Why not wait till 2011:

[bajaden]

As Larry David has so eloquently written. The rules are about to change. The current Players agreement is going to expire at the end of next season, and the owners are pushing for a hard cap and shorter contracts along with smaller max amounts. Rookies salarys would also be adjusted down and with only two years guaranteed.

Now I'm sure there will eventually be compromises, and neither side will get everything it wants. And I suspect it will be painful with a lockout included. I know no one wants to see that happen, but if the owners are commited, and they appear to be, it seems unavoidable.

Its the outcome I'm concerned with. If the owners are successful, then freeagents that would have cost, lets say 10 mil a year prior to the new agreement, may only cost half that amount after the agreement. And instead of contracts having a max term life of 6 years, they would only be for 4 years, and with only the first 2 years guaranteed, with the next 3 years being a team option. Now I may be operating at the happy owners dream end of this scenario, but no matter what the outcome is, freeagents signed under the new agreement will probably cost less than under the old agreement.

So teams having significant cap space after the new agreement may be in a position for a fire sale. So why not wait?? This seasons freeagent list is downright pittiful once the top players are gone. So I've made a list of the unrestricted and restricted freeagents in 2011. Not everyone is on the list. Just the players that I thought most people would be interested in.

Unrestricted: In no particular order.

Jamal Crawford
Glen Davis
Kendrick Perkins
Rasheed Wallace
Jamerio Moon
Delonte West
Mo Williams
Caron Butler
Erick Dampier
Carmelo Anthony
Nene Hilario
J.R. Smith
Tayshaun Prince
Shane Battier
Troy Murphy
T.J. Ford
Zack Randolph
David West
Nenad Krstic
Samuel Dalembert
Leandro Barbosa
Carl Landry
Tim Duncan
Tony Parker
Andrie Kirilenko
Jason Richardson

Restricted: Again in no particular order.

Al Thorton
Greg Oden
Kevin Durant
Jeff Green
Marco Belinelli
Al Horford
Yi Jianlian
Mike Conley
Marc Gasol
Joakim Noah
Aaron Brooks
Julian Wright
Wilson Chandler
Aaron Affalo

As you can see, there's a much higher talent level available at the end of next season. And remember, that although the last list is of restricted free agents, the new rules may make it difficult for teams to resign their own freeagents.

For instance. If a hard cap is put in place. And lets say it set at 56 mil for the coming year. And lets say your Atlanta and you want to resign Al Horford. But your salaries add up to 54 mil without Horford on the books. And now the Kings make him an offer of 8 mil, how does Atlanta match that offer without going over the cap. Now I just made these numbers up, but you see my point. A team with cap space after the new agreement is in place, could be sitting in a great position to aquire some talent.

So once again, why not wait? By the way, from what I understand, all players drafted next in the 2011 draft will still fall under the old agreement.

 

[fnordius]

Unless one of the big three decided that playing in Sac sounded great, I'd hope & imagine that the Maloofs would be more focused on paying off their loan to the NBA, and generally keeping the franchise solvent. And I'm fine with that, particularly if we come out of the lottery in decent shape. Lots of teams have rebuilt through the draft. We can too, and it's the perfect strategy for hard times, so... we can always wait until we're like OKC is now, and hire "the final piece" then, when we know what that piece is. Hiring a max FA now would be kind of premature, not to mention ******* hard.

 

[bajaden]

Unless one of the big three decided that playing in Sac sounded great, I'd hope & imagine that the Maloofs would be more focused on paying off their loan to the NBA, and generally keeping the franchise solvent. And I'm fine with that, particularly if we come out of the lottery in decent shape. Lots of teams have rebuilt through the draft. We can too, and it's the perfect strategy for hard times, so... we can always wait until we're like OKC is now, and hire "the final piece" then, when we know what that piece is. Hiring a max FA now would be kind of premature, not to mention ******* hard.

So, I guess that means you would agree to wait until 2011? Since I agree with you, that unless you can sign a Wade, Lebron, etc., It would be better to sit on the money and see what plays out.

