The Light at the End of the Tunnel – Looking Ahead to the Draft

[hrdboild]

so you would take a big over a super talented swing? IE michael jordan? i'd go for talent over size

Maybe we should revisit this after the NCAA tournament when we actually have some means of comparing these players. I think Hibbert is a lot better than people give him credit for. Shoots a ridiculously good % from the field, defends, rebounds, respectable from the free throw line, a great passer. Portland taking Oden over Durant wasn't a mistake. No team is going anywhere without a solid big guy in the middle. We have absolutely nothing in our frontcourt, nothing. We're talking about starting an undrafted guy at PF because our veterans can't grab more than 5 rebounds in 40 minutes. And anyone thinking about rebuilding around Spencer Hawes at center is crazy.

Replacing Bibby with Mayo or Rose leaves us in lottery territory. I think it's a lot easier to find a starting PG in this league than a legitimate starting C. In the upcoming draft alone you've got Rose, Mayo, Collison, Lawson, and DJ Augustin. The question is -- are Mayo or Rose good enough to lead a team to the Finals all by themselves? Lebron did that last year and then got demolished by the Spurs. At some point we're going to have to look at getting a respectable starting C and PF or you can forget about us ever winning anything meaningful and I think (based on what I saw last year and what I know so far about the guys in this years draft) that Hibbert is the best guy for us.

Like I said, we should revisit this after the NCAA tournament when we see who's the real deal and who just has "potential". I'm just saying, the only one of these guys who's proven anything at the college basketball level right now is Hibbert.

 

[BMiller52]

Maybe we should revisit this after the NCAA tournament when we actually have some means of comparing these players. I think Hibbert is a lot better than people give him credit for. Shoots a ridiculously good % from the field, defends, rebounds, respectable from the free throw line, a great passer. Portland taking Oden over Durant wasn't a mistake. No team is going anywhere without a solid big guy in the middle. We have absolutely nothing in our frontcourt, nothing. We're talking about starting an undrafted guy at PF because our veterans can't grab more than 5 rebounds in 40 minutes. And anyone thinking about rebuilding around Spencer Hawes at center is crazy.

Replacing Bibby with Mayo or Rose leaves us in lottery territory. I think it's a lot easier to find a starting PG in this league than a legitimate starting C. In the upcoming draft alone you've got Rose, Mayo, Collison, Lawson, and DJ Augustin. The question is -- are Mayo or Rose good enough to lead a team to the Finals all by themselves? Lebron did that last year and then got demolished by the Spurs. At some point we're going to have to look at getting a respectable starting C and PF or you can forget about us ever winning anything meaningful and I think (based on what I saw last year and what I know so far about the guys in this years draft) that Hibbert is the best guy for us.

Like I said, we should revisit this after the NCAA tournament when we see who's the real deal and who just has "potential". I'm just saying, the only one of these guys who's proven anything at the college basketball level right now is Hibbert.

So you haven't even seen him play yet and you are saying he'll never be a good player? WTF that's dumb. Let him have a chance. Hibbert hasn't done anything either honestly. He's big, slow, stiff, never has been a good rebounder. Comparing him to Oden is pretty funny. Oden was in his 1st year of college basketball and had missed part of the season with a broken wrist. Hibbert had 3 years. He didn't really do anything for his 1st 2 and then last year he was pretty good, but again nothing special.

You win with SUPERSTARS, Rose has a chance to be a superstar. Hibbert doesn't.

 

[hrdboild]

So you haven't even seen him play yet and you are saying he'll never be a good player? WTF that's dumb. Let him have a chance. Hibbert hasn't done anything either honestly. He's big, slow, stiff, never has been a good rebounder. Comparing him to Oden is pretty funny. Oden was in his 1st year of college basketball and had missed part of the season with a broken wrist. Hibbert had 3 years. He didn't really do anything for his 1st 2 and then last year he was pretty good, but again nothing special.

You win with SUPERSTARS, Rose has a chance to be a superstar. Hibbert doesn't.

I'm not saying Hawes won't be a good player. I'm saying he won't be the starting C on a championship team. Hibbert's team went to the Final Four last year and almost beat Ohio State in a game in which he outplayed the number 1 pick in the draft whereas Hawes wasn't even the best player on a bad team that didn't make the tournament. You're telling me Hibbert is nothing special and I'm crazy for being skeptical of Spencer Hawes? I'm sorry, that doesn't add up to me.

