Rebounding Per48 Part Deux

[Bricklayer]

Back in the fall I started a thread looking at the Kings rebounding numbers in an effort to see why we sucked. At the time, I was comparing their performances this year to their performances in the past. Injuries, personnel changes, rotation changes later, we still suck on the boards. Its such an important issue for us thought I'd start a new thread with the updated numbers as we head into the All-Star break, and this time compare them to the rest of the league:

By raw averages, right now Webb is tied for 10th in the league in rebounding, and Brad is 17th. Looks promising, and they are the #2 duo in the league (to Marion/Stoudemire) but of course we know we struggle, so onto the real numbers:

Methodology Note: IMHO the best way to look at the numbers is per48 min, so that you equalize guys who play lots of minutes with guys who don't. I also remove the stupid filters they put on most of the lists which eliminate 2/3 of the players in the league for not having enough minutes played (the filters are for players who would qualify to win the rebounding title, and that's not my focus). It lets in a few riffraff players, but also is a far better indicator of whether your guy is going to get a rebound on any particular possession against his peers. Is tough though -- Shawn Marion is acknowledged as a great rebounder, but per 48, he's only 41st overall in the league.


By position per/48

POINT GUARD (83 total listed)
Jackson 7.3 (#5 NBA)
Bibby 5.5 (#18 NBA)
House 5.3 (#23 NBA) -- SAC stats only (approx rank)

-- so, if healthy our PG rotation looks to be about as good as any in the league on the boards. Unfortunately its the least important position rebounding wise, and of course we are never healthy and have lost our most exceptional rebounder (for his position) for the year.

OFF GUARD (120 total listed)
Evans 6.8 (#38 NBA)
Martin 6.8 (#39 NBA)
Mobley 4.9 (#92 NBA) -- SAC stats only (approx rank)

-- Evans and Martin are both good, if not great, OG rebounders, but Cat gets most of the minutes and is undersized and in the bottom 1/4 of all OGs. Bit of a surprise there actually. Evans also plays SF, and there he is not a real strong rebounder.

SMALL FORWARD (98 total listed)
Daniels 11.3 (#5 NBA)
Barnes 8.8 (#21 NBA)
Peja 5.3 (#84 NBA)

-- Daniels of course is a bit of a multipositional player with too few minutes to really matter (he's 57th among PFs if you call him a PF). Barnes is a good hustling SF rebounder in the top 1/4 of SFs. Peja gets 39 min a night though, and obviously its been a disastrous year so far for him on the glass (84th of 98 SFs in the league).

POWER FORWARD (130 total listed)
Webber 13.0 (#28 NBA)
Bradley 11.0 (#63 NBA) -- SAC stats only (approx rank)
Songaila 9.6 (#94 NBA)

-- Webb is of course a good one. Not quite dominant enough to make up for the rest of the team's weakness though. Bradley's only gotten a few minutes. Darius is undersized and almost in the bottom 1/4 of all PFs on the glass.

CENTER (109 total listed)
Ostertag 13.2 (#28 NBA)
Miller 12.0 (#47 NBA)

-- Tag is a good rebounder, but not as dominant as he's been in years past when he has often been a Top 20 per/48 guy. Brad is ranked 17th in the league in overall boards, but really is only slightly above average for a center per/48 this year. Has been improving (he only averaged 8.0 in November, but was up to 10.1 in January and is at 9.4 in Feb), but still not as good as he was last year for some reason.


OVERALL -- amongst our major minute starters, Bibby + Webb get the job done and are in the top 1/4 at their respective positions. Brad has just been average, but has gotten stronger on the glass as the year went along. Peja's board struggles are of course well documented -- among the very worst this year and ranked #333 in the league right now overall. But Mobley's weakness surprised me a little. With he and Peja both out there together, we have bottom 1/4 rebounders at both the 2 and 3, which is hard to overcome. Off the bench we have some good rebounders at their positions in Tag and Barnes, but they don't play enough to consistently help. We have some pretty good rebounders at OG in Mo & Martin, but they are just barely in the top 1/3 at their position, so not dominant, and minutes are sometimes scarce. On the other hand Darius is weak for a PF on the glass, and is our main frontcourt reserve. Our one truly exceptional rebounding reserve (Bobby) is lost for the season. Bottomline right now we have two good rebounders in Tag and Webb, only one of whom plays, but no truly great ones able to compensate for the weak rebounders on the team.

 

[iheartBrad]

very interesting Brick

 

[KingKong]

... in other words we're pretty much scroood.

 

[bozzwell]

Very good stats Brick. If we could now somehow add shots/rebounds-per-game averages (for and against the Kings) and relate that to the rest of the league (average) we could adjust those numbers to see the real value of our rpg's. I am afraid it would make Pedja and Cuttino look abysmal and Bibby and Miller at just average.

