Statistics and the art of getting the #1 pick (split from Rubio thread)
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Aenadin
Starter
wre playing the young ones right now... hawes is out there finally getting starter minutes legit so hes going to get his feet wet late in the season
if we dont get the top pick who says we cant trade up? right?
PFFFT!!
Starter
Even if we tanked the season and was last, I strongly believe were not getting #1. I think #3 is more realistic. Remeber Yao Ming and Houston or recently Portland and Oden. I would love to see what the ratio of lastplace team : pick is in the last 20 years. I think Cleveland was last place and got James. Anyone have that ratio?
Vlade4GM
All-Star
It doesn't matter what happened in past drafts, it's all probability and the worst record has the best chance at the no.1 pick.
Kings Faithful
Starter
Yeah if your the Knicks/Spurs... we are the Kings remember? Probability has it we will probably get the #10 pick...
Vlade4GM
All-Star
Actually it's impossible for the worst record team to fall below 4th, but that aside I guess you're implying that the lottery is rigged? Well, they conduct the lottery in front of representatives of all the lottery teams. I'm sure if something was fishy it would've been spotted by now.
vikinginferno
Starter
If you look at the stats, we have more chance of getting 4th pick than 1st. 
ElRey
Starter
If you look at the stats, we have more chance of getting 4th pick than 1st.
What stats are you talking about?
KingGiant49erFan
G-League
why would the nba have any reason to rig the lottery for the San Antonio Spurs?
KingGiant49erFan
G-League
He's talking about statistics. Statistically speaking, the team with the worst record in the league has a 25 percent chance of getting the first pick and about a 36 percent of getting the fourth.. (and a 64 percent chance of getting a top 3 pick)
vikinginferno
Starter
Yeah, stats=statistics. Here's something on wikipedia about it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery
Kings Faithful
Starter
Nothing. I'm just making a bunch of false accusations right now because I need someone to blame for our bad luck. It helps believing that someone is making us suck rather we just sucking for the hell of it whether its true or not...
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
I've mentioend before that the big key this year to having the worst record, or mayeb at worst the second worst record, is that it makes it impossible (by lottery rules) for you to fall further than 4th (if you were the worst) or 5th (of you were second worst). In a draft this shaky, that means you are about the only teams guaranteed to get one of the guys we've all discussed -- whether it be Griffin, or Rubio, or Thabeet or Teague. If you do the big stupid and climb to 5th worst for instance, you could end up as far out as 8th, which in this draft is just out in the boonies flailing around for anybody useful.
We've come this far -- only 28 games to go. After all this grief there is no point whatsoever at jeopardizing the one and only reward you get for being awful. If there is going to be any major turnaround, a successful high draft pick this summer has to be a major part of it.
We've come this far -- only 28 games to go. After all this grief there is no point whatsoever at jeopardizing the one and only reward you get for being awful. If there is going to be any major turnaround, a successful high draft pick this summer has to be a major part of it.
Yeppers. If I, the ultimate Pollyana homer, can finally see the light about this, I cannot imagine how it could escape anyone else...
We can have close games, we can have entertaining games, but we absolutely CAN NOT have more than a couple of more wins.
Winning on March 31 would be nice, and I'm always for kicking the crap out of the Lakers, but we do not want to waste all the suckatude of this season for some meaningless wins in March or April that will destroy what we endured in November through February.
Luckily for us, I really don't think it's going to be that difficult. We're a better looking team, but we've still got major problems... and our D is still seen only on milk cartons.
rhythmless
Starter
If you look at the stats, we have more chance of getting 4th pick than 1st.
It sounds as if you are dealing with statistics here in absolutes, while these stats are not complete unless they exist within the entire realm of statistical probabilities for the entire league.
That is to say, yes, we have more of a chance to pick 4th, but the percent chance at landing 1st is best when we HAVE the worst record. Statistically, the BEST probabilities you have of the highest pick are 1st. I dont understand all the hoohah with this crap. There is absolutely no reason picking 2nd and on is better than 1st, so why bother with it?
And as for throwing out the Bulls, Blazers, et al reasons to NOT secure the 1st pick, you always go with the largest probability of your preferred outcome given the chance. These events are independent and identically distributed.
