The Keys to our Postseason (merged)

[Superman]

The Keys to our Postseason

Just a few thoughts I had while watching the game today. These are things that I think we need to address, and if we do, we'll have a shot at an extended run in the playoffs:

1. Rebounding
I remember at the start of the season, a few of us were hoping that our starting frontcourt (Brad, Chris and Peja) could combine for somewhere around 25 rebounds a game.

When you look at the rebounding out of Kenny Thomas and Brian Skinner these past couple of weeks, I think that that's entirely possible. With a 25-28 rebound per night average out of our starting frontcourt, and with Bibby's 4 and Cuttino's 4, that's about 35 rebounds a game out of our current starting lineup. If Brad and Bobby come back to round out our rotation and can combine for 12 a game (8 from Brad and 4 from Bobby) in the playoffs, we actually have a chance at being a strong rebounding team for the first time in years. That's without even mentioning the 5 or 10 rebounds that our 8th and 9th players might grab collectively.

Phoenix leads the League this season with 44 rebounds a game. Dallas is 6th with 43.21 every night. Houston is 10th with 42.4 per contest. San Antonio is 13th with 42.15, and we're 15th with 42.01. Using the stats above, we might be able to average 45+ rebounds a game in the playoffs, which would give us a good shot at getting out of the first round and building some momentum as we go into the second bracket.

I think that, come playoff time, we are going to be a tough team to beat, not just because we might be a good rebounding team, but because we have a team with a lot of proven veterans that are starting to play well together, are well-coached and want to win.

2. Peja
It scares me just as much as it scares everyone else, but we need Peja to play strong in the playoffs as much as we need Mike to play strong in the playoffs. And by strong, I don't mean that we need him to average 25/8/4; I mean that we need him to give a damn. Too many times this season, there's been justifiable cause to question Peja's desire to be a King, to play when he's on the floor, to fight through injuries, etc. You may not agree with it, but most would agree that he's played less than inspired basketball 60 out of the 80 games this season.

We can't survive without him playing hard. We need him to take advantage of the tools he has, hustle, and pour his heart into his job in order to even have a chance at making anything happen. I hope he does that.

3. Coaching
No small ball lineups for extended stretches. No wasted timeouts or 13-4 runs, especially against more athletic teams (which is just about every team in the playoffs; we might be the most unathletic team in the playoffs this year). No looking at Ostertag balance the bench when we need a thug to stop the graceful forays into the paint. No stupid stuff. We need Rick to take charge. We know he'll have the team prepared, but we need him to coach during the game.

That's all. Feel free to comment, criticize, complain, bash, whatever.

GO KINGS!

 

[piksi]

You may not agree with it, but most would agree that he's played less than inspired basketball 60 out of the 80 games this season.

I do not agree at all. He has not played as well and as consistant as he did last Year but 60/80 is ridicoulous

 

[BibbyForPrez]

I have to agree with piksi, you can tell peja has had the hardest time adjusting this year but he's still pulling down 20 points a game. I think he'll surprise us in the next couple of weeks.

 

[VF21]

I do not agree at all. He has not played as well and as consistant as he did last Year but 60/80 is ridicoulous

Not ridiculous. Maybe an exaggeration, but until recently Peja has not looked good on the court. I will give him a lot of credit for his recent improvement and upturn and not even delve into the possible reasons, but I don't think you can simply dismiss Superman's comments out of hand with a "ridiculous" label...

---------------------------------

Good assessment, Supes, and I pretty much agree down the line.

We DO need Peja to give a damn. We DO need the team to show up every single night like they give a damn.

The one area I might disagree with in principle is the part about Adelman. I think he's done an absolutely incredible job getting this team to where it is now and your comment sounds just a tad too much like lambasting for my tastes and sensibilities. I think Adelman has done what he thought needed to be done when he thought it needed to be done. It may not have always ended up being the right thing but I'm still very comfortable with him coaching the games his way.

 

[teamdimechampionship]

He has only played like 60 games. I'd say 20 were absolute zero efforts! 15 coming back from injury (working himself back into shape) the rest he has been trying... just not a great year for him....If we are gonna make a run Peja needs to shoot the lights out!

