Thabeet

[Megalodon]

What do you guys think of him ? Would he be a good addition to the kings ?

With all the talk of trading picks I think Thabeet would be a legit option and has the potential to lock down the Center position for years to come ... but would he reach that potential ?

Basically I'm wondering why the Grizzlies would give up on him one year into his career, when they were obviously high on him last year by using the #2 overall pick on him ?

 

[Anthony1]

Basically I'm wondering why the Grizzlies would give up on him one year into his career, when they were obviously high on him last year by using the #2 overall pick on him ?

The only way they would give up on him that quickly, is if they thought he was a JaMarcus Russell like mistake, and just wanted to swallow their pride and get rid of the guy. The thing is, they have the most intimate knowledge of what kind of player he could be in the NBA, so if that is their opinion of him, then you really have to wonder. Still, there is always that possibility that they could be giving up on him way too early, and in a few years he develops into a nice defensive big.

 

[Megalodon]

I personally think you need to give a player like him more than a year ( or months in this case ) before you seemingly give up on him. So unless there is something totally new that wasn't known around draft time I cant imagine why they would want to trade him away.

 

[Bricklayer]

There is an old thread around here from a few months back where I advocated precisely the idea that if we got stuck picking #5-#10 we should consider swinging that pick to Memphis and taking Thabeet back. Thabeet becomes our "rook", and Memphis then can use the pick however it wants with Gasol already in town. This would be on the theory that Thabeet is both much bigger and was a more accomplished college player than any of the various shotblocker types we could take with the pick instead -- Aldrich, Udoh, Whiteside etc.

But yes, the biggest obstacle to the idea is psychology -- after passing on Tyreke for Thabeet last year on the personal demand of their owner, Memphis now NEEDS Thabeet to pan out to save face. Would a #5 pick this year be enough to do that? If it were I'd still consider it. Its just like last year -- if Geoff sees a potential star at #5, then take that instead. But if we're down to drafting a roleplayer for need purposes and choosing among the defensive center types, I'll cheerfully take the 7'3" 270lb guy over the various 6'11" guys, 7'1" 210lb guys etc. He still has all the things you just can't teach.

 

[Anthony1]

There is an old thread around here from a few months back where I advocated precisely the idea that if we got stuck picking #5-#10 we should consider swinging that pick to Memphis and taking Thabeet back. Thabeet becomes our "rook", and Memphis then can use the pick however it wants with Gasol already in town. This would be on the theory that Thabeet is both much bigger and was a more accomplished college player than any of the various shotblocker types we could take with the pick instead -- Aldrich, Udoh, Whiteside etc.

But yes, the biggest obstacle to the idea is psychology -- after passing on Tyreke for Thabeet last year on the personal demand of their owner, Memphis now NEEDS Thabeet to pan out to save face. Would a #5 pick this year be enough to do that? If it were I'd still consider it. Its just like last year -- if Geoff sees a potential star at #5, then take that instead. But if we're down to drafting a roleplayer for need purposes and choosing among the defensive center types, I'll cheerfully take the 7'3" 270lb guy over the various 6'11" guys, 7'1" 210lb guys etc. He still has all the things you just can't teach.

Are you seriously suggesting that we give the #5 straight up for Thabeet? . No way I do that deal unless we get #12 as well. Right now, the only thing Thabeet has proved, is that he is a possible major bust canidate, and Memphis has to understand that as highly as he was regarded pre-draft last year, they have ruined his overall value by sending him to the D league. I'm not opposed to taking a chance on Thabeet, but it has to include #12 as well.

 

[Megalodon]

For a straight up trade, Thabeet for #5, would be a little ... risky. I tihkn if we could some how get them to include #12 it would be the deal maker.

 

[Nighthawk1]

Are you seriously suggesting that we give the #5 straight up for Thabeet? . No way I do that deal unless we get #12 as well. Right now, the only thing Thabeet has proved, is that he is a possible major bust canidate, and Memphis has to understand that as highly as he was regarded pre-draft last year, they have ruined his overall value by sending him to the D league. I'm not opposed to taking a chance on Thabeet, but it has to include #12 as well.

