Three Level Attack
- Thread starter Vinny Basketballerino
- Start date
Deadly serious. An entire team, save one new player, defy their collective career performance and underachieve in a vital part of the game. There must be a reason beyond pure happenstance, as is implied. Last season was not particularly stellar as well (specifically think Keegan) and neither was the 0-5 preseason shooting statistics. So actually, there is a 16 game sample this season. Be careful that enthusiasm doesn't blind judgement. It is an easy misstep to make, although completely understandable.
Does "Huh" mean that you don't comprehend the inference? Or is it that the several questions have no answer(s) that you can formulate?
Does "Huh" mean that you don't comprehend the inference? Or is it that the several questions have no answer(s) that you can formulate?
Just say it man, you know you want to. Stop pretending to beat around the bush. Everyone knows your schtick around here.
It is rather hilarious seeing you not answer the question though. Tell me again how a 11 game sample (or a 16 game sample) outweighs a career worth of shooting? And why we should not expect positive regression at some point this season?
It is rather hilarious seeing you not answer the question though. Tell me again how a 11 game sample (or a 16 game sample) outweighs a career worth of shooting? And why we should not expect positive regression at some point this season?
We’re not only really bad right now at open 3pters (22%), we’re 7% worse than the next worse team. It’ll correct itself in due time, but I would advise Brown to scheme some super wide open shots, build the guys’ confidence, and get them going. Maybe tell the team to take less shots in transition even if they’re open as they sometimes are not in rhythm, and instead go through the structure of the offense. Sometimes, you’ve got to intervene and change things up a bit which I’m sure Brown will do
The reason the questions were posed is that I don't have the answer to any of them. Rather, they are for consideration of possible reasons for a team condition that mystifies you and some thoughtful members of the forum. If the questions stimulate forum members to develop a theory and can site evidence, it would be of great interest to me and perhaps others.
"Just make your shots" is simplistic and unproductive advice that would be unlikely to lead to actually making shots. And rather than asking further questions, perhaps addressing what is already on the table would be insightful.
At any rate, the three-point offensive path the team has been on for 16 games does not bode well for a successful season should it continue. Finding a way off of that path is paramount IMO.
As far as your primary passive-aggressive paragraph, it is typical of your posting and not worthy of a civil response. So I will defer,
"Just make your shots" is simplistic and unproductive advice that would be unlikely to lead to actually making shots. And rather than asking further questions, perhaps addressing what is already on the table would be insightful.
At any rate, the three-point offensive path the team has been on for 16 games does not bode well for a successful season should it continue. Finding a way off of that path is paramount IMO.
As far as your primary passive-aggressive paragraph, it is typical of your posting and not worthy of a civil response. So I will defer,
It's implied what my response was through my question. Why should I care about a bad 11 game sample of shooting (no, preseason does not matter) and believe that is the norm going forward? Statistically, that's stupid. We should expect serious positive regression to the mean with our shooting, especially considering we're only shooting 22% on open threes (per Tizzy). Unless you think that's a sustainable margin of shooting for an entire 82 game season?
My response is simplistic, because that's the only way to solve this problem. You cannot lose the 3PA arms race in the modern NBA; sorry, just doesn't work. We're spotting teams 15 PPG on 3's right now... that's insane. It has to be fixed through making 3's and not helping off of shooters on defense. This does not mean we all of a sudden have to turn into last years Celtics and start chucking 50 3PA a game. That's not the strength of this team. But the thesis of this team does not work if our shooters can't hit the open kick-outs. If Keegan/Huerter/Monk/Lyles/Keon, especially, can't be 37%+ as a group? Eh, we're toast, since that will make it impossible for us to be a top 5 offensive team, which is our only win condition for being a playoff squad.
I've already stated my position on this in multiple posts over the last few days.