 

[Bricklayer]

... in other words we're pretty much scroood.

Not as long as we just go ahead and start a Tag/Webb/Barnes/Mo/Bibby lineup.

 

[bigbadred00]

but without filters.. you can easily get skewed stats. if the sample is too small then you can get outlandish things like D. Harvey #1 with 21 RP/48 in 3 GP and 5.3 MPG, and Jamal Sampson with 18 RPG/48 in 14.3 MPG in 23 Games played. I don't know without Filters your getting very varied results, you should really get a filter that restricts certain things. Let's say you play 80% of your teams games and such.

 

[Bricklayer]

Very good stats Brick. If we could now somehow add shots/rebounds-per-game averages (for and against the Kings) and relate that to the rest of the league (average) we could adjust those numbers to see the real value of our rpg's. I am afraid it would make Pedja and Cuttino look abysmal and Bibby and Miller at just average.

You know, I thought about that (although it would be a massive project), but the thing is because we a) shoot very well as a team; and b) don't defend very well as a team, I suspect that while we probably have more possessions than most teams because of our pace, a higher percentage of shots are going in on both sides of the floor and so the overall # of rebounds available is proabbly pretty much average.

 

[Bricklayer]

but without filters.. you can easily get skewed stats. if the sample is too small then you can get outlandish things like D. Harvey #1 with 21 RP/48 in 3 GP and 5.3 MPG, and Jamal Sampson with 18 RPG/48 in 14.3 MPG in 23 Games played. I don't know without Filters your getting very varied results, you should really get a filter that restricts certain things. Let's say you play 80% of your teams games and such.

You do get skewed stats for minor players, but it should balance out. For every Donnel Harvey ranked #1, there should be some schmuck grabbing none at all in his limited minutes and getting ranked #120 (or whatever).

In any case, I thought about eliminating anybody with less than 100 min this year, but it just would have been a lot of extra manual work (i know of no site with that sort of functionality) for only a small boost in accuracy.

 

[bigbadred00]

I don't know I think the Stats would be better if you let's say made a 15 minute per game cutoff and a minimum of lets say 75% of team games. Then it would actually matter. Whatever, just stats anyways. What we really need to work on is Team D on top of Rebounding. Boxing out wouldn't hurt either.

 

[Folsom Al]

Good Stuff Brick !!!

I was looking at the Defenseive Team Sortable Stats over at NBA.com.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/sortable_team_statistics/sortable2.html?cnf=1&prd=1

Your breakdown gives player stats, this one is by team. NBA.com doesn't really tell us a whole heckuva lot. Sac is #11 in rebounds.

As much as I cringe everytime I see our King's have a poor rebounding game, it doesn't bother as much as the POINTS-in-the-PAINT they give-up.

Oh sure, those allowed "offensive rebounds" in the final minutes off missed free-throws or missed shots are killers ... but, TO ME ... all those EASY POINTS during the game have a more negative impact.

Is there a way to see stats on POINTS ALLOWED IN THE PAINT ???

Just our of curiousity, are you a Contractor in Construction or is that nickname while playing b-ball (heh-heh) ???

 

[Bricklayer]

Alas the latter.

Wish it was something deep and profound, but really a fairly random choice when I signed up here years ago.

 

[bozzwell]

You know, I thought about that (although it would be a massive project), but the thing is because we a) shoot very well as a team; and b) don't defend very well as a team, I suspect that while we probably have more possessions than most teams because of our pace, a higher percentage of shots are going in on both sides of the floor and so the overall # of rebounds available is proabbly pretty much average.

I didn't think about that, that is a very good point. We do shoot well and allow high percentage to the opposition, too.

 

[bozzwell]

Alas the latter.

Wish it was something deep and profound, but really a fairly random choice when I signed up here years ago.

I always assumed as much. It takes one to know one as they say.

 

[LPKingsFan]

Good thread.

Are there any promising prospects for the Kings to get by the trade deadline or free agency this summer that manifest themselves in the list? Marshall comes to mind, but we aren't likely to move anyone for him that would come close to matching salaries. He is going to be a free agent, however. Anyone else stick out?

 

[quick dog]

Physical size and jumping ability are certainly key factors in a player's ability to gather rebounds, but isn't effort a big part of it? Would it be safe to reiterate that Peja is a significant part of the Kings' rebound-deficiency?

Is it not possible that Peja could put much more effort into rebounds? Why do you suppose that Peja has such an aversion to rebounding? Is he afraid to mix it up? Is he afraid of being injured?

 

[Folsom Al]

My Guess is ....

