Who do we draft?

[hrdboild]

The thing with Yi Jianlian is that, even though he plays against weak competition in the CBA and there's questions about his real age -- his status with the Chinese basketball team probably works to his advantage. He's expected to lead the Chinese basketball team alongside Yao and that gives him extra motivation that most players don't have. He'll also bring a huge fan base and marketing value to whichever team drafts him. My only real concern with him for the Kings is I don't know how well he'll ever be able to defend his position. He's got the size and athleticism to be a factor as a weakside shotblocker but he's far too weak physically to defend in the post and that's a problem. I could easily see him on the Kings, and he's got the upside to justify a lottery pick, but I want there to be a change in philosophy here and drafting a player who can't currently defend his position and may never be able to isn't really consistent with a new emphasis on defense over offense.

(Given the choice, I would rather have Hibbert -- but then I would be fairly shocked if Geoff Petrie drafted Hibbert over Jianlian. Old habits die hard and everything. This is the same reason why I think swapping Bibby for Conley Jr. could be a good organizational move. Conley's defense is probably his best attribute right now.)

 

[Venom]

Just out of curiousity, all you Noah fans saw the championship game, right? One of the few NBA ready big men he faced this year, and he got DOMINATED. This is with Horford and Richard to protect him. What's he going to do against NBA competition night in and night out? And this is a guy that everybody admits cannot score except off garbage. I hear people call him a rich man's Verajao and then say they would take him top 5. Those two statements are completely incongruous.

When I look at Noah I see a kid who loves the spectacle, not the game. He has not improved any facet of his game in two years with Billy Donovan as his coach. And this leadership jive. . .look, alot of you need to join the military or some other profession where you can see true leadership in action, cause it doesn't look anything like Noah or KG. I suppose great leadership is interrupting your teammate's interview with jack*** dance moves, CauSE ThAt WaS SOOOOOooooo Kewl!!

 

[tjobrien]

Just out of curiousity, all you Noah fans saw the championship game, right? One of the few NBA ready big men he faced this year, and he got DOMINATED. This is with Horford and Richard to protect him. What's he going to do against NBA competition night in and night out? And this is a guy that everybody admits cannot score except off garbage. I hear people call him a rich man's Verajao and then say they would take him top 5. Those two statements are completely incongruous.

When I look at Noah I see a kid who loves the spectacle, not the game. He has not improved any facet of his game in two years with Billy Donovan as his coach. And this leadership jive. . .look, alot of you need to join the military or some other profession where you can see true leadership in action, cause it doesn't look anything like Noah or KG. I suppose great leadership is interrupting your teammate's interview with jack*** dance moves, CauSE ThAt WaS SOOOOOooooo Kewl!!

"I hear people call him a rich man's Verajao and then say they would take him top 5. Those two statements are completely incongruous."


THANK YOU!!!!!! That bugs the crap out of me, too. A rich man's Varejao is worth a pick around 15-20. We need more than that.

 

[hrdboild]

Noah would be a great pick for someone in the late teens -- not top 10. That said, I think the Varejao comparison is inaccurate. Partly because Varejao is actually better than most people give him credit for. He's probably the third best player on that team after LJ and Hughes. And partly because Noah is a much better defensive player already than Varejao probably will ever be. And, as I keep saying, defense matters. When it's all said and done, I wouldn't be surprised if Noah ends up as one of the best 10 players from this draft. In fact, I'm almost certain he will be. He's a safe pick cause you know what you're getting, but most lottery teams are looking for a player with franchise turning potential and that's probably not Noah.

 

[Kingzrool]

I really do not want Noah. He will not be an impact in the NBA.

Yi is the man for the job, kid is like a magnet to the rim.

 

[Vlade4GM]

The thing with Yi Jianlian is that, even though he plays against weak competition in the CBA and there's questions about his real age -- his status with the Chinese basketball team probably works to his advantage. He's expected to lead the Chinese basketball team alongside Yao and that gives him extra motivation that most players don't have. He'll also bring a huge fan base and marketing value to whichever team drafts him. My only real concern with him for the Kings is I don't know how well he'll ever be able to defend his position. He's got the size and athleticism to be a factor as a weakside shotblocker but he's far too weak physically to defend in the post and that's a problem. I could easily see him on the Kings, and he's got the upside to justify a lottery pick, but I want there to be a change in philosophy here and drafting a player who can't currently defend his position and may never be able to isn't really consistent with a new emphasis on defense over offense.

