2014 Draft Prospects:

[Kingster]

Randle has no post game, and his face up game is pretty much straight line bully-drives. He will spend 2-3 years adjusting and developing his offense and in the mean time will rely on his non-existent team defense to get PT (he's decent man-to-man, so I guess, Randle is similar to JT defensively). Vonleh is just a bunch of tools right now: underdeveloped faceup game from HS, underdeveloped post game Crean started to teach him, lack of defensive awareness (another guy, similar to JT defensively). Exum is just a guy with excellent foot speed, lack of weight (maybe, this complain will go away by draft day), decent shooting mechanics and good work ethic. By the end of the season looks like Parker is average shooter/passer/defender, who can score. We need more of those, right?
Everyone at the top has serious holes in their games, that will take at least a couple of years to fix. Embiid and Wiggins look like they might be plugged right in as defensive roleplayers, though Embiid will have to chase PFs around perimeter, and I don't imagine him to be particular effective doing this.
In the end the best player from this draft might easily be some very athletic guy like RHJ (50/50 at best though on him declating), if he develops offensive game to catch up with his aggression and excellent defense. As for offensive project in Capela, what do you need from Kings PF other than high quality finishing and occasional mid-range jumper (guy is hitting 70% FTs over last 15 games, although on small sample size)?

Well, what Stauskas can do, that Belinelli doesn't? Exciting, right?

I think we agree. You're just more positive about the negative reality than I am. I totally agree that those top guys have holes in their games. That's what you get with "one year and out." It's always a question of degree though, and Smart and Gordon have major holes in their games with respect to their shooting, which may take years to correct, or may never get corrected. Exum also has shooting problems, but his outstanding quickness makes up for it in my book. Smart has both poor shooting and just ok quickness. I pray we don't pick Smart. If I thought the Kings could make Gordon into a good shooter, I'd take him in a heartbeat. He's got everything you want except for that one big thing - he can't shoot. Here's a problem for you to solve Vivek: Figure out a method you can make a guy like Gordon into a good shooter with a 95% confidence level of success.

I could live with Embiid or Wiggins. I would imagine that Cousins and Embiid would switch between playing the power forward or center on defense, depending upon the matchup. I think it could work.

With Wiggins you get a guy who probably has never been beaten out for a loose ball in his life. He's extremely quick to the ball. And he gets whatever shot he wants; he just hasn't been making nearly as much of those shots as you'd like. I think that will come with time.

Randle is the last of my first group because of fit and I don't see him as top tier rebounder in the NBA.

Vonleh has project-type aspects to his game, but I see him as a versatile project, who eventually will be a very good well rounded two-way player. I actually like him better than Randle.

As for Capella, there are questions surrounding his BBIQ. If that is truly the case, I shudder. Once you've been exposed to Jason Thompson, further exposure to such ineptness might kill you.

As for Stauskas, Belinelli might be a good comparison. I think Stauskas is going to be a good player. He has the moxy, the BBIQ, the versatility, and the shooting. There are worse players out there. (He's another guy I could see the Spurs taking). But I guess it's all about expectations; I thought the Kings really had a good chance at a player with an All Star ceiling; now I'm not all that positive about our chances.

PS Who is RHJ?

 

[funkykingston]

Why is there no love for Marcus Smart on this page? Are we scared of having another player tagged with attitude issue next to DMC? Or do most people here don't see him being a successful PG at all?

I can't speak for anyone else but I simply don't like Smart's game. I know there are people who have seen him play a lot more than I have but I just have been unimpressed each game I've watched. To me it seems like people are giving him a lot of credit for his build and his "intangibles" while ignoring his shortcomings.

He's a scoring point guard who isn't much of a creator or a guy who runs the offense while being a poor shooter. I think he'll be good defensively but beyond that I don't see him as either an elite talent or a good fit with the Cousins/Gay led Kings.

 

[macadocious]

I have a buddy who is a pretty big college fan and he thinks the Randle is a far better player than Vonleh. I have not watched enough to say one way or another. My assumption was Randle might end up being the better overall player but Vonleh is a better fit for us. Can someone expand on that so I can reply to him in an intelligent manner.

 

[The_Jamal]

Look up Michigan-Indiana game on youtube. When Ferrell was pestering Stauskas, he couldn't get any offensive rhythm. Kudos to Stauskas for not forcing it and taking a step back, but if you're expecting Stauskas to be some kind of prominent creator at the pro level, you're setting yourself up for disappointment. Belinelli was a pretty efficient primary scorer on a very good European team at the age of 21, and have a few NBA season, producing the same assist numbers, Stauskas had this year.