Thabeet is one of those guys that was never going to do something straight out of college. He's relatively new to the game, has major upside but we don't know if he'll ever reach it. If no one looks worthy at #5 compared to Thabeet then I probably wouldn't mind swinging that pick... Really depends on how combines go!

 

[Anthony1]

Thabeet is one of those guys that was never going to do something straight out of college. He's relatively new to the game, has major upside but we don't know if he'll ever reach it. If no one looks worthy at #5 compared to Thabeet then I probably wouldn't mind swinging that pick... Really depends on how combines go!

If Memphis offered us Thabeet and one of the their late second round picks, plus take a bad contract off us, then I might consider that. But no way I give 5 overall for Thabeet, with no additional compensation. If we had the 10th pick, then I might trade that straight up for Thabeet, but not #5.

 

[Bricklayer]

Are you seriously suggesting that we give the #5 straight up for Thabeet? . No way I do that deal unless we get #12 as well. Right now, the only thing Thabeet has proved, is that he is a possible major bust canidate, and Memphis has to understand that as highly as he was regarded pre-draft last year, they have ruined his overall value by sending him to the D league. I'm not opposed to taking a chance on Thabeet, but it has to include #12 as well.

I'm "seriously suggesting" that Thabeet has at least as much upside and potential to be a factor in this league as do the Aldriches Udohs and Whitesides etc. etc. of the draft. Could one of those guys turn out to be better than Thabeet in the long run? Sure. But I almost guarantee you they won't all be, and there is a decent chance none of them will be.

These were Thabeet's numbers as a starter down the stretch of the season after Gasol got hurt:

13gms 22.1min 5.3pts (.650 .000 .515) 6.2reb 0.5stl 0.4blk 2.0blk

Tearing the league up? No. But a very respectable defensive roleplayer's stats (bump them to per 36 stats and you get 8.6pts 10.1rebs 3.3blks a game). And he's proven, to a certain degree at least, that he can do that in the NBA. Whereas the defensive types in the draft have not. If we drafted an Aldrich or an Udoh or whatever and they put up a statline like that as a first year player you would have to consider it pretty solid and promising for the future. The problem for Thabeet was the presence of two durable minutes eating monsters composing one fo the best frontcourts in the league ahead of him (not to mention a coach who did not want him drafted and did not like him from the start). Put him on Minnesota or whoever, let him get those minutes and put up the statline above, and that's exactly what you want to see out of a young defensive frontcourt player.

My rules haven't changed from last year. If there is a star there, take him. If there is not, or not anybody that you can count on, we have a critical need for defense up front -- without it we'll never be more than mediocre no matter how good Reke becomes. So if there is no star, you should go for the defensive big. And if you are going for the defensive big with that #5 Thabeet is at least as promising as the options likely to be remaining in the draft at that point. It often takes those guys a while to come online and be a factor.

Compare:

Yr 1s:
Chandler 19.6min 6.1pts (.497 .000 .604) 4.8reb 0.8ast 0.4stl 1.3blk
Dampier 14.6min 5.1pts (.390 1.000 .637) 4.1reb 0.6ast 0.3stl 1.0blk
Dalembert -- 5.2min 1.5pts (.440 .000 .389) 2.0reb 0.1ast 0.2stl 0.4blk
Biedrins -- 12.8min 3.6pts (.577 .000 .475) 3.9reb 0.4ast 0.4stl 0.8blk
Pryzbilla -- 8.1min 0.8pts (.343 .000 .273) 2.2reb 0.1ast 0.1stl 0.9blk
Hibbert -- 14.4min 7.1pts (.471 .000 .667) 3.5reb 0.7ast 0.3stl 1.1blk
Perkins -- 3.5min 2.2pts (.533 .000 .667) 1.4reb 0.3ast 0.0stl 0.2blk

 

[Anthony1]

I'm "seriously suggesting" that Thabeet has at least as much upside and potential to be a factor in this league as do the Aldriches Udohs and Whitesides etc. etc. of the draft. Could one of those guys turn out to be better than Thabeet in the long run? Sure. But I almost guarantee you they won't all be, and there is a decent chance none of them will be.

