Rebuild: intentionally on hold?

[fnordius]

Something in another thread just reminded me of a frightening thought I had the other day.

Many have attempted to understand our failure to rebuild three years ago, or two years ago, or last year, or this year. Geoff's contract collection leaves us pretty messed up until 2010, and signing Mikki until then seemed like the last nail in the coffin; that we'd be locked into a period of 4-5 years where we were no good, but couldn't do much beyond cost cutting and bandaids. This makes no sense in a number of ways, so we've been reduced to pondering whether Geoff has lost his mojo, his marbles, or both.

This assumption (Geoff is blowing it, and/or the Maloofs are meddling horribly) is not necessary, however, for a logically consistent (and simpler) explanation.

If I were one of the Maloofs, something I absolutely MUST have done by now is to make contingency plans in case the arena situation did not get resolved. To neglect that would be absolutely nuts. There's no way they're going to share Plan B with us, but one must exist.

In that context, stalling on the rebuild, while applying bandaids and cost cutting measures, makes sense to some degree. I don't think it's what I'd do as an owner, but the temptation to do a complete remake of the team in conjunction with a move is understandable. They could have a new location, with a new roster, new colors, maybe even a new team nickname. Should Geoff feel more inclined to retire than to move, he'd be leaving his successor a pleasingly clean slate to work with. Circumstances like that would also make the franchise very attractive to prospective purchasers, should the Maloofs feel that they had to bail. And if nothing had been resolved vis-a-vis the arena by 2010, it seems almost certain that Stern would okay a move, sale, or whatever, at that time.

I'm not saying that this theory has nothing going against it, the facts don't all line up perfectly behind it. But it does seem (to me, off the top of my head) at least as probable as many of the straws that we've grasped at in the past. Maybe we've neglected thinking in this direction because it's even more depressing than meddling owners, a slumping GM, or a front office which is blind and directionless.

What do you think? Does this notion seem more in tune with reality than the alternatives, or is it merely another wrongheaded attempt to explain away things which are illogical?

 

[FakeInjury]

I dont see the point. Do we fire our best talent evaluator, all over a decent season, i think not!

 

[Bricklayer]

I dont see the point. Do we fire our best talent evaluator, all over a decent season, i think not!

We haven't had a decent season in quite some time.

And the initial post...well, maybe. Who knows. But garden variety stupidity, or in this case ignorance and delusion, work as well to explain the mess wihtout any conspiracy or planning for the future or whatever. In fact it would be just as easy to say that already being in the midst of a rebuild would make it easier to attract fans/interest, because the promise of being good again would be immediately before you.

 

[VF21]

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Whoa. Talk about the ultimate conspiracy theory.

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[bajaden]

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.....AHHHHH. There, I feel better now. I just can't beleive that someone stole the plot of my new book. Damm!

 

[CruzDude]

Bits of the original thread here make sense but not all of it. Don't forget that $11M comes off the books next year for the 3 expiring Atlanta players in the Bibby trade (Lue, Wright and AJ). Now remember how well the Kings played when RonRon was out was watching a playoff team?

I don't think the "rebuilding" is on-hold as a plan, it just looks that way to all of us fans. To make a trade you have to have something others want. KT and SAR don't meet that criteria. And you don't want more 3-4 year contracts in what other teams are willing to offer (dump).

I admit tho', that circumstances seem to have brought those conditions together by coincidence (I'll assume it's a coincidence for now) that make the appearance of a bigger "rebuilding" than it really is. But other circumstances prevented a different scenario from occurring last year. Would Dwight Gooden have been a difference maker for the Kings vs. Mikki Moore? Don't really think so. Gooden is good on a good team with a super-star, but on the Kings he would be another role player.

The core is there (as I have maintained the past few months): Kevin, Beno, Mikki, Brad and Salmons in place of RonRon. Hawes is coming along, Cisco is top notch as 6th man and Shelden could be a monster off the bench or a bust. We'll know more come October. It is April 1 and not a April Fools joke from me to say "watch for a major acquisition by Petrie this July".

But thread is a good thought provoker and hits a number of hot points.

 

[Brinzotti]

In all seriousness, what would happen if Kings management said they were rebuilding and had a plan to do so? I bet the team would be in more of a disaster than they currently are. I don't think a team would ever publicly say "we're going to tank a few games now and hopes of a better draft pick" or "we're going to play our youths more in preparation for future seasons". Teams want to give themselves their best chance to win their next game.
I think the term "retool" is much more pleasant because the Spurs were able to keep winning championships after losing Avery Johnson and David Robinson. There was never a "rebuild" time for them.
The Kings management wants to win. Period. They might not have had the best plan or be taking the correct action to become an elite team but they are at least trying. At the start of the season, GP and Reggie probably thought they could put a winning product on the court this season. The same could probably be said about Musselman last season.
I bet the difference between a winning and losing season this season is because of injuries. SAR and KT haven't played squat this season. Mike Bibby, Kevin, Beno and Ron have all missed significant time. Whenever a player comes back from any injury, they aren't going to continue where they left off. Only one Kings player (Moore) has played in every single game this season.