(Given the choice, I would rather have Hibbert -- but then I would be fairly shocked if Geoff Petrie drafted Hibbert over Jianlian. Old habits die hard and everything. This is the same reason why I think swapping Bibby for Conley Jr. could be a good organizational move. Conley's defense is probably his best attribute right now.)

Jianlian has the tools to be a very good defender. He's suprisingly quick laterally, he has quick hands, he's good at reading the passing lanes, he's got good hops, height, and a pretty good wingspan (it didn't look as long as I originally thought but it still looks like above average length, just not freakishly long). What's preventing him from being a good man defender is like you said the lack of strength to hold position. He'll never be really bulky but he could probably add 10-15 lbs, will he? Who knows. As far as his shot blocking, he has all the tools for it but he didn't appear to me as someone who will dominate the paint because he just simply didn't look that quick to react on the block, but Gasol was never really touted as a potentially dominant shot blocker either but look at him now and YJL certainly has better all around defensive tools than Gasol. JYL has all the physical tools to be like a KG, he truly does, but the problem is that he'll more than likely never even come close to the aggressiveness or intensity of a KG and that's what will probably set him apart from elite status. He needs to improve his upper body strength, he needs to expand on his low post moves, and he needs to finish with contact better. He just needs to be more aggressive gaining position whether if it's rebounding or just defending his man.

Offensively he does pattern himself a lot like KG, he's got the mid range shot out to 20 ft that's pretty consistent, he's got pretty good handles, he's got the turn around fadeway and he can throw it down very well in transition (can get up and down the court extremely well). He's a good passer, he can pass out of double teams well and can spot the cutter, he's definitely not KG good but it's certainly not a weakness for him. He does have a bit of a problem protecting the ball, doesn't always hold it over his head when he should or dribbles the ball when he shouldn't and he gets pick pocketed. He basically has zero back to the basket moves other than that turn around J. His biggest obstacle will definitely be his ability to drive and finish in traffic.

A reasonable upside outlook I think is probably around 18-9-3-1.5bpg-1spg, which is near all-star numbers. A lot depends on him gaining strength and gaining confidence. It's definitely a high risk high reward situation selecting him, but it's not a bad risk to take if you can afford to take it. He can really end being anything from a KG to a Channing Frye....

 

[BMiller52]

I think in his prime Jianlian will be an 18/7/3/1/1 guy. I don't see how he'll get rebounds against NBA players. I don't see how he's going to post up NBA players. He's not strong enough to back anyone down and in those mixes he's just scoring on weak guys or slow guys. In the NBA he'll have to try to score on athletic people+taller guys. Sure he can score on some random guy in the Chinese league but how's he gonna score on NBA players? How is he going to get rebounds with the athletic, strong, and tall NBA players? I don't see how he'll do it... IMO he's going to be a better Channing Frye.

 

[Bricklayer]

I think in his prime Jianlian will be an 18/7/3/1/1 guy. I don't see how he'll get rebounds against NBA players. I don't see how he's going to post up NBA players. He's not strong enough to back anyone down and in those mixes he's just scoring on weak guys or slow guys. In the NBA he'll have to try to score on athletic people+taller guys. Sure he can score on some random guy in the Chinese league but how's he gonna score on NBA players? How is he going to get rebounds with the athletic, strong, and tall NBA players? I don't see how he'll do it... IMO he's going to be a better Channing Frye.

He'll score the same way KG scores: take bigs outside, hit a jumper, or if they crowd him, go right around them (he is very quick for a man his size). Then if he gets a little guy on him, he'll take him into the post for that turnaround. Along the way he'll pick up 2-3 fastbreak hoops a game just simply beating anybody big enough to get in his way down the floor.

As for the rebounding: he's 7'0" tall and quick. hard to tell how that will translate, but we are watching right now a 6'9" guy who is skinny and quick (Justin) show that that can be enough if you have desire. Does Jianlin? Hard to tell -- you rarely see mixes of rebounds. He grabbed a lot of boards in the China league (something like 11-12 per game), but its hard to tell the relevance.