Well, again, if I have the 10th pick, and I'm offered Thabeet straight up, then I would definitely consider that, but with the 5th pick, no. Cousins or no Cousins. I'd rather take my chances with drafting Wesley Johnson and moving either Garcia or Green.

At 5, Memphis has to offer me something more.

 

[Gtronic]

...bump them to per 36 stats and you get 8.6pts 10.1rebs 3.3blks a game.

EXACTLY what this team needs. Get it done GP!

 

[Megalodon]

Would I do it straight up ? Maybe ... It all depends on the the combine plays out and then the draft plays out, you never know Memphis may fall in love with someone at 5 and give us more, or we not like anyone at all and decide that it is worth the chance.

But on a different note, does anybody know his potential / best case scenario comparison ?

 

[Section 101]

(bump them to per 36 stats and you get 8.6pts 10.1rebs 3.3blks a game).

Your leaving out a major stat. 2.4 fouls/ 13 mins. This means he fouls out well before reaching 30 mins. He would be lucky to get 24 mins/game and would lead the league in fouling out.

 

[Bricklayer]

Your leaving out a major stat. 2.4 fouls/ 13 mins. This means he fouls out well before reaching 30 mins. He would be lucky to get 24 mins/game and would lead the league in fouling out.

Well first I was not actually saying we needed to play him 36min a night next season -- under this scenario he's basically our draft pick so Jason and Spencer could both be here, if we wanted them to be. But just as importantly, again that sort of foul activity is typical of that class of players in their early career. Nor is that entirely a bad thing -- racking up fouls trying to protect the hoop is doing it for the right reason.

My list of other defenseive bigs, with fouls per 36 in their rookie years:

Chandler -- 4.6/36
Dampier -- 5.2/36
Dalembert --6.1/36
Biedrins -- 8.2/36
Pryzbilla -- 7.6/36
Hibbert -- 7.7/36
Perkins -- 6.2/36

Thabeet -- 6.7/36

 

[Nighthawk1]

I think a lot of it has to do with ignorance to how to play NBA game in their rookie years. I don't put too much stock into rookie year foul trouble.

 

[bajaden]

I'm sure most know that I wasn't a big fan of Thabeet's coming out of college. But that was in reference to where we were picking. I didn't think he was worth the first pick in the draft (thats when we still had the first pick. pre-lottery), and I wasn't thrilled about taking him with the fourth pick either.

However, I do think he's going to be a good player someday. Remember that he hadn't ever touched a basketball five years prior to entering the draft. So in one respect he's still an infant in the basketball IQ dept. When you add in that he's a big man, and they normally take longer anyway, its like a double whammy for him. I don't know if I would give up the 5th pick in the draft just yet. There's always the possibility of someone sliding out of the top four. And don't say it can't happen because almost every year, someone slides. Not always out of the top few, but always someone that surprises everyone.

I'll leave this one in the hands of the FO. To be truthful I doubt the ownership is willing to admit their mistake. Its common knowledge that the only person that wanted to draft Thabeet was the owner. And he over ruled everyone else. To give up this early would be an addmission of his mistake. Don't get me wrong. Its wasn't a mistake to draft Thabeet. It was a mistake to take him that high..

 

[Megalodon]

Hey Baja, What do you feel his ceiling is ? what do you expect from him ? I typically enjoy your posts so I would like to read what you think of him

 

[Telemachus]

Hey Baja, What do you feel his ceiling is ? what do you expect from him ? I typically enjoy your posts so I would like to read what you think of him

I have never been very high on Thabeet. I thought they were able to hide a lot of his weaknesses in college defensively, and we could all see he had a long way to go on offense. Personally, I think his best case is to become a solid backup center who plays 15-20 minutes a game. And I'm not sure he will ever reach that.

 

[Tetsujin]

Well, again, if I have the 10th pick, and I'm offered Thabeet straight up, then I would definitely consider that, but with the 5th pick, no. Cousins or no Cousins. I'd rather take my chances with drafting Wesley Johnson and moving either Garcia or Green.

