2016 NBA Draft Discussion

[ParniValjak]

Sadly, I agree with you, but I'm going to remain optimistic based on the other teams needs. And, Murray is a better three point shooter than Dunn. Dunn wasn't a slouch, but he was inconsistent. Yes, he shot around 38 percent, but it was an inconsistent 38 percent. He did it by going 3 out of 4 one game, and 0 for 4 the next, and so on. whereas Murray shot over 40% for the season and did it more consistently every game. This is where stats don't tell the whole story.

Look, I love Dunn. That's why I want him to drop to us, but he's not perfect, and for that reason, he may drop. I'm already on record saying that in three or four years Dunn may end up being the best player out of this draft. I would prefer that we trade up and grab him. But that probably won't happen.

And that is one thing that gives me hope that they might opt for Murray or Hield with pick 5. Logic says they will pick the player that they think has the best chance to be a star but they might opt to pick a player that fits in the long term.

I have Richardson at 26th on my board, and to be honest, that may be too high. The fact that he played for Syracuse is enough to scare me. Especially on the defensive side of the ball. They play nothing but a zone, and they play the zone well. Well enough to cover the deficiencies of a player. Richardson plays out of control too often to suit me, and is a terrible mid-range shooter. Anyone that takes him in the lottery is nuts in my opinion. Not saying he couldn't turn into something, but that the odds are against him as compared to some other players I would take ahead of him.

I spent a lot of time over the week-end watching film of Juan Hernangomez and Petr Cornelie, and both those guys are impressive if your looking at them at the bottom half of the first round. I was surprised by their athleticism. Both players handle the ball pretty well for big men, and both shoot the ball well from the perimeter. They both need experience and polish, but I'd rather take a gamble on one of them over Richardson.

The problem is with draft in general and especially in a draft that is a crap shoot like this one, is that teams are looking for the home run. They are not necessarily looking at player's production to date but at their potential. It's why guys like Chriss and Richardson are flying up the draft boards. There are SO many issues with their games but teams see the potential and everyone wants to get a star in the draft so they will swing for the fences.

For example, let's say Celtics take Chriss at 3 and I am sure a lot of people will have a but of a giggle about it at the time but these guys are looking for the all-star down the track and backing in their development program to get the kid to reach his potential.

Similar will apply to Richardson. It's no longer popular to select kids after 4 years of college. Hell it's viewed as somewhat of a negative if the kid is coming in as a 22 year old with 4 years of college ball under his belt.

 

[biltalent]

Just want to say: I am not feeling this draft right now. Not super excited about the guys who I think will be available to the Kings.

At this point, I am rooting for trading this pick.

At any rate, this is my draft order:

1. Simmons
2. Ingram
3. Dunn
4. Chriss
5. Murray
6. Brown
7. Hield
8. ??
.

8. Luwawu

 

[hrdboild]

I think we're in a great position at 8 this year. After Simmons and Ingram, I don't see a clear winner for "3rd best prospect in the draft". It could be Kris Dunn, it could be Jaylen Brown, it could be Jamal Murray, it could be Dragan Bender or Buddy Hield. It could be Marquesse Chriss or Timothe Luwawu. I would say even Skal Labissiere or Dejounte Murray have All-Star potential if everything breaks right for them. There are going to be multiple very good prospects on the board for us to choose from. Somebody like Kris Dunn has a very good combination of future potential vs. low-risk of being a complete bust and he fits our current needs perfectly. That's why he gets pushed further up the wish-list, but personally I don't think any of these guys is such a slam dunk that we need to shed tears if someone else gets them first. And with Cauley-Stein and Koufos being the only players on our roster with contracts that extend past the next 2 seasons "current needs" can change very quickly. I always prefer players with two-way potential so it's Dunn, Brown, Chriss, and Luwawu at the top of my list but I wouldn't be heart-broken if we end up with Hield, Bender, Labissiere, or one of the Murrays either because I think all of them are NBA players.