 

[Big Cuz 15]

So, I guess that means you would agree to wait until 2011? Since I agree with you, that unless you can sign a Wade, Lebron, etc., It would be better to sit on the money and see what plays out.

no reason to drop mega bucks on a player like joe johnson. heck, if we wait.. we might get another high lotto pick. another high lotto pick + capspace + other teams fire sale kings in the drivers seat.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Perkins is the only one I'm interested in in the unrestricted group.

 

[LPKingsFan]

If we don't draft a big this year, I'd be interested in Nene. And I understand Perkins could help this team, but I personally cannot stand the guy. Always with that annoying scowl, even when visiting kids at a hospital.

 

[LPKingsFan]

heck, if we wait.. we might get another high lotto pick.

No, this really should be it. We got our star, and hopefully get another one this summer, but at some point the wins need to start coming. Both for team morale, as well as the fans and getting momentum around a new arena. The point of rebuilding isn't to lose forever...

 

[Vlade4GM]

Yes, I sincerely hope this is our last year in the lottery. I love the excitement of the draft, but one more year with a high pick and I'm officially sick of the draft.

 

[rainmaker]

I have no problem waiting untill 2011. I would actually prefer it. That FA class is very deep, we will have a lot of money to spend, and players will be cheaper. We'll also have a better idea of how JT, Spencer, Omri, and Donte have progressed, and whether or not they fit into our future long term.

Realistically, I don't see us making the playoffs next year. Unless something unforseen happens, I'm expecting this core group, plus a high draft pick, to win somewhere in the mid 30's. I think we'll be very competitive, and will have a much better idea of what this team needs to make the jump to a playoff team. To many unkowns right now with all our youth, IMO.

With the new CBA looming, it is extremely important that we are damn sure what we spend our money on. One bad contract can really change the entire rebuilding scenario we are looking at. Cap space is only great if used wisely. Just one or two bad signings can completely screw it all up. Just look at what Detriot did last year.

 

[Prince_XY]

A team with cap space after the new agreement is in place, could be sitting in a great position to aquire some talent.

So once again, why not wait?

This is a good point and this is what I hope the Maloofs will do especially now that it looks like all planets and stars will align to make this Kings Team a power to reckon with in the next couple of seasons - that is if we get a top 4 pick.

I also agree with fnordius: " we can always wait until we're like OKC is now, and hire "the final piece" then, when we know what that piece is. Hiring a max FA now would be kind of premature, not to mention ******* hard."

I would rather wait and see what kind of a player we'll get from the coming draft. And I really hope Wall and Turner are gone before our turn to pick to make everything easier. I hope that somehow we'll get Cousins to spare the Kings from overpaying a non-defending BIG like Bosh, Stoudamire, or Boozer ( who wouldn't be able to match the likes of Gasol/Bynum or Dwight Howard anyways )

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

Ive been popping in various threads saying this. I dont want us to do anything this offseason.

Too much competition. None of the big names are going to come here when they have so many other options. Thats why I loved the Iggy&Dalembert for Noc/K9/whoever deal. We get a athletic freak defensive SF, and a very good D minded C who expires in 2011, when we SHOULD be ready to make the next step.

Im perfectly fine giving Hawes/JT/Landry/Rookie big another season to prove themselves. Same goes for the Greene/Casspi/Garcia/Evans/Udrih G/F crew. In my opinion, our team is fine as is going into next season. We add our two rookies, and show up with the same team we had last year. If the chance presents itself, make a move at the deadline with our capspace and steal a good player from a team looking to unload some salary.

Were almost there guys, I can feel it. We dont want to overpay some second tier veteran FA this offseason and ruin our chances of finding the player we really need. Because truth be told, we dont know what we need yet. These guys arent even half the players they could potentially be someday. Look at the improvements Greene made to his game this year ... I dont want to waste our money right now, because our 'needs' dont really matter yet. Our current needs might not be our needs once these players develope a little bit more .. save the money until we know what we need for sure, then go out and find it.

Last thing we want is another bad contract. We got lucky that Udrih turned it around and suddenly that deal doesnt look so bad, but say we overpay for a guy like Lee or Gay .. thats not worth it to me.

 

[SacKings7]

I'm kind of torn between this. While I think our chances of landing a significant player this offseason is pretty low, you never know. How many players do we have under contract for next season? Because we do have to spend SOME money in order to get up to the 14(?) player requirement. So I'm a little skeptical that if we can't get a star to sign with us, then Petrie will sign a redundant player or 2 that will give us less cap space next offseason

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Ive been popping in various threads saying this. I dont want us to do anything this offseason.

