To Tank or not to Tank...what would you want?

[mdme]

Looking at things, this is another loss season. Do you think we should just try to suck as much as we can and hope we get "lucky" on a high enough draft pick. I mean, there are several teams "ahead" of us in the Greg oden sweepstakes, I guess it's important that we start as early as possible.

So you on the bandwagon yet?

 

[Fear the Putin]

we are not gonna get the first pick nor the top5 pick either

if we tank this season...ARCO will be empty because Kings fans come to see the players play with all of what they got

and plus there will be other teams that will be worse than us, no matter how bad we are

 

[John Galt]

Do you think we should just try to suck as much as we can?

You phrase that as if it would take some conscious change in direction to do just that? Seems to me we're doing just fine at it.

 

[migibizzle]

Well its a lottery so no pick is guaranteed if we land between 1-4 worse records we have a solid chance at a top 2 pick which is were i beleive the elite in this class will land. That being Wright and Oden.

 

[BawLa]

I think we are close enough to the bottom to make it official. We would be competing with Memphis and Philly to get that worst record and to do so we would need to start developing Williams, Garcia, Price, and Douby while somehow finding a way to dump some bigger contracts. Miller and Bibby should be the first to go since they play terrible defense. Send 'em to teams that want to make a playoff run or buffer their bench. It is impossible to move KT so I think SAR is the odd man out. But keeping Reef is okay by me as long as we didn't get a PF or C back from the Bibby/Miller trades. Which really makes no sense but you never know. Maybe you can land a late first round pick and some expiring contracts. Build through the draft and with some of the young talent we already have. Then you can target the types of players you need in Free Agency and should have enough money to grab 2-3 veterans. You will have to over-pay but you get what you need. Then sit back and watch the rise back over the next two years.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Well its a lottery so no pick is guaranteed if we land between 1-4 worse records we have a solid chance at a top 2 pick which is were i beleive the elite in this class will land. That being Wright and Oden.

That's not entirely true...

I dispute this poll on the grounds that the second option is mathematically impossible, if our record is bad enough. The Draft Lottery gives the team with the fourteenth-worst record the opportunity to end up with the number-one pick; it does not give the team with the fourteenth-worst record the opportunity to end up with the number-five pick, nor does it give the team with the fifth-worst record the chance to choose tenth.

The way the draft works is that all the teams that didn't make the playoffs get a a number of ping pong balls that are inversely proportional to where they finish in the standings. When the lottery is held, the team that wins gets the number-one pick, and all the rest of the teams in the lottery (and this seems to be the part where everyone gets confused) picks in reverse-order of their record. This means that, if we finish with the ninth-worst record (which is what we have right now), the worst pick we can possibly end up with is tenth, and that's only IF a team with a better record than us wins the lottery.

EDIT - In other words, with respect to migibizzle's post, if we finish with the fourth-worst record, we are guaranteed to get either the #4 pick or the #5 pick. We can't do any worse, and the only way we can do better is if we win the lottery outright. Right now, there are only four losses between us and the #4 pick in the draft, so you're damned skippy we can get a top-5 pick.

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

Lets do it! I dont think we're good enough to swim back to the 8th spot, anyways...and why do that...this is DEFINETELY a re-building year...and I think it will set in with management. Blow it up this summer and work your magic Geoff! You have to make up for a few bad moves the past few years!

 

[thatguy]

The way the draft works is that all the teams that didn't make the playoffs get a a number of ping pong balls that are inversely proportional to where they finish in the standings. When the lottery is held, the team that wins gets the number-one pick, and all the rest of the teams in the lottery (and this seems to be the part where everyone gets confused) picks in reverse-order of their record.

The first three picks are determined by the ping-pong balls. Then reverse order happens. The worst team in the league can end up with the fourth pick. I'm pretty sure it has happened before.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

The worst team in the league can end up with the fourth pick. I'm pretty sure it has happened before.

Only when the team with the worst record is an expansion team.

 

[thatguy]

Only when the team with the worst record is an expansion team.

