So, is Marvin living up to expectations? (split)

How is Bagley comparing to your expectations?


  • Total voters
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  • Poll closed .
I think Bagley can impact this roster moving forward way more than Doncic ever could. Bagley is a beast, drafting him showed faith in Fox, Bogdan (Buddy), and brought in Bjeli...drafting doncic would’ve been saying we need a guy to come be our shiny new toy to show the league we can return to relevance. Fox wants to be our guy, drafting Luka would’ve pissed him off, Willie probably wouldn’t be playing as hard, and Bogdan probably wouldn’t resign. Bagley brings something to a core group of talent that Doncic never could, elite-athleticism and potential, and now he has to earn a spot to prove himself on a team playing well. Luka can be really good at basketbal, like really good, but I’m not sure he’d have made this team better in the way Nemanja has. Marvin has to earn minutes on a good team that might, kind of sort of have a winning culture? He wants to be the best player in this draft, and if he plays well enough to earn 30+ minutes at some point this season he will be ready to go off. There’s a lot of skill in this draft class but in terms of situation and potential, it’s hard to see having someone here instead of Marvin. If he becomes WCS-lite, he will still contribute as we have talent, if he becomes an AD-Giannas-lite, we make the playoffs very soon and are a very very scary team to play.
 
But so would Doncic or Porter, either way it's always based on potential unless it's a rare case where it's a Duncan or LeBron. And even since then we've seen guys like Wiggins come in with ridiculous hype and be the third guy on very bad teams.

Just for example - I don't think anyone thought Fultz or Ball were the most NBA ready in 2017. Hell even Fox - a lot of folks knew there'd be more NBA ready talent later in the lotto but that he'd be a great long term prospect. Sometimes I feel like we've learned nothing from Tyreke.
Actually a lot of people thought Lonzo Ball was the most NBA ready player in the draft.
 
I think the Kings have a lot of faith in Bogdan Boganovic, and likely saw Luka Doncic as offering a duplicative skill set in a lot of ways (despite the fact that he's got star potential). Couple that with the reality that the Kings clearly want to play fast, with the ball in Fox's hands, and it's much easier to see why the team drafted a superathlete and rim runner supreme like Marvin Bagley over Doncic.

For the first time in years, it seems like the Kings truly do have a plan and a vision for this team. Though drafting Bagley may have rankled many among Kings fans who had starry eyes at the prospect of drafting Doncic instead (I count myself among them -- he was 1B to Bagley's 1A on my board for the second pick), I think it might be more prudent to celebrate the fact that the Kings are no longer wandering around in the goddamn dark. Instead of Vivek, Vlade, and Joerger looking like the Three Stooges, bumbling about with no clear direction, they look like the Three Musketeers, united in their quest to transform this team. That kind of synergy between ownership, management, and coaching staff is essential. It's what made the Kings teams of the early 2000's hum so effortlessly.

Every decision the franchise has made since the end of last season, from drafting Bagley, to attempting to sign Zach Lavine, to signing Nemanja Bjelica, to pushing the pace at an ungodly speed as the regular season opened, to their newfound emphasis on taking extremely high percentage shots (a recent Ringer piece states that the "Kings are generating and converting shots at the rim at top-10 rates" and that "just nine of the Kings’ 178 3-point attempts have come with a defender within 4 feet of the shooter") points in the direction of a very obvious teamwide identity. And the players are buying in. Willie Cauley-Stein has never looked better. DeAaron Fox looks like an all-star in waiting. Bjelica looks like the smartest veteran signing since Vlade himself donned a Kings uni. And Marvin Bagley looks like the ideal beneficiary of all this team play.

