Ok, here are some stats to see where the Kings might end up.
Starting with the top 4 seeds, I assumed best case scenario possible, the Kings win 70-80 percent of their games while the top 4 win 50/50. Obviously neither event is very likely but it shows our best possible shot.
If Kings win 70-80% they win between 51-53 games total.
This puts Spurs and Suns out of reach. Worst case for them (50/50) still gives them 58-59 wins.
Sonics would win 52 games, but they have the tiebreaker so we'd have to get the full 53 wins to catch them. Very unlikely.
Dallas is theoretically catchable, their 50/50 scenario would be 50 wins, so even with the 51 wins for Kings we COULD catch Dallas.
But since these are best case scenarios and since the schedule and injuries don't look good for Kings, I'd have to say top 4 seeds are probably out of reach.
For the bottom 4 seeds (including the 3 teams racing for #8 spot) I reversed it. Assumed Kings only go 50/50 while those chasing us had a run into the post season.
Worst case Kings is 48 wins.
Houston could easily meet this (they have tiebreaker due to better conference record). Right now all they need to do is keep pace with the Kings.
So #5 seed is in serious trouble right now.
Right now #6 seed is Kings.
Right behind us is Memphis. If they go on a run then they could catch us but we do have the tiebreaker. #6 spot (our current position) is pretty safe but if we slide and Memphis runs they could catch us.
I don't think we could slip further than that.
Denver is currently in #8 seed and even if we slump and they surge we'd end up tied at 48 wins and we have tiebreaker.
Behind Denver are Lakers and Wolves, but they couldn't do much better than 46 wins.
So it looks like Kings are in the 5-7 seed range. Probably #6 but we could slide either way.
So they will hit the playoffs.
Starting with the top 4 seeds, I assumed best case scenario possible, the Kings win 70-80 percent of their games while the top 4 win 50/50. Obviously neither event is very likely but it shows our best possible shot.
If Kings win 70-80% they win between 51-53 games total.
This puts Spurs and Suns out of reach. Worst case for them (50/50) still gives them 58-59 wins.
Sonics would win 52 games, but they have the tiebreaker so we'd have to get the full 53 wins to catch them. Very unlikely.
Dallas is theoretically catchable, their 50/50 scenario would be 50 wins, so even with the 51 wins for Kings we COULD catch Dallas.
But since these are best case scenarios and since the schedule and injuries don't look good for Kings, I'd have to say top 4 seeds are probably out of reach.
For the bottom 4 seeds (including the 3 teams racing for #8 spot) I reversed it. Assumed Kings only go 50/50 while those chasing us had a run into the post season.
Worst case Kings is 48 wins.
Houston could easily meet this (they have tiebreaker due to better conference record). Right now all they need to do is keep pace with the Kings.
So #5 seed is in serious trouble right now.
Right now #6 seed is Kings.
Right behind us is Memphis. If they go on a run then they could catch us but we do have the tiebreaker. #6 spot (our current position) is pretty safe but if we slide and Memphis runs they could catch us.
I don't think we could slip further than that.
Denver is currently in #8 seed and even if we slump and they surge we'd end up tied at 48 wins and we have tiebreaker.
Behind Denver are Lakers and Wolves, but they couldn't do much better than 46 wins.
So it looks like Kings are in the 5-7 seed range. Probably #6 but we could slide either way.
So they will hit the playoffs.
