2014 Draft Prospects:

[funkykingston]

Embiid is the sole player in the top seven that I worry about flat-out busting. Like Randle, he has the physical tools to dominate in college, but is so new to the game that you can't really tell if he will be more Olajuwon or Olowokandi.

That's actually a really interesting best case/worst case scenario. All three guys started playing organized basketball late (16 for Dream, 17 for Kandi and Embiid) In fact, Olowokandi's sophomore statline looks VERY similar to what Embiid has done so far this year.

Name Year School Age GP Min Pts FG FGA FG% FT% TOT Asts Stls Blks TOs PFs
Joel Embiid 2013/14 Kansas 19 11 21 11 4 5.5 68.3 65 6.6 1.1 1.2 2.3 1.5 3.5
Olowokandi 1996/97 UOP 21 19.0 22.8 10.9 3.8 6.6 57.0 33.3 6.6 0.4 0.3 1.7 2.2 2.5

One big difference is that Embiid is at Kansas and not UOP meaning both better coaching and better competition. Also, Embiid's FT% hints at a more natural stroke (which my eyes confirms) and his higher assist and steal numbers tell me he's both more active and has a better understanding of the game at this stage.

I don't think Embiid is Dream 2 but using those two guys as my scale I'd say he's closer to being Olojuwon than Olowokandi. Especially watching his footwork and moves in the post. He has a very instinctive offensive game where Olowokandi looked stiff and mechanical but scored anyway because of his size and strength advantage.

Of course, the biggest issue with Kandi was between the ears and that' s always very hard to judge.

One reason I'd be comfortable with WCS is that he's not the most talented kid and I don't see star potential but I think I have a very good idea of what he'll do on the next level. Run the floor, rebounder, be a weakside help defender/block shots and be a nice athletic big to pair with Cousins.

 

[Hadlowe]

Embiid is already pulling off moves only a few in NBA can, he's rebounding and playing defense at elite level, granted he has no problem to get into foul trouble while doing that. When he's on the floor, Embiid is a clear #1 option. All this with only 3 years of experience. The main thing that can really stop him is inability to improve his lower body strength-wise, and he already put on 10 pounds since the summer, though that could just be extra chips and hamburgers.

Pulling off moves is only a tiny portion of what I'm hoping to see out of that second big-man as we really don't need a ton of offensive help (and haven't for a few years now). 90% of what I'm looking for is the ability to read opponent offenses and make snap adjustments to shut down drives or cover the perimeter.

NCAA basketball is not great for preparing players to defend at the next level or evaluating their ability to do so. You can hide weak defenders by running zones all day long and by packing the paint in ways that the rules prevent at the NBA level. Embiid has all the right physical tools to be an elite defensive presence, but the space between the ears, as Funkykingston said, is still a big question mark. Can he track his man plus two other players to make proper weakside rotations? I am confident that he can hedge and recover to his man on pick and rolls, but what about when Cousins is the one hedging?

Assuming that Wiggins and Parker are off the board, Embiid is my first choice. If he develops as he appears to be doing now, Embiid/Cousins is a nasty frontline for opposing teams to deal with. But I make that pick knowing that there is bust potential there.

 

[miltonap]

Just saw a few Cauley-Stein videos. Of course Embiid is my first choice but Cauley Stein fits exactly what we need next to Cuz. Mobile big man that can rebound and block shots. His offensive game is raw but who cares. The dude can play defense

 

[bajaden]

I think you are drafting Randle too low. I think he's a top 3 pick. Him and Embiid are the most NBA ready players from what I've seen thus far. Aaron Gordon will probably be drafted by the kings

Did you read what I said? I said that I didn't think this is the order they would be drafted in, but the order I would take them in, solely based on the needs of the Kings. Doesn't mean I don't think Randle is a great prospect.

 

[Glenn]

Just saw a few Cauley-Stein videos. Of course Embiid is my first choice but Cauley Stein fits exactly what we need next to Cuz. Mobile big man that can rebound and block shots. His offensive game is raw but who cares. The dude can play defense

No kidding. We may be on a course where we can pick him and I would walk away whistling. There may not be much of an upside as Embiid but there is no bust potential either. He could use a little weight.