I've been as cynical as any among kf.com's members as these twelve years without a playoff appearance have passed, and even I cannot help but be deeply encouraged by the fact that my expectations have been shattered through 7 games. Now, it could all go belly-up tomorrow. The Kings are exactly the kind of franchise that would tease tantalizing early success only to fold in on themselves when the pressure of sustainability rears its head. Something similar happened to the Magic last year after a strong start. But color me excited to consider the possibility of what it might mean if they actually could sustain this level of success.
I'm not sure any of this matters if Doncic ends up being a superstar and Bagley merely a complimentary piece. You change the plan if a superstar is on the table. But we're a long long way from anybody making that type of judgement yet. What seems to be working this year that hasn't worked in the past is that we have 3 elements that compliment each other well: (1) A guy in Fox who can push the pace relentlessly and get into the paint which forces the defense to react (2) Bigs who can run with him and make themselves targets for easy shots over and around the basket (3) Knockdown shooters who can convert the open looks created by putting all that pressure on the basket. This is Basketball 101 stuff but I can't even remember the last time this team had consistent results in all three areas at the same time. Well that and this season Defense apparently does not matter... like, at all which suits us as a team just fine!

All of this is more a validation of past decisions (Hield, Fox, Cauley-Stein) and adding a great glue-guy in Bjelica to the mix than it is a confirmation that Bagley was the best possible pick at that spot. But it is also easy to see what Bagley's role will be on this team going forward. There is still that one massive weak spot at SF which needs to be solved if they're going to be able to sustain this level of success. Shumpert has been filling in admirably and there is the looming return of Bogdanovic who should provide shooting and smart passing if not ideal size and defensive presence. You can go a long way with 4/5ths of your lineup clicking though.
 
Pundits. TV experts. Radio hosts. Pretty much everybody was saying he could come in and make an immediate impact, and all I was pointing out is that what was expected of him and what he is are two very different things.
In Sacramento? Because all I heard was LOL KANGZ. Kings need to win to minimize the damage of not having a pick (which was always ridiculous, Kings needed to get the best player long term); Bagley can't do this, can't do that. It was all exacerbated in Summer League when he didn't play well without Fox. Everything I heard was only the Kings would pick Bagley second and he was a reach even though he was one of the highest rated prospects all season.
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
Pundits. TV experts. Radio hosts. Pretty much everybody was saying he could come in and make an immediate impact, and all I was pointing out is that what was expected of him and what he is are two very different things.
I think you're getting your Luka narrative and Bagley narratives crossed up here. Bagley, JJJ, and Bamba were seen as your more classical draft prospects, who, while still contributing now, would ultimately be judged more on their production several years in the future. Luka and were both seen as immediate impact players with Luka having the highest floor of those top tier guys.

We're pretty much seeing things play out just like that.
 
Actually a lot of people thought Lonzo Ball was the most NBA ready player in the draft.
I felt like many people thought he was most likely to bust out of all the top picks. Maybe it was because of his dad, but that's just how I recalled it. Certainly one of the most divisive figures to come into the draft in years.
 
I watched Bagley play 6 or so games in college and I was impressed and he had a out side shot also.

He was teamed up with another big so I did not pay a lot of attention to his rebounding.

I always thought he should of gone either #1 or #2 before we new where we were picking.
Now I was hopeful but optimistic because of our track record but we got it right.

Because of who we have and how we are playing I am just fine with his progress and minutes right now.
 
Pundits. TV experts. Radio hosts. Pretty much everybody was saying he could come in and make an immediate impact, and all I was pointing out is that what was expected of him and what he is are two very different things.
The fact that he is not starting or getting 30+ minutes a night doesn’t mean he is not meeting expectations. It doesn’t mean the team is upset with his play. It doesn’t mean he’s not on track or that we should now conclude he shouldn’t have been picked where he was. It doesn’t mean crap. He’s simply being used in a manner that’s most effective for the team right now. Are you going to argue with the team play at this point?

Have you heard coach joerger talk about Marvin? There is absolutely no remorse there. There is excitement and a grin on his face when he talks about him. They have a plan with him and it certainly seems to be working. If people want to hold onto the disappointment they had when Luka wasn’t the pick, more power to you. However I really can’t imagine the Kings management after 8 games of winning basketball, solid contributions from Marvin with flashes of superstar play, all of a sudden have buyers remorse.
 