PS -- What everyone says about Hibbert is that he's big, slow, and stiff. First of all, I don't know when being "big" became a bad thing in a basketball player. Seems to me a lot of teams draft players who've got that as their only positive attribute. Secondly, if he's really that slow and stiff how did he block 2.4 shots per game and shoot 67% from the field? Nobody in the league is slower or stiffer than Yao Ming yet he's an All-Star, and one of the 2 or 3 best centers in the game, because he makes his shots and he gets his rebounds. Anyone that big who knows how to play basketball doesn't need a killer crossover to dominate the game. There's a difference between being slow, unathletic and undersized for your position and being slow, unathletic, and the biggest player on the court. Here -- just look at the stats yourself and tell me he isn't effective:

http://www.draftexpress.com/viewprofile.php?p=585&page=stats

 

[Arby's Roast Beef]

I'm also crazy about Rose, but there's a huge chance that he'll land somewhere between the #1 and #3 picks, and I happen to think that he's better than Mayo, so #1 is a distinct possiblity. He possesses all the tools we lack at the PG position, hell scratch that...what we lack at every position: athleticism, ability to drive, create like a true playmaker, tough defense, etc. His major drawback, shooting so far, is filled in with all the wing scorers we have on this team. He's a truly unique prospect, finally a guard who possesses all-around tools that doesn't exactly relate to scoring and shooting, which are tripe in the NBA...and that's the reason I fell in love with Rajon Rondo's game in the first place.

That being said...we may be bad enough to be the worst team (or one of the three/four worst teams in the NBA), but a lot of this process depends on luck. Theus is clearly not a guy who wants to tank at all, so there's no excuse for that as our guys are trying hard but losing due to dearth of talent. This is a deep draft, but we should clearly be ecstatic with Rose fell to our laps; otherwise, potential bonafide stars who don't really fill our needs as much, such as Mayo, Love, Eric Gordon, DeAndre Jordan and Roy Hibbert would not be exactly bad.

 

[Bricklayer]

Thing is that you have to aim for the greatest talent when you basically have four future starting spots open. Hell, five spots open if you are talking chance to draft a superstar. You'd have to be foolish for instance to pass oa Kobe or Wade type player just because you had Kevin.

In any case, Hibbert may or may not be a good NBA center. There are certainly obvious attractions, although the rebounding is a little scary. Or he might end up just being a serviceable starter ala Brendan Haywood rather than a star. But if you are picking 7th or some such, and that's what you come up with, that's fine. Let Hibbert and Hawes go forward as your young center duo, each bringing something different to the table (albeit possibly neither guy grabbing rebounds which just gets old).

But Rose has star written on him. And you can't pass that up if you were to get a Top 3 pick (which is almost surely what it would take to get him). We need bigs yes. Badly. But we need great young talent even more, and a star to lead us in the future.

 

[Vlade4GM]

You're comparing Hawes as a freshman to Hibbert as a junior. How is that a fair comparison? Especially when you're comparing college stats which aren't always black and white, just look at JJ Redick. A team can't win a championship with Hawes as a center? Please, that's totally and completely baseless. Why can't he? Because he was on a college team that was not very good? Fact is we did draft Hawes and we're not going to trade him on the account of Roy Hibbert, especially when we wouldn't get anything for Hawes and we'd waste our pick at a position we already have a young player with potential at. PF or PG should be our main priorities.

Hibbert is not Yao ming, he's not as skilled and he's definitely not as tall and long. He's big (7'2 280-290), long (that's why he gets those blocks at the college level), he's got solid skills (decent hook/passing/jumpshot). However he's a slug, poor stamina, and his skills are not at a Yao level (not even close). He may be long and quick enough to block 2+ a game at the college level, but things change in the NBA, game gets much quicker and his reaction time is not good enough for an elite shot blocker. His post moves are limited and predictable. His ceiling is Illgauskas.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Thing is that you have to aim for the greatest talent when you basically have four future starting spots open. Hell, five spots open if you are talking chance to draft a superstar. You'd have to be foolish for instance to pass oa Kobe or Wade type player just because you had Kevin.