Don't really care too much about APG to judge passing or ability to create. What I like about Stauskas is that his rise in USG% this year didn't lead to more TOV's and lead to an insanely good 64% TS and a 10% rise in AST%. That shows me an incredibly smart player who knows when and how to pick his spots.

 

[Kingster]

I think Randle is a better player today than Vonleh. I think Vonleh three years from now is going to better than Randle because of his length, rebounding ability, and shot blocking capability. Regarding the intangibles, I give Vonleh the edge. Everytime I see him he has the aggression that I like to see in big guys; he's also not afraid to take the big shot. I don't see anything negative in Randle regarding the intangibles; I just haven't seen as many positives as I've seen in Vonleh. Sometimes you get a hunch about guys, and I have a hunch Vonleh is going to be very good in the pros. Like just about everybody, it will take some time. Lastly, Vonleh would be a better complementary player next to Cousins because of his length ability to alter shots.

 

[The_Jamal]

I think Randle is a better player today than Vonleh. I think Vonleh three years from now is going to better than Randle because of his length, rebounding ability, and shot blocking capability. Regarding the intangibles, I give Vonleh the edge. Everytime I see him he has the aggression that I like to see in big guys; he's also not afraid to take the big shot. I don't see anything negative in Randle regarding the intangibles; I just haven't seen as many positives as I've seen in Vonleh. Sometimes you get a hunch about guys, and I have a hunch Vonleh is going to be very good in the pros. Like just about everybody, it will take some time. Lastly, Vonleh would be a better complementary player next to Cousins because of his length ability to alter shots.

Regardless, Randle's strength, if he hits, will be scoring the ball and rebounding. Basically, a smaller, more athletic Cousins. For us, you take Vonleh over Randle without question, just because of the potential fit with our franchise guy

 

[Gilles]

2Kingster: RHJ is Rondae Hollis-Jefferson - couldn't spell him without looking up , but apparently I learned his name by now.

Don't really care too much about APG to judge passing or ability to create. What I like about Stauskas is that his rise in USG% this year didn't lead to more TOV's and lead to an insanely good 64% TS and a 10% rise in AST%. That shows me an incredibly smart player who knows when and how to pick his spots.

No doubt, he's a smart player, but you want a player with more impact in the middle of the lottery.

I have a buddy who is a pretty big college fan and he thinks the Randle is a far better player than Vonleh. I have not watched enough to say one way or another. My assumption was Randle might end up being the better overall player but Vonleh is a better fit for us. Can someone expand on that so I can reply to him in an intelligent manner.

Randle is more polished and developed physically to match his game: better handles and superior upper body strength allows him to charge through college players, getting to the rim or drawing fouls with ease. Guys in the NBA are much stronger and more athletic, so straightforward attacking doesn't lead to anything, other than offensive fouls. Glimpses of his struggles could've been seen in games against Baylor (when both Austin and Jefferson were on the floor) and LSU(with Johnny O`Bryant III on the court), where he couldn't score at all, if you don't count offensive rebounds. Another huge red flag - no finishes with right hand, and that's where Vonleh is really far ahead as he can go around both shoulders. Randle also doesn't have any defensive awareness, though Vonleh is not very good himself, but thinking of Randle trying to guard someone like Love or Blake, when they move around...they might miss a shot or two, maybe.
Now there are areas, where Randle is certainly better like offensive rebounding or getting to the line, but those has a lot to do with his upper body strength, where Vonleh is clearly underdeveloped, so in a couple of years gap might shrink a lot, if not completely.
To summarize: offensively both project as face-up PFs, and Randle has better handles, while Vonleh shows a lot better outside shot, both has rudimentary post games, though Vonleh is better at keeping position and can go around both shoulders. Both are only adequate passers.
defensively they move their feet very well (with edge to Vonleh, who can get in lower stance), but intricate offensive schemes might cause them problems, Randle especially struggles with this. As a rim protector Vonleh is not a world beater, but he's much better than Randle is. Both are not explosive vertically as they need to gather to really get up, but Vonleh is an excellent 2-feet leaper (he can touch targets over 12 feet - couldn't be measured exactly as apparently Indiana lacks in equipment), and you could see it in his rebounding, where he doesn't lean into opponents like Randle, but rather out-reaches them.