This thread should have a long shelf life. 20 games in and I see a dominant player when I watch Bagley. He's got a better motor than everyone. He rebounds, defends, can shoot, has nice post moves, is quick off the floor and gets a lot of tip in's. I have a hard time imagining us not being a perennial playoff team starting in the next year or two and a lot of that has to do with Bagley. He looks like he has a ton of confidence; he really does not seem to care who is guarding him -- its as though he thinks of his defender as "some guy who is in the way". The only concern I have, honestly, is getting him the minutes that he deserves.
 
Yes I agree with what you said and he has some growing still in regards to his skills.
I am impressed with how he has mostly avoided foul trouble with his aggressiveness. Once he gets a little stronger his work around the boards on both ends are going to improve.

He gets stuck on the baseline sometimes and I do see him trying a step back shot but that and a consistent 15 foot shot will make him practically unstoppable.
 
This thread should have a long shelf life. 20 games in and I see a dominant player when I watch Bagley. He's got a better motor than everyone. He rebounds, defends, can shoot, has nice post moves, is quick off the floor and gets a lot of tip in's. I have a hard time imagining us not being a perennial playoff team starting in the next year or two and a lot of that has to do with Bagley. He looks like he has a ton of confidence; he really does not seem to care who is guarding him -- its as though he thinks of his defender as "some guy who is in the way". The only concern I have, honestly, is getting him the minutes that he deserves.
Exactly this.


Vlade has quietly put together simply the best young core in the league... and we're just scraping the surface of potential. When is the last time the NBA had a really good big man combo? I honestly can't even remember. But Giles and Bagley have that chance. I'm a big Willie fan as well, but unless he decides to rebound and play some D, not sure how it's gonna work with those two guys around.
 
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Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
Yes I agree with what you said and he has some growing still in regards to his skills.
I am impressed with how he has mostly avoided foul trouble with his aggressiveness. Once he gets a little stronger his work around the boards on both ends are going to improve.

He gets stuck on the baseline sometimes and I do see him trying a step back shot but that and a consistent 15 foot shot will make him practically unstoppable.
He sprained his thumb a couple of games ago and his shooting efficiency went in the pooper immediately after.
 
Exactly this.


Vlade has quietly put together simply the best young core in the league... and we're just scraping the surface of potential. When is the last time the NBA had a really good big man combo? I honestly can't even remember. But Giles and Bagley have that chance. I'm a big Willie fan as well, but unless he decides to rebound and play some D, not sure how it's gonna work with those two guys around.
AD & Cousins
Griffin & Drummond
Griffin & Jordan
Jokic & Millsap
Horford & Millsap
 
MB3 is the most talented Big Man I have watched in a Kings Uni in a very long time. His reaction time and hops appear to be off the charts. The way he uses both hands and RIPS the ball away from the opposing team is an incredible skill. IMO his physical gifts combined with his hard working attitude can make him one of the top Bigs in the association.

On a side note guess who he might match up with when the KIngs play the Mavs:) They both play the 4 spot:)
 
Exactly this.


Vlade has quietly put together simply the best young core in the league... and we're just scraping the surface of potential. When is the last time the NBA had a really good big man combo? I honestly can't even remember. But Giles and Bagley have that chance. I'm a big Willie fan as well, but unless he decides to rebound and play some D, not sure how it's gonna work with those two guys around.
When I wrote my preview there were two guys I excluded from our core: Jackson and Willie. I did not view them as viable components of a perennial contender and 50+ win team. I thought I might be wrong about Willie about 10 game mark. I would have been happy to be wrong!

But like the stretch before the all-star break last year in which he was double figure rebounds, it was unsustainable. Willie is not who we need him to be even with 100M reasons to be. If Willie was who we wanted him to be and needed him to be, and who he claims to be, we would be 12-8 or better. Easily! I think Joerger and front office is resigned to the fact he will never be an enforcer. That is how they can watch him get beat consistently in pick and roll and on the glass and leave him out there. They know he's not that type of player and never will be. They have accepted his weakness in lieu of better options, until MB3 and Harry command more minutes.

What Willie does is out quick other centers to mixed results. But he's afraid to block shots because of a past finger injury, gets pushed around fighting for rebounds, and creates little to nothing out of the high post. I heard this interesting insight the other day: Your center on D is just as important as your PG on offense. Think about that. A PG is very important for your offense to run smoothly. Similarly your center is equally important for your defense. Our defensive efficiency is 20th. Last year it was 27th. I do not see any way we become Top 10 defense with Willie anchoring our defense and boards. It is an impossibility.