 

[bajaden]

Randle has the potential to be great, but he is clearly just physically overpowering the kids he is playing in college right now. That won't often be the case in the NBA, and we'll have to see how he develops his game further.

Embiid is the sole player in the top seven that I worry about flat-out busting. Like Randle, he has the physical tools to dominate in college, but is so new to the game that you can't really tell if he will be more Olajuwon or Olowokandi. It's going to take him a couple of years to polish his game with the Kings being in Win Now mode after this draft.

Olowokandi was never the defensive player at UOP that Embiid has shown to be. At worse, Embiid will be a very good defensive player. If that's all he going to be, then he's on a par with Cauley-Stein. The reason I, and most scouts have him higher is because of the offensive potential he's shown in such a short time. He might be a bit of a gamble, but its a gamble I'd be willing to take.

 

[bajaden]

I think you are drafting Randle too low. I think he's a top 3 pick. Him and Embiid are the most NBA ready players from what I've seen thus far. Aaron Gordon will probably be drafted by the kings

Disagree, I think Jabari Parker is the most NBA ready player.

 

[Glenn]

baja, you and everyone else seems to like Gordon just outside of the 6th pick or so (Cauley-Stein territory roughly ) I have seen a couple of his games and have not been excited. He is not the same as TRob in the way he plays but I have TRob feelings about him in that he might not turn out to be all that good compared to expectations. His size bothers me and I do not see the Blake-like athleticism. It is possible I am going blind but somehow I am not seeing what others are seeing. I know that what I have seen worries me a lot if we should pick him.

 

[bajaden]

For those questioning Rande's size, he's been measured officially three times. Once each at the Jordan Brand Classic, the Nike Summit, and the Lebron James academy. His first measurement which I beleive was in 2011, he measured out at 6'9" in shoes with a 6'11" wingspan. His second measurement he measured out at 6'9.5" with a 6'11" wingspan. His third and final measurement before entering college he measured out at 6'10" with a 7'0" wingspan. So take those for what their worth. We go through this with just about every big man. I remember when everyone was positive that Blake Griffin was really 6'8", but he turned out to be 6'10" in shoes. In general, the measurements from the Jordan Brand Classic have held up pretty well. But we won't know for sure until the NBA combine. My guess is that he's at least 6'9" in shoes, which about the average for NBA PF's now. I know we all want to believe that most PF's are around 6'11", but its simply not true. The JT's of the world are more the exception now than the norm.

As far as Randle's potential, I think he's going to be a very good player. Someone compared him to Thomas Robinson, a popular player to compare to right now, but Randle has very good BBIQ, and is a decisive player in the post. His post game needs some refinement, but most young players just out of highschool need refinement to some part of their game. In highschool, he sported a very nice jumpshot, which has been absent for the most part at Kentucky. Probably coaches choice. Remember that Cousins suddenly developed a jumpshot upon his arrival at the Kings. Well, he had it all along, but Calapari wouldn't let him out of the post to use it. I suspect he's done the same thing with Randle. He has enough shooters on his team, and doesn't need to make Randle into another one when he's more valuable in the post with his scoring and rebounding. He may never turn into a superstar, but he's going to be a very good player.

I know a lot of you haven't seen Dante Exum play, but don't miss the boat on this kid. He's going to be a star in the NBA. He's a freak athlete that would make IT look slow, and he 6'6" with PG skills, and a killer attitude on the court. He could end up being the best player in this draft.

 

[bajaden]

baja, you and everyone else seems to like Gordon just outside of the 6th pick or so (Cauley-Stein territory roughly ) I have seen a couple of his games and have not been excited. He is not the same as TRob in the way he plays but I have TRob feelings about him in that he might not turn out to be all that good compared to expectations. His size bothers me and I do not see the Blake-like athleticism. It is possible I am going blind but somehow I am not seeing what others are seeing. I know that what I have seen worries me a lot if we should pick him.