 

[Team Dime]

I do not agree at all. He has not played as well and as consistant as he did last Year but 60/80 is ridicoulous

I'll agree that 60/80 may a bit of a stretch but it's been way too often this year where Peja's heart and desire have been clearly lacking. For whatever reason, it's unacceptable. Lately he's seem to have come out of it and resemble the player formerly known as Peja. However, the question remains as to what the Kings will get out of him in the playoffs. He really has to to prove himself as a good playoff performer. We better not see another disappearing act like last year. Piksi, I know you like Peja (I hope he does well) but the time of truth is coming soon for Peja to show what he's all about.

One more thing, other than just being himself and shooting well in the playoffs, we need him to rebound. He's 6'10', there's no reason he shouldn't be grabbing 6-10 boards a night.

 

[Heuge]

I do not agree at all. He has not played as well and as consistant as he did last Year but 60/80 is ridicoulous

According to your silly sig, its pretty close.

 

[KP]

Peja is the #1 key because he is the most unknown quantity come playoff time. I agree with your assesments except for Adelman of course, He's forgotten more about coaching than any of us. That should be even more obvious to you now after the last few months, then ever. Tag still isn't playing, and we are still in the 5th spot, which is a lot better spot than I thought we would be in. Whatever Adelman is doing he should keep it up. We need to score, and score, and score some more, to win and it's going to hinge on Peja. If he can stay aggressive and play like he has I like our chances in the first round.

 

[iheartBrad]

I'd definetly have to agree that Peja without a doubt would be the #1 key to our success if any in the POs

 

[piksi]

Not ridiculous. Maybe an exaggeration, but until recently Peja has not looked good on the court. I will give him a lot of credit for his recent improvement and upturn and not even delve into the possible reasons, but I don't think you can simply dismiss Superman's comments out of hand with a "ridiculous" label...

well, I only complained about 60/80 - not about the rest

 

[BigWaxer]

I'd definetly have to agree that Peja without a doubt would be the #1 key to our success if any in the POs

Rebounding and Defense will be the true #1 key. As far as players on an individual level it has to be PEJA VU time.

 

[Kajun]

Just a few thoughts I had while watching the game today. These are things that I think we need to address, and if we do, we'll have a shot at an extended run in the playoffs:

1. Rebounding
I remember at the start of the season, a few of us were hoping that our starting frontcourt (Brad, Chris and Peja) could combine for somewhere around 25 rebounds a game.

When you look at the rebounding out of Kenny Thomas and Brian Skinner these past couple of weeks, I think that that's entirely possible. With a 25-28 rebound per night average out of our starting frontcourt, and with Bibby's 4 and Cuttino's 4, that's about 35 rebounds a game out of our current starting lineup. If Brad and Bobby come back to round out our rotation and can combine for 12 a game (8 from Brad and 4 from Bobby) in the playoffs, we actually have a chance at being a strong rebounding team for the first time in years. That's without even mentioning the 5 or 10 rebounds that our 8th and 9th players might grab collectively.

Phoenix leads the League this season with 44 rebounds a game. Dallas is 6th with 43.21 every night. Houston is 10th with 42.4 per contest. San Antonio is 13th with 42.15, and we're 15th with 42.01. Using the stats above, we might be able to average 45+ rebounds a game in the playoffs, which would give us a good shot at getting out of the first round and building some momentum as we go into the second bracket.

I think that, come playoff time, we are going to be a tough team to beat, not just because we might be a good rebounding team, but because we have a team with a lot of proven veterans that are starting to play well together, are well-coached and want to win.

Some general comments about the use of statistics;

You can't just add up potential rebound/game numbers for Brad and Bobby. With them having more play time will automatically affect the numbers of the teammates (esp. Kenny and Skinner); the degree of which you can't really predict.

Secondly, a team averaging alot of rebounds per game does not necessarily imply being good at rebounding. The pace of a match is one factor into this; some teams play at a higher pace than others, and are likely to attempt more field goals AND face more attempts by the opposing team in a match. With a similar FG%, these teams will most likely have more rebounds per game, on average.
Also, teams with better defense will force more bad shots, resulting into a lower FG% for their opponents. If the opponents miss more shots, the number of rebounds will likely tip in the team's (with better defense) favour.