 

[LPKingsFan]

Interesting that Vonleh has a longer wingspan than Gordon but a shorter (albeit very slightly) standing reach.

 

[Gilles]

Hoops Summit measurements are in for World Team: http://www.draftexpress.com/article/2014-Nike-Hoop-Summit-International-Measurements-4437
Capela's weight went up to 222, but he's also now listed at 6'11". Damien Inglis can't boast advanced skills, but truly elite athlete. And Karl Towns Jr's length I still remember his shooting contest with Wiggins a year ago.

 

[Big Cuz 15]

i like vonleh and stauskas as potential fits for the team. if we move up to the top 3, any of the top guys wouldn't be bad either. we have our top 2 players, we need great complimentary players to surround them with.

 

[bajaden]

Randle has no post game, and his face up game is pretty much straight line bully-drives. He will spend 2-3 years adjusting and developing his offense and in the mean time will rely on his non-existent team defense to get PT (he's decent man-to-man, so I guess, Randle is similar to JT defensively). Vonleh is just a bunch of tools right now: underdeveloped faceup game from HS, underdeveloped post game Crean started to teach him, lack of defensive awareness (another guy, similar to JT defensively). Exum is just a guy with excellent foot speed, lack of weight (maybe, this complain will go away by draft day), decent shooting mechanics and good work ethic. By the end of the season looks like Parker is average shooter/passer/defender, who can score. We need more of those, right?
Everyone at the top has serious holes in their games, that will take at least a couple of years to fix. Embiid and Wiggins look like they might be plugged right in as defensive roleplayers, though Embiid will have to chase PFs around perimeter, and I don't imagine him to be particular effective doing this.
In the end the best player from this draft might easily be some very athletic guy like RHJ (50/50 at best though on him declating), if he develops offensive game to catch up with his aggression and excellent defense. As for offensive project in Capela, what do you need from Kings PF other than high quality finishing and occasional mid-range jumper (guy is hitting 70% FTs over last 15 games, although on small sample size)?

Well, what Stauskas can do, that Belinelli doesn't? Exciting, right?

Look up Michigan-Indiana game on youtube. When Ferrell was pestering Stauskas, he couldn't get any offensive rhythm. Kudos to Stauskas for not forcing it and taking a step back, but if you're expecting Stauskas to be some kind of prominent creator at the pro level, you're setting yourself up for disappointment. Belinelli was a pretty efficient primary scorer on a very good European team at the age of 21, and have a few NBA season, producing the same assist numbers, Stauskas had this year.

Stauskas scored 21 points in that game going 6 for 11 overall and 8 of 9 from the freethrow line. He got Ferrell into foul trouble and almost fouled him out of the game. I guess we see what we want to see. I can find negatives in just about any player if that's what I'm looking for. None of these guys are perfect. What I find attractive about Stauskas is his dedication to improving, along with the dramatic improvement he made from last season. There were a few players he struggled against, but not that many. Kentucky had a difficult time guarding him until they put Hawkins on him. Hawkins is probably Kentucky's best defender at the guard position. Hawkins and Ferrell are both lightning quick PG's. So if you want to say that they were quicker than Stauskas, I say so what, they should be.

 

[bajaden]

I think Randle is a better player today than Vonleh. I think Vonleh three years from now is going to better than Randle because of his length, rebounding ability, and shot blocking capability. Regarding the intangibles, I give Vonleh the edge. Everytime I see him he has the aggression that I like to see in big guys; he's also not afraid to take the big shot. I don't see anything negative in Randle regarding the intangibles; I just haven't seen as many positives as I've seen in Vonleh. Sometimes you get a hunch about guys, and I have a hunch Vonleh is going to be very good in the pros. Like just about everybody, it will take some time. Lastly, Vonleh would be a better complementary player next to Cousins because of his length ability to alter shots.

I agree that Randle is a better player today than Vonleh. I like Vonleh because of his athleticism, height, and wingspan along with some of the basic skill sets he has. But there's no denying that he has a lot of work to do. He does have a good outside shot, but his release is very slow. His post game is very basic, and he does have good touch around the basket, plus he uses both hands. So there's a lot to like, but patience is going to be required. As you said, its going to take a couple of years.

