kupman
Starter
Not true IMHO. In fact, most teams are somewhere in the middle.
Stuck in the middle? (split from Bobcats game thread)
- Thread starter kupman
- Start date
Not true IMHO. In fact, most teams are somewhere in the middle.
piksi
Hall of Famer
Can You please list those teams because I see hardly any that are in the middle. Just by looking in the standings - it is pretty much us playing for nothing really. All the other teams either have a chance op POs or they ate "tanking"
Well, on second thought - You can add Knicks to it - sort of
Not any that matter. There are, at most, 19 that we need to worry about.
Here are the top 10 teams in the West.
Hornets: 32-12 (.727)
Suns: 33-13 (.717)
Mavs: 31-13 (.705)
Lakers: 28-15 (.651)
Spurs: 28-16 (.636)
Jazz: 27-18 (.600)
Nuggets: 26-18 (.591) Projected record: 49-33, we lose ties.
Blazers: 26-18 (.591) Projected record: 49-33, we lose ties.
Warriors: 27-19 (.587) Projected record: 48-34, we lose ties.
Houston: 25-20 (.556) Projected record: 46-36, we lose ties.
Here are the bottom 8 teams in the NBA.
Bucks: 18-28 (.391) Projected record: 32-50.
Sixers: 17-28 (.378) Projected record: 31-51.
Knicks: 14-30 (.318) Projected record: 26-56.
Clippers: 13-28 (.317) Projected record: 26-56.
Bobcats: 13-32 (.289)
Sonics: 10-35 (.222)
Heat: 9-34 (.209)
Timberwolves: 8-36 (.182)
Here's us:
Kings: 19-24 (.442)
To get into the 8th playoff slot, we need 50-32. That means going 31-10 (.756) from here on out.
To get the #5 draft pick, we need 25-57. That means going 6-35 (.146) to end the season.
There are no guarantees that the above teams will maintain the records they've had so far, but either a top 5 pick or a playoff spot requires not just that our record change dramatically, but that the records of 3 very specific teams also change dramatically in the opposite direction. That is simply NOT going to happen.
So we might as well try to enjoy what's left of the season, and hope that the younger players get a lot of development time.
kupman
Starter
below are the teams in the middle. The middle being defined as being a conservative 1 standard deviation within the mean of 41 wins. As you can see, we have a lot of company. None of these teams has a really high chance of winning it all (I guess SA always has a chance) and none of these teams has a really high chance of getting a top 5 pick.
Orlando 28 18 .609
Utah 27 18 .600
Washington 24 19 .558
LA Lakers 28 15 .651
Cleveland 24 19 .558
San Antonio 28 16 .636
Toronto 24 20 .545
Portland 26 18 .591
Atlanta 18 23 .439
Denver 26 18 .591
New Jersey 19 26 .422
Golden State 27 19 .587
Indiana 19 27 .413
Houston 25 20 .556
Chicago 18 26 .409
Sacramento 19 24 .442
Charlotte 18 27 .400
Milwaukee 18 28 .391
Orlando 28 18 .609
Utah 27 18 .600
Washington 24 19 .558
LA Lakers 28 15 .651
Cleveland 24 19 .558
San Antonio 28 16 .636
Toronto 24 20 .545
Portland 26 18 .591
Atlanta 18 23 .439
Denver 26 18 .591
New Jersey 19 26 .422
Golden State 27 19 .587
Indiana 19 27 .413
Houston 25 20 .556
Chicago 18 26 .409
Sacramento 19 24 .442
Charlotte 18 27 .400
Milwaukee 18 28 .391
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piksi
Hall of Famer
every single team in this group either will make playoffs or has a legit realistic chance to do so. Some of them won't make it but as of now their chances are there. Putting Spurs on this list is funny
Jerryaki
Starter
looking at that list, the only middling teams are NJ, IND, SAC, and MIL. these are the teams that aren't on an upswing.
piksi
Hall of Famer
while Bucks, Nets and Pacers still very much make playoffs
(Last time I checked, the mean was 41 wins.)
I think you missed my point. There are several teams in the middle with us, yes. They are all EC teams, and they are going to eat their cake and have it too, because they can make it into the playoffs with losing records. Whether or not SA has a "really high chance of winning it all" is of no concern to our franchise. What matters to us is that SA is getting a playoff spot, and we aren't.
