Well, I don't really believe that last part is true at all; in fact, most of the better teams over the past four decades have had their offense tilt towards featuring 2-3 guys, to the near exclusion of everyone else, to great success. The trick is to have the right 2-3 guys, and to also have a cast of "everyone else" that's good at doing stuff besides scoring, like setting picks, boxing out, and playing defense.
Now, my personal bias would rather that one of those 2-3 guys be the off guard than the point guard, but that's neither here nor there.
See this sounds accurate, but I don't think the data really bears it out. Here's a list of teams this season with less than 5 players averaging double digit scoring. It's a short list...
Clippers (21-11) #5 guy: DeAndre Jordan 9.3ppg
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TWolves (15-15) #5 guy: Rubio 8.9ppg
Nuggets (14-15) #5 guy: Faried 9.5ppg
Bobcats (14-17) #5 guy: MKG 9.1ppg
Raptors (13-15) #5 guy: Vasquez 9.5ppg
Grizzlies (13-16) #5 guy: Jon Leur 9.1ppg
Cavs (10-20) #5 guy: CJ Miles 8.4ppg
Knicks (9-21) #5 guy: Hardaway Jr. 9.1ppg
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Kings (9-20) #4 guy: McLemore 8.7ppg, #5 guy: Thornton 8.4ppg
There's a whopping 1 winning team on that list, and they didn't miss the cutoff by much. Also their third guy Jamal Crawford is coming off the bench. Minnesota is the closest comparison to our team with most of the shots going to a top 3 (Love, Martin, Pek) and they're having trouble winning games even with one of the best passing PGs in the game to distribute the shots. The Bobcats are one of the better defensive teams in the league right now so they can go a little further with a dysfunctional offense but they're not exactly lighting up the league over there either. Also, you may have noticed, we're
the only team in the league with less than 4 guys averaging double digit scoring. And we're also the only team even remotely close to having three guys average 20ppg. (okay, Golden State is in the ballpark)
The teams you're thinking of -- Miami, OKC, San Antonio, Indiana, Portland -- the elite teams all have a group of players who could be considered their big 3 but Miami is more balanced offensively than you think they are, with Bosh providing them with role-player type numbers and both Beasley and Allen playing key roles off the bench. OKC has a big 2 with Ibaka as the defensive enforcer. San Antonio is one of the most balanced offenses in the league (technically they belong on the above list but with two guys at 9.8ppg, I rounded up -- plus they only have 1 player averaging more than 15ppg so they don't really count in this context). Indiana has only 1 guy over 15ppg as well. Portland is built around two scorers, Aldridge and Lillard, and a bunch of glue guys. Am I missing anyone? Houston's big three includes Dwight Howard guarding the paint. The Warriors start one of the most unique stars in the league in Igoudala next to their potent scoring guards and Thompson is a designated shooter, not a guy who dominates the ball.
Now the Miami team of the past two seasons which won back to back championships fits the criteria, but they've got Lebron James and Dywane Wade. That's 2 of the top 10 players in the league. And if you look back at their team, they've moved away from a big 3 concentrated offense more and more. The first year was the most lopsided and they didn't win that year. They've adapted. The winning Lakers teams had 1 20ppg scorer. Dallas had 1 20ppg scorer. Boston won with a big 3 but they also had a top 10 defense and one of the best passing PGs in the league. Going all the way back to 2007 you get the Spurs with their big 3 in their prime and dominating the offense. But I don't even need to tell you that the Spurs were not poor defensively. And that brings me back around to our problem...
A big three isn't by definition a losing scenario. But it is when none of your big 3 is a standout defender and all of them need the ball to create their shots. I question whether a team built around 3 20ppg scorers has ever consistently won anything in the post-season, but more to the point, you can't build a core around three players who are terrible as a unit defensively. You're just setting yourself up for failure. And I think you're saying the same thing -- it could work with
the right 3 guys. I don't think these 3 guys are it. It scares me when people talk about trading guys like McLemore and Williams for role-players -- guys who can push this team to maybe a step above awful. Those kids are the future of the team. No they're not ready yet but you don't give up on guys that young and that talented who've barely started to adjust to the league.