The 2024 Playoff Chase Thread
- Thread starter Tetsujin
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megapoxy
Starter
All the teams from 3rd place till 11th have either 5-5 or 6-4 record in their last 10 matches. The Kings have the 3rd best active run in the West behind the Nuggets (5 wins in a row) and the Rockets (4 wins in a row). Kings have 2 wins in a row, all the other teams have won just once or lost their last games. Houston has some easy matches in the remaining schedule (playing the Blazers twice, Jazz 3 times) and in case they win vs Cavs their next match they can extend their streak to 9-0 (@WAS, vs CHI, vs UTA, vs POR the next 4 matches) getting closer to our California neighbors that also have an easy schedule though the next 5 matches
Kevin isn't particularly expensive, if he uses those 15-18 minutes well he doesn't need trade value because suddenly he's a valuable piece again. The biggest gripe with Kevin is when he doesn't play starting quality ball, or when he's the worst player in the starting unit. That doesn't make him a bad player, but typically you don't want to trade a starter for a bench player which if anything made us over-value Kevin.
I also think that we over-value Kevin just as an insurance policy for losing Monk. If we re-sign Monk it seems more likely we'd trade Kevin in the aftermath.
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
Despite the Pels being on a really hot streak of late, they're only like a game and a half ahead of the rest of the pack (Suns/Kings/Mavs) and play the Suns twice and us once. 5-8 really could come down to the final day of the season.
Really do hate how IT2 and Boogie Cousins's career's ended up. Just pretty unfortunate for how damn good they were at their peak.
megapoxy
Starter
Phoenix lost and Kings are back in the 6th place of the West.
Remember the Bucks shooting bricks behind the line at G1C? Well in the first half they had 18 made 3 pointers that tied the NBA record for most 3 pointers in a half and ended the match with 24/41.
The Suns shot 58.6% from the field and lost with double digits, 140-129.
Remember the Bucks shooting bricks behind the line at G1C? Well in the first half they had 18 made 3 pointers that tied the NBA record for most 3 pointers in a half and ended the match with 24/41.
The Suns shot 58.6% from the field and lost with double digits, 140-129.
Feels like if I was a betting man I would favor the mavs for the 6th seed. Their schedule is a lot easier than the kings and suns. Dont know how I feel about facing the suns in the play-in. That 24 point comback in the 4th quarter by the suns probably took the kings soul and u dont want to bet against durant and booker in such a critical game.
Stan.Helsing
G-League
Agreed. I think the Kings are going out in the play-in to the Lakers or Warriors. The NBA will make sure of that, i.e., if the Kings are in 7th or 8th. My early season prediction was 1st round playoff exit (2nd round exit at best) but I've revised that downwards now.
The Kings FO needed to have made a big move last summer, or at least at the last trade deadline.
#effHarrisonBarnes
As an aside, I cannot remember when such a middling player on the inside also looked like such a middling player on the outside. Does anyone have a better example of a boring, mediocre player who also looked like he was a boring, mediocre player in terms of his looks? Even his name is boring, Harrison effing Barnes, FFS.
PS: Steve Kerr doesn't count because he was a bench player with a specialized skill-set.
Last edited:
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
Agreed. I think the Kings are going out in the play-in to the Lakers or Warriors. The NBA will make sure of that, i.e., if the Kings are in 7th or 8th. My early season prediction was 1st round playoff exit (2nd round exit at best) but I've revised that downwards now.
The Kings FO needed to have made a big move last summer, or at least at the last trade deadline.
#effHarrisonBarnes
As an aside, I cannot remember when such a middling player on the inside also looked like such a middling player on the outside. Does anyone have a better example of a boring, mediocre player who also looked like he was a boring, mediocre player in terms of his looks? Even his name is boring, Harrison effing Barnes, FFS.
PS: Steve Kerr doesn't count because he was a bench player with a specialized skill-set.
It seems like you don’t watch the kings at all.
The Clippers are nosediving -- they're 6-8 since the All-Star break and have lost 4 of their last 5. We don't seem to be capable of winning more than 2 games in a row and yet we're still gaining ground on that 4 seed. And I really want to see the Kings win the Pacific this season after so many of the talking heads picked us to finish last in the division, effectively calling last season's division win a fluke.
NewArena
All-Star
That was hard to read
NewArena
All-Star
I was not expecting to get the 6th seed even after a loss but i'm not surprised. The Kings are playing better than quite a few teams in the west right now and there's no shame in losing to a team like the Knicks. What they need to focus on, is bringing that same energy into these next 3 games against those below .500 teams. I'm ready for the Kings to turn the corner and string some games together so they can create a cushion for themselves, lessening the blow of a respectable loss like the one we had last night.
These next 3 are where we need to see some serious growth from the Kings. Just showed the last 3 that we can play elite basketball vs quality competition on both sides of the ball. We're significantly better than the next 3 teams; have to go 2-1 at the very least.
NewArena
All-Star
Boy i'd love to see us gain some ground on these teams. Those games against the Mavs are huge
See_Hanks
Bench
IMO the teams are all set. I don't see Houston or Utah in the play-in.. As to what order the teams will be is anyone's guess. We have two games with Dallas in a row and one game with Phoenix left. I do not see the Lakers or Warriors catching the 8th or 7th seed. I see LAC, and NO in the same spot (maybe flipped) in the 4 and 5 spot, and the top 3 teams Denver/Min/OKC. So That leaves Sac, Phx, Dal playing for the 6th/7th/8th seed.