At 5, Memphis has to offer me something more.

You're seriously undervaluing a second-year 7'3" raw prospect who was picked 2nd last year. Th organization wants to save face. There is no freaking way that they cough up the 12th along with Thabeet for our 5 pick.

 

[Gary]

Meh.. Always have said Thabeet will be a bust and I am not off that bandwagon yet.. If he proves me wrong I'll be first to admit though!!! Thabeet a King though? No thanks.

 

[bajaden]

Hey Baja, What do you feel his ceiling is ? what do you expect from him ? I typically enjoy your posts so I would like to read what you think of him

This is a hard one because he comes with some tools that are hard to find. There just aren't that many 7'3" guys with his shotblocking instincts. And when you do find one thats close, he usually weighs 210 pounds, which makes him a liability in other areas.

As Telemachus said, a lot of what he wasn't able to do was hidden at UCONN. He was surrounded by very good athletic players, and all he had to do on offense was not get in the way, rebound, and get his putbacks. On defense he basicly played goalie. And he was dammed good at it. But overall he had a lot of glaring flaws.

But whats his ceiling? If he works hard and continues to learn the game. Both by instruction and by osmosis. I think he can become a defensive presence in the game. I don't know if he'll ever be a good offensive player, but if he can just do the help things like setting picks and crashing the offensive boards, he'll get 10 points a game just by accident. I guess what I'm describing here is Mutombo. I think if he busts his butt he can become that kind of presence. And what team wouldn't want a Mutombo on it.

Look, there's a giant grey area here. Some people figure things out and some don't. And then some figure things out, but it takes them longer than others. My red flag with Thabeet was the small amount of progress he made from his freshman year to this junior year. Yes, he did improve. And the improvement from his sophmore year to his junior year was greater than the year before. But by normal standards it was behind the curve. But then you have to consider that he had only been playing basketball for five years. Now thats an explanation, but not an outcome.

So to answer your question honestly, I'm not completely sure what his ceiling is. If I was talking about a player that had played basketball from grade school on, I would say forget him. But thats not the case. This is a guy that didn't know what a basketball was five years before entering the draft. So I'm going to cut him some slack. I think he can be a valuable player in the league. Its going to take a while. He has a lot to learn. But if a team is patient with him, it could be worth it. And by the way, patience is not something that runs rampant on this fourm.

 

[KingsCitizen]

I'd rather sign Mbenga or Haywood as FA. Rather than add some more scared kids in our frontline.

 

[Prince_XY]

This is a hard one because he comes with some tools that are hard to find. There just aren't that many 7'3" guys with his shotblocking instincts. And when you do find one thats close, he usually weighs 210 pounds, which makes him a liability in other areas.

As Telemachus said, a lot of what he wasn't able to do was hidden at UCONN. He was surrounded by very good athletic players, and all he had to do on offense was not get in the way, rebound, and get his putbacks. On defense he basicly played goalie. And he was dammed good at it. But overall he had a lot of glaring flaws.

But whats his ceiling? If he works hard and continues to learn the game. Both by instruction and by osmosis. I think he can become a defensive presence in the game. I don't know if he'll ever be a good offensive player, but if he can just do the help things like setting picks and crashing the offensive boards, he'll get 10 points a game just by accident. I guess what I'm describing here is Mutombo. I think if he busts his butt he can become that kind of presence. And what team wouldn't want a Mutombo on it.

Look, there's a giant grey area here. Some people figure things out and some don't. And then some figure things out, but it takes them longer than others. My red flag with Thabeet was the small amount of progress he made from his freshman year to this junior year. Yes, he did improve. And the improvement from his sophmore year to his junior year was greater than the year before. But by normal standards it was behind the curve. But then you have to consider that he had only been playing basketball for five years. Now thats an explanation, but not an outcome.