And I would strongly consider trading the pick to Philly for Nerlens Noel if they're targeting a guard and see one they like with our pick. We need talent and we need depth and I'd love to have any of the guys I mentioned, but Nerlens Noel is still a great compliment to Cousins and he seems to be losing favor in Philly with their over-abundance of big men and chronic lack of legit NBA talent at the guard and wing positions. I know people think Nerlens Noel is a complete liability on offense, but he can pass the ball and finish near the basket which is good enough to find a role and he's a lock to become just the 4th player in NBA history to average 2 steals per game and 2 blocks per game in the same season. True we already have Cauley-Stein, but finding minutes for 3 quality 7 footers is a problem I would love to have.

 

[jcwkings]

8. Luwawu

Bender would be an amazing pick at 8. Doubt he falls. Assuming Bender and Chriss go top 7, a guard will fall to us. Bender looks like a slightly smaller but more mobile Porzingis to me. Really starting to feel Hield falls to 8 though.

 

[dude12]

I've seen so many mock drafts from usually informed guys and they are all over the place on the 3-8 picks. I think we get a good player at 8.... A guy we can develop and who can help our bench.

 

[bajaden]

Bender would be an amazing pick at 8. Doubt he falls. Assuming Bender and Chriss go top 7, a guard will fall to us. Bender looks like a slightly smaller but more mobile Porzingis to me. Really starting to feel Hield falls to 8 though.

At eight we might be stuck trying to decide whether to draft someone that's ready to contribute now, versus someone that has more overall potential, but is a couple of years away from contributing. I think both Bender and Chriss fall into the latter category. Bender does a lot of things well, but doesn't do anything great, and he's only 18 years old. He's a very good athlete, but skinny as a rail. Chriss is a physical specimen who can jump out of the building, but lacks some of the necessary skills to contribute right away. His abilities have already been talked about so I won't bore you.

On the other hand, there are some players that are ready to contribute earlier, but possibly with a lower ceiling. Players like Poeltl or Ellenson. And, although he's not mentioned much, a player like Demetrius Jackson could probably play in the NBA right away. He's undersized for the PG position, but he does everything well and is a terrific athlete. Who knows, Denzel Valentine might be the next version of Draymond Green. He certainly has all the skills necessary to play in the NBA right away. Or, if you want solid but not spectacular, then take a flyer on Sabonis. Personally, if all the guys I want are gone, then I go with either Poeltl, Baldwin, or Korkmaz.

I've watched a ton of film on Korkmaz, and he's a very skilled player that can play and guard at least two positions. He's a solid three point shooter. He has good handles, and despite his 185 pounds, he's a pretty good finisher. Draft him, put him in the weight room and on the right diet, and you might have something special. I know there are some that like Luwawu better, but I like Korkmaz overall skill set better, although Luwawu is more ready physically and is also a two position player.

Not much is being said about Poeltl and I'm a bit surprised by that. He's a better athlete than some giving him credit for. He's shown the ability to hit the mid-range shot, with promise to extend out to the three point line. He's a very good post defender, and will surprise you with his lateral quickness on the perimeter in P&R defense. He's a decent shotblocker, but will never win any contests in that area. Add in that he's a decent to good post player offensively, and you have a player that can contribute right away, and should or could be a starter in the future.

A lot has already been said about Baldwin so I won't go over that ground again. I like Baldwin who is a terrific athlete that's been called a poor man's Kris Dunn. In truth, he could end up being as good, or better than Dunn in a couple of years, and I'm very high on Dunn. But he does have some holes in his game that he has to fix. I think that if the Kings do their homework, and choose wisely, they'll get a good player and maybe an eventual starter. Hopefully, everyone will look at that player as part of the Kings future, and not its immediate savior.

 

[ParniValjak]

One smart thing that we might consider doing is trading back for two draft picks in the first round and add some talent and depth that way. It all really depends on who is there at 8 and can we get better assets for this team further down the draft order.

I still think if all the guards are gone by 8, I could see us drafting Baldwin and developing him over the next couple of seasons. He has great physical attributes for a PG. can shoot the ball and defend but will need to work on his handle and finishing at the rim.

 

[bajaden]

One smart thing that we might consider doing is trading back for two draft picks in the first round and add some talent and depth that way. It all really depends on who is there at 8 and can we get better assets for this team further down the draft order.

