Probable Lottery picks in the 2021 Draft:

SacTownKid

Hall of Famer
#91
I think you're working from a different definition of intangibles than the rest of us. I use it to refer to things that can't be measured and/or don't directly show up on film but contribute to a winning culture. Things like: leadership, work ethic, attitude, wanting the ball in big moments, feel for the game etc.

That said, it sounds like the guys you'd like most in this draft are Jonathan Kuminga and Jalen Green. I like them too, but I'd take Cade Cunningham over them for sure.
Those are intangibles but the physical side lends itself to what you get out of those intangibles and that would be my concern. Like defensive effort or the desire to defend the other teams best player. Or the desire to be the man when the game is on the line. Or the ability to read defenses and find seams then effectively using them to help your team. That's all good and well but what you are capable of physically determines most of what you realistically get out of that area. I'm focusing more on the abilities in relation to those physical aspects because otherwise I don't see much of any other issues with him.

Here is an interesting article from the start of the analytics BS:

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/15/sports/basketball/15tech.html



I actually like Cade more than Kuminga to be honest. Kuminga and Green, I like Green in a lot of ways more than Kuminga because Kuminga looks like a bit of a tweener too.
 
#92
I still want Scottie Barnes if we're outside that top 4 (would have to think on him vs Suggs more). Everything in his profile screams an upper-echelon starter that can be a true star if he figures out a shot. Even with the shooting deficiency from 3pt and FT, he's still at a 52% TS this year. Not great, but not unplayable with everything else you're getting from him. Guys like Ben Simmons and Draymond Green (the only 2 real comparable skill-sets I see for him in the NBA. Should speak to how rare big wing creator/versatile switchy defenders are) have found a way to be stars without a good jumper or even having one in Simmons case. I think he has that sort of defensive upside where he's going to be able to stick 1-4 on defense and be one of your ball-handler/playmakers on offense.

He's not a good fit with Bagley, but who cares. As far as I'm concerned, Fox and Hali are the only 2 players locked into this team for 2+ years. Everything and everyone else should be on the table.
 

SacTownKid

Hall of Famer
#93
I still want Scottie Barnes if we're outside that top 4 (would have to think on him vs Suggs more). Everything in his profile screams an upper-echelon starter that can be a true star if he figures out a shot. Even with the shooting deficiency from 3pt and FT, he's still at a 52% TS this year. Not great, but not unplayable with everything else you're getting from him. Guys like Ben Simmons and Draymond Green (the only 2 real comparable skill-sets I see for him in the NBA. Should speak to how rare big wing creator/versatile switchy defenders are) have found a way to be stars without a good jumper or even having one in Simmons case. I think he has that sort of defensive upside where he's going to be able to stick 1-4 on defense and be one of your ball-handler/playmakers on offense.

He's not a good fit with Bagley, but who cares. As far as I'm concerned, Fox and Hali are the only 2 players locked into this team for 2+ years. Everything and everyone else should be on the table.
The upside on Barnes is unreal. He's also played almost every position this season at one point and not looked bad in any of them. I'd consider taking him at 1 if need be and let the chips fall if it was a risk to trade down too far. I'm hoping he looks terrible from here on out and doesn't show out in the tournament. If he gets a consistent jumper it's all over. Best 2 way prospect in the game.
 
#94
The upside on Barnes is unreal. He's also played almost every position this season at one point and not looked bad in any of them. I'd consider taking him at 1 if need be and let the chips fall if it was a risk to trade down too far. I'm hoping he looks terrible from here on out and doesn't show out in the tournament. If he gets a consistent jumper it's all over. Best 2 way prospect in the game.
Yeah, I'm extremely bullish on him too. I think outside the shot, I'm a little skeptical if he can be a lead offensive option scoring 20+ a game for a playoff team. But like you said, I think he'll immediately enter the NBA as one of the most versatile defenders (1-5 capability) and big wing playmaking will never not be valuable.

That's why I love him here though. He'll be able to maximize his skills without being thrust into a role where he has to carry a scoring role or even a large playmaking role right off the bat. He can start off with impacting the defensive end and slowly working up to his playmaking potential behind Fox/Hali
 

SacTownKid

Hall of Famer
#95
Yeah, I'm extremely bullish on him too. I think outside the shot, I'm a little skeptical if he can be a lead offensive option scoring 20+ a game for a playoff team. But like you said, I think he'll immediately enter the NBA as one of the most versatile defenders (1-5 capability) and big wing playmaking will never not be valuable.