Every team wants to get better through the acquisitions they make. I'd say it's possible for any team to go from the bottom of the NBA to the top during one single off season. Just look at what Boston managed to do. Hopefully the Kings will make some retooling moves this off-season.

 

[kennadog]

I think the term "retool" is much more pleasant because the Spurs were able to keep winning championships after losing Avery Johnson and David Robinson. There was never a "rebuild" time for them.

The Spurs had Duncan ready to take over, thanks to being horrible for one year with Robinson out. It resulted in the number one draft choice in a year that had a Tim Duncan.

A 10th choice last year is the highest selection the Kings have had since Jason Williams at 7.

 

[Spike]

Conspiracy?

*Puts on tin foil hat. Not aluminum, but real tin. The govt got rid of tin a long time ago...think about it.*

 

[Bricklayer]

In all seriousness, what would happen if Kings management said they were rebuilding and had a plan to do so?

I hope you are kidding -- that is PRECISELY what needs to be said. Having management announce they had a plan, and begin to execute it, would be an immense relief and the first sign fo hope in these parts in a long time.

 

[CruzDude]

But so far.................??? No announcements, only second hand rhetoric (paraphased here) that the Maloofs ".... want to see the kids more..." and "want to see RonRon extended..".

Not a peep about any plan. Maybe between Theus and RonRon ego's, Maloofs enthusiastic desire to win and grow and GP's invisible style, which has worked miracles in the past, there is not yet a consensus of exactly what they want to do these last 9 games?

Then RonRon pops off yesterday (or day before) saying to the effect "sure, lets play the kids more and see what then can do..." then goes out and appears to get subbed for Shelden as soon as he shows 2 minutes of good play. At least thats how I saw it. Otherwise, don't have a clue what team or management are up to.

 

[Brinzotti]

I hope you are kidding -- that is PRECISELY what needs to be said. Having management announce they had a plan, and begin to execute it, would be an immense relief and the first sign of hope in these parts in a long time.

Yeah, but what are the chances that anyone has ever said that? I could really care less whether the Kings management says. It the actions that speak louder than words. With you and your draft board, Brick, I'm sure you'd want them to say it really bad. Me on the other hand I think that GP can turn it around in any one season if he didn't have so many bad contracts on the roster and by that I mean KT and SAR. It's not GP's fault for those, it's injuries.
Like I said before, I think it will only take one off-season to turn things around, look what happened to Boston. GP wants to put a winning product on the court, I don't think he'd ever give a plan to rebuild

 

[Brinzotti]

The Spurs had Duncan ready to take over, thanks to being horrible for one year with Robinson out. It resulted in the number one draft choice in a year that had a Tim Duncan.

A 10th choice last year is the highest selection the Kings have had since Jason Williams at 7.

I don't think Duncan can win by himself, it's the supporting role that he's always had around him that allows him to get the job done. In 1998-1999 he had David Robinson and Avery Johnson. In 2002-2003 Duncan had Tony Parker and Kung-Foo Bowen.

The 2004 Pistons didn't draft a number 1 to lead them to their championship, Kobe was drafted 13th and Shaq was signed as a free agent by the Lakers during their dynasty. A high draft pick isn't required to build a championship team but it definitely would help out a lot.

Martin and Artest are good enough to get the job done, but they need better backups and a better (or more improved) PG and PF.

I want the Kings to win, but I don't think it will take a rebuilding, just some retooling. It will take a few years to shed some bad contracts but all it takes is one season to turn things around.

 

[kennadog]

No one player can win by himself. I was just pointing out that the Kings haven't started a rebuild with a superstar like Duncan already in place. When you said the Spurs were able to keep winning after losing Robinson and Avery, I didn't think it was a good example. We'd probably have kept winning without a "rebuild" if we'd had Duncan ready to take over after Webber, thanks to sucking badly enough for a year to get a #1 draft pick with Duncan available to draft.

 

[tyrant]

its on hold alright. why else would we pick up the worst players in the league. we've seen more garbage than new york city. and new arena deal? makes sense. every decision that's been made has led us from bad to terrible to just pathetic.

 

[Kingster]

Something in another thread just reminded me of a frightening thought I had the other day.

Many have attempted to understand our failure to rebuild three years ago, or two years ago, or last year, or this year. Geoff's contract collection leaves us pretty messed up until 2010, and signing Mikki until then seemed like the last nail in the coffin; that we'd be locked into a period of 4-5 years where we were no good, but couldn't do much beyond cost cutting and bandaids. This makes no sense in a number of ways, so we've been reduced to pondering whether Geoff has lost his mojo, his marbles, or both.

