If that were all true then we should be picking up exclusively 32 year old players, because everybody constantly improves and there is no way any younger players could compete against such a constant arc.
And if what you are arguing is true, we should only draft the youngest players possible becasue they have the hidden, mysterious humongous upside because they have not entered the "typical years" of major development. Just not true.
This desparation to get a superstar, including that other ludicrous thread on tanking again, is getting kinda hilarious.
I think we will have to agree to disagree and save some bandwidth now.
Except for this one....(and to display that I am an honorable debater)...
The other obvious point about 22 yr olds vs. 19yr olds would be this:
The 19yr olds represent ALL of the 19 yr olds out there (under the new rule). So you are drafting from amongst every 19 year old on the planet. That includes every level of 19 year old, from scrub to one day superstar.
The 22yr olds only represent the LEFTOVER 22 yr olds. They have already been strained of many of their elite talents as 18yr olds (under the old rule), 19yr olds, 20yr olds and 21 yr olds. Rudy Gay is already gone from that class. So is Al Horford etc. That alone, ignoring everything else, means your odds of nabbing a superstar with a 19yr old are higher than those with a 22yr old simply because all of the 19 yr old superstars are still there and avaiulable...if you can just figure out who they are.
This one hit me like a ton of bricks...no pun intended.
I just cannot refute this in any way, shape, or form.
Why did Jason Thompson, or any other player worthy of a lottery selection, for that matter, not declare before senior year?
1. Just wanted to finish that degree..education is paramount
2. Late bloomer...not ready in earlier college years
3. Having too much fun in college; money/big time not the biggest driver
4. Dedicated to school, coach and/or teammates, so that they do not have a major fall-off in performance from an early exit
5. Plain and simple...not good enough.
The answer for any player is not that important, but I DO agree that it means that the crop of seniors is indeed likely more restrictive and then possibly, if you take the next leap, potentially more devoid of future NBA stars. That does not mean Jason or any other senior cannot achieve stardom in the NBA, but to me, with early entrants, the senior class has gone through a bit of a strainer. This does not affect any one-on-one comparison between any two players but applies to the general population.
I do not concede any of my previous arguments about realistic drafting of a player and the one-on-one comparisons that must be made and where age fits in there in the real world of the GM. But I guess, without knowing the answers (#1 to #5) for most of the college seniors drafted in recent years, I am kind of painted into the corner about the general population issue. If I am a GM, I do not shy away from drafting a senior, but I do look closely at what he did over the course of his college career and perhaps ask some pointed questions.
I think I must have fallen for a sneaky lawyer trick...
Brick, you related to Denny Crane?