I would be remiss to mention Willie is one of the worst FT shooter in the league (34-68 for 50%). Look what Harry did the other game out of the high post, making six sweet dimes. How many of those passes does Willie make? I would venture to say one or zero. So this is who Willie is. He's an expendable flawed player who talks big in lieu of substance. He's frankly a fraud. To be fair an improvement between this and last year is he is keeping his balance better and less inclined to speed up his decision-making in response to pressure. He used to fall down once per game. He doesn't fall down this year. That's something. His scoring efficiency improved for the first 10-15 games but has regressed of late coinciding with his unfocused and apathetic nature.

TS%
52.9% last year
53.5%% this year (MB3 56%)

Rebound rate
14.2% last year
14.6% this year . (MB3 14.2%)

Block rate
3.1% last year
1.5% this year (MB3 4.5%)

Assist rate
13.7% last year
11.3% this year

The conventional sentiment is Willie is a much improved. The numbers do not bear this out. His scoring (+1.5 PPG) and rebounding (+1.1 RPG) is up year over year because we are playing at faster pace. His TS% is especially poor given the number of easy shots his guards get him. His block rate is half and his passing is resulting in less assists. So what to do? Keep hitching your wagon to a highly flawed player? My hope is he plays like he did earlier in the year to raise his value and we dump him to the first sucker. I would send him with Yogi and/or Jackson and filler to the Wizards for Otto Porter.

Otto is a legitimate 6'9". We need his size on the wings to matchup with bigger scoring wings. Otto is also a shot maker with bit of a post game and athlete to boost our fast breaks. Boggy and Shump are good defenders but they often give up 4+ inches against scoring wings. Don't get me started on the futility of Jackson as a defender or Joerger's recent non-defense defense of his playing him over my man Troy Williams.

Otto is being underutilized on the Wizards so I am not concerned about his poor stats. We would have overpay 8-10M per year for his services but that is better than paying 8-10M per year and more for Willie the Fraud. Off the top of my head here are Western conference wings whom we have a hard time matching up against. Otto would solve this issue while improving our league best transition game and league best three point shooting. It is a match made in Hoop Heaven :p .

Guys Otto Can Check Better than Anyone We Have:

- Durant
- Draymond Green
- Luka
- Harrison Barnes
- Paul George
- Tobias Harris
- Joe Ingles
- Gallinari
- Rudy Gay
- Mirotic
- Andrew Wiggins ( a garbage player who seems to go off against us)
- Brandon Ingram
- LeBron

There is a lot of length on this list. We need a player to match up against this length while improving our half court offensive efficiency. Otto can be this guy. Otto can play spot minutes at power forward. Exling Willie can be addition by subtraction once we feel comfortable and confident with MB3 and Giles taking all of the center minutes. If the Wizards do NOT have an interest in Willie via trade, which would be understandable, we should still make an effort to trade for him since there will be almost NO teams besides ours able to take him into our cap and still have cap space next summer for a max player.
 
We can put a nice high light reel together for Willie. His numbers are pretty good.
But he is gutless and afraid. You cannot play winning basketball for long with a lightweight at the 5. Mentally he is out to lunch.
One of the biggest under achievers anywhere. I would be very happy if we traded him.

Marvin is 19 insn't he? One year out of high school. He has skills rarely seen in normal humans. He has shown flashes of taking over games already. I love the guy.
 
When I wrote my preview there were two guys I excluded from our core: Jackson and Willie. I did not view them as viable components of a perennial contender and 50+ win team. I thought I might be wrong about Willie about 10 game mark. I would have been happy to be wrong!

But like the stretch before the all-star break last year in which he was double figure rebounds, it was unsustainable. Willie is not who we need him to be even with 100M reasons to be. If Willie was who we wanted him to be and needed him to be, and who he claims to be, we would be 12-8 or better. Easily! I think Joerger and front office is resigned to the fact he will never be an enforcer. That is how they can watch him get beat consistently in pick and roll and on the glass and leave him out there. They know he's not that type of player and never will be. They have accepted his weakness in lieu of better options, until MB3 and Harry command more minutes.