For one thing he lacks Griffin's size, but he is a very good athlete. Remember that he's playing in an entirely different system in which he's not featured the way Griffin was. Arizona is a very good team without Gordon, so as a result, he's being asked to do different things than Griffin was at Oklahoma. Gordon is playing away from the basket a lot, and Robinson was strictly a post player at Kansas. Also remember, what we got from Robinson was after 3 years of college. This is Gordon's freshman year, and in my opinion he's a better all around player right now than Robinson was after three years of college. Now you can say that's not saying much, but how much better do you think Gordon will be two years from now?

Having said all that, if my choice is between Gordon and Cauley-Stein, I'm picking Stein, or Vonleh if he's the other choice. There's another kid that I've been waiting to see, and he's finally going to get his chance soon, and that's Chris Walker from Florida. He was suspended to start the season for academic reasons. He's a very athletic 6'10" PF with shotblocking potential.

 

[Glenn]

For one thing he lacks Griffin's size, but he is a very good athlete. Remember that he's playing in an entirely different system in which he's not featured the way Griffin was. Arizona is a very good team without Gordon, so as a result, he's being asked to do different things than Griffin was at Oklahoma. Gordon is playing away from the basket a lot, and Robinson was strictly a post player at Kansas. Also remember, what we got from Robinson was after 3 years of college. This is Gordon's freshman year, and in my opinion he's a better all around player right now than Robinson was after three years of college. Now you can say that's not saying much, but how much better do you think Gordon will be two years from now?

Having said all that, if my choice is between Gordon and Cauley-Stein, I'm picking Stein, or Vonleh if he's the other choice. There's another kid that I've been waiting to see, and he's finally going to get his chance soon, and that's Chris Walker from Florida. He was suspended to start the season for academic reasons. He's a very athletic 6'10" PF with shotblocking potential.

We agree on almost all counts. Maybe my vision is clearing. That is very much a good thing.

Considering the fascination with offensive players, I think and am hoping that defensive players either drop or are available to us. If we are between 6-10 there are comparitively quite a few that can help us. We are in an odd position as a bottom dweller in that we are in more in need of defense than offense. My fear is that the FO will turn a blind eye to the big tall guys who can play defense.

 

[Gilles]

Comparing Embiid and Olowokandi: 68FG% vs 57FG% is a huge difference considering the amount Embiid creates. As (1.1/1.5) vs (0.4/2.2) in A/TO ratio or what an impact 2 years of college experience vs third of the season. Plus this thing called defense.

WCS came into Kentucky training camp with the same body he left with last spring. Embiid reportedly already got another 10 pounds since the summer, so come draft time after training course in some athletic academy you might be looking at 265 pound PF/C, and improved lower body strength might just improve his athleticism, not slow him down.

Aaron Gordon doesn't have many skills and for elite run&jump athlete, who is mainly a finisher, .518 on 2p attempts is really bad. You could say he has some touch to convert .39 on 3-pointers, but then you look at his FT%. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson might just have better future as NBA forward on this Arizona team.

Randle has standing reach of 8'10", so he's exactly at the low end of impactful NBA PFs and so far he hasn't shown the ability to counter defense. He decides, what he wants to do, and then goes for either a basket/FTs or a turnover. That just won't fly in the NBA. He has decent FT%, so jumpshot is a reasonable bet. Whether it will be a real weapon, not clear at this moment. Then we start talking about defense...Not saying he busts. Randle is much more skilled than, say, Bennett or Robinson, but he will likely have to re-invent himself and doesn't seem to be playing on instinct. At top-5 I don't think it's worth it.

Chris Walker has ego that makes pre-draft T-Rob look too humble. He weighs 205 pounds, even his best HS friend acknowledges he's far behind on team play, so for the moment he's just a very athletic 6'10" guy. So Count me out.

 

[bajaden]

Comparing Embiid and Olowokandi: 68FG% vs 57FG% is a huge difference considering the amount Embiid creates. As (1.1/1.5) vs (0.4/2.2) in A/TO ratio or what an impact 2 years of college experience vs third of the season. Plus this thing called defense.