This assumption (Geoff is blowing it, and/or the Maloofs are meddling horribly) is not necessary, however, for a logically consistent (and simpler) explanation.

If I were one of the Maloofs, something I absolutely MUST have done by now is to make contingency plans in case the arena situation did not get resolved. To neglect that would be absolutely nuts. There's no way they're going to share Plan B with us, but one must exist.

In that context, stalling on the rebuild, while applying bandaids and cost cutting measures, makes sense to some degree. I don't think it's what I'd do as an owner, but the temptation to do a complete remake of the team in conjunction with a move is understandable. They could have a new location, with a new roster, new colors, maybe even a new team nickname. Should Geoff feel more inclined to retire than to move, he'd be leaving his successor a pleasingly clean slate to work with. Circumstances like that would also make the franchise very attractive to prospective purchasers, should the Maloofs feel that they had to bail. And if nothing had been resolved vis-a-vis the arena by 2010, it seems almost certain that Stern would okay a move, sale, or whatever, at that time.

I'm not saying that this theory has nothing going against it, the facts don't all line up perfectly behind it. But it does seem (to me, off the top of my head) at least as probable as many of the straws that we've grasped at in the past. Maybe we've neglected thinking in this direction because it's even more depressing than meddling owners, a slumping GM, or a front office which is blind and directionless.

What do you think? Does this notion seem more in tune with reality than the alternatives, or is it merely another wrongheaded attempt to explain away things which are illogical?

I think it's a little more subtle than that. The Maloofs want a new arena in Sacto. All things being equal, is it easier to get that arena done with a .250 record (Blow It Up Option) or a .450 record (Medicority Option)? I'll go out on a limb and say the .450 record is preferable because they want as much political support as possible, and human nature being what it is, people are more prone to make such decisions not on a distant future prospect of a winning team, but on the current reality. So, sure the arena plays into this strategy, and I do think it is a willful strategy to try desperately to remain mediocre during the down time and hope to make the playoffs eventually. The arena is one part of the financial puzzle that is motivating GP and the Maloofs to do the Mediocrity Option. They are willing to sacrifice the greater potential upside of the Blow It Up Option (i.e. getting a superstar) for the financial gain of the Mediocrity Option.

 

[CruzDude]

I think it's a little more subtle than that. The Maloofs want a new arena in Sacto. All things being equal, is it easier to get that arena done with a .250 record (Blow It Up Option) or a .450 record (Medicority Option)? I'll go out on a limb and say the .450 record is preferable because they want as much political support as possible, and human nature being what it is, people are more prone to make such decisions not on a distant future prospect of a winning team, but on the current reality. So, sure the arena plays into this strategy, and I do think it is a willful strategy to try desperately to remain mediocre during the down time and hope to make the playoffs eventually. The arena is one part of the financial puzzle that is motivating GP and the Maloofs to do the Mediocrity Option. They are willing to sacrifice the greater potential upside of the Blow It Up Option (i.e. getting a superstar) for the financial gain of the Mediocrity Option.

And this has to do with reality how? Given the circumstances they have to deal with the past 2 years: stuck for awhile with KT from getting rid of CWebb, not having any players as bait to get a star from anyone else, a downer year with Musselman (without major injuries BTW) and now major players missing major time and still better, the Kings ARE better off now. With $11M coming off the cap this summer, the emergence of Beno, Hawes and likely Shelden, and a 13-14 pick in a very strong draft, looks like the rebuild is slowly coming along.

In my post above I talk about a core of good players we have that are mostly young with Brad at an all-star level (when he doesn't blow a fuse and get booted in the 3rd quarter anyway) and RonRon being one of the best defenders in the league as well as scoring plus Kevin, well gives me something to look forward to next year in a more stable environment.

 

[Kingster]

And this has to do with reality how? Given the circumstances they have to deal with the past 2 years: stuck for awhile with KT from getting rid of CWebb, not having any players as bait to get a star from anyone else, a downer year with Musselman (without major injuries BTW) and now major players missing major time and still better, the Kings ARE better off now. With $11M coming off the cap this summer, the emergence of Beno, Hawes and likely Shelden, and a 13-14 pick in a very strong draft, looks like the rebuild is slowly coming along.

In my post above I talk about a core of good players we have that are mostly young with Brad at an all-star level (when he doesn't blow a fuse and get booted in the 3rd quarter anyway) and RonRon being one of the best defenders in the league as well as scoring plus Kevin, well gives me something to look forward to next year in a more stable environment.

I think you better re-read my post. I'm not saying they're not a better team than last year. I'm saying they were mediocre last year, this year, and probably next year. And I'm saying that there is a price to be paid for the Mediocrity Option. That price is the probability that at the peak of this next upward cycle they will never be as good in the future as they would have with the Blow It Up Option.