What Willie does is out quick other centers to mixed results. But he's afraid to block shots because of a past finger injury, gets pushed around fighting for rebounds, and creates little to nothing out of the high post. I heard this interesting insight the other day: Your center on D is just as important as your PG on offense. Think about that. A PG is very important for your offense to run smoothly. Similarly your center is equally important for your defense. Our defensive efficiency is 20th. Last year it was 27th. I do not see any way we become Top 10 defense with Willie anchoring our defense and boards. It is an impossibility.

I would be remiss to mention Willie is one of the worst FT shooter in the league (34-68 for 50%). Look what Harry did the other game out of the high post, making six sweet dimes. How many of those passes does Willie make? I would venture to say one or zero. So this is who Willie is. He's an expendable flawed player who talks big in lieu of substance. He's frankly a fraud. To be fair an improvement between this and last year is he is keeping his balance better and less inclined to speed up his decision-making in response to pressure. He used to fall down once per game. He doesn't fall down this year. That's something. His scoring efficiency improved for the first 10-15 games but has regressed of late coinciding with his unfocused and apathetic nature.

TS%
52.9% last year
53.5%% this year (MB3 56%)

Rebound rate
14.2% last year
14.6% this year . (MB3 14.2%)

Block rate
3.1% last year
1.5% this year (MB3 4.5%)

Assist rate
13.7% last year
11.3% this year

The conventional sentiment is Willie is a much improved. The numbers do not bear this out. His scoring (+1.5 PPG) and rebounding (+1.1 RPG) is up year over year because we are playing at faster pace. His TS% is especially poor given the number of easy shots his guards get him. His block rate is half and his passing is resulting in less assists. So what to do? Keep hitching your wagon to a highly flawed player? My hope is he plays like he did earlier in the year to raise his value and we dump him to the first sucker. I would send him with Yogi and/or Jackson and filler to the Wizards for Otto Porter.

Otto is a legitimate 6'9". We need his size on the wings to matchup with bigger scoring wings. Otto is also a shot maker with bit of a post game and athlete to boost our fast breaks. Boggy and Shump are good defenders but they often give up 4+ inches against scoring wings. Don't get me started on the futility of Jackson as a defender or Joerger's recent non-defense defense of his playing him over my man Troy Williams.

Otto is being underutilized on the Wizards so I am not concerned about his poor stats. We would have overpay 8-10M per year for his services but that is better than paying 8-10M per year and more for Willie the Fraud. Off the top of my head here are Western conference wings whom we have a hard time matching up against. Otto would solve this issue while improving our league best transition game and league best three point shooting. It is a match made in Hoop Heaven :p .

Guys Otto Can Check Better than Anyone We Have:

- Durant
- Draymond Green
- Luka
- Harrison Barnes
- Paul George
- Tobias Harris
- Joe Ingles
- Gallinari
- Rudy Gay
- Mirotic
- Andrew Wiggins ( a garbage player who seems to go off against us)
- Brandon Ingram
- LeBron

There is a lot of length on this list. We need a player to match up against this length while improving our half court offensive efficiency. Otto can be this guy. Otto can play spot minutes at power forward. Exling Willie can be addition by subtraction once we feel comfortable and confident with MB3 and Giles taking all of the center minutes. If the Wizards do NOT have an interest in Willie via trade, which would be understandable, we should still make an effort to trade for him since there will be almost NO teams besides ours able to take him into our cap and still have cap space next summer for a max player.
Porter for Willie is potentially the right kind of thinking, especially if the front office is not enamored with the price tag it will probably take to keep him (i.e. look to Miles Turner contract, etc.) Porter is a clear overpay at his current salary, but theoretically provides us a much more mature, consistent player at a position of high need for us at the 3. For the Kings, the question always comes back to cap space and if it's even usable on a difference maker free agent. If we're always going to be overpaying to attract at best a second tier free agent, then might as well take on Porter who seems to check most of the boxes we need.