Scoreboard Watch/Playoff Standings Watch 2025 Edition

The Grizzlies are 8th no matter what happens. They may rest starters vs Dallas so we might need to beat Suns to get the 9th seed.
Well not no matter what but yes most likely (like 95% at least).
For them to finish 7th Minnesota should lose against Jazz which is a long shot.

Phoenix also might rest their starters, somehow they didnt do it against the Spurs but who knows?
 
Yeah, really tough to get the 11 pick. It's not impossible to have a worse record than the other play-in loser in the west, but to also end up worse (or tied and win tiebreaker) than both play-in losers in the east is nearly impossible. Easier to hit the lottery!
I think at this point, if we don't make the playoffs through the play-in, we should try to get in a position to save our draft pick, which is top 12 protected.

We need to Lose tomorrow and Chicago Win and we would be tied for #12/13 at 39 wins each. If Dallas wins, they would be #14 in draft order. Even if Dallas loses, we would all be tied at 39 wins, creating a 3 way tie for 12/13/14.

What we need is a Chicago WIN and us to LOSE tomorrow to secure a tie for #12 draft slot (sans making the playoffs), regardless of what happens with Dallas. But if Dallas loses tomorrow, we would keep home court for the first play in game and be in a 3 way tie for #12.

We could potentially wind up in a 4 way tie for # 12 with Atlanta too, if Atlanta loses their last game and both Atlanta and Chicago both miss the playoffs with 39 wins. This is a less likely scenario, because one of ATL or CHI will probably make the playoffs.

If we miss the playoffs and win the #12 pick tie break, we could still save our draft pick at #12.
 
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Well not no matter what but yes most likely (like 95% at least).
For them to finish 7th Minnesota should lose against Jazz which is a long shot.

Phoenix also might rest their starters, somehow they didnt do it against the Spurs but who knows?
Sounds like KD will not play Sunday but Booker and Beal will play normal minutes per Hoopshype suns rumor
 
I'm sorry, but it's the most Kings thing ever to lose our pick in a strong draft and get bounced in the play-in. Even if we make the playoffs, it will be a very swift exit. Essential a totally wasted season given the timeline of our roster.
Strong draft? Eh, last years draft was deeper IMO. The top end is much better in this draft though so once the team was falling off the rails earlier the only thing to doubt is the Kings lack of blowing it up right then to secure a top end slot. The downside is the mocks are starting to correct and we're seeing legit first round talent moving up from the 2nd round unfortunately. This is another fairly guard heavy draft and if someone drops again it is what it is.
 
Strong draft? Eh, last years draft was deeper IMO. The top end is much better in this draft though so once the team was falling off the rails earlier the only thing to doubt is the Kings lack of blowing it up right then to secure a top end slot. The downside is the mocks are starting to correct and we're seeing legit first round talent moving up from the 2nd round unfortunately. This is another fairly guard heavy draft and if someone drops again it is what it is.
Yeh it is not a strong draft. Purely from a prospect perspective it’s viewed as pretty pedestrian outside of Cooper and Harper. And now thanks to the NIL, the second round could be terrible. The good news is next years pool is much stronger and the early second round could have several first round talent guys. Unless Charlotte gets Cooper, they will be bad again next year and we might have the opportunity to grab two first round talents
 
Still can’t take them lightly. Their young guys gonna come in hungry potentially fighting for their next contract. Hope they learned their lesson and that Wizards loss is still fresh.
They absolutely need to win this. You cannot head into the play-in games on a loss, ceding homecourt advantage in the process.

Monk is out, LaRavia is out, Sabonis is hobbled (though not admitting it), but we have young, hungry guys, too. And a lot of pride.
 
Memphis has almost all players uncertain for tomorrow so even though Dallas is still an underdog (according to bookmakers at least) they have a big chance of winning this if they all sit out.
Kings (according to bookies) are huge favorites to win (-15 points handicap) while Minnesota looks like a lock (-22.5 points) since Ant tech was rescinded and Utah is also resting most of their starters. I guess thats the reason Memphis plans to protect their players.
 

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
Wonderful. So we're almost guaranteed to lose our draft pick in the dumbest way possible, with the last gasp of the "super team" Suns rolling over and playing dead. This, by the way, means Monte McNair will have given up a better draft pick to Atlanta for two years of Kevin Huerter than any of the picks he got in return for De'Aaron Fox. Make that one make sense.
 