Actually, it happened last year. The Blazers weren't an expansion team.

 

[uolj]

thatguy is right, you can get knocked back as many as 3 spots (amongst lottery teams). If you have the fourth worst record, you can pick anywhere from 1-7. Pick 7 would happen if the three teams that win the ping-pong ball drawings all have better records.

 

[Widowmaker2k]

Found this, don't know if it helps much though: http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/history/draft/lottery.htm

 

[tyrant]

it does give me a little joy to know that as bad as we suck we're still not the worst team in the league. get the right pieces and we're back in the running. with that said i think we should tank every single game. and get oden

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

it does give me a little joy to know that as bad as we suck we're still not the worst team in the league. get the right pieces and we're back in the running. with that said i think we should tank every single game. and get oden

No gaurantee about Oden, but there are a handful of very good bigs in this years draft...dont forget about Noah, Horford and Gray.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Actually, it happened last year. The Blazers weren't an expansion team.

I stand corrected.

That said, let's just suppose, for the sake of argument, that the twelfth-worst, thirteenth-worst and fourteenth-worst teams ALL end up with a top-three pick... that means that the worst, second-worst and third-worst teams get pushed back to fourth, fifth and sixth picks respsectively. Which means that the worst pick that the fifth-worst team could end up with is still eighth.

And my original grievance with the poll is still valid; it is not possible to get the tenth pick with the worst record.

 

[Kev.in]

This draft is too talented not to tank. This team started out ok, but they've been HORRIBLE lately. We're not finishing with the 12th, 13th or 14th worst record in the league, it'd take a huge run just to get up to that level and compete for a playoff spot in April. This team is looking like a 30 win team (give or take a few W's). In the '98 draft the Kings had the 7th worst record and got the 7th pick coming off a 27 win season. Anything in the top 10 is going to give the chance at a very nice player.

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

This draft is too talented not to tank. This team started out ok, but they've been HORRIBLE lately. We're not finishing with the 12th, 13th or 14th worst record in the league, it'd take a huge run just to get up to that level and compete for a playoff spot in April. This team is looking like a 30 win team (give or take a few W's). In the '98 draft the Kings had the 7th worst record and got the 7th pick coming off a 27 win season. Anything in the top 10 is going to give the chance at a very nice player.

Yup...I couldnt agree more...I think we'll probably end up with about 34 wins, which is obviously pretty bad, so we should get a nice player in the draft.

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

I stand corrected.

That said, let's just suppose, for the sake of argument, that the twelfth-worst, thirteenth-worst and fourteenth-worst teams ALL end up with a top-three pick... that means that the worst, second-worst and third-worst teams get pushed back to fourth, fifth and sixth picks respsectively. Which means that the worst pick that the fifth-worst team could end up with is still eighth.

And my original grievance with the poll is still valid; it is not possible to get the tenth pick with the worst record.

I guess, but hypothetically speaking, we should end up with around the 7th or 8th worst record, if things continue to follow suit, which SHOULD give us around the 7th pick...that's fine with me, knowing what we already know about all the money we should have to spend once expiring contracts come off the books...there are only a couple of guys we should keep from this team; Artest, Martin and maybe Douby, Salmons. It's open season once again in Sacramento! And hey, at least if we actually have lighting strike twice and we DO get the 1st pick, at least we wont have Bill Russell to worry about drafting the likes of Pervis freaking Ellison. Oden is about as clear cut as they come...hopefully he comes out. I wish we could fast forward to June already!

 

[Bricklayer]

Yup...I couldnt agree more...I think we'll probably end up with about 34 wins, which is obviously pretty bad, so we should get a nice player in the draft.

That is frankly too many wins. Winning 34 in our situation is a mini-disaster when you could win 24. In this draft especially. It could very well come true, but just like winning, losing is the same way: if you are going to lose you want to LOSE. There are major rewards at the end of the rainbow for big time losers. Few if any for middling nobodies.

 

[uopmatt]

There are major rewards at the end of the rainbow for big time losers. Few if any for middling nobodies.