In any case, Hibbert may or may not be a good NBA center. There are certainly obvious attractions, although the rebounding is a little scary. Or he might end up just being a serviceable starter ala Brendan Haywood rather than a star. But if you are picking 7th or some such, and that's what you come up with, that's fine. Let Hibbert and Hawes go forward as your young center duo, each bringing something different to the table (albeit possibly neither guy grabbing rebounds which just gets old).

But Rose has star written on him. And you can't pass that up if you were to get a Top 3 pick (which is almost surely what it would take to get him). We need bigs yes. Badly. But we need great young talent even more, and a star to lead us in the future.

I would take Serge Ibaka before I took Hibbert. Hibbert doesn't really do anything at this point. If he stayed in the draft this year, yea it probably wouldn't have hurt to take him but that wasn't the case. We can't screw around next year's draft.

 

[Arby's Roast Beef]

I would take Serge Ibaka before I took Hibbert. Hibbert doesn't really do anything at this point. If he stayed in the draft this year, yea it probably wouldn't have hurt to take him but that wasn't the case. We can't screw around next year's draft.

There are still some skeptics that believe that Hibbert is still an overachieving college player, even despite the fact that he dispelled most of those notions already the past year. He's made strides in a lot of areas, but he's still perceived as clumsy, mechanical, not enough jumpshot/mobility to translate to the NBA level...in other words, yet another good college player/bad NBA player stereotype. The biggest knock on Hibbert may well in fact be the past stereotypes that scouts have placed on him. Many hope for a Zydrunas Ilgauskas prototype, but there is a fear of a Greg Ostertag within him.

Serge Ibaka...someone brought that up in another thread. Athletic, talented, big, mobile, developing jumpshot. Combine those five, you automatically have many NBA scouts scribble your name down on the top 20 of some future mock draft. But that's a lot of clay...how does it translate to an NBA setting? We've seen enough references of African prospects to know how these prototypes may fare--Saer Sene, Johan Petro, DJ Mbenga etc.--and I happen to think that he may be better than all three solely because of that jumper. He's still an unknown commodity, but if he can hone that J he can definitely increase his stock. But to put him in top 10 draft talks right now and associating him with the Kings--IMO I don't think we need a project--is sort of ludicrous.

 

[Vlade4GM]

There are still some skeptics that believe that Hibbert is still an overachieving college player, even despite the fact that he dispelled most of those notions already the past year. He's made strides in a lot of areas, but he's still perceived as clumsy, mechanical, not enough jumpshot/mobility to translate to the NBA level...in other words, yet another good college player/bad NBA player stereotype. The biggest knock on Hibbert may well in fact be the past stereotypes that scouts have placed on him. Many hope for a Zydrunas Ilgauskas prototype, but there is a fear of a Greg Ostertag within him.

Serge Ibaka...someone brought that up in another thread. Athletic, talented, big, mobile, developing jumpshot. Combine those five, you automatically have many NBA scouts scribble your name down on the top 20 of some future mock draft. But that's a lot of clay...how does it translate to an NBA setting? We've seen enough references of African prospects to know how these prototypes may fare--Saer Sene, Johan Petro, DJ Mbenga etc.--and I happen to think that he may be better than all three solely because of that jumper. He's still an unknown commodity, but if he can hone that J he can definitely increase his stock. But to put him in top 10 draft talks right now and associating him with the Kings--IMO I don't think we need a project--is sort of ludicrous.

I'm not huge on Ibaka but I'd definitely take his upside over Hibbert.

 

[BMiller52]

There are still some skeptics that believe that Hibbert is still an overachieving college player, even despite the fact that he dispelled most of those notions already the past year. He's made strides in a lot of areas, but he's still perceived as clumsy, mechanical, not enough jumpshot/mobility to translate to the NBA level...in other words, yet another good college player/bad NBA player stereotype. The biggest knock on Hibbert may well in fact be the past stereotypes that scouts have placed on him. Many hope for a Zydrunas Ilgauskas prototype, but there is a fear of a Greg Ostertag within him.

