Stars and busts

#1
Here are the "consensus" top 8 picks in the 2018 NBA draft:

  1. DeAndre Ayton
  2. Luka Doncic
  3. Marvin Bagley III
  4. Mo Bamba
  5. Jaren Jackson Jr
  6. Michael Porter Jr
  7. Trae Young
  8. Wendell Carter Jr
This isn't my order or my top 8, it's a composite of several mock drafts. So while I'd have Miles Bridges in this list, the consensus doesn't have him. But I digress.

Statistically, even a perceived strong draft like this one, two of these guys will very likely be busts. Two more won't be busts but will be disappointments. Two will be solid to good starters and two will be all-star to superstar level players. Could none of them bust? Sure. Could four of them be all-stars? Sure. But that's not the game we're playing. Then again, if you really want to change the number of guys you put in the different categories I'm not going to stop you.

Slot the 8 players into those four categories and we can track during the season (and even the years to follow) to see who tabbed guys correctly.

All-star to super star players:

Solid to good starters:

Disappointments:

Busts:
 

dude12

Hall of Famer
#6
I'm more inclined to list Bamba and JJJ as disappointments if I had to choose 2. Don't think they will be busts. Don't think any will be busts. Truth be told, I think most of these guys will be solid pros and I think Ayton and Doncic have all-star games in their future. Idk, I like all of these guys to varying degrees.
 
#7
I'm more inclined to list Bamba and JJJ as disappointments if I had to choose 2. Don't think they will be busts. Don't think any will be busts. Truth be told, I think most of these guys will be solid pros and I think Ayton and Doncic have all-star games in their future. Idk, I like all of these guys to varying degrees.
I think that's part of why I started this thread.

The only draft I can think of where there wasn't a clear bust in the top 8 was that 1996 draft. Iverson, Camby, Abdur-Rahim, Marbury, Allen, Walker, Wright and Kittles. Only three of them never made an all-star game, including Camby though there were two years I thought he should have. And even Kittles looked like a very good player before injuries derailed his career. If Lorenzen Wright is the worst player taken in the top 8 picks that's a VERY good top of the draft. And that's without mentioning that Kobe, Peja, Steve Nash, Jermaine O'Neal, Ilgauskas, Derek Fisher, Shandon Anderson and even the immortal Tony Delk went outside the top 10.

Is this draft that good? I don't know. But there are a lot of high floor guys.

Trae Young is the only guy who really seems boom or bust to me. I lean towards the latter but he has a narrow path to being Curry/Dame like. And he put up better numbers than either of them at the same age so if he can get his shot off successfully on the next level who knows?

Personally I'm not sold on Wendell Carter being Al Horford like. Horford was a significantly better athlete as a prospect and Carter's lack of lateral quickness is going to hurt him in the NBA. And I could be totally wrong but I don't love Jaren Jackson's game. His shooting motion is funky and his movements aren't quick and explosive - they're mechanical and awkward. But he'll still likely stick just because he's a versatile defending big.

Bamba will likely stick. Whether he's a role player or a real force will likely depend on how strong he gets and of course how bad he wants it.

Bagley and Ayton will likely make it just as rebounders and easy bucket getters with the potential to be so much more.

Luka may not have an enormous ceiling but I think he's got a very high floor.

Here's where I'm at. I don't think this draft is as good as 1996 at the top. Or 2003 for that matter. But I think most of these guys will stick. 1996 has three hall of famers with a fourth (Bryant) a given. I think this draft will be short on HOF players but also short on busts.
 
#9
How would you define "disappointment" vs. "bust"? Disappointment is a player who sticks in the league, but is not ultimately worth the high pick? While bust is playing overseas in a few years?

For example, take the draft a decade ago, would you categorize the top 8 like this?
Stars: Rose, Westbrook, Love
Solid: Gallinari, Gordon
Disappoinment: Beasley, Mayo
Bust: Alexander
 
#10
How would you define "disappointment" vs. "bust"? Disappointment is a player who sticks in the league, but is not ultimately worth the high pick? While bust is playing overseas in a few years?

For example, take the draft a decade ago, would you categorize the top 8 like this?
Stars: Rose, Westbrook, Love
Solid: Gallinari, Gordon
Disappoinment: Beasley, Mayo
Bust: Alexander
Exactly.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#11
I think Bagley and Jackson will be stars. It might take Jackson a little longer than Bagley.

Ayton is more of a mystery to me because of his love (or not) of the game. He could be great, or he could be good in the Dwight Howard mold. Everything that makes me uncertain about him has to do what is between the ears and unless you can talk to him and his past coaches and teammates there's no way to tell.