Physical size and jumping ability are certainly key factors in a player's ability to gather rebounds, but isn't effort a big part of it? Would it be safe to reiterate that Peja is a significant part of the Kings' rebound-deficiency?

Is it not possible that Peja could put much more effort into rebounds? Why do you suppose that Peja has such an aversion to rebounding? Is he afraid to mix it up? Is he afraid of being injured?

Coaching .... NO NOT ADELMAN ... but, how Peja was coached back in his years prior to coming to the NBA. Heck, he MAY HAVE NEVER been asked to rebound the ball .... "just shoot it and make it go in the hoop".

Remember, Petrie scouted Peja cause of his shooting abilities.

 

[bozzwell]

Just to spice it up, I quickly calculated rebounds per game and minutes per game (in brackets) for Pedja in other (then NBA) competitions:

With Yugoslavia/Serbia and Montenegro
2002 WBC in Indianapolis 5.33rpg (27.33mpg) 9 games
2000 Olympics 4.2rpg (25.00mpg) 5 games
2001 European Championship 3.5rpg (27.00mpg) 6 games


With his YU or Greek Clubs in European competitions:
Euroleague 1998 3.62rpg (35.8mpg) 16 games
Korac Cup 1997 4.8rpg (33.2mpg) 10 games
European Cup for Clubs 96 5.1rpg (33.20mpg) 13 games
European Championship for Clubs 95 5rpg (22 mpg) 13 games

(Note: my source is fiba.com. I did not search for his club records and statistics in national leagues for Greece and YU).

Is it safe to say that after he broke his leg he was always a poor rebounder except in Indy 2002?

 

[Folsom Al]

Well, there ya go ....

Just to spice it up, I quickly calculated rebounds per game and minutes per game (in brackets) for Pedja in other (then NBA) competitions:

With Yugoslavia/Serbia and Montenegro
2002 WBC in Indianapolis 5.33rpg (27.33mpg) 9 games
2000 Olympics 4.2rpg (25.00mpg) 5 games
2001 European Championship 3.5rpg (27.00mpg) 6 games


With his YU or Greek Clubs in European competitions:
Euroleague 1998 3.62rpg (35.8mpg) 16 games
Korac Cup 1997 4.8rpg (33.2mpg) 10 games
European Cup for Clubs 96 5.1rpg (33.20mpg) 13 games
European Championship for Clubs 95 5rpg (22 mpg) 13 games

(Note: my source is fiba.com. I did not search for his club records and statistics in national leagues for Greece and YU).

Is it safe to say that after he broke his leg he was always a poor rebounder except in Indy 2002?

Looks to me like his REBOUNDING #'S HAVE always BEEN LOW.
I'd be willing to bet his PPG AVG are 5-8 times higher.

 

[uolj]

The fact that the shooting guard and small forward spots are weak in rebounding I think makes the big men's rebounding inflated as well. There are no easy boards grabbed by little guys (calling Stojakovic little here) flying in to help, so all the gimmes are taken by Webber and Miller. I'm guessing that better small rebounders would show that Miller and Webber are really closer to average. As was said earlier, the Kings have nobody that can really compensate for other poor rebounders. No Rodman, Barkley, or Garnett to pick up the gimmes and come up with the tough ones.

 

[Bballkingsrock]

Nice stats you got there. Where did u find them?

 

[bozzwell]

Looks to me like his REBOUNDING #'S HAVE always BEEN LOW.
I'd be willing to bet his PPG AVG are 5-8 times higher.

His highest ppg was 23.0 during 2001 European Championships with the National team.

You can get into more details at fiba.com (select archives and the search by player - enter stojakovic as keyword). Here is the actual link:

http://www.fiba.com/pages/en/events/archive.asp?an_id=292&pn_id=178&

The odd numbers are all in 1995 10ppg and 5rpg in 22 minutes per game (13 games).

I also wouldn't take hsi numbers seriously when playing for national team. There are some easy games in the group stages of Olymics or WBC's and then 3-4 knockout games that are really intense and probably skew the numbers.

 

[piksi]

This is per 40 minutes not 48

 

[patrick204]

Basket avoidance

Given their size, smarts and hands, Brad and Chris should be pretty good rebounders, even if they don't jump much.

The deepest rebounding problem is that they often take off for the other half of the court after a missed Kings shot. Watch the basket and you will see no King anywhere near the basket on about 1/3 of our shots. We miss 1/2 of those and could hope to get 1/3 of the rebounds if we kept two guys ner the basket, so 1/6 of all our offensive rebounds are just thrown away. Another way to say this is that of 42 potential offensive rebounds per game, we concede 14 to the opponent uncontested. We could expect to get 4 of those if we stuck around. That's eight points a game guys. Very roughly. It would sure be nice to have those extra 8 points every game. What would our record be then?