We are within spitting distance of New Jersey, and not far from a few other EC teams. But even if we lose more games than them, we won't improve our lottery position at all, because they're still not quite bad enough to be excluded from the Leastern Conference playoffs. Nor will it matter if we win more games than all of them. The only reason it matters to us that those teams even exist is that they leave the dregs of the EC ahead of us for draft position.
#11 in the West (+ or - 1), here we come!
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tradepeja
Starter
MIL will not make it. NJ and IND will squeak by with the pity 7th and 8th seeds and be crushed by the Celts and Pistons.
They get similar draft picks as us and they get 2 more home games both in which they'll be blown out. I don't envy them.
piksi
Hall of Famer
I didn't say that they will make it. I said that they have realistic chance to try
kupman
Starter
Just because a team makes that playoffs does not mean they are above the "middle." The 8th, 7th, 6th seeds are clearly in the middle and the 5th and 4th seeds could also be in the middle in any given year.
I will admit that it always seems that SA could win it all. However considering them in the middle is not crazy talk. They are currently a 6th seed and just lost thier PG for awhile. Furthermore, that team is old. They are loaded with players 30+ years of age. They also win quite a few games each year so their draft position is typically 15-20+. That team has some challenges in the not too distant future.
Jerryaki
Starter
but shouldn't middle mean where a team is in their lifecycle (i.e. upswing or downswing or stagnant)?
kupman
Starter
Personally, I would say that is a different issue.
First, it is difficult to say who is really on an up swing or a down swing, unless you compare the teams' records to recent years. But even then, a team with the highest winning percentage 1 year ago may only have the 3rd best winning percentage now. That could be considered a down swing, yet still in the "above average" range - Dallas for example.
Is a team that wins 18 games last year and is on pace to win 22 this year on an upswing? Either way, they are still below average. I keep hearing how the Bulls and Bobcats are on an upswing, yet they are still average teams. Maybe they will be winning 55+ games in the next 1-4 years, but that is really just conjecture at this point.
Jerryaki
Starter
a crude system can help determine if a team is in fact on the up or down swing of their lifecycle. probably by quantifying things like talent level (both vets and younger prospects), financial situation (expriring contracts, long term contracts, cap space), and potential for a high lottery pick. i know that's a very basic set of parameters. but given that, you can see where the bulls (good amount of young talent, don't know about their cap situation), and the bobcats (good young and old talent, tons of cap space) are on more of an upswing. at least from my perspective.
the kings are not exactly on a downswing, but not on an upswing either. anyway, i was just confused because your initial stance of "teams 1 std dev away from the mean" didn't really mean much in my head; most of the teams would fall in that range of the curve. but using that to imply that most teams are in the kings' situation...
kupman
Starter
I see the point that you are making. Iwas responding the statement that the Kings are nearly alone in the middle. I say no - most teams are in the middle or average. It's really just a trusim.
The upswing and downswing idea probably could be quantified, but it also can change on a dime...see the Celtics (good turn with trades) and Clippers (bad turn with injuries).
The upswing and downswing idea probably could be quantified, but it also can change on a dime...see the Celtics (good turn with trades) and Clippers (bad turn with injuries).
Kingster
Hall of Famer
Dime Dropper
All-Star
No, it is not a different issue. Whether the team in question is a young one on the rise, even if that means being in the middle for a couple years, is a completely different situation to us. We're an old team seemingly not making any effort to get younger. Or do anything for that matter. You cannot dismiss what situation (or swing) a team is going through. That's just being blind to the bigger picture. So, clearly, it is relevant.
How can you not see that the Bulls and 'Cats are on an upswing? Regardless of record, they are both young talented teams that will be very good in a few years. They are improving. Right now, we don't know what we'll be like in a few years. If we stand pat like we're doing right now, we will be in the higher end of the lottery (good thing for a team like us) simply because we won't be able to win as many games as we are now. What we're doing right now is complete suckitude, and I don't mean record-wise, I mean for the good of the future of the franchise.
Glenn
Hall of Famer
We are an old team only in the eyes of the young, grasshopper. 
If we get rid of Bibby, Brad, and Mikki, the only older players we actually use, we are suddenly a very young team. Otherwise we use Cisco, Martin, Hawes, Dahntay, and Beno who are young and Salmons and Artest who are middle aged.
If we get rid of Bibby, Brad, and Mikki, the only older players we actually use, we are suddenly a very young team. Otherwise we use Cisco, Martin, Hawes, Dahntay, and Beno who are young and Salmons and Artest who are middle aged.Similar threads