Doncic will be good, but I'm not sold on him being an All Star because of his mediocre athleticism. If he goes to a team that already has scorers, it will be good for him; if not, he could struggle early because he's going to be passing to guys who can't shoot. He's got to bring something major to the table other than passing - shooting or rebounding - in order to get to the All Star level.

Bamba will never be an All Star because of his offensive ineptitude. He's a long term project and the current rules of the game are not going to help him.

Porter I have no idea about. No evidence to have an opinion on him one way or another, other than he's had back surgery. He could be great for four years, get a long term contract, and BAM - he's out for a year with a bad back. Who knows?

Young is boom or bust, and if I had to bet I'd pick the boom. He's quick enough, can shoot, dribble, pass, seems creative enough. He seems like he's got the mind for a point guard. He had absolutely nobody to play with in college. His teammates were so bad it was embarrassing. The NBA rules will help him.

I am very negative on Carter. I saw Carter get overwhelmed playing against athletic college players, basically being flat-footed while others were jumping over him. I just don't see it for Carter. Of all of the above players, I'd pick him to play in China early in his career. There will be many players picked lower in the draft that will be better than Carter (that is if he goes #8).

And while I'm sticking my neck way out there in this Game of Thrones episode, I've got to say that I find it absurd that Carter should be #8 and DiVincenzo should not take that spot. I'd put DiVincenzo over Bridges also. And Young. And Bamba. I'm going to be on DiVincenzo train until it goes completely off the rails. If the Lakers end up drafting him I'll probably commit harikari. Sometimes you've just got to go with your gut and my gut tells me that DiVincenzo is going to be very good, not just because he's a heckuva athlete and shooter, but he's a major league competitor, as his teammate Spellman attested to in an interview at the combine. I still want the Kings to find another #1 to draft this guy. He was hidden at Villanova and I don't think he's going to be hidden in the NBA for very long. Everybody said he was going to be a 2nd rounder.:rolleyes: Pfft. He's climbing up the board and is now at #16 (Suns) in the nba.net mock draft. It wouldn't surprise me if he's drafted even higher on Draft Day.
 

gunks

Hall of Famer
#14
I dig this thread! Top of the lotto is such a crapshoot this year. Every player has a rediculous ceiling and weaknesses that may limit their game at the next level.

Ok, here goes:

Allstar + : Luka, Ayton
Solid: Carter Jr, Bagley, JJJ
Disappointment: Bamba (I'd put him on the solid tier, I think he'll be a good starter, but he's getting a TON of hype lately)
Busts: Young, MPJ, my tier list in three years
 

dude12

Hall of Famer
#16
Busts and disappointments....I guess you have to keep things in perspective. I mean McLemore was a disappointment for me and not a bust because I don't think I ever expected great things from him. TRob was a bust for me.

That being said.....Bamba is getting lots of hype and I don't think he can live up to it, Ayton is number 1 on almost every mock with high expectations and if he doesn't get there does that mean he's a bust?

JJJ....I don't have high expectations on this guy but I think he will disappoint those who do. JJJ going at 3 is going to be a disappointment but if he goes at 7 or 8 it's a steal as someone on here had mentioned.

Like I said though, I like all of these guys to some degree......maybe my least favorite though is going to be Trae Young.
 
#17
Busts and disappointments....I guess you have to keep things in perspective. I mean McLemore was a disappointment for me and not a bust because I don't think I ever expected great things from him. TRob was a bust for me.

That being said.....Bamba is getting lots of hype and I don't think he can live up to it, Ayton is number 1 on almost every mock with high expectations and if he doesn't get there does that mean he's a bust?

JJJ....I don't have high expectations on this guy but I think he will disappoint those who do. JJJ going at 3 is going to be a disappointment but if he goes at 7 or 8 it's a steal as someone on here had mentioned.

Like I said though, I like all of these guys to some degree......maybe my least favorite though is going to be Trae Young.
It's always going to be a bit of semantics but busts are usually pretty clear - they are usually out of the NBA within four years or so.

I don't know if the guys in this draft have HOF potential but most of them have a high enough floor that they'll stick around the NBA for years.
 
#21
All Stars: Ayton / Doncic / MPJ (if fully healthy)

Solid Starter: Bagley / JJJ

Disappointing (Borderline starters/role players): Bamba / Young / Carter

Bust: None. I think at the very least the top 8 will be rotation players.
 
#24
This is my favorite draft thread btw. Ppl here just casually calling these kids busts makes me laugh.
It's just a fun exercise and I thought we had to slot two players into each outcome - as a guessing game. I don't really think any will bust in particular but that was the premise from the OP I thought.
 
#25
I am not singling anyone out, but the bust of this year’s draft will most likely be selected 2nd by the Sacramento Kings.

:p