Serge Ibaka...someone brought that up in another thread. Athletic, talented, big, mobile, developing jumpshot. Combine those five, you automatically have many NBA scouts scribble your name down on the top 20 of some future mock draft. But that's a lot of clay...how does it translate to an NBA setting? We've seen enough references of African prospects to know how these prototypes may fare--Saer Sene, Johan Petro, DJ Mbenga etc.--and I happen to think that he may be better than all three solely because of that jumper. He's still an unknown commodity, but if he can hone that J he can definitely increase his stock. But to put him in top 10 draft talks right now and associating him with the Kings--IMO I don't think we need a project--is sort of ludicrous.

I don't know, I'd rather have Arthur than Ibaka but I'd take Ibaka over Hibbert. They just compliment the players we have(Martin/Hawes) way better than Hibbert. Also more potential.

BTW everyone, speaking of Rose:

MEMPHIS, Tenn. (AP) -- Derrick Rose didn't take long to adjust to the college game.

The highly touted freshman had 17 points, six rebounds and five assists in his collegiate debut and No. 3 Memphis beat Tennessee-Martin 102-71 on Monday night in the 2K Sports College Hoops Classic.

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=273090235

HE IS OUR MAN!!!!!

God a Rose/Martin backcourt would be just perfect.

 

[Arby's Roast Beef]

I don't know, I'd rather have Arthur than Ibaka but I'd take Ibaka over Hibbert. They just compliment the players we have(Martin/Hawes) way better than Hibbert. Also more potential.
.

Maybe it's just me, but I'm not high on Darrell Arthur at all. He's an Al Harrington type athlete; a near freak athlete who uses the athleticism well offensively, but not particularly well defensively. Don't get me wrong, he will block a couple shots due to sheer length, but before he does that he will more than likely rack up a couple fouls due to his average at best basketball IQ and defensive fundamentals. In fact, Harrington may not be a bad comparison at all, seeing how Arthur can run the floor and hit the mid-range J. He's polished, young, and clearly talented enough for more potential, but to me he's a draft pick more in the #10-15 range. Methinks we need defensive athletes over offensive athletes for this team.

 

[BMiller52]

Nah I'd say he's more like a taller Tyrus Thomas or Antonio McDyess(prime). Harrington never had Arthur's length or athleticism. He's never been a shotblocker or rebounder. In Arthur's freshman year he got 1.5 blocks and 5 RPG in like less than 20 MPG. He has a ton of potential.

 

[BMiller52]

BTW about Beasley:

Michael Beasley still isn't allowed to speak with reporters, but his play on the court Saturday certainly spoke for itself.

Beasley scored 35 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in his first game for Kansas State, leading the Wildcats to a 95-59 exhibition victory over Fort Hays State.


Coach Frank Marin is keeping Beasley and the rest of Kansas State's stellar recruiting class from talking to the media until further notice.

Redshirt freshman Bill Walker added 19 points for the Wildcats, who shot 48.6 percent from the field. Freshman point guard Jacob Pullen had 13 points, and Blake Young finished with 10.

Fort Hays State shot 11-of-20 from the behind the arc and was led by Jake Sims with 13 points. The Tigers committed 27 turnovers.

Kansas State closed the first half on a 16-0 run, as Fort Hays State didn't score in the final 7:11 and committed 10 of its 19 first-half turnovers in that span. The Wildcats led 38-19 at the break.

Beasley, the No. 1 recruit in the nation according to Rivals.com, scored 10 straight points for the Wildcats during a four-minute span in the second half to spread the gap to 77-38.

Kansas State is No. 25 in the preseason rankings, marking the first time the Wildcats have been ranked to start the season since 1975.

Kansas State's regular season begins Nov. 9 against Sacramento State.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/basketball/ncaa/11/03/beasley.exhibition.ap/index.html?eref=fromMySIScreenServer&distSource=2

The guy seems a little like a slightly shorter Webber to me without as much passing honestly. He has a good post game, good handles, a good outside game, very good rebounder, very athletic, 6'9'', and just a very good talented player. I wouldn't object if we picked him at all.

 

[Big Cuz 15]

I don't know, I'd rather have Arthur than Ibaka but I'd take Ibaka over Hibbert. They just compliment the players we have(Martin/Hawes) way better than Hibbert. Also more potential.

BTW everyone, speaking of Rose:

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=273090235

HE IS OUR MAN!!!!!

