I think dumping the water on the fire cost him a win but I don't think winning is his goal. Going in, all he wanted to do was beat Cliff Robinson. His next goal was to survive until the merge. Now he may very well have a loyal band of 4 (the three guys and Julia) to vote out the "girls."
Somebody tell me when the super idol can be played. Can it be played after the vote has been revealed? If so, for instance, if Jason is voted out, can Tai give Jason his idol and Jason use the two and reverse the vote to whoever had the second most votes. If this is so, it's incredibly powerful.