So to answer your question honestly, I'm not completely sure what his ceiling is. If I was talking about a player that had played basketball from grade school on, I would say forget him. But thats not the case. This is a guy that didn't know what a basketball was five years before entering the draft. So I'm going to cut him some slack. I think he can be a valuable player in the league. Its going to take a while. He has a lot to learn. But if a team is patient with him, it could be worth it. And by the way, patience is not something that runs rampant on this fourm.

When it comes to assessing players' progress you are one of those I feel I can trust because of your objectivity.

Now I have a question. How would you rate the current Thabeet now compared to the available BIGs in this draft? Of course not including Cousins and Favors who may not be there at pick #5.

Would there be other BIGs in this draft who you will prefer much-much more than the current Thabeet now?

 

[Prince_XY]

I'd rather sign Mbenga or Haywood as FA. Rather than add some more scared kids in our frontline.

By that you don't mean Hawes is a scared kid, do you?

 

[KingsCitizen]

By that you don't mean Hawes is a scared kid, do you?

. Until they get respect. They will always be like a bunch of scared kids.

 

[Bricklayer]

I'd rather sign Mbenga or Haywood as FA. Rather than add some more scared kids in our frontline.

Mbenga? That's ridiculous.

And Haywood is both old, likely to be expensive, and not an impact player.

 

[Megalodon]

Thanks for the reply to my question Baja.

IDK I think he could be a good center in this league, and I haven't heard anything about him being lazy so if that isn't the case and he is trying to get better ... I cant think of a reason he wont succeed.

 

[ovrush]

If the top four guys are gone I would trade the #5 for Thabeet and I think the Grizz would as well. Johnson makes more sense for them with their frontcourt depth and the intrigue with Gay. Thabeet makes more sense for us with our depth at the 3, and he has a far far higher ceiling than the potential bigs left at 5

Aldrich - questionable nba athletecism, even if he pans out he'll just be a marginal starter
Udoh - Im a big fan but he's probably more of a four and certainly doesn't have the potential impact that Thabeet could
Monroe - Don't see how another soft unathletic jump shooting high basketball IQ big helps us


I think it's a winner for both teams, and I like it from a fit and cost/risk perspective much more than the Jefferson trades.

 

[Megalodon]

If the top four guys are gone I would trade the #5 for Thabeet and I think the Grizz would as well. Johnson makes more sense for them with their frontcourt depth and the intrigue with Gay. Thabeet makes more sense for us with our depth at the 3, and he has a far far higher ceiling than the potential bigs left at 5

Aldrich - questionable nba athletecism, even if he pans out he'll just be a marginal starter
Udoh - Im a big fan but he's probably more of a four and certainly doesn't have the potential impact that Thabeet could
Monroe - Don't see how another soft unathletic jump shooting high basketball IQ big helps us


I think it's a winner for both teams, and I like it from a fit and cost/risk perspective much more than the Jefferson trades.

How many minutes would you feel he can play right of the bat ? how would you have the starters laid out ?

Evans, Udrih
Garcia, ?
Greene, Casspi
Thompson, Landry
Thabeet, Hawes

???

 

[ovrush]

How many minutes would you feel he can play right of the bat ? how would you have the starters laid out ?

Evans, Udrih
Garcia, ?
Greene, Casspi
Thompson, Landry
Thabeet, Hawes

???

With the four bigs you have, and the flexibility of Hawes and Thompson both being capable of playing minutes at the five it gives Thabeet some room for error since he had foul issues last year. I think his minutes would wind up being limited by fouls as he learned which is fine. I would start Thabeet and Landry most likely and Thabeet could help mitigate some of the problems of Landry being a smidge undersized and not a great rebounder.

It creates lots of interesting options with lineups, however.
People rave about the Lakers length, but what about a lineup of

Evans
Greene
Omri
Hawes
Thabeet

wouldn't start it, and it's gimmicky but it sure would make for an interesting change of pace lineup for a few minutes every game.


*** ehh thought about it, Hawes still might make more sense starting in the short term, it just depends how Thabeet played in summer league/preseason and how he blended in. its too early to talk about who starts in that situation better to just say Thabeet would have his minutes decided by fouls most likely.