My response is simplistic, because that's the only way to solve this problem. You cannot lose the 3PA arms race in the modern NBA; sorry, just doesn't work. We're spotting teams 15 PPG on 3's right now... that's insane. It has to be fixed through making 3's and not helping off of shooters on defense. This does not mean we all of a sudden have to turn into last years Celtics and start chucking 50 3PA a game. That's not the strength of this team. But the thesis of this team does not work if our shooters can't hit the open kick-outs. If Keegan/Huerter/Monk/Lyles/Keon, especially, can't be 37%+ as a group? Eh, we're toast, since that will make it impossible for us to be a top 5 offensive team, which is our only win condition for being a playoff squad.
I've already stated my position on this in multiple posts over the last few days.
This is the part I want to respond to. Why do you think being a top 5 offense is our only win condition to make the playoffs?
Keon, Keegan, De'Aaron, and Domas all have very positive situational defensive metrics. Even DeMar is holding his own on the defensive end so far. As a team we're currently 12th in Defensive Rating and were top 10 after the All Star break last year. And that's with no defensive frontcourt help coming off the bench, Devin Carter sidelined, and Keegan as the only combo forward on the roster. It seems to me that there is a clear path to improving the defense from 12th into top 5 territory with one or two key roster additions. There are probably defensive roleplayers who are free agents right now who could help us for very little money.
On offense we mostly need guys to start shooting the ball at or at least near their career averages to maintain an above average rating. Is it that hard to conceive of a Sacramento team winning with elite defense and steady, predictable offense? Do we always have to be a glass cannon?
Keon, Keegan, De'Aaron, and Domas all have very positive situational defensive metrics. Even DeMar is holding his own on the defensive end so far. As a team we're currently 12th in Defensive Rating and were top 10 after the All Star break last year. And that's with no defensive frontcourt help coming off the bench, Devin Carter sidelined, and Keegan as the only combo forward on the roster. It seems to me that there is a clear path to improving the defense from 12th into top 5 territory with one or two key roster additions. There are probably defensive roleplayers who are free agents right now who could help us for very little money.
On offense we mostly need guys to start shooting the ball at or at least near their career averages to maintain an above average rating. Is it that hard to conceive of a Sacramento team winning with elite defense and steady, predictable offense? Do we always have to be a glass cannon?
It is apparent that you missed the fact that I expressed no position on any subject except to agree with your opinion that the 3-point offense (and defense) needs to improve. You can infer whatever you choose, but inventing an unexpressed position is not a valid tactic. It smacks of a "straw man" effort.
Ah, probably good to clarify. I think it's our "most likely" condition to win in the playoffs. I'd frankly be surprised if we were able to flip and be a top 5 defense and a top 15ish offense, considering our team personal. The stint at the end of last season did show us having real success, but hard to really trust that moving forward as something that can be sticky.
And it's just the reality of the situation being built around Domas/Fox/DDR/Monk as your main hubs. They're better defenders than the national media thinks, but I think it's fair to say all of them are known as offensive stars that are passable on defense. Fox CAN be a 2-way star; he's just been very inconsistent on that end throughout his career. This year though, he's had his best defensive start, so that's encouraging.
Maybe Carter getting integrated changes a lot and all of a sudden with him Keon and Keegan, that gives you enough to really lock teams down around the offensive hubs. But to me, the more likely scenario is a top 12-15 defense and one of the league's best offenses.
And it's just the reality of the situation being built around Domas/Fox/DDR/Monk as your main hubs. They're better defenders than the national media thinks, but I think it's fair to say all of them are known as offensive stars that are passable on defense. Fox CAN be a 2-way star; he's just been very inconsistent on that end throughout his career. This year though, he's had his best defensive start, so that's encouraging.
Maybe Carter getting integrated changes a lot and all of a sudden with him Keon and Keegan, that gives you enough to really lock teams down around the offensive hubs. But to me, the more likely scenario is a top 12-15 defense and one of the league's best offenses.
Why have we improved our free throw shooting this year? Is there an underlying theme or situation going on here? Is there something more nefarious going on? What kind of wizardry is happening?