I like Randle. He has a never stop motor, and he's aggressive. As a matter of fact, Calapari has toned down his aggressiveness. One thing you didn't see this season with Randle is his face up game. In highschool Randle had a very nice 16 to 18 foot jumpshot, and he also took an occasional three. He has a nice stroke at the freethrow line. The only thing I can think of is that Calapari told him he didn't want him shooting away from the basket. About the only time he took a jumpshot his season was if the clock was down to the last tick. Remember, no one knew that Cousins had a good outside shot either. Randle's measurements are going to be a factor. If he measures out at 6'9" or above, I think he goes in the top five. Teams like aggressive players. You can always tone down a player, but its hard to light a fire in one.

 

[Gilles]

Stauskas scored 21 points in that game going 6 for 11 overall and 8 of 9 from the freethrow line. He got Ferrell into foul trouble and almost fouled him out of the game. I guess we see what we want to see. I can find negatives in just about any player if that's what I'm looking for. None of these guys are perfect. What I find attractive about Stauskas is his dedication to improving, along with the dramatic improvement he made from last season. There were a few players he struggled against, but not that many. Kentucky had a difficult time guarding him until they put Hawkins on him. Hawkins is probably Kentucky's best defender at the guard position. Hawkins and Ferrell are both lightning quick PG's. So if you want to say that they were quicker than Stauskas, I say so what, they should be.

Ferrell got 2 fouls defending Stauskas, one of which was to prevent 3-pointer at the end of the game. He got all his points, playing off the ball - again kudos for him to step back, give the ball to LeVert/Walton and just move on offense looking for cracks. Stauskas is a pretty safe pick, and moving into teens he becomes a reasonable choice.

 

[bajaden]

Ferrell got 2 fouls defending Stauskas, one of which was to prevent 3-pointer at the end of the game. He got all his points, playing off the ball - again kudos for him to step back, give the ball to LeVert/Walton and just move on offense looking for cracks. Stauskas is a pretty safe pick, and moving into teens he becomes a reasonable choice.

What do you think of LeVert? Plus, what do you think of Boatright?

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

I have no real issue with Stauskas, but he's probably outside my top 10 or 15 at this point. The Kings would have to do some serious wheeling and dealing in order for him to even enter the conversation.

 

[Gilles]

LeVert would be an excellent prospect, if he showed, that he can run the team. As SG prospect, Caris looks ok, but is too frail to do damage inside, and will be relegated to creating from outside, plus his defense turns into liability against SGs. I guess, if Hamilton was able to move well with his frame, fighting through traffic inside, LeVert might be able to score on the move, though he doesn't have Rip's motor.
Boatright is a junior, so I don't believe he's declaring. It feels like he agreed to step back this year, while Napear took full reins, but it doesn't seem like Boatright was comfortable in this new role. Next season he will step into Bazz's shoes, and might replicate his season stat-wise. But Boatright is tiny, though not really quick as well. Maybe as a 3rd guard somewhere, perfecting his game, while waiting for his chance? Don't see him being ready to be plugged in as a backup immediately.

 

[Return To Glory]

OK, now I'm going to tell you what I really think. I love Stauskas, and I didn't start the season that way. I think I had more fun watching him than just about anyone else in college this season. And that was a big surprise. If someone thinks he's not quick, then he just hasn't watched him play much. He's a very good athlete, which also surprised me, because I had pretty much written him off as a player that just went to the corner and shot three's. What you stated is dead on. He can kill you from the outside, from midrange, and he can get to the basket. He can create his own shot. He can catch and shoot, and he can come off screens and shoot. He has one of the quickest releases I've seen in a while.

He's also not just a good passer, he's an outstanding passer that can create shots for others. He's really a shooting guard with PG talents. I would take Nik Stauskas over either of the Harrison twins ten times out of ten. And if Kentucky had Stauskas on their team instead of Aaron Harrison, I'd be in Vegas putting money down on Kentucky, because shooting wise, Aaron Harrison can't hold a candle to Stauskas. The only question that lurks about Stauskas is whether he can play defense at the NBA level. If he can, then I predict he can be a star. Kingster wanted to talk about improvement. Well take a look at Stauskas last year, and then this year. That's what improvement looks like. Personally, I think Stauskas will be fine on defense if he's on a team that preaches team defense. He's a high BBIQ guy with good athleticism and he has a good work ethic.

Don't make the mistake of comparing this guy to Fredette. Fredette never played a lick of defense at BYU because he was asked not to. That hardly helped him when he got to the NBA. Stauskas has much better handles than Fredette, and he's a better athlete than Fredette. He's not what the Kings need right now, but I'd damm well take him if everyone else I want is gone. Hell, I might take him over some of them.

Do you think he could one day possibly play PG (maybe in the backcourt with McLemore)?