What I'm trying to say, is that it is a flawed stat. Sure, it does point out things, but you can't make direct conclusions about it. Phoenix being 1st in rebounds per game would seem like they're the best. But the reason for that probably is that nobody plays at a higher pace, at the moment.

A lot of the great stat sites, 82games.com, knickerblogger.net/stats and so on, have embraced some statistical measures proposed by John Hollinger (now at ESPN Insider) and Dean Oliver (Statistical Consultant for the Supersonics). One of them is the offensive rebound and defensive rebound %.

It basically measures the rate you get away with either an offensive or defensive rebound, given the total amount of rebounds:
Team OReb% = TeammOReb / (TeamOReb + OppDReb)
Team DReb% = TeamDReb/ (TeamDReb + OppOReb)

Not a perfect stat, but certainly a bit more telling.

For the playoff teams in the west, the numbers are as follows (numbers could be old, from april 8, 82games.com don't update on daily basis i think):

Offensive Rebound % (Team Average / Opponent Average):
PHO 29%-33%
SAS 30%-28%
SEA 34%-31%
DAL 30%-31%
SAC 29%-32%
HOU 28%-27%
DEN 30%-31%
MEM 29%-32%

Defensive Rebound % (Team Average / Opponent Average):
PHO 66%-70%
SAS 71%-69%
SEA 68%-65%
DAL 68%-69%
SAC 67%-70%
HOU 72%-71%
DEN 68%-69%
MEM 67%-70%

Basically, you can say teams like San Antonio, Seattle and Houston make the most of their opportunities, and are more efficient at rebounding. The Kings, as expected, are not nearly as efficient.

These are season numbers though, and for fun you could only have the stats calculated for the games since the trade. Both Skinner and Thomas have good rebound rates, and I wouldn't be surprised if the rebounds percentages are actually a little bit higher right now (which would strengthen your observation). Alas, I haven't seen those numbers.

 

[Superman]

Not ridiculous. Maybe an exaggeration, but until recently Peja has not looked good on the court. I will give him a lot of credit for his recent improvement and upturn and not even delve into the possible reasons, but I don't think you can simply dismiss Superman's comments out of hand with a "ridiculous" label...

---------------------------------

Good assessment, Supes, and I pretty much agree down the line.

We DO need Peja to give a damn. We DO need the team to show up every single night like they give a damn.

I knew you'd agree.

The one area I might disagree with in principle is the part about Adelman. I think he's done an absolutely incredible job getting this team to where it is now and your comment sounds just a tad too much like lambasting for my tastes and sensibilities. I think Adelman has done what he thought needed to be done when he thought it needed to be done. It may not have always ended up being the right thing but I'm still very comfortable with him coaching the games his way.

He's done an incredible job this year. The fact that we still have a chance to win 50 games is remarkable in itself.

However, too many times in the past, Rick has gotten caught up in a short, 7-man rotation, suckered into playing small ball with Steve Nash and Nick van Exel, ignored players who could contribute simply because he's not comfortable putting them into the game, and let teams either take a big lead away or pull away for one of their own. Especially in the playoffs.

I'd like to see him be more liberal with his rotations, if nothing else.

 

[Superman]

Some general comments about the use of statistics;

I agree with most of what you say.

I should explain that I don't think that by just adding our current rebounding numbers to what Brad and Bobby will get will give us a total for rebounds per game. If you looked closely at my post, you will see that the individual rebounds (around 55 altogether) don't equal what I think the team can average (about 45 together).

And you're right: rebounds per game aren't a conclusive indication of who is a good rebounding team and who isn't. But when you look at a team like San Antonio that grinds it out and see that they average more rebounds a game than we do, it's obvious that they are a better rebounding team than we are. When you look at a team like Phoenix, with their starting lineup averaging 35 rebounds a game, it's obvious that they are a better rebounding team than we are (we shoot about the same amount of shots a game as Phoenix does; and if their starting lineup's rebounding numbers aren't enough proof, the fact that they've outrebounded us by 16 in our two meetings this season should help).

