Monroe is clearly winning the battle at PF in pre-season and it's not even close. He's going to get a max deal from somebody this off-season and Detroit will be kicking themselves if it's someone else. After what happened last year, they would have to be crazy to start Josh Smith at SF and he's not beating Monroe for the PF spot. Mad scientist SVG is going to put anybody who can knock down threes on the wing, and I wouldn't be surprised if both Meeks and Caldwell-Pope are sharing the floor for long stretches by the middle of the season. Theoretically Smith has some value as an off the bench third big, but both Jonas Jerebko and Cartier Martin are better three point shooters and with Monroe's max deal looming I think they're going to trade him at at some point this season.
The first thing I would ask is whether we really want Josh Smith or not. Before this summer I was on the fence but leaning toward no. Seeing Cousins take a new interest in defense changes my mind a little bit about what type of player will or won't work at PF. If Cousins can take on the challenge of being a defensive anchor for this team we're now looking for a help defender more than a post presence. Smith fits the bill here. In fact, he's the only other player in the league who comes close to equaling Cousins' all-around ability as top 20 in both blocks and steals. When he's played the PF position full time, he's been good for about 9 rebounds and 4 assists per game along with 15-16 points. He's had one truly excellent season in 09-10 where Mike Woodson finally got him to stop taking threes (o for 7 on the season) and his statistical efficiency skyrocketed, making him one of the best all-around players in the league that year. Last season he attempted a career high 265 threes and had the worst season of his career.
At this point, I actually think Josh Smith is a good idea for us. PF remains our biggest position of need and Smith brings a lot of good qualities to the table. If we bring him in though, he's locked in at PF (position-less basketball be damned) and he's forbidden from shooting threes. I'm not sure what the trade is. Detroit will want expirings so that leaves only 2 real options to build a deal: (1) Derrick Williams and Jason Thompson/CarlLandry or (2) Rudy Gay. There are salary cap considerations on our end as well. Smith/Cousins taking up $29 million of the salary cap next season means we probably have to choose between Gay and targeting another free agent (most likely Rondo).
This is where it gets interesting though. The new $24 billion TV deal the NBA signed is set to increase league revenues astronomically starting in 2017. Based on the way the salary cap is currently calculated, some people are projecting the salary cap could jump from $66 million in 15-16 to $87 million in 16-17 when the new TV deal kicks in. That's enough to add a max level player to every team. Absolute pandemonium! It's hard to see the players agreeing to a pay cut again after they already did so in 2011 and the league posted record profits in every year since. Something will be done to smooth out this transition, but it means that max deals signed under this current salary cap could be seen as a bargain a couple years from now. It also might give us a loophole through which we can push the luxary tax limit for one year and then find ourselves right back at the salary cap soon afterward.
Anyway, just speculating. I don't think anyone is in a hurry to make a trade at this point in the pre-season with so many other roster decisions to be made. At some point this year though, a Smith deal is going to come up again and I think it would be wise for Sacramento to remain aggressive about expressing their interest to Van Gundy and trying to work toward a mutually beneficial arrangement.