I think you missed the point of my comment a little bit. I wasn't saying Elfrid Payton is a sure-fire All Star because he made the All Rookie first team or had a solid rookie season. I wasn't even saying that Payton will have a better career than Stauskas (though I believe that to be true...) I was saying the book on Payton pre-draft is that he was a talented player who was a long ways away from contributing and we should go with a sure-thing pick instead, ie the shooter we desperately needed. The justification from most for picking Stauskas over Payton was win-now and keep Cousins happy. Especially because Payton plays PG and we all know rookie PGs are always a disaster right? Right? What actually happened is that Payton had a better rookie season and already established himself as a starter, not just because he's on a crappy team with no other options, but because he's a nightly triple double threat who does enough good things (gifted playmaker, pest on defense, crashes the boards, gets to the basket) to make up for his shortcomings (awful shooter from everywhere on the floor). Stauskas meanwhile has a long ways to go to prove he deserves even 15 minutes per game off the bench at this point.
So the perception of what a "win-now" player is, to me, is deeply flawed to begin with. Mudiay could actually have a better rookie season than Cauley-Stein does. Nobody here knows! Given Mudiay's talent, I actually think it's more likely he excels right away than Cauley-Stein does. That Mudiay can physically match up with anybody at the position right now is another vote in his favor. Talent and physical profile are the two biggest factors in how well a player adapts to the NBA. Mudiay's "best case scenario" is winning rookie of the year and making every team that passed on him look like fools. Need I remind you, 2010 wasn't all that long ago. 4 PGs made the All-Rookie first team that year. All three of the leading vote-getters for ROY were PGs who started for their team as rookies. I once subscribed to the "you can't win with a rookie PG" philosophy too. I think it's outdated. It's been proven wrong already many times. You have to have talent around them, but a rookie PG isn't a liability if they're a legit talent.