My point was basically this: if we can somehow continue to stay strong on the rebounds like we've been for a couple of weeks now, maybe even improve, then we'd be a better team. Especially in the playoffs when the intensity levels increases and the defense tightens. Any success in the playoffs is going to be largely dependent on how well we rebound; it's vital for us to be strong on the boards, especially considering how athletically challenged we are.

 

[Crvena Zvezda]

25/8/4 .... :|

That is like Michael Jordan type numbers. Peja will never, NEVER post those numbers.

I agree with the rest though

 

[Bartking]

If you use rebounding differential to rank the teams, Phoenix is in fact, better than we are. They are 27th and we are 28th.

The top four are Detroit, Seattle (although everybody claims that they are only a jump-shooting team), Miami, Clippers.

Bottom four are Phoenix, Sactown, Warriors, Toronto.

Here are the team rankings for rebounding from nba.com.

 

[Kajun]

I agree with most of what you say.

I should explain that I don't think that by just adding our current rebounding numbers to what Brad and Bobby will get will give us a total for rebounds per game. If you looked closely at my post, you will see that the individual rebounds (around 55 altogether) don't equal what I think the team can average (about 45 together).

I didn't actually add up your numbers; your paragraph there gave me the impression that you were just adding them up, but I must have misunderstood.

Seeing how the pace is much lower in the playoffs (historically), when compared to the regular season, it might be tough to get 45 rebounds; on the other hand, teams are shooting less effectively as well (better defense, more pressure, or whatever reason), which will probably result in more defensive rebounds. Somewhere it might even out.

And you're right: rebounds per game aren't a conclusive indication of who is a good rebounding team and who isn't. But when you look at a team like San Antonio that grinds it out and see that they average more rebounds a game than we do, it's obvious that they are a better rebounding team than we are. When you look at a team like Phoenix, with their starting lineup averaging 35 rebounds a game, it's obvious that they are a better rebounding team than we are (we shoot about the same amount of shots a game as Phoenix does; and if their starting lineup's rebounding numbers aren't enough proof, the fact that they've outrebounded us by 16 in our two meetings this season should help).

Yeah, I thought Phoenix was much better at rebounding as well -- Their front court (Amare/Marion/Q) certainly is no slouch. But look at the stats I gave; Phoenix posts -4% net differentials for their offensive and defense rebounds, whereas the Kings have a -3% differential. Going by that stat, you'd think the Kings were better (or, not as bad, depending on how you look at it). Not really convinced that this is the case, but on the other hand, I'm not sure this is a "Stats don't say it all, paint the wrong picture" type of case either. The statistic in itself is very valuable, and there's a good logic behind it.

UPDATE:
After yesterday, the Kings %s have gone up (only -2% net now).
Off reb: 30%-32%
Def reb: 67%-69%

After having a closer inspection at the stats, it seems the Kings' statistic is heavily influenced by outlier data.

*Since the trades (Feb 24) we are pretty even (which means we were at - before the trade), slightly ahead even:
Oreb%: 31.7 - 31.4
Dreb%: 68.7 - 68.3

*Since Mar 8 (game against Memphis) we are actually at +2.5%!
Oreb%: 33.8 - 31.3
Dreb%: 68.7 - 66.2

It's misleading though. We've had a few of these killer games, which boost our reb stats, e.g.:
Mar 08 MEM 42.6/27.0; 73.0/57.5
Mar 22 POR 34.2/27.5; 72.6/65.8
Apr 01 CLE 39.4/27.8; 72.2/60.6
Apr 03 MIN 44.3/20.0; 80.0/55.7
Apr 10 LAL 54.6/24.0; 76.0/45.5 (!!!)

On the other hand, we have games where we get killed, e.g.:
Mar 15 ORL 21.6/32.6; 67.4/78.4
Mar 26 DEN 22.7/38.4; 61.5/77.3
Mar 30 DET 21.4/29.7; 70.3/78.6

Basically, we kill the worst (rebounding) teams, but get clobbered ourselves by the best teams. Not too surprising; but I don't think it's ever been this extreme (polarized). It's weird. We've had some rebound games which stand so much out, that they affect our reb stat in such a way that they makes us look better than we are (i.e. look better than Phoenix). Of course, the sample is relatively small (17 games since the memphis game), so it should even out with more matches.