I still think if all the guards are gone by 8, I could see us drafting Baldwin and developing him over the next couple of seasons. He has great physical attributes for a PG. can shoot the ball and defend but will need to work on his handle and finishing at the rim.

Yeah, I wouldn't have a problem with that. I'm sure that Vlade and company have a plan A, followed by a plan B, and so on and so forth. They might have a trade in place depending on who is available at a certain part of the draft. I know they went over to Europe for the their version of the NBA combine. I'm curious to know who in particular they might have been scouting.

 

[KingMilz]

I think we're in a great position at 8 this year. After Simmons and Ingram, I don't see a clear winner for "3rd best prospect in the draft". It could be Kris Dunn, it could be Jaylen Brown, it could be Jamal Murray, it could be Dragan Bender or Buddy Hield. It could be Marquesse Chriss or Timothe Luwawu. I would say even Skal Labissiere or Dejounte Murray have All-Star potential if everything breaks right for them. There are going to be multiple very good prospects on the board for us to choose from. Somebody like Kris Dunn has a very good combination of future potential vs. low-risk of being a complete bust and he fits our current needs perfectly. That's why he gets pushed further up the wish-list, but personally I don't think any of these guys is such a slam dunk that we need to shed tears if someone else gets them first. And with Cauley-Stein and Koufos being the only players on our roster with contracts that extend past the next 2 seasons "current needs" can change very quickly. I always prefer players with two-way potential so it's Dunn, Brown, Chriss, and Luwawu at the top of my list but I wouldn't be heart-broken if we end up with Hield, Bender, Labissiere, or one of the Murrays either because I think all of them are NBA players.

And I would strongly consider trading the pick to Philly for Nerlens Noel if they're targeting a guard and see one they like with our pick. We need talent and we need depth and I'd love to have any of the guys I mentioned, but Nerlens Noel is still a great compliment to Cousins and he seems to be losing favor in Philly with their over-abundance of big men and chronic lack of legit NBA talent at the guard and wing positions. I know people think Nerlens Noel is a complete liability on offense, but he can pass the ball and finish near the basket which is good enough to find a role and he's a lock to become just the 4th player in NBA history to average 2 steals per game and 2 blocks per game in the same season. True we already have Cauley-Stein, but finding minutes for 3 quality 7 footers is a problem I would love to have.

Noel for the 8th pick is a steal, Noel is a potential beast him and WCS on D is insane the big risk with him obviously would be the contract and we might be giving up the 8th pick for basically nothing he could bolt or force us to overpay to keep him when him and WCS have a similar skillset.

 

[beb0p]

Bender would be an amazing pick at 8. Doubt he falls. Assuming Bender and Chriss go top 7, a guard will fall to us. Bender looks like a slightly smaller but more mobile Porzingis to me. Really starting to feel Hield falls to 8 though.

Have you seen Bender played (besides highlight videos)? It's a serious question because not having seen him, I want someone in the know to explain to me what his appeal is.

From what I saw, I am not at all impressed.
.

 

[beb0p]

I've seen so many mock drafts from usually informed guys and they are all over the place on the 3-8 picks. I think we get a good player at 8.... A guy we can develop and who can help our bench.

That right there is why I'm bearish on the #8 pick.

You're talking about picking a bench player who may or may not be a starter down the line. Excuse me if I don't get too excited about a bench player.
.

 

[beb0p]

8. Luwawu

I like the idea of a defensive wing and I would not be upset if the Kings ends up picking Luwawu.

But I'm just not that excited about a player whose ceiling is Mickael Pietrus. To me, the Kings can probably sign a FA who is just as good as Luwawu.
.

 

[Folsomkingsfan]

Have you seen Bender played (besides highlight videos)? It's a serious question because not having seen him, I want someone in the know to explain to me what his appeal is.

From what I saw, I am not at all impressed.
.

I streamed two of his games online and it was kind of hard to judge because he doesn't really play too many minutes. But I'd say a big part of his appeal is that he seems to have a basic ability to do most things required in the nba. He is not above average in any one category, but he's shown the ability to make tight passes, run the floor and make cuts, block shots, hit 3's, and run pick and rolls. TBH though I'm not seeing what makes him considered a top pick. I think it's just because his height and slightly above average stroke make him desirable in this post Porzingis world.