...

Last thing we want is another bad contract. We got lucky that Udrih turned it around and suddenly that deal doesnt look so bad, but say we overpay for a guy like Lee or Gay .. thats not worth it to me.

At the same time, we can't do absolutely nothing. Even given signing our second round pick, we'll only have 11 players. Bring Jon back, that's 12, and we'd still be under the league minimum roster by one player, and under the league minimum salary by about $4M (depends on how much we pay for the first rounder, #33, and Brock). Given that we'd be forced to spend another $4M, we can probably find a useful player out there.

I do agree that we should try to keep financial flexibility for the future, though. Tyreke and our first rounder will need some money eventually, maybe Greene and Casspi, and maybe we can land a free agent once the CBA is resettled. We need to spend for now, but no point in spending for the future until things start to sort out a bit.

 

[bajaden]

I'm kind of torn between this. While I think our chances of landing a significant player this offseason is pretty low, you never know. How many players do we have under contract for next season? Because we do have to spend SOME money in order to get up to the 14(?) player requirement. So I'm a little skeptical that if we can't get a star to sign with us, then Petrie will sign a redundant player or 2 that will give us less cap space next offseason

You can always fill out the roster with low salary players on a one year contract. Thereby saving cap space for the next offsesaon. And I believe the requirement is 13 players.

 

[JB_kings]

Unless you can hook an outstanding player, I would spend some smaller dollars on working on the defensive mindset of the club. For example the Magic have guys like Pietrus and Barnes that can come in and give you some solid defense. Having some lock down guys keeps you in every single game at home or on the road.

 

[Uncia03]

LBJ isn't a realistic acquisition and Wade wouldn't be that good of a fit for us.
In just talking draft and FA acquisition (not talking about making trades, or somehow getting extra draft picks), I hope to see one of the following play out:

1.) Acquire Turner/Wall
Make a big push for Bosh.
If we don't land Bosh, save our money and go hard after Perkins next year, while spending minimum amount of money to reach salary/player threshholds for this year.

2.) Acquire Cousins
Make a big push for Bosh.
If we don't land Bosh, see if Joe Johnson can be acquired for any reasonable price.
If we can't land either Bosh or Johnson, save our money, watch our kids develop, and use our capspace over the next few years to add high-quality pieces to bring the team into title contention.
If we get Cousins, I just don't see anyone that I think we 'have to have' in next year's free-agent class, so I'd rather keep the space, perhaps to facilitate a trade, or pick up a FA in a couple years.

3.) Acquire Favors
See if Joe Johnson could be acquired for a reasonable price (doubtful).
If we don't land Johnson, save our money.
Watch to see if Favors will actually have the bulk and length to guard players like Howard, Gasol, Bynum, Lopez. If he can't then go after Perkins hard next season.

I really don't want us spending huge amounts of money on David Lee, Boozer, Amare, ect.
And I really hope that if we can't land a major name, that we won't spend more than we need to.
Someone mentioned Detroit, and that's the perfect example. They basically killed their hopes of being a good basketball team for the next few years by completely wasting their money/cap space on Villanueva and Gordan. Horrible, horrible, horrible move.
So no matter what happens, we have to avoid doing the same thing, especially since we've finally got a potential superstar in Tyreke.

As far as what the Restricted FA landscape might be like next year, things are so up in the air in regards to what is actually going to take place with the new CBA, that for me it's impossible to speculate.

I will say this. If they do implement a hard cap, then GMs will have to be even more careful in managing their salary so that they'll have the opportunity to retain the players they think are essential to the team's success. It will become a lot more difficult to juggle.

Finally, next year we have to see improvements in the win-category. Being a sub 35 win team is almost unacceptable. This team needs to learn how to win, and hopefully the winning will begin in earnest next season after we've acquired some good pieces this offseason.

 

[rainmaker]

Looking at that list of FA's, what does everyone think about Carmelo? He will be the big name in that class, and his game would be great next to Tyreke. Of course it would be a long shot, and it's pretty far off in the future, but if we're offering a max salary to someone, Carmelo would be at the top of my list.