My point was basically this: if we can somehow continue to stay strong on the rebounds like we've been for a couple of weeks now, maybe even improve, then we'd be a better team. Especially in the playoffs when the intensity levels increases and the defense tightens. Any success in the playoffs is going to be largely dependent on how well we rebound; it's vital for us to be strong on the boards, especially considering how athletically challenged we are.

No question about it.

 

[KP]

If you use rebounding differential to rank the teams, Phoenix is in fact, better than we are. They are 27th and we are 28th.

The top four are Detroit, Seattle (although everybody claims that they are only a jump-shooting team), Miami, Clippers.

Bottom four are Phoenix, Sactown, Warriors, Toronto.

Here are the team rankings for rebounding from nba.com.

Guys, guys, guys... This^, is how you see how good at rebounding a team is... Reb Differential^. As you can see by Bartkings post, we suck. 82 games is a good site, and can give you some interesting/useful stats, but sometimes their numbers hide more than they reveal. How many more rebounds does one team get than the other, night in and night out? That is a pretty straight foward way to look at it.

 

[Kajun]

Rebound differential is one way to look at it, but you shouldn't forget that this stat is correlated to team and opponent FG%.

So it is more flawed (biased in the statistical sense) than the oReb% and dReb% stats.

While it's a simple way to determine "who's + and who's -", it doesn't rank those within each category (+ and -) effectively, because it doesn't adjust to game pace, and also, FG%.

 

[KP]

Rebound differential is one way to look at it, but you shouldn't forget that this stat is correlated to team and opponent FG%.

So it is more flawed (biased in the statistical sense) than the oReb% and dReb% stats.

While it's a simple way to determine "who's + and who's -", it doesn't rank those within each category (+ and -) effectively, because it doesn't adjust to game pace, and also, FG%.

Over a 82 game season these things seem to even out. If it was from a smaller sample I would maybe agree with you. But the Kings and Suns are two of the worst rebounding teams in the league that much is obvious. Last night's game was an abberation of epic proportions and impacted both stats a lot. But a good rebounding team is going to have a good reb diff over an 82 game season(see, Detroit, Spurs, etc.), we just don't. Wait, are you a math major?

 

[Evenstar]

nice points supes.

i think interior D is going to be a huge key for the kings in the postseason. skinner's done a nice job, but if brad is playing, well he's not much of an interior defensive presence. it'll be intresting to see what happens to skinners PT if brad is back for the playoffs.

 

[Kajun]

Over a 82 game season these things seem to even out. If it was from a smaller sample I would maybe agree with you. But the Kings and Suns are two of the worst rebounding teams in the league that much is obvious. Last night's game was an abberation of epic proportions and impacted both stats a lot. But a good rebounding team is going to have a good reb diff over an 82 game season(see, Detroit, Spurs, etc.), we just don't. Wait, are you a math major?

Things do even out over a 82 game season, yeah. I never meant to imply we are a good rebounding team -- just showed we can do well against the not-so-good teams (we seem to rebound better against those teams, than before), but get our behinds kicked when we play the better ones.

I know a good rebounding team is going to have a good reb diff. That's what I meant with the + and - categories; the teams are correctly placed into each category. But the point is, within those categories, they're not correctly ranked if you use the rebound differential stat, using aforementioned reasons.

And yeah, I'm a math major (statistics specialization). Working on my thesis right now, hopefully have my MSc in Applied Mathematics (Netherlands) by the beginning of 2006. Have been long overdue, this is my 7th year already

 

[Superman]

Things do even out over a 82 game season, yeah. I never meant to imply we are a good rebounding team -- just showed we can do well against the not-so-good teams (we seem to rebound better against those teams, than before), but get our behinds kicked when we play the better ones.

And that's what my point is. We are playing the best teams in the League in the playoffs. We need to be strong on the glass. There's no doubt that we're better now than we were a month ago, and that's a good thing. But we still need to improve over these next five games, and if we do, we'll have a shot at doing some damage in the playoffs. Some real damage.

 

[AleksandarN]

nice points supes.

i think interior D is going to be a huge key for the kings in the postseason. skinner's done a nice job, but if brad is playing, well he's not much of an interior defensive presence. it'll be intresting to see what happens to skinners PT if brad is back for the playoffs.