I agree. I am salivating of the chance (although it is probably very slim) of getting a guy like Oden. I have watched a few Ohio State games this year, and this kid is a stud. He can score is the post, block shots, rebound well, and defend well. I know they a little different, but look how Orlando went out and got Howard. It took a few years to get the right pieces around him, but aren't they a decent team now. What's the point of finishing is the low 30's in wins, maybe being a 8 seed and then getting a pick around 15-17. We need to lose now.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I don't believe in tanking for the sake of tanking. I went through that with the other team I like and karma seemed to come back and bite us on the arse for that one. But I'm totally fine with "experimenting" that results in us losing a few winnable games but also developing our young guys or finding combos we didn't know we had. This lineup can not survive in the playoffs so as far as I'm concerned there is no point making them.

I don't mind a loss like the other night to Houston where the team shows some upside even in a loss. I hate losses like the ones prior where we blew big leads to not only lose but be blown out ourselves.

 

[Evenstar]

i'm not buying 34 wins. not with the way the kings have been giving away games at the free throw line over and over again.

we also have some meaty games remaining with dallas, phoenix, san antonio, the lakers and another game with detroit if i'm not mistaken. if we can't beat the knickers, how are we gonna beat those guys?

and yes i voted tank. this is supposed to be a very deep draft, why not take advantage of it when the kings obviously aren't going very far this year?

 

[BMiller52]

That is frankly too many wins. Winning 34 in our situation is a mini-disaster when you could win 24. In this draft especially. It could very well come true, but just like winning, losing is the same way: if you are going to lose you want to LOSE. There are major rewards at the end of the rainbow for big time losers. Few if any for middling nobodies.

I think the current roster wins 33-37, hopefully we go young, make trades, get cap room, and end up with 23-25 wins.

 

[Vlade4GM]

i think it's very important we get as high as we can, while it's a very good draft at the top and there are good talents all through the first round, the star potential isn't as good as it's being made out. there is more star potential in the 2008 draft, but 2007 you want to be in at least the top 7. it could change if arthur, thabeet, and hawes all enter, but you can't depend on that. we need to trade bibby and artest, and dump miller if we can. we need to start doing that soon because there will be a lot of competition for those top picks.

 

[Viking]

We need to lose now.

hoo boy what a difference in a few years eh


for the record i completely agree

 

[Big Cuz 15]

we are not gonna get the first pick nor the top5 pick either

if we tank this season...ARCO will be empty because Kings fans come to see the players play with all of what they got

and plus there will be other teams that will be worse than us, no matter how bad we are

as a loyal kings fan, i would rather watch some young kids scrap and hustle than some old vets that are going through the motions. it was good back in 98 when they had players like pollard and barry going for the ball.. whether diving or banging to get position for a rebound. thats the type of basketballplayers i wanna see.

 

[Gary]

Well its a lottery so no pick is guaranteed if we land between 1-4 worse records we have a solid chance at a top 2 pick which is were i beleive the elite in this class will land. That being Wright and Oden.

Hell, a guy like Noah would be great too... the top 5 are looking real good.

 

[most_casual_observer]

as a loyal kings fan, i would rather watch some young kids scrap and hustle than some old vets that are going through the motions. it was good back in 98 when they had players like pollard and barry going for the ball.. whether diving or banging to get position for a rebound. thats the type of basketballplayers i wanna see.

Agreed. If we must lose, let's lose with dignity expending maximum effort. Big difference between rookie mistakes and apathy.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Hell, a guy like Noah would be great too... the top 5 are looking real good.

too many things about noah bother me. he just looks like tyson chandler with passing ability. he's way too skinny, doesn't have much offensively especially a mid range game, and he doesn't really know how to block shots without giving up his defensive position as of yet. while he can improve on all this stuff, it's too much to ignore just because he was really good in the playoffs. I'd rather have Wright or Horford.

 

[chelle]

I could NEVER want them to lose on purpose. Not for any reason. Losing on purpose is always unacceptable to me. I know that most of you disagree. That's ok. I could just not endorse it.