That's why I love him here though. He'll be able to maximize his skills without being thrust into a role where he has to carry a scoring role or even a large playmaking role right off the bat. He can start off with impacting the defensive end and slowly working up to his playmaking potential behind Fox/Hali
That last game even though they lost where he was playing basically post up center was eye opening. He was going at bigs with ease and instead of just abusing them on face up, he was doing it on the inside! He could bust and yeah scoring wise it will probably depend on his role but my gosh, this is Giannis stuff from him at this young of an age. I'll take the bust possibilities for the boom ones he's got.
 
#96
I still want Scottie Barnes if we're outside that top 4 (would have to think on him vs Suggs more). Everything in his profile screams an upper-echelon starter that can be a true star if he figures out a shot. Even with the shooting deficiency from 3pt and FT, he's still at a 52% TS this year. Not great, but not unplayable with everything else you're getting from him. Guys like Ben Simmons and Draymond Green (the only 2 real comparable skill-sets I see for him in the NBA. Should speak to how rare big wing creator/versatile switchy defenders are) have found a way to be stars without a good jumper or even having one in Simmons case. I think he has that sort of defensive upside where he's going to be able to stick 1-4 on defense and be one of your ball-handler/playmakers on offense.

He's not a good fit with Bagley, but who cares. As far as I'm concerned, Fox and Hali are the only 2 players locked into this team for 2+ years. Everything and everyone else should be on the table.
He could just as easily be a Kyle Anderson. I think they're the same size in fact. Barnes rebounds at about half the rate as all those guys did in college as well. He's a better passer at the same age though.

I go back and forth on him. I wouldn't take him top 5 but if he's sitting there at 7 I'd probably go for it. He could potentially be a glue guy like Draymond or he could be a guy you have to specifically build the team around to cover for his shooting inefficiencies. Problem with this is the Kings can't build through FA so attempting to build a team like that is difficult. His numbers have non shooter written all over them so if you're taking him in hopes that he's going to become an average shooter, I think you're going to wind up on the losing side of that bet.

He's a risky pick but I'll take a player who makes the players around him better over a player who needs the players around him to make himself better.
 
#97
He could just as easily be a Kyle Anderson. I think they're the same size in fact. Barnes rebounds at about half the rate as all those guys did in college as well. He's a better passer at the same age though.

I go back and forth on him. I wouldn't take him top 5 but if he's sitting there at 7 I'd probably go for it. He could potentially be a glue guy like Draymond or he could be a guy you have to specifically build the team around to cover for his shooting inefficiencies. Problem with this is the Kings can't build through FA so attempting to build a team like that is difficult. His numbers have non shooter written all over them so if you're taking him in hopes that he's going to become an average shooter, I think you're going to wind up on the losing side of that bet.

He's a risky pick but I'll take a player who makes the players around him better over a player who needs the players around him to make himself better.
I watched him play the other day and did not really like his defense. Gave up straight line drive over straight line. If he isn’t a lock down defender I see no reason to draft him.
 
#98
I watched him play the other day and did not really like his defense. Gave up straight line drive over straight line. If he isn’t a lock down defender I see no reason to draft him.
His metrics are pretty good on that side of the court but I'll admit I haven't watched him play a full game so it's difficult to say either way.
 
#99
His metrics are pretty good on that side of the court but I'll admit I haven't watched him play a full game so it's difficult to say either way.
Yeah most of the draft reports say can be a good defender but I can’t tell if it’s due to his length or his production. He didn’t look great to me a tankathon has defensive win shares as a minus.
 
He could just as easily be a Kyle Anderson. I think they're the same size in fact. Barnes rebounds at about half the rate as all those guys did in college as well. He's a better passer at the same age though.

I go back and forth on him. I wouldn't take him top 5 but if he's sitting there at 7 I'd probably go for it. He could potentially be a glue guy like Draymond or he could be a guy you have to specifically build the team around to cover for his shooting inefficiencies. Problem with this is the Kings can't build through FA so attempting to build a team like that is difficult. His numbers have non shooter written all over them so if you're taking him in hopes that he's going to become an average shooter, I think you're going to wind up on the losing side of that bet.

He's a risky pick but I'll take a player who makes the players around him better over a player who needs the players around him to make himself better.
I mean I wouldn't want him to be Anderson obviously at 5, but I'm cool if we're calling that his floor; a playoff caliber level starter. Anderson has taken a huge leap for Memphis this year fwiw as he's finally been given some offensive usage for a good playmaker.