 

[Padrino]

imo, the kings rebounding has improved (albeit not much) as the season progresses. but the kings most detrimental problem is lack of rebounding in the clutch. few of our players ever leap for rebounds, and none of our key rebounders have spectacular jumping ability. so, in the waning minutes of a game, when guys legs start to get tired, the kings have a lotta trouble pursuing boards. thats the trend i've noticed, at least...and i'm sure we've all noticed how much it hurt the kings last week.

 

[Folsom Al]

The deepest rebounding problem is that they often take off for the other half of the court after a missed Kings shot. Watch the basket and you will see no King anywhere near the basket on about 1/3 of our shots. We miss 1/2 of those and could hope to get 1/3 of the rebounds if we kept two guys ner the basket, so 1/6 of all our offensive rebounds are just thrown away. Another way to say this is that of 42 potential offensive rebounds per game, we concede 14 to the opponent uncontested. We could expect to get 4 of those if we stuck around. That's eight points a game guys. Very roughly. It would sure be nice to have those extra 8 points every game. What would our record be then?

Remember the "follow your shot drill" ???? Gawd I hated that, but we did it if we wanted coach to put us (tired or not). And when coach ask why you didn't follow that shot, you sure didn't say you were tired. I teach that "basic/fundamental" to the kids I coach. And you betcha' .... we get anywhere from 8-12 rebounds a game that we wouldn't have gotten.

B-Jax follows his shots .... so does Mo-Evans (not all the time).

 

[uolj]

The Kings transition defense is so poor that often they have to get a head start running back on defense and miss offensive rebound opportunities.

Also, the starters rarely head toward the hoop to grab a defensive rebound. They either stand their ground or leak out. The better rebounders off the bench are more athletic and energetic and actually come running in towards the opponents basket, which helps them grab more.

 

[HndsmCelt]

Remember the "follow your shot drill" ???? Gawd I hated that, but we did it if we wanted coach to put us (tired or not). And when coach ask why you didn't follow that shot, you sure didn't say you were tired. I teach that "basic/fundamental" to the kids I coach. And you betcha' .... we get anywhere from 8-12 rebounds a game that we wouldn't have gotten.

B-Jax follows his shots .... so does Mo-Evans (not all the time).

Funny you should mention this, as I was reading through the thread it occured to me that givne thier high shooting percentage the Kings have fewer rebounds to get... that will at least slightly skew the stat, but more importantly it also effects the "practice" of rebounding. I assume the Kings coaching staff has the guys doing all kinds of rebounding drills, but if you get used to the ball going in during game time it might be a lot harder to develop the habit of following the ball. Heck one of the Reasonins I think Rodman was such a great rebounder is all the hours of of practice he could give him self by following up his free throws (same for Shaq).

 

[Folsom Al]

Here's What Coach Said About That ...

but if you get used to the ball going in during game time it might be a lot harder to develop the habit of following the ball.

"Whether you make it or not, follow your shot .... " advise from Coach Laut

We didn't know why guys were running laps after the first few practices, after the season started. The rest of us figured they were probably messin' around during practice and coach wasn't happy with 'em. Well, after a couple of games and watching guys running laps after practice, we asked .... coach was keeping track of shots taken and whether-or-not that kid followed his shot. For each shot you took and didn't follow your shot .... you had to run 1 lap.

What he really wanted to see from us was taking at least 2-4 steps towards the rim. Don't stand there watching it like you just hit one "out of the park".

Coach Laut ..... wow, that's a stroll down memory lane.

Check this out .... http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v216/berwick_bucki/AllStarTeam.jpg

 

[HndsmCelt]

Talk about a bunch of guys looking for a hair cut... lol. Yeah no excuses I suppose just trying to make sense of what is such an obvious problem.

 

[KingKong]

Funny you should mention this, as I was reading through the thread it occured to me that givne thier high shooting percentage the Kings have fewer rebounds to get... that will at least slightly skew the stat, but more importantly it also effects the "practice" of rebounding. I assume the Kings coaching staff has the guys doing all kinds of rebounding drills, but if you get used to the ball going in during game time it might be a lot harder to develop the habit of following the ball. Heck one of the Reasonins I think Rodman was such a great rebounder is all the hours of of practice he could give him self by following up his free throws (same for Shaq).

All our staters also mostly play and take shots from 15- 20 feet away or more, so it's a little hard to follow your own shot from that distance. I agree that they should do that with missed layups or hookshots, but only guys like Mo Evans and Barnes and sometimes Webber really play near the basket are therefore good at following their shot and grabbing the "O" boards.