 

[biltalent]

I'm not sure about Vonleh. On the paper, he seems to be a perfect fit for the kings, but I'm worried about these "low IQ" plays that he shows. I don't know if this is something that can be taught? And, will he be available at 7-9?

I like Adreian Payne a lot. Sure he doesn't have the upside of a 19 years old. But on the other hand, he will be more likely to contribute right away, from the start. And for the kings, given the current situation, this isn't the worst thing
Do you guys think he would be a good fit next to cousins?
He's athletic (the front offices clearly loves athletic players), can stretch the floor (important regarding the lack of shooting consistenty) and is a high character guy. The only thing I question is his defense. Does anyone know more about his defense? I read that shot-blocking isn't one of his strengths (wingspan?) but if he's a good team-defender I'd be okay with that.

If we just some could aquire a second pick and use it for a guy like Payne/Stauskas...

 

[bajaden]

Do you think he could one day possibly play PG (maybe in the backcourt with McLemore)?

Well I wouldn't draft him with that in mind, but eventually, with the right matchups they could be on the floor together. I see Stauskas as a SG, more in the vein of Christie. Not defensively of course, but being able to run the offense from time to time and taking the pressure off the PG. The way Christie and Bibby worked together.

I'm not sure about Vonleh. On the paper, he seems to be a perfect fit for the kings, but I'm worried about these "low IQ" plays that he shows. I don't know if this is something that can be taught? And, will he be available at 7-9?

I like Adreian Payne a lot. Sure he doesn't have the upside of a 19 years old. But on the other hand, he will be more likely to contribute right away, from the start. And for the kings, given the current situation, this isn't the worst thing
Do you guys think he would be a good fit next to cousins?
He's athletic (the front offices clearly loves athletic players), can stretch the floor (important regarding the lack of shooting consistenty) and is a high character guy. The only thing I question is his defense. Does anyone know more about his defense? I read that shot-blocking isn't one of his strengths (wingspan?) but if he's a good team-defender I'd be okay with that.

If we just some could aquire a second pick and use it for a guy like Payne/Stauskas...

All mistakes aren't necessarily a sign of low BBIQ. Sometimes their just mistakes. Cousins has very good BBIQ, but he still turns the ball over more than he should. Usually a sign of low IQ is not being in the right place on the floor. Like dragging your defender into the post area when your center is trying to post up. Not knowing where and when to rotate on defense. So I'm not really sure what your referring to with Vonleh. He's raw, but he appears to understand the game. Nothing leaped out at me when I watched him play, other than he's very young and lacks experience.

I have mixed emotions about Payne. I agree that he's probably more ready than some others, but I question how much upside he has left. He'll certainly find a spot on a team somewhere because he can shoot the ball, and stretch fours seem to be the rage right now. He does occasionally block a shot, but he's not a prolific shotblocker. He's a decent rebounder at the college level, but he needs to strengthen his lower body. As far as fitting next to Cousins, I think his ability to hit the outside shot would help spread the floor. Right now its almost criminal what their doing to Cousins every time he touches the ball. He's doubled and sometimes tripled. Some of it is because they don't respect our shooters, and some of it is because someone, like McLemore, or Williams is star gazing near the key making it easy for their defender to guard them and double Cousins.

 

[biltalent]

All mistakes aren't necessarily a sign of low BBIQ. Sometimes their just mistakes. Cousins has very good BBIQ, but he still turns the ball over more than he should. Usually a sign of low IQ is not being in the right place on the floor. Like dragging your defender into the post area when your center is trying to post up. Not knowing where and when to rotate on defense. So I'm not really sure what your referring to with Vonleh. He's raw, but he appears to understand the game. Nothing leaped out at me when I watched him play, other than he's very young and lacks experience.

I have mixed emotions about Payne. I agree that he's probably more ready than some others, but I question how much upside he has left. He'll certainly find a spot on a team somewhere because he can shoot the ball, and stretch fours seem to be the rage right now. He does occasionally block a shot, but he's not a prolific shotblocker. He's a decent rebounder at the college level, but he needs to strengthen his lower body. As far as fitting next to Cousins, I think his ability to hit the outside shot would help spread the floor. Right now its almost criminal what their doing to Cousins every time he touches the ball. He's doubled and sometimes tripled. Some of it is because they don't respect our shooters, and some of it is because someone, like McLemore, or Williams is star gazing near the key making it easy for their defender to guard them and double Cousins.