WCS came into Kentucky training camp with the same body he left with last spring. Embiid reportedly already got another 10 pounds since the summer, so come draft time after training course in some athletic academy you might be looking at 265 pound PF/C, and improved lower body strength might just improve his athleticism, not slow him down.

Aaron Gordon doesn't have many skills and for elite run&jump athlete, who is mainly a finisher, .518 on 2p attempts is really bad. You could say he has some touch to convert .39 on 3-pointers, but then you look at his FT%. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson might just have better future as NBA forward on this Arizona team.

Randle has standing reach of 8'10", so he's exactly at the low end of impactful NBA PFs and so far he hasn't shown the ability to counter defense. He decides, what he wants to do, and then goes for either a basket/FTs or a turnover. That just won't fly in the NBA. He has decent FT%, so jumpshot is a reasonable bet. Whether it will be a real weapon, not clear at this moment. Then we start talking about defense...Not saying he busts. Randle is much more skilled than, say, Bennett or Robinson, but he will likely have to re-invent himself and doesn't seem to be playing on instinct. At top-5 I don't think it's worth it.

Chris Walker has ego that makes pre-draft T-Rob look too humble. He weighs 205 pounds, even his best HS friend acknowledges he's far behind on team play, so for the moment he's just a very athletic 6'10" guy. So Count me out.

You know, to be fair to Walker, you just can't say he's behind on team play, when he wasn't allowed to even practice with the team until a week ago. He hasn't played organized basketball since his graduation from highschool. So yeah, I suspect he's a bit rusty. The weight your quoting, is his weight from highschool, so we don't even know what he weighs now. For all you know, he may have spent all his free time in the weight room. Your counting him out, and you haven't even seen him play. Very open minded of you!

 

[Gilles]

When a player, his friend no less, claims he's behind on playing basketball within team concept, that's really something. I believe he checked in at 205 pounds when he was allowed to practice. But again there's confidence, and then there's super arrogance. The only thing I really like about Walker is that he claims to be able to defend anybody. Taking pride in playing defense is very rare trait among prospects.

 

[Dime Dropper]

Just on Embiid - while I really like him and think he could be a great fit next to Cousins, I don't see the superstar potential, simply due to his hands. Maybe I'm wrong, but I can't remember any superstar big in the past who had very questionable hands. Everything else is to like, but he fumbles passes/rebounds too often to be a legit superstar in my eyes. That doesn't mean I wouldn't take him or that I don't really like him as a prospect, just that I don't think his ceiling is quite as high as some think. That said if he turns into a defensive anchor who has good footwork and a good low post game, with his athleticism, you're going to have an all-star level player.

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

The top 4 (Wiggins, Parker, Randle, Embiid) are obviously the cream of the crop, but I'm much more excited about the next 5 or so guys. I mean, that is our realistic draft range unless we get lucky in the lottery. By seasons end we'll likely be in that 7-10 range, and this years 7-10 range is a lot better than it has been in previous years. At least in terms of players that excite me as a basketball fan.

WCS has always been my #1 guy in terms of fit, need, and realistic draft position. I mean, obviously I'd take those top 4 head of him, but WCS should fall right within our draft range by seasons end.

I don't know if Aaron Gordon is necessarily the guy we want next to Cousins for the next 5+ years. Actually, he really isn't - but someone is going to be very happy with him at the back end of the top 10. I'm not the biggest fan, but at 18 I can see the potential.

I really need to watch Vonleh play a few more times.

 

[Kingster]

How does WCS compare with Robin Lopez when he was in college?

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

How does WCS compare with Robin Lopez when he was in college?

I like Lopez, but I've always felt that Lopez had the luxury of being very big, athletic, and surprisingly coordinated. As a result of his coordination he is a decent defender, and his size on top of it makes him an even better defender, but I don't know that he has defensive skills. I'm not sure if he is a good defender on purpose, or if he is a good defender because of his physical gifts. And because I think he is a decent defender and not a great defender I chalk that up to having the perfect body for a defensive minded rim protector without the skill for it. Still valuable, though. Still better than anyone on the Kings.