God a Rose/Martin backcourt would be just perfect.

you need a tony parker stopper? he is on the same level and could potentially give him problems with that extra height.

 

[Big Cuz 15]

BTW about Beasley:


The guy seems a little like a slightly shorter Webber to me without as much passing honestly. He has a good post game, good handles, a good outside game, very good rebounder, very athletic, 6'9'', and just a very good talented player. I wouldn't object if we picked him at all.

i wouldn't object to taking him if rose was off the board. however, i wouldn't take him in front of rose. the guy looks like a antoine walker type player.

 

[Gary]

My perfect scenario would be to have two picks in the top 10 and grab DeAndre Jordan, and Derrick Rose.. that right there will get us into the playoffs in one year...

C-Hawes (play Hawes and Jordan together)
PF-Jordan
SF-Artest
SG-Martin
PG-Rose

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SByv27EERgU

 

[BritishColumbia]

My perfect scenario would be to have two picks in the top 10 and grab DeAndre Jordan, and Derrick Rose.. that right there will get us into the playoffs in one year...

C-Hawes (play Hawes and Jordan together)
PF-Jordan
SF-Artest
SG-Martin
PG-Rose

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SByv27EERgU

Looks great but how can we get 2 Top-10 picks ??? ....

I think Kings will draft either Rose, OJ (Top-3 picks) or Collison (Top-10) .. depends on our #.

 

[dude12]

The guy I don't want is the big guy from North Carolina, his name escapes me right now. He's not athletic and got outplayed in the tourney last year when going up against the real athletic big men.

Rose had a very nice debut, I'm sold on the guy. I'm also a fan of Collison.

 

[Jerryaki]

The guy I don't want is the big guy from North Carolina, his name escapes me right now. He's not athletic and got outplayed in the tourney last year when going up against the real athletic big men.

You're thinking of Tyler Hansborough.

mortal lock to be in a kings jersey next year, then.

 

[Merdiesel]

When it come to the draft, it doesn't matter what position we need (we need alot). You always pick the best availible player, no matter what.

 

[ForlornKing]

Not if he's a SG.

 

[AyeCarly]

When it come to the draft, it doesn't matter what position we need (we need alot). You always pick the best availible player, no matter what.

This makes sense to me.

Not if he's a SG.

So you'd pass on MJ for Sam Bowie too!

 

[dude12]

You're thinking of Tyler Hansborough.

One player who seems to get overlooked because of a perceived lack of athleticism is Kevin Love. But there's something to be said about good fundamentals (oh, say, Tim Duncan?) and Love should pan out to be a very good back-to-the-basket PF in the NBA who can also step outside and hit a jumper, at least to the college three range. Rebounds. Passes well, especially the outlet.

He may not be a top-three pick and I certainly wouldn't pass on Rose for him, but he might be a safer bet than some of the more athletic projects and tweeners in the draft (Ibaka, Beasley, Arthur).

I understand about the lack of athleticism or percieved lack thereof on some players versus the sound fundamental of a Duncan....but lets make it clear that Love right now can only dream about being Duncan. Duncan while not being an athletic freak like KG is still damn athletic for a big guy. Also, we are not the Rick Adelman-go through your big man- passing through the high post- offense anymore. Not sure what we are at this point as we don't have the horses but Theus' brand of player is different from the Adelman type. I'll take the best player available but if a big-man and PG are close to being the best player out there, I'm taking one ofthem.

 

[Jerryaki]

So you'd pass on MJ for Sam Bowie too!

you only say things like that in hindsight.

 

[mbkings10]

Wouldn't you say we already have a pretty offensively fundamental player in Hawes?

 

[Vlade4GM]

Let's be honest here. Right now there are about 29 starting power forwards and 30 starting centers in the league that can only dream about being Duncan, the lone obvious exception being Duncan.

My point is that Duncan has become an all-time great on the basis of freak fundamentals, not freak athleticism. And despite his advanced development, I don't think anybody currently sees Kevin Love as the next coming of Duncan - he's about two inches shorter, for one. Duncan is just the example that fundamentals plus attainable athleticism can bring a big man's NBA ceiling up real high, so long as the fundamentals are really good.

