Larry David
Starter
This is a long post, and I’ve duplicated a chunk for a post regarding possible trades at this deadline (sorry). I think the fans need to be educated on this point. Unless a top free agent decides to sign here, the Kings should save the cap space until after the new CBA is in place. Overpaying a second tier free agent will damage the team’s future for 4-5 years. It’s important to start talking about this now, because the team cannot and fans will scream bloody murder about the Maloofs pocketing the money.
I. There will be a 2011 lockout and salaries will change.
NBA owners are going to roll back the clock and they are going to do it with a lockout that lasts most – if not all of – the 2011 season. With recent losses and the economy as a reason for the fans (didn't say it was a good one), they’ve got one shot to completely remake the salary structure of the league. And based upon 1999, they know they can break the union. Most players spend a lot of what they make and a ton of players had cashflow issues during the 1999 lockout. Whereas the owners shrewdly structured the new TV deal where they collect the TV money – even if there is no season(s) – and they simply have to repay it later if the year is lost to a lockout (most likely by extending the TV deal another year).
You wouldn’t think about it at first glance – but there is an odd plurality owners– that will most like prevent 16 owners from saving most / all of the season. First, owners that not only want to avoid future losses – but dramatically revamp the system to ensure profits – even if it means losing a season. You know Sterling is in there, Bobcats, Ws, Grizz, Hawks, Suns, ect. There are more. Not inconceivable the Maloofs wouldn’t want to kick the tires here. Second, teams that have screwed up their cap and it’s in their best interest not to play a season. Hornets, Suns, and Pacers jump to mind. George Shin, you could: (1) play the season and lose millions; or (2) not play the season, collect the TV money to cover all of your operating costs, and come back one year later to a profitable team – which way are you leaning? Third, small market teams. You’re Utah. You would rather play the season and you can make money under the current rules – but you complete against the Lakers and other squads that can spend 20 million more than you. Don’t you have at least some interest in a hard cap and rolling back salaries? How about you Bucks?
Furthermore, even if you didn’t have 16 owners in “out for blood mode” to start … the NBA most likely isn’t getting a deal pounded out before a lockout is imposed. The players always want to make their “best pitch” at the 11th hour. There will be a lot of owners screaming about killing the golden goose and upsetting fans just before the season … but once you start missing games … well that ship has sailed. At which point, owners who were on the fence say, “Ok, we tried to do it the right way – it’s time to break the union.” See hockey. Once the lockout started, the owners never budged. They said – you’ll take this … you just don’t know it yet.
They will cut everybody – including the top guys – but the 3rd-4th starters will see the biggest drops. Owners realize fans are there to see the top guy and it doesn’t make a ton of sense to pay average starters 5-8 million dollars.
And it’s all on the table – hard cap, 4 year limits (with limited or no guaranteed money in the 3rd and 4th years, retroactively rolling back old contracts.
II. Unless you sign a top guy, it makes no sense to spend now.
If you were looking to buy a home in 2006 and you knew the prices were about to dramatically going to reset in 12 months, would you overpay by 2006 prices anyhow just because you had cash? I think the answer is no.
You don’t have to spend it just because you have it. See Detroit. They cleared cap to make run a Boozer. Instead of waiting, they spent ridiculous sums on Villanueva and Gordon. They still stink and their cap is jacked – even by current prices.
If you can sign somebody like Lebron down to Joe Johnson … well then do it. I’m willing to assume that’s not going to happen. Let’s start the conversation with David Lee and Rudy Gay. To sign them, it probably takes a 5 year 50 million dollar offer. And since there are lots of teams with cap and this is Sacramento, it’s not inconceivable the bidding could go well beyond that. When the new CBA comes along, those player will probably makes 65% of what they do now – and that could swing by another 10% either way.
Would you rather sign David Lee now for 10 million a year – to a 5 year deal with all 5 guaranteed? Or sign a similar player the next off-season 4 year 26 million dollar contact with the last two seasons having only 3 million locked up against the cap?
Would you rather be about 7th in line this summer or be holding the most cap in 2011 … while teams are cutting players under amnesty provisions … possibly to get under a hard cap? Same thing happened in hockey. The teams with cap were able to scoop up a lot of players making a fraction of their old salaries.
What if you sign Lee for 9 million a season and the hard cap is 60? Is getting some frontcourt help now worth hurting your ability to resign Evans and Landry down the road?
Just too much uncertainty. The Kings will most likely be shopping for big men. At this point, teams will openly conceded that most big men are severely overpaid – but “it’s the going market, so you have to do it.” …however, we all know the market is going to change and could change severely … and nobody is sure where it will go. Sound like a good time to invest?
Even if you don’t think there will be a lockout, salaries are going down a lot. I’ll put it to you this way, would you rather: (1) buy Sacramento real estate at 2005 prices; or (2) shop for the first time at current prices and be holding the most cash?
After waiting a long time to get out of some bad contracts, the Kings could be ready to overpay (under the current salary structure) for long term deals that will be unmovable cap killers when the year is over.
Let the prospects grow another year and make a killing under the new CBA. Call it a Sacramento tradition – we’re always a breakout team after a work stoppage.
III. Fans need to get behind this and spread the word
There is a huge fine for any owner talking about the lockout – in particular how the NBA is about to break the players and roll back the salary. So at most, you’ll hear the team say “Look, the right deal wasn’t there, so we’ll wait and see what happened under the new CBA.” The team cannot say – “All of these guys are about to take a huge paycut, so we’re not going to overpay.” Thus, that job falls to the fans.