Wonderful. So we're almost guaranteed to lose our draft pick in the dumbest way possible, with the last gasp of the "super team" Suns rolling over and playing dead. This, by the way, means Monte McNair will have given up a better draft pick to Atlanta for two years of Kevin Huerter than any of the picks he got in return for De'Aaron Fox. Make that one make sense.
Yeah, I think I'm on the "we need to do better than McNair" bandwagon now (shout out to Sactowndog), but at the same time I'm still on the "we will very likely not do better than McNair after Vivek cans him" bandwagon.

I guess being in both camps is like the opposite of having my cake and eating it too? Since both camps are a bummer.
 
Memphis has almost all players uncertain for tomorrow so even though Dallas is still an underdog (according to bookmakers at least) they have a big chance of winning this if they all sit out.
Kings (according to bookies) are huge favorites to win (-15 points handicap) while Minnesota looks like a lock (-22.5 points) since Ant tech was rescinded and Utah is also resting most of their starters. I guess thats the reason Memphis plans to protect their players.
Dallas will most likely sits most of their starters as well (AD, PJW, Klay are out), so perhaps it won't matter what the Kings will do.

Kings would never rest players/tank due to the whole "Sacramento Proud" mentality in Vivek era, I mean we could rest the starters if the margin is big with the 9th place on the line but that is as far as we can go.
 

Warhawk

Give blood and save a life!
Staff member
Wonderful. So we're almost guaranteed to lose our draft pick in the dumbest way possible, with the last gasp of the "super team" Suns rolling over and playing dead. This, by the way, means Monte McNair will have given up a better draft pick to Atlanta for two years of Kevin Huerter than any of the picks he got in return for De'Aaron Fox. Make that one make sense.
If it doesn't convey this year it will almost certainly convey next year, and if not then it turns into 2 second rounders, correct? How long are we going to hamstring ourselves with regards to our own picks (just in the hopes of keeping this year's middling first rounder in what I've been told is not a great draft)? Get it off our books and free up resources to make moves. It's going to convey eventually, somehow. Folks keep complaining about both not keeping the pick and also about not being able to make trades with our picks due to that one hanging out there indefinitely.

The trades themselves are products of different times and different situations.

Huerter definitely lived up to the promise the first year and was worth the pick if you ask me. He was a major piece of the Beam Team that rejuvenated both the team (GM of the year, coach of the year, etc., etc.) and the city. Just because he got injured and forgot how to shoot doesn't mean the trade was bad at the time.

We effectively got Levine, two first rounders, and five second rounders for Fox, with a couple of second rounders going for JV (who has been great). Fox had poisoned the well for deals by saying he would only sign with San Antonio, etc., and was injured and wasn't going to re-sign here. We got what we could out of a bad situation. You can't compare the two.
 

Capt. Factorial

ceterum censeo delendum esse Argentum
Staff member
OK, just in time for the first games to start today, I nerded out and modeled the last two games of the season and the play-in for Sac, Dallas, and all four eastern conference play-in teams. I made the simple assumption that all games are 50/50 tossups, because come on. And then I modeled the lottery if we were in it. The results:

Probability we get the 8 seed in the playoffs (lose our pick) = 25% (obviously)
Probability we finish 13/14 in lotto (lose our pick) = 64.2%
Probability we get the 12 pick = 7.7%
Probability we get the 11 pick = 0.2%
Probability we get the 4 pick = 0.9%
Probability we get the 3 pick = 0.8%
Probability we get the 2 pick = 0.7%
Probability we get Cooper Flagg = 0.6%

Just so we know where we stand right now...
So...when i calculated this out, there were 9 regular-season games that had bearing on the Kings' odds of keeping their pick this year. So far 7 of those 9 games have been played and all 7 of those have gone in favor of the Kings. Kinda silly luck. Still, a win today (which, with the Suns sitting everybody of consequence seems very likely) will continue to make it difficult, and none of it matters if we make the 8 seed.
 

Capt. Factorial

ceterum censeo delendum esse Argentum
Staff member
Mavs fans had to be irate when they found out that Phoenix was going to sit four starters. 'Cause Kings fans might go back-and-forth over whether or not they should tank, but you know who for sure wasn't trying to tank? The Dallas Mavericks.
Umm, the Mavericks are sitting AD, Klay, P.J., and Lively, so I'm not so sure about their intentions.
 
Mavs are out. -29 after 3 qs. Meaning we will face them in Sacramento.

I wonder. What are the chances for the team to win a first play-in game at home and lose second play-in on the road in the consecutive seasons? 0.01%? ;)

So, I see to viable options: we upset OKC in the first round or Kings upset their fanbase in their next and last game of this season :)