I think Cauley-Stein is a smarter defender. I think he has all the tools that Lopez does, but he's better (or will be better) at using them.

Hard to know this for sure, though, until we see him in the NBA.

 

[Gilles]

WCS is in dire need of weight gain. If he gets up to 255-260 (assuming 244 he's listed at is his current weight, because he has weak lower body, which means he can very likely become more explosive both vertically and laterally), strengthening legs and core, with his combination of timing and positioning, he's going to be a top-5 inside defender. Added strength will also help his below average defensive rebounding. I agree with Mass, that Lopez doesn't have great instincts defensively, but does have very good body.

 

[bajaden]

How does WCS compare with Robin Lopez when he was in college?

I saw the Lopez twins play a lot in college and obviously Brook was the better twin. Lopez and Stein are quite different. Stein is a far better athlete than Lopez is, and he has much better shotblocking instincts. Robin can't defend on the perimeter like Stein can, and if out there, he doesn't have the quickness to get back to defend the basket. Stein runs the floor much better. Gilles likes to make a bigger deal out of Steins weight than I think it is. He'll naturally get bigger and stronger once in the NBA. And just for Gilles info, when Stein reported to Kentucky originally at the beginning of the summer of his freshman year, he weighed around 219 pounds, and during that summer, he spent a lot of time practicing, and in the weight room, and by the time he started his freshman season, he had already added 22 pounds of muscle. How do I know that? I subscribe to the Kentucky team on line website. Does he need to get stronger? Of course, but I wouldn't call it dire. Now five years from now?

Stein is another that didn't start playing basketball until late in highschool. He was on the football team as a tight end, and he is also another volley ball player. There seems to be a connection between volley ball players and shot blockers.

 

[Glenn]

I saw the Lopez twins play a lot in college and obviously Brook was the better twin. Lopez and Stein are quite different. Stein is a far better athlete than Lopez is, and he has much better shotblocking instincts. Robin can't defend on the perimeter like Stein can, and if out there, he doesn't have the quickness to get back to defend the basket. Stein runs the floor much better. Gilles likes to make a bigger deal out of Steins weight than I think it is. He'll naturally get bigger and stronger once in the NBA. And just for Gilles info, when Stein reported to Kentucky originally at the beginning of the summer of his freshman year, he weighed around 219 pounds, and during that summer, he spent a lot of time practicing, and in the weight room, and by the time he started his freshman season, he had already added 22 pounds of muscle. How do I know that? I subscribe to the Kentucky team on line website. Does he need to get stronger? Of course, but I wouldn't call it dire. Now five years from now?

Stein is another that didn't start playing basketball until late in highschool. He was on the football team as a tight end, and he is also another volley ball player. There seems to be a connection between volley ball players and shot blockers.

Blocking is part of volleyball. It requires anticipation and foot speed.

For the Kings, Cauley-Stein excites me. If you want offense, look elsewhere. If you want a 7 ft off the ball shot blocker who also is quick enough to guard on the perimeter, he's your man. Pair him with Cuz, and you have a very fine duo. bajaden doesn't need my blessing on this issue, of course.

 

[Kingster]

I know a lot of you haven't seen Dante Exum play, but don't miss the boat on this kid. He's going to be a star in the NBA. He's a freak athlete that would make IT look slow, and he 6'6" with PG skills, and a killer attitude on the court. He could end up being the best player in this draft.

He sounds very intriguing. How is his shot and ballhandling?

 

[Gilles]

Payne moved him a bit in Michigan St. game and he's only 240. I just remember last year when large guys pushed him out of the way in a blink of an eye and he hasn't played any this year. WCS looks bigger, so I'm not sure 22 pounds went to lower body.

 

[bajaden]

Payne moved him a bit in Michigan St. game and he's only 240. I just remember last year when large guys pushed him out of the way in a blink of an eye and he hasn't played any this year. WCS looks bigger, so I'm not sure 22 pounds went to lower body.

