys, I'm talking about guys who would actually be able to make any 15 man squad.
Here's what Ford said about the Kings in one of his pieces mid May.... http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/stor...-five-top-things-watch-2016-nba-draft-combine
I guess I don't blame teams. 3 years ago, we drafted McLemore and put him through a barrage of coaches and haven't been able to develop him. The year after, we draft a guy at that same very position.....put him through 3 coaches in his rookie year, then decided to trade him for absolutely nothing before his 2nd season. WCS wasn't so bad, but a lot had to do with the fact that he was a lot more developed than Ben/Nik...and already 22.
It's been 2 weeks since our last workout. I'm thinking that players personally don't want to be here. It's not like the Kings are preoccupied with other things..we didn't make the playoffs. We don't have to focus on resigning an important FA. We aren't candidates for a big FA. We got our coach a month ago...so what's the hold up? Leads me to think that agents and players don't want to be here.
oh, did I mention that the draft is 10 days away?
I've been wondering the same thing. I know teams have attended specific players individual workouts. Maybe the days where top 10 prospects get workouts like we are used to with two or three other players are done. Either that or this is a sign of things to come, which is the Kings are looking to trade the pick for immediate help.
See, I was thinking that...but I realized top 15 guys were still doing workouts... I saw that the Raps were bringing in top guys still.
Jazz who pick at 12 have also brought in: Denzel Valentine, Domantas Sabonis, Demetrius Jackson, Thon Maker, Dejounte Murray, Malachi Richardson, Gary Payton II, Dorian Finney-Smith, Pascal Siakam, Zach Auguste, Tyrone Wallace, Marcus Paige, and Jarod Uthoff.
I guess prospects don't want to be in Sacramento...or Vlade is doing something wrong. Could be that the Kings are looking to trade the pick, but there's no real trades I could think of right now.
Jazz who pick at 12 have also brought in: Denzel Valentine, Domantas Sabonis, Demetrius Jackson, Thon Maker, Dejounte Murray, Malachi Richardson, Gary Payton II, Dorian Finney-Smith, Pascal Siakam, Zach Auguste, Tyrone Wallace, Marcus Paige, and Jarod Uthoff.
I guess prospects don't want to be in Sacramento...or Vlade is doing something wrong. Could be that the Kings are looking to trade the pick, but there's no real trades I could think of right now.