 

[bajaden]

I will say this. If they do implement a hard cap, then GMs will have to be even more careful in managing their salary so that they'll have the opportunity to retain the players they think are essential to the team's success. It will become a lot more difficult to juggle.

This is precisely the point of my post. Its very possible that even if we were able to lure a Bosh here and sign him to a max contract, that very contract might cause us to lose one or more valuable players on the team because of being maxed out cap wise under the new agreement.

We would essentially be playing with our future without know what the rules are. Thats a dangerous game. It could all be for naught and nothing changes much. But somehow I doubt it. The owners seem ready to hunker down for the long haul if necessary. Remember that both Hawes and Landry are up for new contracts at the end of next season, and Thompson and Greene the season after that.

What I think people need to understand, if they don't already, is that a hard cap means just that. No MLE. No exceptions of any kind, other than maybe to sign a player at the league mininum in order to make up a full roster. And that would probably come with a stiff penalty.

 

[LPKingsFan]

LBJ isn't a realistic acquisition and Wade wouldn't be that good of a fit for us.
In just talking draft and FA acquisition (not talking about making trades, or somehow getting extra draft picks), I hope to see one of the following play out:

1.) Acquire Turner/Wall
Make a big push for Bosh.
If we don't land Bosh, save our money and go hard after Perkins next year, while spending minimum amount of money to reach salary/player threshholds for this year.

2.) Acquire Cousins
Make a big push for Bosh.
If we don't land Bosh, see if Joe Johnson can be acquired for any reasonable price.
If we can't land either Bosh or Johnson, save our money, watch our kids develop, and use our capspace over the next few years to add high-quality pieces to bring the team into title contention.
If we get Cousins, I just don't see anyone that I think we 'have to have' in next year's free-agent class, so I'd rather keep the space, perhaps to facilitate a trade, or pick up a FA in a couple years.

3.) Acquire Favors
See if Joe Johnson could be acquired for a reasonable price (doubtful).
If we don't land Johnson, save our money.
Watch to see if Favors will actually have the bulk and length to guard players like Howard, Gasol, Bynum, Lopez. If he can't then go after Perkins hard next season.

I really don't want us spending huge amounts of money on David Lee, Boozer, Amare, ect.
And I really hope that if we can't land a major name, that we won't spend more than we need to.
Someone mentioned Detroit, and that's the perfect example. They basically killed their hopes of being a good basketball team for the next few years by completely wasting their money/cap space on Villanueva and Gordan. Horrible, horrible, horrible move.
So no matter what happens, we have to avoid doing the same thing, especially since we've finally got a potential superstar in Tyreke.

As far as what the Restricted FA landscape might be like next year, things are so up in the air in regards to what is actually going to take place with the new CBA, that for me it's impossible to speculate.

I will say this. If they do implement a hard cap, then GMs will have to be even more careful in managing their salary so that they'll have the opportunity to retain the players they think are essential to the team's success. It will become a lot more difficult to juggle.

Finally, next year we have to see improvements in the win-category. Being a sub 35 win team is almost unacceptable. This team needs to learn how to win, and hopefully the winning will begin in earnest next season after we've acquired some good pieces this offseason.

Pretty good, although I think there's a simpler breakdown.

Plan A, if we have a top 2 pick: Draft Wall or Turner, look to address the big man deficiency through a trade (such as taking on Dalembert's expiring with our cap space).

Plan B, if we have a 2-4 pick: Draft Cousins or Favors. Maybe spend $4-5 million (just to reach min salary requirements) on a ball handling, good shooting defensive guard on a short contract.

Plan C, if we draft 5-6: we better not draft 5-6.

In each of these, I think you approach free agency in the same way. Show up at Bosh's door at midnight, July 1, offer him the max along with everyone else. He probably won't take it, but at least you tried. (Maybe everyone else is at LeBron's door so you only have to arm wrestle Brian Colangelo to see who rings the doorbell first). I probably wouldn't offer the max to Joe Johnson, but I would think hard about Amare.

In any case, I don't see us making a splash in free agency (please let others overpay for David Lee and Rudy Gay. I'm talking to you, Nets and Clippers) Even if we draft Cousins or Favors, it might be worth going after a guy like Dalembert. Or we could just rent our cap space (a la OKC the last few years) by taking on an expiring and getting a pick or other asset from a team looking to get under the lux tax line.