No, probably not. Core training is something that's stressed in the NBA, and by most off season trainers. Here's the thing, I look at Stein as someone to play along side of Cousins. Of course that doesn't mean he won't play center from time to time, similar to how JT operated. But to just play along side Cuz, he doesn't need to be this big 260 pound guy. What he needs to do is defend the basket and play help defense. You want him to get stronger, but at the same time, you don't want him to lose his quickness. So the trick is to find that fine line between the two. What I would like to see him do, is work on his 12 to 15 foot jumpshot. He has one, but isn't very consistent with it. By the same token, he doesn't take it very often.

 

[bajaden]

He sounds very intriguing. How is his shot and ballhandling?

At the moment, he's a work in progress on the offensive side. I suspect that he'll get most of his points on alley opps, putbacks, and by running the floor on the break. Something he does extremely well by the way. He has a post game, but he has a way to go before being considered an option on offense. You drafting him for his defense. I'm sure his offense will improve once in the NBA, but it will take some time. He has a foul line jumpshot, but he needs to refine it.

 

[Gilles]

Exum handles well enough, that he's still in full control of the ball, when he gets 3 feet past his opponent - handles don't limit his in-game athleticism. He shot around .35 from three in Australian HS season, but I imagine those were all off-the-dribble pull-ups. He just hasn't played in a setting where you can evaluate his set shot. Exum struggled a bit inside the arc: shot something like .42 on 2-pointers during HS season, but I imagine every team tried to make him shoot jumpers, which he's not really good at the moment. Raw stats were pretty big as you would imagine with the huge talent discrepancy between him and competition.

 

[Dime Dropper]

At the moment, he's a work in progress on the offensive side. I suspect that he'll get most of his points on alley opps, putbacks, and by running the floor on the break. Something he does extremely well by the way. He has a post game, but he has a way to go before being considered an option on offense. You drafting him for his defense. I'm sure his offense will improve once in the NBA, but it will take some time. He has a foul line jumpshot, but he needs to refine it.

Kingster was asking about Exum, not WCS, I believe.

That said, I do really like Stein next to Cousins. Such a fluid athlete and a very good shot-blocker.

 

[Tetsujin]

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on...joel-embiid-not-your-typical-big-man-prospect

 

[bajaden]

Exum handles well enough, that he's still in full control of the ball, when he gets 3 feet past his opponent - handles don't limit his in-game athleticism. He shot around .35 from three in Australian HS season, but I imagine those were all off-the-dribble pull-ups. He just hasn't played in a setting where you can evaluate his set shot. Exum struggled a bit inside the arc: shot something like .42 on 2-pointers during HS season, but I imagine every team tried to make him shoot jumpers, which he's not really good at the moment. Raw stats were pretty big as you would imagine with the huge talent discrepancy between him and competition.

All that's true, as far as highschool competition in Australia goes, but not so at the U 19 games. He went up against Marcus Smart and dramaticly outplayed him. I also saw him play in three highschool all star games, including the Jordan Brand game, which pits international players against US players, and he played extremely well in that game. He was on the same team with Wiggins. He has no trouble getting to the basket, but he needs to finish better. Added muscle will certainly help in that dept. Athleticism wise, he's in the same class with Wiggins. He's a real talent. Of course there are no guarantee's. He'd sure look good as our starting PG. Great size and length. It'll be fun when all the workouts start, plus when we get the actually measurements from the combine.

 

[bajaden]

Kingster was asking about Exum, not WCS, I believe.

That said, I do really like Stein next to Cousins. Such a fluid athlete and a very good shot-blocker.

Ahhhh! My bad! Well, Gilles answered his question pretty well. He has pretty good handles, and his shot is fine, it just needs to be more consistent. Like a lot of stars on their current team, a lot of the offensive load gets piled on them. That's true in Exum's case as well. As a result, he took some ill advised shots from time to time. Jumpshots off the dribble that were off balance. Driving into traffic and throw up a wild shot. He shot the ball better in some of the all star games where he was surrounded by equally good players, and he didn't have to do all the scoring. I think in a more controlled inviorment his percentages will go up. He's a very good passer, and has played the PG position most of his career.