Love does have really good fundamentals, and enough gym, enough treadmill, and enough desire will keep him at a level of acceptable athleticism to play in the NBA. Some other guys may be leaps and bounds ahead of him athletically, but he's post moves and box outs ahead of them fundamentally. Maybe they get it, maybe they don't. Love already has it.

It's hard to predict the draft this far out, but I could see Love falling into the 10-15 range (assuming he declares) because of more athletic, less polished guys being taken ahead of him. But the list of guys who will actually be better is probably shorter...(Rose, Mayo, Beasley as a SF, Batum?)

Love may not jump out of the gym, but he's a pretty quick leaper and that should bode well for his rebounding and blocks.

 

[LPKingsFan]

Let's be honest here. Right now there are about 29 starting power forwards and 30 starting centers in the league that can only dream about being Duncan, the lone obvious exception being Duncan.

My point is that Duncan has become an all-time great on the basis of freak fundamentals, not freak athleticism. And despite his advanced development, I don't think anybody currently sees Kevin Love as the next coming of Duncan - he's about two inches shorter, for one. Duncan is just the example that fundamentals plus attainable athleticism can bring a big man's NBA ceiling up real high, so long as the fundamentals are really good.

Love does have really good fundamentals, and enough gym, enough treadmill, and enough desire will keep him at a level of acceptable athleticism to play in the NBA. Some other guys may be leaps and bounds ahead of him athletically, but he's post moves and box outs ahead of them fundamentally. Maybe they get it, maybe they don't. Love already has it.

It's hard to predict the draft this far out, but I could see Love falling into the 10-15 range (assuming he declares) because of more athletic, less polished guys being taken ahead of him. But the list of guys who will actually be better is probably shorter...(Rose, Mayo, Beasley as a SF, Batum?)

Again, Elton Brand is a better comparison than Duncan, especially considering size. But both are pie-in-the sky best case scenarios.

 

[BMiller52]

i wouldn't object to taking him if rose was off the board. however, i wouldn't take him in front of rose. the guy looks like a antoine walker type player.

Nah he's way more athletic than Walker ever was. I'd say if he's 6'9'' a slightly smaller guy similar to Webber's skill set or if he's 6'8''-6'7'' he could be like a bigger poor man's Barkley. The guy has a good post game, a ton of athleticism, and rebounds very well.

 

[beb0p]

Nah I'd say he's more like a taller Tyrus Thomas or Antonio McDyess(prime). Harrington never had Arthur's length or athleticism. He's never been a shotblocker or rebounder. In Arthur's freshman year he got 1.5 blocks and 5 RPG in like less than 20 MPG. He has a ton of potential.

Nah, Tyrus and McDyess were monsters in college. Authur is a tweener. Most of all, he's not a good rebounder. I remember he could go for weeks without getting more than 4 rebounds a game. I know some people say Julian Wright took all the rebs away from Aurthur, but think about it, the PF should take rebs away from the SF, not the other way around. His stats look nice because he had a great start that padded his stats, but he faded away quickly.

We need a monster shot-blocker/rebounder at the 4. Authur is basically a weak PF. Until he packs on another 25 pounds of muscle and develops a nose for the rebounds, he's going to end up like Joe Smith; who was a real monster in college but got knocked down (literally) in the pros because he was weak and skinny.

Fact is, next year's draft is thin on quality big men. There is no 20-10 player in there.

 

[LPKingsFan]

Fair enough on the Brand comparison. To be clear on my thinking - I don't think Love has much chance of becoming a franchise player, and there are probably several big guys in the draft who'll have a better shot at that. But Love may have the best shot of any of them at becoming a top-15 PF. With Love you're probably compromising and getting a somewhat lower ceiling in exchange for a significantly higher floor. Analogous to what we saw in Shane Battier (ceiling/floorwise, not that I think Love will move down to an SF/SG swingman).

I agree with the floor/ceiling plan, but I'm not sure if that's what the Kings should do. Should we roll the dice hoping for a franchise player? Look back on the 2001 draft. The Wiz clearly rolled the dice and got the wrong high school project (Kwame instead of Chandler). But would they be much better off if they had drafted Battier (who went, what, sixth that year?)?

I'm not sure if I know the answer. I do know I'd be a lot more comfortable if we somehow ditched the deadweight vets and came up with another pick or two next year.