I agree that winning must be the goal next year. Although it should happen organically (through draft, player development, not shortsighted David Lee max deal) a significant improvement should be expected. This time next year we should be talking about what final free agent we need to make our playoff push, not what rookie we plan to draft in the top 5.

 

[bajaden]

The Kings won 25 games last season. But they lost 30 games by 8 points or less. And, they were in almost all of those games with 2 minutes to play. If they added no one to the team and just brought back the same team. But Tyreke showed up with a jumpshot. Greene and Thompson and Casspi all improved over the summer. Hawes shows up in the best shape of his young career and a refined post game.

If all that happened, and its not anything thats far fetched, except maybe the Hawes part, and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. How many of those thirty games would the team win? They would have the experience of having played together for one season. They would start off the season with Landry. I think there's no doubt that they would be a better team. Now if you add in another top draft pick, and lets say its one of the top four. How many more games do we win? I would think 10 mininum. Maybe half. If so that would put us at 40 wins. Seems high doesn't it. But its not out of reach if all things fall into place. Probably not enough to make the playoffs, but a hell of an improvement.

Teams get better for a lot of reasons. But one of the key reasons is the experience of playing together, and by the individual players improving from one year to the next. It doesn't hurt to add another superstar, but as rare as they are, its not something to plan on either. If the Kings can get lucky a second time in the draft and pick up another star, or at worse, the ying to Tyreke's yang, then I think were off and running. All the ingredients are in the pot. It just needs to simmer for a while so they can all get aquainted with one another.

 

[kennadog]

The Kings won 25 games last season. But they lost 30 games by 8 points or less. And, they were in almost all of those games with 2 minutes to play. If they added no one to the team and just brought back the same team. But Tyreke showed up with a jumpshot. Greene and Thompson and Casspi all improved over the summer. Hawes shows up in the best shape of his young career and a refined post game.

If all that happened, and its not anything thats far fetched, except maybe the Hawes part, and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. How many of those thirty games would the team win? They would have the experience of having played together for one season. They would start off the season with Landry. I think there's no doubt that they would be a better team. Now if you add in another top draft pick, and lets say its one of the top four. How many more games do we win? I would think 10 mininum. Maybe half. If so that would put us at 40 wins. Seems high doesn't it. But its not out of reach if all things fall into place. Probably not enough to make the playoffs, but a hell of an improvement.

Teams get better for a lot of reasons. But one of the key reasons is the experience of playing together, and by the individual players improving from one year to the next. It doesn't hurt to add another superstar, but as rare as they are, its not something to plan on either. If the Kings can get lucky a second time in the draft and pick up another star, or at worse, the ying to Tyreke's yang, then I think were off and running. All the ingredients are in the pot. It just needs to simmer for a while so they can all get aquainted with one another.

Hopefully, coaching stability helps the young guys, too.

 

[SacKings7]

The Kings won 25 games last season. But they lost 30 games by 8 points or less. And, they were in almost all of those games with 2 minutes to play. If they added no one to the team and just brought back the same team. But Tyreke showed up with a jumpshot. Greene and Thompson and Casspi all improved over the summer. Hawes shows up in the best shape of his young career and a refined post game.

If all that happened, and its not anything thats far fetched, except maybe the Hawes part, and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. How many of those thirty games would the team win? They would have the experience of having played together for one season. They would start off the season with Landry. I think there's no doubt that they would be a better team. Now if you add in another top draft pick, and lets say its one of the top four. How many more games do we win? I would think 10 mininum. Maybe half. If so that would put us at 40 wins. Seems high doesn't it. But its not out of reach if all things fall into place. Probably not enough to make the playoffs, but a hell of an improvement.

Teams get better for a lot of reasons. But one of the key reasons is the experience of playing together, and by the individual players improving from one year to the next. It doesn't hurt to add another superstar, but as rare as they are, its not something to plan on either. If the Kings can get lucky a second time in the draft and pick up another star, or at worse, the ying to Tyreke's yang, then I think were off and running. All the ingredients are in the pot. It just needs to simmer for a while so they can all get aquainted with one another.