 

[BMiller52]

I just don't like the idea of taking a guy who has never played against good opponents. Not to mention the fact that none of us have ever seen him play a real game, and anyone can look good in those mixes you see on youtube. Just not convinced he's that good.

 

[Bricklayer]

I just don't like the idea of taking a guy who has never played against good opponents. Not to mention the fact that none of us have ever seen him play a real game, and anyone can look good in those mixes you see on youtube. Just not convinced he's that good.

You mean guys like Peja or Dirk?

Or high school guys like LeBron or KG?

Or just the watrered down college guys?

There is NOBODY out there in the draft who has played against guys at the level of the NBA. They are all reaches on that standard. If you like out there somewhere is a mix of Jianlin crossing over Gasol in an international game and then flying past him for the big dunk. Came down and gave him a little "take that" chest bump too.

No guarantees with any of these guys. This one is big, fast, and has excellent skills. There is a reason for the intrigue.

 

[fnordius]

I just don't like the idea of taking a guy who has never played against good opponents. Not to mention the fact that none of us have ever seen him play a real game, and anyone can look good in those mixes you see on youtube. Just not convinced he's that good.

He played well against Gasol and others last summer. I do see your point, and I partly agree with it, but who is playing well for us lately?

Kevin Martin: Western Carolina
Ronnie Price - Utah Valley State
Justin Williams - Wyoming

I agree that he's pretty untested for being a lottery pick, but when you blow your chances like we did, there are going to be risks and/or compromises. I'm not sure that I like any of the other risks or compromises a whole ton better. You know? They're all iffy in one way or another.

 

[BMiller52]

Well the thing is with a Julian Wright or Hawes is you know they atleast going to be a good player who you can compliment, use, or trade. Jianlian is so unproven that he might turn out to be a bust and then you aren't going to get much for him in a trade. Not to mention I saw somewhere on RGM that Seattle really likes him. But he is all hype right now.

 

[nbrans]

Well the thing is with a Julian Wright or Hawes is you know they atleast going to be a good player who you can compliment, use, or trade. Jianlian is so unproven that he might turn out to be a bust and then you aren't going to get much for him in a trade. Not to mention I saw somewhere on RGM that Seattle really likes him. But he is all hype right now.

How do you know? These guys didn't even dominate college -- they showed some flashes, sure, but it wasn't like there was a big Durant-esque gap between them and the competition.

I've said it once, I've said it again, I think Wright and Hawes have much more bust potential than Jianlian. Hawes because he lacks top shelf athleticism, Wright because it's going to be a stretch for him to develop the type of skills he'd need to justify picking him that high.

 

[BMiller52]

I already told you we're just going to have to agree to disagree man. I don't think Jianlian will ever come close to the player I think Wright will end up being.

 

[Vlade4GM]

You mean guys like Peja or Dirk?

Or high school guys like LeBron or KG?

Or just the watrered down college guys?

There is NOBODY out there in the draft who has played against guys at the level of the NBA. They are all reaches on that standard. If you like out there somewhere is a mix of Jianlin crossing over Gasol in an international game and then flying past him for the big dunk. Came down and gave him a little "take that" chest bump too.

No guarantees with any of these guys. This one is big, fast, and has excellent skills. There is a reason for the intrigue.

Various clips and mix tapes don't really prove a whole lot.

 

[Vlade4GM]

YJL is definitely high risk high reward, but I don't think it's so much where I'd pass him up. It's a reasonable risk to take as long as that's you're looking for, I'd pick him over Jwright and Hawes.

 

[nbrans]

Various clips and mix tapes don't really prove a whole lot.

A lot of people on the board have watched Jianlian play though, either in the Worlds or when they showed the CBA on NBA TV. He had a pretty good game against America when I watched -- I didn't even have to see his number to tell, "Oh yeah, that's the guy" because he was just way more athletic than anyone else on his team. He finished with 14 and 9 in 30 minutes against the USA All-Stars.