To be fair on the 3 point shooting, I’m not worried as players end up performing to their norms typically…..not all of the players but a team wide slump does happen. Guys will get out of it. I liken this to a baseball team that gets on a roll as a team with hitting. Hitting can be contagious. And that is something you can’t put down on a spreadsheet. But it’s a mindset where others feed off the success of teammates. I think that making 3s is similar where it’s contagious as well as missing 3s Also being contagious. For data heads, this concept will blow their mind because you can’t put this to analytics.
To be fair on the 3 point shooting, I’m not worried as players end up performing to their norms typically…..not all of the players but a team wide slump does happen. Guys will get out of it. I liken this to a baseball team that gets on a roll as a team with hitting. Hitting can be contagious. And that is something you can’t put down on a spreadsheet. But it’s a mindset where others feed off the success of teammates. I think that making 3s is similar where it’s contagious as well as missing 3s Also being contagious. For data heads, this concept will blow their mind because you can’t put this to analytics.
So, related to the discussion about the necessity of 3PT shooting, it's interesting to note that as of now, shooting from both 2 and 3 is down this year over the entire league relative to last year. 2PT% has gone down from .545 (1.09 eFG%) to .541 (1.082 eFG%) and 3PT% has gone down from .366 (1.098 eFG%) to .355 (1.065 eFG%). That's on 2.0 additional 3PT attempts and 2.3 fewer 2PT attempts.
Although I don't know a way to find a true TS% for these (i.e. adding FT attempts for 2PT/3PT shots separately), the eFG% balance has switched, and barring a foul, threes are now LESS efficient than twos (so far). I don't exactly know how to square the 2PT% going down a bit on fewer attempts - %age of shots at the rim is very slightly up and %age of shots at any other distance (except three) is very slightly down, but shooting percentages are down at all distances. %age of dunks are down, %age of layups are down, %age of corner threes are down AND shooting %age on corner threes is down. Leaguewide. Just about the only thing that is up is the mean distance of each shot, but that might be wholly accounted for by the extra threes (I don't know mean distances only for 2PTs).
It seems to me that either something is going on defensively...unless somehow the ball changed? Maybe shooting just naturally ticks up as the season goes on? It's a bit weird. But if this trend holds, we may have reached an inflection point where twos are more efficient than threes. I really wouldn't have thought an extra 2.0 threes per game would have gotten us there, but maybe it did.
Although I don't know a way to find a true TS% for these (i.e. adding FT attempts for 2PT/3PT shots separately), the eFG% balance has switched, and barring a foul, threes are now LESS efficient than twos (so far). I don't exactly know how to square the 2PT% going down a bit on fewer attempts - %age of shots at the rim is very slightly up and %age of shots at any other distance (except three) is very slightly down, but shooting percentages are down at all distances. %age of dunks are down, %age of layups are down, %age of corner threes are down AND shooting %age on corner threes is down. Leaguewide. Just about the only thing that is up is the mean distance of each shot, but that might be wholly accounted for by the extra threes (I don't know mean distances only for 2PTs).
It seems to me that either something is going on defensively...unless somehow the ball changed? Maybe shooting just naturally ticks up as the season goes on? It's a bit weird. But if this trend holds, we may have reached an inflection point where twos are more efficient than threes. I really wouldn't have thought an extra 2.0 threes per game would have gotten us there, but maybe it did.
It's just circumstantial really, but I have noticed a lot less shooting fouls being called in the past week.... Not just in our games but in roughly 2/3 of the games on any given day. Adam Silver was noticeably miffed at last year's All Star game and we saw a similar uptick in "play on" no calls immediately thereafter. Again, just circumstantial, but it could be that the scoring arms race has pushed the limits of what the league thinks is good for their brand and a deliberate return to allowing more contact is the result.
whenever I watch these national TV games, the commentators mentioned how the NBA defensive rules are giving defenses a bit more leeway in defending so I think that could be the reasoning behind less efficiency overall. This however does not apply if you are Shai or Harden, but other than that, it's been reasonable in terms of allowing more freedom for defenses. Still needs improvement but I'll take it for the time being.