That's all fine and dandy, and I agree with you for the most part, but keep in mind we're not the only team that's gonna be improving

 

[bajaden]

That's all fine and dandy, and I agree with you for the most part, but keep in mind we're not the only team that's gonna be improving

Thats very true. But don't forget that some of the top teams are going to be another year older as well. How much longer can Duncan and company maintain the same level of play. How about Dallas with Nowitski and Kidd. What happens to the Suns if Amare leaves and suddenly Nash starts to show his age. How good will Houston be if Yao doesn't completely recover. My point is that a changing of the guard is starting, and rightly so. Its the cycle of things.

Not saying its going to be a cake walk, but I see our record improving just by the nature of individual player improvements and familiarity. Games that we let slip away last year in the final seconds should be fewer this coming season. We'll see..

 

[LPKingsFan]

Hey now, Memphis improved from 24 wins in 2009 to 40 this year, with their main addition, Thabeet, not having much of an impact. So it's definitely not far fetched. I'm hoping to make a similar run next year, and then make an OKC-esque push into the playoffs in 2012.

 

[Superman]

Outside of the really big names that just aren't coming to Sacramento, I'm not really crazy about anyone in free agency. Certainly not the B-level guys who are going to get cap-strangling contracts (Joe Johnson, that means you). I would rather keep the cap space and the real money, because the Maloofs check-writing is absolutely tied to their financial situation more than it is to the salary cap. So unless we're going to get LeBron or Bosh or D-Wade, or even Stoudemire, there's no sense in signing a $60 million player who isn't going to make the team any better, just for the sake of signing him. Might as well hold on to the cap space and cash and wait for the new CBA, when we might have a better chance at prying away future free agents than we do under the current system.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Unless we get one of the 2 or 3 franchise guys I'm all for this. I am not sure how the salary cap will work out, I don't think the "owner's dream" scenario is likely, but you never know. After the NHL salary rules were adjusted after the lost season you had players like Chris Pronger shipped to Edmonton because the Blues couldn't carry his contract. He lead them to the Finals. So potentially its not just free agents but teams forced to make lopsided trades to work with a more restrictive cap.

 

[Nighthawk1]

Hey now, Memphis improved from 24 wins in 2009 to 40 this year, with their main addition, Thabeet, not having much of an impact. So it's definitely not far fetched. I'm hoping to make a similar run next year, and then make an OKC-esque push into the playoffs in 2012.

Thabeet wasn't their main addition, Zach Randolph was.

Our team is capable of a 40 win season if everyone developes (which I'm sure most will).

Let's be honest though, while I do AGREE that we should wait until the 2011 offseason... I don't think the Maloofs will. If they can get some solid Free Agents and hopefully turn a potential 40 win season into a 50 win season I think they will do it. With the new arena in the works they will want to add as much fire back to the org as soon as possible. We just have to hope they will control the pocket book...

 

[rainmaker]

Thabeet wasn't their main addition, Zach Randolph was.

Our team is capable of a 40 win season if everyone developes (which I'm sure most will).

Let's be honest though, while I do AGREE that we should wait until the 2011 offseason... I don't think the Maloofs will. If they can get some solid Free Agents and hopefully turn a potential 40 win season into a 50 win season I think they will do it. With the new arena in the works they will want to add as much fire back to the org as soon as possible. We just have to hope they will control the pocket book...

Yeah, I think you're right. I thought Petrie and the Maloofs would want to wait until 2011 to really go after some big name, or more expensive FA's. That was until I heard Joe on the Scott V Pelt show today, and it sounds like he wants to spend, and spend now. Should be interesting.

I still think a trade where we absorb a larger contract is more likely than outright signing a FA. More options.

 

[bajaden]

Yeah, I think you're right. I thought Petrie and the Maloofs would want to wait until 2011 to really go after some big name, or more expensive FA's. That was until I heard Joe on the Scott V Pelt show today, and it sounds like he wants to spend, and spend now. Should be interesting.

I still think a trade where we absorb a larger contract is more likely than outright signing a FA. More options.

I agree with your last statement. After you get past the max players, the pickings get pretty thin. So a sign and trade, or just absorbing more salary than you trade away is most likely.