First, thanks for your analysis! Sorry for not explaining precisely what I was to trying to say. I referred to the DraftExpress Scouting report.

At 12:00, it states that Vonleh has a "low IQ as a P/R defender", is "out of position too often off the ball" and has to improve his team defense. That's why I'm a bit sceptical, but of course, this is just second-hand information

 

[Tetsujin]

First, thanks for your analysis! Sorry for not explaining precisely what I was to trying to say. I referred to the DraftExpress Scouting report.

At 12:00, it states that Vonleh has a "low IQ as a P/R defender", is "out of position too often off the ball" and has to improve his team defense. That's why I'm a bit sceptical, but of course, this is just second-hand information

I'd be wary of putting too much behind what you see. As much as I respect the hell out of the work DraftExpress puts into scouting, their video work tends to generalize things a bit too much for my liking.

And, as this season has shown, it's not wholly impossible to teach someone how to guard the pick and roll. While not exactly perfect, JT and Cuz have improved their pick and roll defense a lot since the start of the season and having the opportunity to familiarize themselves with Malone's defensive scheme.

 

[Big Cuz 15]

I'm not sure about Vonleh. On the paper, he seems to be a perfect fit for the kings, but I'm worried about these "low IQ" plays that he shows. I don't know if this is something that can be taught? And, will he be available at 7-9?

I like Adreian Payne a lot. Sure he doesn't have the upside of a 19 years old. But on the other hand, he will be more likely to contribute right away, from the start. And for the kings, given the current situation, this isn't the worst thing
Do you guys think he would be a good fit next to cousins?
He's athletic (the front offices clearly loves athletic players), can stretch the floor (important regarding the lack of shooting consistenty) and is a high character guy. The only thing I question is his defense. Does anyone know more about his defense? I read that shot-blocking isn't one of his strengths (wingspan?) but if he's a good team-defender I'd be okay with that.

If we just some could aquire a second pick and use it for a guy like Payne/Stauskas...

it would be nice to have two picks..

cuz
vonleh
rudy
stauskas
ray

balanced roster with shooting, unselfish players, plenty of d. make it happen gerbil!

 

[Gilles]

I'm not sure about Vonleh. On the paper, he seems to be a perfect fit for the kings, but I'm worried about these "low IQ" plays that he shows. I don't know if this is something that can be taught? And, will he be available at 7-9?

I like Adreian Payne a lot. Sure he doesn't have the upside of a 19 years old. But on the other hand, he will be more likely to contribute right away, from the start. And for the kings, given the current situation, this isn't the worst thing
Do you guys think he would be a good fit next to cousins?
He's athletic (the front offices clearly loves athletic players), can stretch the floor (important regarding the lack of shooting consistenty) and is a high character guy. The only thing I question is his defense. Does anyone know more about his defense? I read that shot-blocking isn't one of his strengths (wingspan?) but if he's a good team-defender I'd be okay with that.

If we just some could aquire a second pick and use it for a guy like Payne/Stauskas...

Payne should be at least an adequate defender after spending 4 years under Tom Izzo, but in the post and boxing out he lacks lower body strength and given his age I wouldn't expect massive improvements. And this is basically the essence of such a pick: after 4 years under an excellent coach, who develops players really well, you should expect to get, what you see.
Vonleh on the other hand put 25 pounds last summer, was moving people with ease, and early in the season everybody was panicking and fouled him almost every post up as he was routinely getting a deep position (at some point in early January he was leading Division I in FTs per 40 minutes). As time went on people noticed that his physicality wasn't leading to good finishes as his post skills are far behind (FT rate dropped dramatically by the end of the season) as he was always a face-up forward in HS. And this was the source of his high TOs. And in a couple of moments, where DX is arguing, he should've made a pass, there's clearly no angle. And that back screen action - first play on his bad D - even good defensive teams in college get beat by such plays. Point is drafting Vonleh you should be prepared to get maybe good 3rd big by the end of rookie season, maybe only 4th. He will need time to grow further into his body, and allow skillset to catch up.

 

[The_Jamal]

Well I wouldn't draft him with that in mind, but eventually, with the right matchups they could be on the floor together. I see Stauskas as a SG, more in the vein of Christie. Not defensively of course, but being able to run the offense from time to time and taking the pressure off the PG. The way Christie and Bibby worked together.