 

[Dime Dropper]

I like the idea of a defensive wing and I would not be upset if the Kings ends up picking Luwawu.

But I'm just not that excited about a player whose ceiling is Mickael Pietrus. To me, the Kings can probably sign a FA who is just as good as Luwawu.
.

Comparison stereotype down even to the nationality, impressive.

BTW, even though I'm not a particularly big fan of Bender, it's flat out wrong to say his hype is due to Porzingis. Bender has been a big time prospect for years, since he was a kid. Porzingis not so much. Bender was an NBA prospect years before most people had even heard of Porzingis.

 

[206Fan]

Thoughts on Henry Ellenson alongside Cousins?

Ellenson is an extremely skilled offensive player. He'll never be anything above average on defense, but I could see a Gasol-Zbo type relationship between the two guys.

 

[bajaden]

Comparison stereotype down even to the nationality, impressive.

BTW, even though I'm not a particularly big fan of Bender, it's flat out wrong to say his hype is due to Porzingis. Bender has been a big time prospect for years, since he was a kid. Porzingis not so much. Bender was an NBA prospect years before most people had even heard of Porzingis.

Yeah, I remember reading articles about Bender when he 15 years old. People need to remember that he's one of the youngest players in the draft. I agree with FolsomKing about watching him play. I've watched several games over the internet and he doesn't get as much playing time as I would like.

 

[bajaden]

Thoughts on Henry Ellenson alongside Cousins?

Ellenson is an extremely skilled offensive player. He'll never be anything above average on defense, but I could see a Gasol-Zbo type relationship between the two guys.

I agree! Very skilled player that can play a little center as well as PF. Average athlete, and therefore most aren't high on his defensive possibilities. But on the right team, who knows?

 

[dude12]

https://twitter.com/stevekylernba/status/742091740182642688

According to Kyler and agents he's talked to, the Celtics guy if they draft at 3 is Jaylen Brown.....fwiw.

 

[Big Cuz 15]

wow, jaylen brown at 3??

 

[dude12]

wow, jaylen brown at 3??

Could be smoke screen. If Brown goes 3, none of the guards might be around for us.

 

[kingsboi]

wow, jaylen brown at 3??

didn't we just last week see mocks and rumors about Chriss going as high as 3 to Boston? they aren't fooling anyone here, they are trolling.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

wow, jaylen brown at 3??

I'm not even sure that's a smoke screen, especially since Kyler is attributing it specifically to agents' chatter, not teams'.

This is a pretty wide open draft after the first two picks, best I can tell. Lots of question marks/warts and not a lot separating the next seven guys or so. Could Brown go #3? Absolutely. Could Brown drop to #8? Yeah, maybe so.

The only guy in that tier I think has no chance to fall to us is Murray. I'm not sure he's at the front of that next tier, but I think there are the fewest reasons to pass on him. I can talk myself out of Dunn/Hield/Brown, I don't know enough about Bender, Chriss is a serious project, and somehow people are shying away from Poeltl, which I don't get. But I can't really talk myself out of Murray - Team A might like Dunn better, Team B might like Brown better, but someone's grabbing Murray before 8.

 

[biltalent]

Keep in my mind that in last years draft Ainge offered Charlotte 4 first round picks for the 9th pick to draft Winslow, so I can see why he is interested in Brown

 

[Dime Dropper]

Yeah Brown to the Celtics wouldn't surprise me. He loves defensive, atheltic guards. Brown also comes across as extremely intelligent and coachable. I know they are guard heavy but I wouldn't be at all shocked if they take him anyway.

 

[beb0p]

Comparison stereotype down even to the nationality, impressive.

Damn, why the passive aggressiveness?

Luwawu reminds me of Pietrus, that's just what I saw when I watched him played. He is a defensive wing with a questionable but developing outside shot. A defensive wing is his calling card in the NBA, if that's stereotyping to you, so be it.