And they need to. I’m sure there are many in the organization who realize this, but they are terrified of getting killed in the paper, web, and radio. Fans are already grumbling about the Maloofs sitting on the cap. If people aren’t talking about this and supporting the wise fiscal move – we could see a full fledged Detroit style splurge … which will severely cap the potential of this team.
I. There will be a 2011 lockout and salaries will change.
NBA owners are going to roll back the clock and they are going to do it with a lockout that lasts most – if not all of – the 2011 season. With recent losses and the economy as a reason for the fans (didn't say it was a good one), they’ve got one shot to completely remake the salary structure of the league. And based upon 1999, they know they can break the union. Most players spend a lot of what they make and a ton of players had cashflow issues during the 1999 lockout. Whereas the owners shrewdly structured the new TV deal where they collect the TV money – even if there is no season(s) – and they simply have to repay it later if the year is lost to a lockout (most likely by extending the TV deal another year).
You wouldn’t think about it at first glance – but there is an odd plurality owners– that will most like prevent 16 owners from saving most / all of the season. First, owners that not only want to avoid future losses – but dramatically revamp the system to ensure profits – even if it means losing a season. You know Sterling is in there, Bobcats, Ws, Grizz, Hawks, Suns, ect. There are more. Not inconceivable the Maloofs wouldn’t want to kick the tires here. Second, teams that have screwed up their cap and it’s in their best interest not to play a season. Hornets, Suns, and Pacers jump to mind. George Shin, you could: (1) play the season and lose millions; or (2) not play the season, collect the TV money to cover all of your operating costs, and come back one year later to a profitable team – which way are you leaning? Third, small market teams. You’re Utah. You would rather play the season and you can make money under the current rules – but you complete against the Lakers and other squads that can spend 20 million more than you. Don’t you have at least some interest in a hard cap and rolling back salaries? How about you Bucks?
Furthermore, even if you didn’t have 16 owners in “out for blood mode” to start … the NBA most likely isn’t getting a deal pounded out before a lockout is imposed. The players always want to make their “best pitch” at the 11th hour. There will be a lot of owners screaming about killing the golden goose and upsetting fans just before the season … but once you start missing games … well that ship has sailed. At which point, owners who were on the fence say, “Ok, we tried to do it the right way – it’s time to break the union.” See hockey. Once the lockout started, the owners never budged. They said – you’ll take this … you just don’t know it yet.
They will cut everybody – including the top guys – but the 3rd-4th starters will see the biggest drops. Owners realize fans are there to see the top guy and it doesn’t make a ton of sense to pay average starters 5-8 million dollars.
And it’s all on the table – hard cap, 4 year limits (with limited or no guaranteed money in the 3rd and 4th years, retroactively rolling back old contracts.
II. Unless you sign a top guy, it makes no sense to spend now.
If you were looking to buy a home in 2006 and you knew the prices were about to dramatically going to reset in 12 months, would you overpay by 2006 prices anyhow just because you had cash? I think the answer is no.
You don’t have to spend it just because you have it. See Detroit. They cleared cap to make run a Boozer. Instead of waiting, they spent ridiculous sums on Villanueva and Gordon. They still stink and their cap is jacked – even by current prices.
If you can sign somebody like Lebron down to Joe Johnson … well then do it. I’m willing to assume that’s not going to happen. Let’s start the conversation with David Lee and Rudy Gay. To sign them, it probably takes a 5 year 50 million dollar offer. And since there are lots of teams with cap and this is Sacramento, it’s not inconceivable the bidding could go well beyond that. When the new CBA comes along, those player will probably makes 65% of what they do now – and that could swing by another 10% either way.
Would you rather sign David Lee now for 10 million a year – to a 5 year deal with all 5 guaranteed? Or sign a similar player the next off-season 4 year 26 million dollar contact with the last two seasons having only 3 million locked up against the cap?
Would you rather be about 7th in line this summer or be holding the most cap in 2011 … while teams are cutting players under amnesty provisions … possibly to get under a hard cap? Same thing happened in hockey. The teams with cap were able to scoop up a lot of players making a fraction of their old salaries.
What if you sign Lee for 9 million a season and the hard cap is 60? Is getting some frontcourt help now worth hurting your ability to resign Evans and Landry down the road?
Just too much uncertainty. The Kings will most likely be shopping for big men. At this point, teams will openly conceded that most big men are severely overpaid – but “it’s the going market, so you have to do it.” …however, we all know the market is going to change and could change severely … and nobody is sure where it will go. Sound like a good time to invest?
Even if you don’t think there will be a lockout, salaries are going down a lot. I’ll put it to you this way, would you rather: (1) buy Sacramento real estate at 2005 prices; or (2) shop for the first time at current prices and be holding the most cash?
After waiting a long time to get out of some bad contracts, the Kings could be ready to overpay (under the current salary structure) for long term deals that will be unmovable cap killers when the year is over.
Let the prospects grow another year and make a killing under the new CBA. Call it a Sacramento tradition – we’re always a breakout team after a work stoppage.
III. Fans need to get behind this and spread the word
There is a huge fine for any owner talking about the lockout – in particular how the NBA is about to break the players and roll back the salary. So at most, you’ll hear the team say “Look, the right deal wasn’t there, so we’ll wait and see what happened under the new CBA.” The team cannot say – “All of these guys are about to take a huge paycut, so we’re not going to overpay.” Thus, that job falls to the fans.
And they need to. I’m sure there are many in the organization who realize this, but they are terrified of getting killed in the paper, web, and radio. Fans are already grumbling about the Maloofs sitting on the cap. If people aren’t talking about this and supporting the wise fiscal move – we could see a full fledged Detroit style splurge … which will severely cap the potential of this team.