 

[Vlade4GM]

He'll score the same way KG scores: take bigs outside, hit a jumper, or if they crowd him, go right around them (he is very quick for a man his size). Then if he gets a little guy on him, he'll take him into the post for that turnaround. Along the way he'll pick up 2-3 fastbreak hoops a game just simply beating anybody big enough to get in his way down the floor.

As for the rebounding: he's 7'0" tall and quick. hard to tell how that will translate, but we are watching right now a 6'9" guy who is skinny and quick (Justin) show that that can be enough if you have desire. Does Jianlin? Hard to tell -- you rarely see mixes of rebounds. He grabbed a lot of boards in the China league (something like 11-12 per game), but its hard to tell the relevance.

Yup, that's definitely what he'll have to do, but the question is whether he'll be able to finish in traffic. I never saw that from him in the CBA finals. So that's something he'll have to overcome.

Well in the CBA finals he was grabbing his fair share of defensive rebounds, but I wouldn't really say he was aggressive on key rebound situations. He did on a few occassions get some key tips on the offensive side. Still that doesn't really mean much considering the competition, but he definitely didn't dominate the boards. I don't think he'll ever be much better than 9 per game.

 

[Vlade4GM]

A lot of people on the board have watched Jianlian play though, either in the Worlds or when they showed the CBA on NBA TV. He had a pretty good game against America when I watched -- I didn't even have to see his number to tell, "Oh yeah, that's the guy" because he was just way more athletic than anyone else on his team. He finished with 14 and 9 in 30 minutes against the USA All-Stars.

He's so fit for an up tempo offense, suns would do well picking him but I don't think they could pass up on Horford either. They could definitely use his defense and rebounding, think of an Amare/Horford frontcourt...sigh

 

[Venom]

YJL and Hibbert are the two bigs that could be there for us who I would be satisfied in getting. I think that Brewer will be a better player than the both of them, long term. But if Petrie pulls the trigger on YJL or Hibbert, I can't complain. The days of Chad Ford blowing up little known internationals completely out of proportion to their talents are long gone. These internationals are scouted every bit as rigorously as state-side players, so YJL is in the conversation for a reason. Our GM is one of the two best in the business, and if he thinks the man is worth the #9 pick then I will be darn excited about it.

 

[Löwenherz]

^^ I'm with ya. I really want a quality big out of this draft, and while I'd prefer to get Hibbert late if we can swing it -- if Yi is available and Petrie thinks he can man the middle, I won't walk away from the draft feeling robbed.

 

[Kingster]

Just out of curiousity, all you Noah fans saw the championship game, right? One of the few NBA ready big men he faced this year, and he got DOMINATED. This is with Horford and Richard to protect him. What's he going to do against NBA competition night in and night out? And this is a guy that everybody admits cannot score except off garbage. I hear people call him a rich man's Verajao and then say they would take him top 5. Those two statements are completely incongruous.

When I look at Noah I see a kid who loves the spectacle, not the game. He has not improved any facet of his game in two years with Billy Donovan as his coach. And this leadership jive. . .look, alot of you need to join the military or some other profession where you can see true leadership in action, cause it doesn't look anything like Noah or KG. I suppose great leadership is interrupting your teammate's interview with jack*** dance moves, CauSE ThAt WaS SOOOOOooooo Kewl!!

I'm with you. He's a guy who could drop a loooong way in the draft.

 

[Kingster]

I'll keep banging this drum until it is self-evident to everybody five years from now, but Brewer is the third best prospect in this draft. Therefore, if he "drops" to #9 or #10 he is the guy I want. In our current situation, I go strict BPA. This is basketball, you win with your best five on the court. If Afflalo was in this draft, and the BPA, I would take him. Good luck covering two dead eye shooters like him and Martin. However, the same type of shooter is in this draft, stands 6'9", is a great athlete, a true lock-down defender, and can pass and handle. His name is Corey Brewer.

Let's be serious, Artest and Bibby are leaving soon. We need talent, not 7' cheerleaders.

Venom, you're preaching to the choir about Brewer! But if he dropped to the where the Kings picked I think I'd have a heart attack and so I couldn't enjoy the season. He's just tooo good to last to the 8-10 slot. But as a Bruin who has watched Afflalo a lot, I wouldn't take him, except as a lower first round pick. He doesn't have the athleticism of a Brewer, although he has a ton of heart.