All mistakes aren't necessarily a sign of low BBIQ. Sometimes their just mistakes. Cousins has very good BBIQ, but he still turns the ball over more than he should. Usually a sign of low IQ is not being in the right place on the floor. Like dragging your defender into the post area when your center is trying to post up. Not knowing where and when to rotate on defense. So I'm not really sure what your referring to with Vonleh. He's raw, but he appears to understand the game. Nothing leaped out at me when I watched him play, other than he's very young and lacks experience.

I have mixed emotions about Payne. I agree that he's probably more ready than some others, but I question how much upside he has left. He'll certainly find a spot on a team somewhere because he can shoot the ball, and stretch fours seem to be the rage right now. He does occasionally block a shot, but he's not a prolific shotblocker. He's a decent rebounder at the college level, but he needs to strengthen his lower body. As far as fitting next to Cousins, I think his ability to hit the outside shot would help spread the floor. Right now its almost criminal what their doing to Cousins every time he touches the ball. He's doubled and sometimes tripled. Some of it is because they don't respect our shooters, and some of it is because someone, like McLemore, or Williams is star gazing near the key making it easy for their defender to guard them and double Cousins.

Actually not really. His raw TOV numbers are inflated because he has control of the rock and shoots more than just about anyone in the league. His TOV rate is about average if you factor in how much ball he gets during a game.

 

[Padrino]

All mistakes aren't necessarily a sign of low BBIQ. Sometimes their just mistakes.

indeed. as a general comment, "basketball IQ" is a term often lazily used to quantify a player's perceived understanding of the game. but that perception does not always reflect a player's actual understanding of the game. jimmer fredette has an exceedingly high basketball IQ, but he often looked lost on the court as a member of the sacramento kings. the speed and physical nature of the game at the nba level makes it difficult for even the smartest collegiate basketball players to transition effectively to the pros. what we might call the "middle class" of the nba is full of guys who were simply able to adapt despite lacking the otherworldly talent of someone like lebron james or kevin durant or even demarcus cousins...

that said, i consider most "one-and-done" prospects far too inexperienced to make any determination about how their "basketball IQ"--whether considered "low" or "high"--will translate to the nba. it clicks for some guys, and it doesn't for others. it's just the risk that franchises collectively took when they determined that selecting teenagers in the nba draft was a conventionally wise decision. the draft has always been a roll-of-the-dice, but the nba has invited further bust potential into the equation by skewing so young amongst its rookie classes. i suspect this is why adam silver has made it his first priority as commissioner to raise the age limit for the draft. i think he wants to bring a bit more quality control back to the proceedings, and i tend to agree with that sentiment...

no matter what, though, young players must learn on the job. sometimes a mistake is just a mistake, and, as in most professions, the success of an nba career is dependent on a player's ability to minimize his mistakes. of course, the best learn from those mistakes, but there's no mathematical formula, no advanced metrics to determine whether or not a young player will develop a mental readiness for the nba. it's like what they say about great nfl quarterbacks; the game moves in slow-motion for them. they're able to read entire defensive sets in the span of only a few seconds as they drop back into the pocket. great nba players are similar; they can read the game quickly. but there aren't a lot of 19-20 year old basketball players who are prepared to do so at the professional level, so you roll the dice with whatever information and intuition is at your disposal...

 

[Dime Dropper]

Personally I think Vonleh and his potential is being over-rated. He might turn out to be a good man defender but I don't think he has the ability to anchor the defense or be a shot-blocking presence. If I had the choice between him and Randle, I'd take Randle 10 times out of 10, regardless of fit. I think Randle is being under-rated. Not an ideal fit and not my number 1 choice, but I would not at all be surprised if he turns into an All-Star down the line. He's already stronger than most PFs in the NBA and I'm willing to bet with anyone about that. I also think he'll have more success in the NBA when he can't be double teamed constantly and have whole defenses collapse in on him. Apart from being skilled, he's a smart player and a much better passer than his 1apg would indicate.

I'd take Cauley-Stein over Vonleh as he's a much better shot-blocker and has the potential to really anchor the defense. He's very fluid.

As for Stauskas, I do kind of like him, but I'm not sure how much. But I think it's a moot point with Ben here and the FO so high on him. We're not taking Stauskas unless Ben gets traded which is all just very unlikely. And there's going to be multiple other guys available that are better, and fit better, than him.

I like Smart for the record even though most seem to really dislike him. No point getting into this any more, though. I have to say I'd be pretty happy with any of Wiggins, Parker, Exum, Randle, Embiid, Smart, Cauley-Stein, Capela. I'd put money down that we'll go with Gordon, though. Not sure how I feel about that yet.