For expected value, if i flipped a coin 100 times with 100% heads, my expected value (outcome) is still 50/50 heads/tails. Period. In fact, you could go ahead and say that for the entire statistical outcome of life, there is MORE of a probability that tails will come because the chances of 101 straight heads are astronomical (.5^101 actually). If anything, the number 1 team is BOUND to get a number 1 pick sooner or later. While within one game of the number 1 pick getting 1st is 25%, it is the largest percentage to get the 1st. So if you place your bets, you ALWAYS bet on the worst team getting the best pick, regardless of what happens.
HighTopKicks
Bench
I think your misinterpertating the percentages. The percentages state that the worst team has a 25% chance of getting the 1st pick. The second worst has a 19.9% chance at the 1st pick. The third worst has a 15.6% chance at the 1st pick, and so on. You cant add the percentages to calculate the worst teams chances of getting a lessor pick. Since the worst team has 25% of the total ball in the lottery, they have 25% chance of getting the #1, but if they don't get the 1st pick then there is one less ball in the barrel and they still have 250 of the remaining 999 which is 25.025%. If they don't get the 2nd either, then there are 998 balls of which they have 250 so the chance they get the 3rd pick is 25.05%. And finally, under the rules of the draft if they don't get one of the 1st 3 picks, there is a 100% chance they get the fourth pick.
No, he had it right. The team with the most combos (25%) does not have a 25.025% chance of getting the #2 pick for two reasons: One is because 25% of the time they already won the lottery. The other is that most often, the team that gets the #1 pick has more than one combo, and all of those combos are removed from contention. So what you have to do is change your denominator from 999 to the average number of balls left (less than 999), then multiply your overall result by .75 to reflect the fact that 25% of the time you're out of contention for the #2 pick because you got #1. Then the numbers come out right.
For the worst team, the odds are 25% #1, 21.5% #2, 17.8% #3, and 35.7% #4.
vikinginferno
Starter
Yep, that's right. Now I still don't understand why SO MANY people talk as if there is a 99% chance of us getting pick#1. We really should be thinking about the other options such as 3,4, and maybe even 5 or 6th pick based on where we end up.
kingsfan101
Starter
While I agree with all of this, I am scared that we are not good at tanking. Sure, we have the worst record, but as you only pointed out earlier, that's just because we suck.
In the coming days, I fear that the Wizards, Grizzlies, Clippers, Wolves etc. shall sit down key players with sudden, mysterious injuries, while Kenny shall run the vets to the ground in hopes of getting a new contract, ruining the rest of the season too.
Like others have said finishing with the worst record guarantees us as no worse than 4th. That means at the worst out of the 4 players generating the most discussion here, one will be available. That's important. Since the worst team only wins the lotto 25% of the time its easy to recall all the times they don't win the lotto. But if you think because 5 or 6 has one a disproportionate # of times we'd be better off there you've got another thing coming because its equally likely we'd move down a spot or two than move up a few spots in that scenario.
Which means we'd probably have a 50-50 shot at Rubio or Teague if both are in and I think most people would be happy with that.If we get the worse record, I'll just settle for and assume we getting the 4th pick. 'Cause we all know how outrageously LUCKY the Sacramento Kings are!
kingsnation
All-Star
If Rubio does in fact enter the draft, then as much as I would love to have Thabeet at 1 or 2... I would see nothing wrong with falling to 4th and grabbing one of the pgs.
Now if Rubio doesn't enter and we fall to 4th... who would it be then? That would suck, IMO.
I don't know but we could start projecting top 3 picks for 2010.
...which may very well be the case if we wind up with either PG.
HighTopKicks
Bench
If we end up with the worst record but lose in the lottory, do we still get the 1st pick in the 2nd round?
Yes, the second round goes in reverse order of standings without regard to the lottery results.
SkinnerBox
Bench
It's impossible to figure the odds of getting the second pick if you don't get the first pick, because it depends on who gets first. If the second worst record got the first pick, their 199 balls would be removed, meaning that you then have a higher chance of winning the second pick than if, say the 14th team won and only 5 balls were taken out. If the second and third teams both get picks 1 and 2, we would then have a 38% chance of getting the third. If 13th and 14th got 1 and 2, we'd have a 25.3% chance.
Of course, it's revealed in reverse order, so you can't do the math on the fly anyway.
Of course, it's revealed in reverse order, so you can't do the math on the fly anyway.
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