Pietrus was a solid player, so I don't understand the aggressiveness here; it's not like I'm calling him a bust. I don't think he is Sefolosha or DeShawn Stevenson or Dough Christie because I think Luwawu is a more comfortable slasher like Pietrus.

Why do you disagree with that? Why don't you offer your thoughts on Luwawu?

BTW, even though I'm not a particularly big fan of Bender, it's flat out wrong to say his hype is due to Porzingis. Bender has been a big time prospect for years, since he was a kid. Porzingis not so much. Bender was an NBA prospect years before most people had even heard of Porzingis.

That doesn't exactly explain why he is ranked so high as many big time prospects don't get to sniff the top of the lottery.

I do think part of his appeal is due to Porzingis (at least in the mock draft world) and the evolution of NBA trending towards shooting big men. That doesn't mean he hasn't been hyped since he was very young, it just means perhaps the setting in 2016 gives him a bump.
.

 

[ESP47]

Dough Christie

That's going to be a good nickname for Doug if he ever gets fat.

 

[kingsboi]

Thoughts on Henry Ellenson alongside Cousins?

Ellenson is an extremely skilled offensive player. He'll never be anything above average on defense, but I could see a Gasol-Zbo type relationship between the two guys.

I watched tape of him today. For a big man, he has a really fluid jump shot. However, he would be one of those Petrie picks, soft jump shooting big men. Pass. We need defense, size, length.

 

[New Era]

I watched tape of him today. For a big man, he has a really fluid jump shot. However, he would be one of those Petrie picks, soft jump shooting big men. Pass. We need defense, size, length.

I would think with WCS, Cuz, and KK that we have enough defense, size, and length. No?

 

[bajaden]

I'm not even sure that's a smoke screen, especially since Kyler is attributing it specifically to agents' chatter, not teams'.

This is a pretty wide open draft after the first two picks, best I can tell. Lots of question marks/warts and not a lot separating the next seven guys or so. Could Brown go #3? Absolutely. Could Brown drop to #8? Yeah, maybe so.

The only guy in that tier I think has no chance to fall to us is Murray. I'm not sure he's at the front of that next tier, but I think there are the fewest reasons to pass on him. I can talk myself out of Dunn/Hield/Brown, I don't know enough about Bender, Chriss is a serious project, and somehow people are shying away from Poeltl, which I don't get. But I can't really talk myself out of Murray - Team A might like Dunn better, Team B might like Brown better, but someone's grabbing Murray before 8.

I don't think Hield or Murray fall very far. Both can shoot the ball, and shoot it well. I think Hield is more ready and capable right now than Murray is, but then Hield has had four years to hone his game. I know people say that with Hield, what you see is what you get. I don't totally believe that, but even so, what you see is pretty damm good. I believe that if you take Hield from being the number one option, to being the number three or four option, his defense will be more than acceptable. Of course it doesn't matter because unless we trade up in the draft, we won't sniff either of them.

I do think that if one player is going to slide, it might be Bender. Not because he won't live up to expectations, but because no one can agree on what those expectations are? Other than workouts, there's not a lot to go on with Bender except the obvious. Vlade and company are over in Europe right now, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them trade down on draft day and draft a young European player or two. Maybe drop three spots or so and draft a Wade Baldwin or a Furkan Korkmaz and then later, with a newly acquired pick, draft a Petr Cornelie or a Juan Hernangomez.

This isn't a great draft as far as being loaded with potential superstars, or even stars, but it is quite deep with interchangable role players, and possible future starters. As I said in an earlier thread, you can almost swap the 25th pick with the 45th pick, and the talent would be fairly equal.

 

[bajaden]

I watched tape of him today. For a big man, he has a really fluid jump shot. However, he would be one of those Petrie picks, soft jump shooting big men. Pass. We need defense, size, length.

The only thing I would correct is the premise that Ellenson is soft. Maybe he's not as athletic as one would like, but he's not afraid to get in and bang with the big boys. There's a difference between not trying, and not capable. Ellenson will certainly give you the effort on defense. Unfortunately he's not blessed with great lateral quickness, so he'll struggle against the smaller, quicker PF's in the league, and right now, he doesn't have the strength to hold position against the bigger stronger centers in the league. In a couple of years, maybe?