 

[jcwkings]

Randle is getting the "Kevin Love" treatment. People look at physical measurements and easily discount actual basketball ability and intangibles. On pure skill level, only Parker rivals Randle in this draft class.

 

[Gilles]

Personally I think Vonleh and his potential is being over-rated. He might turn out to be a good man defender but I don't think he has the ability to anchor the defense or be a shot-blocking presence. If I had the choice between him and Randle, I'd take Randle 10 times out of 10, regardless of fit. I think Randle is being under-rated. Not an ideal fit and not my number 1 choice, but I would not at all be surprised if he turns into an All-Star down the line. He's already stronger than most PFs in the NBA and I'm willing to bet with anyone about that. I also think he'll have more success in the NBA when he can't be double teamed constantly and have whole defenses collapse in on him. Apart from being skilled, he's a smart player and a much better passer than his 1apg would indicate.

I'd take Cauley-Stein over Vonleh as he's a much better shot-blocker and has the potential to really anchor the defense. He's very fluid.

As for Stauskas, I do kind of like him, but I'm not sure how much. But I think it's a moot point with Ben here and the FO so high on him. We're not taking Stauskas unless Ben gets traded which is all just very unlikely. And there's going to be multiple other guys available that are better, and fit better, than him.

I like Smart for the record even though most seem to really dislike him. No point getting into this any more, though. I have to say I'd be pretty happy with any of Wiggins, Parker, Exum, Randle, Embiid, Smart, Cauley-Stein, Capela. I'd put money down that we'll go with Gordon, though. Not sure how I feel about that yet.

Every skilled big is double-teamed in college, because very good shooting is scarce commodity. Some teams even double-team automatically, regardless of opponents' ability to hit long-range bombs, so this constant excuse "Oh, he got double-teamed!" is not a particularly strong one. And I think, physicality (ability to get and hold position) and strength are a bit different: as an example Vonleh moved Payne however he wanted, while Randle wasn't particularly successful, despite Randle being listed 12-15 pounds bigger. And given that LeBron complained about physicality of NBA PFs, I wouldn't bet on Randle taking NBA by storm based just on his power game.
My pessimistic view of Randle's impact in the pros is based on the fact, that he seamlessly transitioned his game from HS to college, and was still looking just good, not dominant in the second part of the season against better, more athletic opposition. Transition to the pros will be tricky, and he will most likely have to redefine his game. Non-existing right hand finishing and overall lack of length will earn him a lot of swats. And on D he will have trouble defending teams, who doesn't rely on ISO, plus again his average length puts natural limits on his ability to be a good defender.
Vonleh is just physical tools at this point, plus good handles for PF and shooting touch, but he showed very good work ethic in weight room last summer, so essentially you're betting on him continuing his progress, but now in skills department.
Right now I would try to move down to get Capela or WCS, in the process gathering some second-rounders to get a shot at Walter Tavares and 3&D guys like James Bell from Villanova, Fuquan Edwin from Seton Hall and a couple more.

 

[Gilles]

Randle is getting the "Kevin Love" treatment. People look at physical measurements and easily discount actual basketball ability and intangibles. On pure skill level, only Parker rivals Randle in this draft class.

Love does suck defensively like everybody was predicting. He produces, because of excellent lower body strength allows him to get rebounds and excellent shooting touch gives him a lot of options offensively, and these are two things Randle isn't exactly known for. Still rebounding does translate, so he will be getting those, but what he will do between rebounding attempts is not clear.
P.S. As SF Parker is average shooter and passer. Current crop is all about potential, skills catching up physical tools, so while Parker is indeed most skilled one, I'm not sure it's worth bragging.

 

[Glenn]

Love does suck defensively like everybody was predicting. He produces, because of excellent lower body strength allows him to get rebounds and excellent shooting touch gives him a lot of options offensively, and these are two things Randle isn't exactly known for. Still rebounding does translate, so he will be getting those, but what he will do between rebounding attempts is not clear.
P.S. As SF Parker is average shooter and passer. Current crop is all about potential, skills catching up physical tools, so while Parker is indeed most skilled one, I'm not sure it's worth bragging.

They are kids and it is that fact that makes the draft a bit of a crap shoot. The teams that draft well know what skills translate to the NBA and know what holes in the game can be "fixed" with work. They also know that gym rats tend to do better than people who have survived quite nicely on their superior athleticism and have not needed to work hard. Which players will look good 5 years from now? How do you predict it? I have been very good with some players and horribly bad with others.