I think the interior D is directly linked to our perimeter D. I think our key to our defense is linked to limiting perimeter penetration. That is what really kills us defensively. It also causes the break down of our man to man defense and our rebounding position.

 

[AriesMar27]

peja's 6'10... he shouldnt have a problem getting 8 rebounds..... he'd be gone if he were black and doing that.... 4 rebounds a game and you're 6'10..... our starting pf is 6'7 at best....

 

[VF21]

peja's 6'10... he shouldnt have a problem getting 8 rebounds..... he'd be gone if he were black and doing that.... 4 rebounds a game and you're 6'10..... our starting pf is 6'7 at best....

It doesn't matter if he's black, white, green, purple with stripes, or checkered. Nor should it...

Peja is not going to become a rebounding juggernaut. I just want to see him continue to put forth effort as he has these past few games. It's not about numbers cast in concrete. It's focus, energy, effort and consistency that are important now.

 

[KP]

And yeah, I'm a math major (statistics specialization). Working on my thesis right now, hopefully have my MSc in Applied Mathematics (Netherlands) by the beginning of 2006. Have been long overdue, this is my 7th year already

LoL, I knew it! My best friend is going for his PHD in Mathematics right now, He's a frickin Genius(1540 on his SAT's) you sound just like him

! I'll just do myself a favor and back away slowly...

 

[Kajun]

LoL, I knew it! My best friend is going for his PHD in Mathematics right now, He's a frickin Genius(1540 on his SAT's) you sound just like him

! I'll just do myself a favor and back away slowly...

(Sorry for going off-topic)

Please don't say that; I don't think you need a degree in maths to have a good understanding in stats.

There is a bit of a myth on math (and alike) students; that they must be all pretty damn smart. Not to take away from your friend's intellect, because getting a PhD requires a great deal of patience, hard work and talent to make progress on a theoretical level (getting a PhD is not meant for me). Just saying that I'm not necessarily smart

While maths isn't for everybody, and it certainly is not the easiest major around, you don't need to be very smart. Sure, it would help, but I've seen quite a few people who have been 'average' (that sounds awful, doesn't it? Can't put it in other words), and have made it because they were simply interested and motivated enough. Of course, maths does draw alot of exceptionally smart people here and there, to which probably your friend belong, but there are some out there, just like me, who are not

I've been told that you shouldn't be intimidated of titles (all the professors and such, in my case) when discussing stuff, and there's a certain element of truth in that.

 

[vipm]

New "Bench" mob, key to playoffs?

When Phil Jackson was still coaching the Lakers, he had a system where on the 2nd and 3rd quarter, he'd play the second stringers at the beginning of the quarter to give his starters a rest and raise the energy level of the game and thus tire his opponents out (assuming they'll still be playing their starters). I don't know if it's by design or by accident, but Adelman has started employing this method, and quite successfully, in the last few games: at the end of the first quarter and the start of the second quarter, he'd have House, Songaila, Mo Evans, Williamson, and Mobley/Peja (1 starter to provide scoring threat). This has indeed worked as planned: the game level energy has upped and if we were down, we'd erase the deficit, and if we were up, we'd build a bigger lead.

I think this is the key to winning the playoffs: employing this new "bench" (I put it in quotes 'cuz they actually have 1 starter, either Mobley or Peja) mob effectively.

 

[Bricklayer]

Rotations typically get shot in the playoffs, even for Phil (and Riley, and Brown etc.). With plenty of time to rest in between games, and no room for error, most coaches shorten to about 8 guys. And of course Rick has always tended that way. So I would not be holding my breath to see egalitarian minute distribution.

The big and interesting questions are what happens now with Brad and Bobby. Infinite rotation/minute possibilities, and its not clear to me how its going to play out. Best guess is that the rotation would be Brad, Kenny, Peja, Cat, Mike and then Brian as the main big reserve, Bobby as the main guard reserve, and then Corliss as a limited minute 8th man, and maybe Darius getting a few spot minutes. But that's as deep as it seems likely to go. And it could be messy until the new guys are fully worked in (and we have to be careful or we may get eliminated before we are able to establish the rotation).