Kings will finish 9-6 or 8-7 to put us at 48-34 or 47-35
Mavs will finish 9-7 or 8-6 to put them at 48-34 or 47-35
Suns will finish 6-8 or 5-9 to put them at 45-37 or 44-38
Lakers will finish 7-6 or 6-7 to put them at 44-38 or 43-37
Warriors will finish 8-7 or 7-8 to put them at 43-37 or 42-38
The only team that could take the 6th seed is Mavs.. The Suns schedule is too rough, as well as Laker, and GSW schedules being brutal as well. We have the easiest schedule of the 5 teams, followed by Dallas. So we will either get #6 or #7. I can't see us hitting 5th and I don't really want to have to play NO or LAC in the first round. We will probably get DEN/MIN/OKC which I am fine with. Against the top 3 teams in the west we are 7-3. Against NO and LAC we are 1-6 (hahaha). If we were in the play-in we are 2-2 against Phoenix, 2-2 against Golden State, 4-0 against the Lakers and 2-0 against Dallas... 10-4 total against those 4 teams. So we know all the teams we would like to avoid in the first round. Let LAC and NO eliminate one or the other at the 4th and 5th position.
If we go against Minnesota or OKC in a 7 game series I think we would win 4-3 or 4-2. Denver would either be 4-3 in favor of the Kings or 3-4 / 2-4 in favor of Denver.
If we had to do a "play-in" game or two I would see us beating Dallas, and possibly being beat by Phoenix, which would move the Kings to the 2nd chance at the 9-10th seed winner. If GSW I think we're eliminated, but the Lakers we would beat and become 8th seed, which would set us up for a scenario in which I wrote about above.
Kings will finish 9-6 or 8-7 to put us at 48-34 or 47-35
Mavs will finish 9-7 or 8-6 to put them at 48-34 or 47-35
Suns will finish 6-8 or 5-9 to put them at 45-37 or 44-38
Lakers will finish 7-6 or 6-7 to put them at 44-38 or 43-37
Warriors will finish 8-7 or 7-8 to put them at 43-37 or 42-38
The only team that could take the 6th seed is Mavs.. The Suns schedule is too rough, as well as Laker, and GSW schedules being brutal as well. We have the easiest schedule of the 5 teams, followed by Dallas. So we will either get #6 or #7. I can't see us hitting 5th and I don't really want to have to play NO or LAC in the first round. We will probably get DEN/MIN/OKC which I am fine with. Against the top 3 teams in the west we are 7-3. Against NO and LAC we are 1-6 (hahaha). If we were in the play-in we are 2-2 against Phoenix, 2-2 against Golden State, 4-0 against the Lakers and 2-0 against Dallas... 10-4 total against those 4 teams. So we know all the teams we would like to avoid in the first round. Let LAC and NO eliminate one or the other at the 4th and 5th position.
If we go against Minnesota or OKC in a 7 game series I think we would win 4-3 or 4-2. Denver would either be 4-3 in favor of the Kings or 3-4 / 2-4 in favor of Denver.
If we had to do a "play-in" game or two I would see us beating Dallas, and possibly being beat by Phoenix, which would move the Kings to the 2nd chance at the 9-10th seed winner. If GSW I think we're eliminated, but the Lakers we would beat and become 8th seed, which would set us up for a scenario in which I wrote about above.
Wait a minute... we have only 3 more losses than the Clippers and we still play them once more meaning we only need to make up 2 games over the remaining 15 and beat them in LA on April 2nd. We're only 2 losses behind the Pelicans and we play them again too but they already have the tie-breaker and, unlike the Clippers, they've actually been playing well lately so they may be tougher to catch and pass.
I can still see us ending up 4th or 5th by the end of the season. I would consider playing to keep the 6th seed a losing mentality. I don't care what the Mavs, Suns, Lakers, or Warriors do -- we just need to take care of our own business and make up ground on NO and LAC until we run out of regular season games.
megapoxy
Starter
The Houston can extend their run to 9 wins in a row with their 4 games upcoming schedule (at WAS, vs CHI, vs UTA, vs POR) and get closer to the 10th place.
Also the Clippers are in decline, we won the last match against them, could win the next one as well and even win the tiebreaker if they will go on like this (despite their big 3 being healthy lately). Unfortunately i don't think that there is a way to have them playing against us in playoffs and they can throw us straight into the Pelicans. Still with a match pending against Pelicans, if we manage to win I don't see why we can't fight them in a 7 game series.
Also the Clippers are in decline, we won the last match against them, could win the next one as well and even win the tiebreaker if they will go on like this (despite their big 3 being healthy lately). Unfortunately i don't think that there is a way to have them playing against us in playoffs and they can throw us straight into the Pelicans. Still with a match pending against Pelicans, if we manage to win I don't see why we can't fight them in a 7 game series.
Bosnian Diehard
Starter
What even helps our chances of catching LAC even more is that we play them at home!
Bosnian Diehard
Starter
I agree with a lot of your assessment, except I would say Dallas has by far the easiest schedule remaining in the Playoff race. I could see them reaching 50 wins potentially.
That’s 6 games against bad teams (SAS, Utah, Charlotte, Detroit, Atlanta), 3 games against OK teams (GSW, Houston) and just one game vs a contender (OKC). Plus two games head to head against us.
Crucial we at least split to get the tiebreaker. If we sweep those two games, I think we get sixth place.
coolhandluke
Starter
Dallas has the easier schedule but they are also inconsistent like the Kings. The two Kings games against Dallas will decide the 6th seed. We don't want to get into the lottery of play-in games.
The Effort Police
Starter
If they flub the Spurs game tomorrow that helps.
And HOU and UTA are tougher outs on the road than you may think.
And HOU and UTA are tougher outs on the road than you may think.
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