. Differ in that line of thinking that he's a risky pick. Think of him as a more lower risk/High-ceiling type of guy where I'm confident you're getting a quality starter and at the ceiling you're getting wing version of Draymond.
 
He could just as easily be a Kyle Anderson. I think they're the same size in fact. Barnes rebounds at about half the rate as all those guys did in college as well. He's a better passer at the same age though.

I go back and forth on him. I wouldn't take him top 5 but if he's sitting there at 7 I'd probably go for it. He could potentially be a glue guy like Draymond or he could be a guy you have to specifically build the team around to cover for his shooting inefficiencies. Problem with this is the Kings can't build through FA so attempting to build a team like that is difficult. His numbers have non shooter written all over them so if you're taking him in hopes that he's going to become an average shooter, I think you're going to wind up on the losing side of that bet.

He's a risky pick but I'll take a player who makes the players around him better over a player who needs the players around him to make himself better.
Athletically Anderson is much closer to Cade, I mean the dudes nickname is Slowmo, haha. Barnes has terrific size and foot speed in combination by comparison. Barnes also has the stride off of pick and roll that can be elite in the NBA. That 2 to 3 step potential. I'm not sure he has the glue abilities of Draymond since he's so young but the talent is much higher as a scorer. I think he can be a truer wing than Draymond ever showed. Dray did develop better wing skills and stepped away from the center spot over his college career which is why he found a spot in the league and his ability to still play center is huge. They have done some interesting things with Barnes in one season that somewhat mirror the development Draymond showed over 4 seasons. Barnes has quite literally done it all. He's played in almost every position and every way you can. Florida State guys have tricked people before, but he might finally be the player to break through and show their years of looking for those versatile combo F's might finally be paying off. If it's a shooting gamble I'd take it. If he gets a jumper he has superstar potential. If not, he's potentially a terrific two way player that can guard across multiple positions in a switch defense and run pick and roll.


Check the fastbreak at about 30 seconds in. That's Giannis stuff right there. As soon as he hits the 3 point arc it's a 3 step stride into the foul.
 
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Yeah most of the draft reports say can be a good defender but I can’t tell if it’s due to his length or his production. He didn’t look great to me a tankathon has defensive win shares as a minus.
He's 19. He's inconsistent but he shows major potential on that end and the length, strength, and his attitude are all very good signs for him. He's a bit more raw than some others but the tools are there for him.
 
Athletically Anderson is much closer to Cade, I mean the dudes nickname is Slowmo, haha. Barnes has terrific size and foot speed in combination by comparison. Barnes also has the stride off of pick and roll that can be elite in the NBA. That 2 to 3 step potential. I'm not sure he has the glue abilities of Draymond since he's so young but the talent is much higher as a scorer. I think he can be a truer wing than Draymond ever showed. Dray did develop better wing skills and stepped away from the center spot over his college career which is why he found a spot in the league and his ability to still play center is huge. They have done some interesting things with Barnes in one season that somewhat mirror the development Draymond showed over 4 seasons. Barnes has quite literally done it all. He's played in almost every position and every way you can. Florida State guys have tricked people before, but he might finally be the player to break through and show their years of looking for those versatile combo F's might finally be paying off. If it's a shooting gamble I'd take it. If he gets a jumper he has superstar potential. If not, he's potentially a terrific two way player that can guard across multiple positions in a switch defense and run pick and roll.


Check the fastbreak at about 30 seconds in. That's Giannis stuff right there. As soon as he hits the 3 point arc it's a 3 step stride into the foul.
yeah I watched that game and he gave up a ton a drives. Watch the Wagner analysis in the non lottery thread. I perhaps should have posted it here as I think he will be a lottery pick.
 
yeah I watched that game and he gave up a ton a drives. Watch the Wagner analysis in the non lottery thread. I perhaps should have posted it here as I think he will be a lottery pick.
And he had a lot of good moments too. You have to think potential and the differences between college and NBA defense. NBA defense right now requires a lot of the things he has available to him. The college game is much more reliant on help, you can reach in a little more, teams can sag on you. When he plays up and uses his feet and length he shows the potential he has. At his age he can be molded into a top notch switch defender.
 
And he had a lot of good moments too. You have to think potential and the differences between college and NBA defense. NBA defense right now requires a lot of the things he has available to him. The college game is much more reliant on help, you can reach in a little more, teams can sag on you. When he plays up and uses his feet and length he shows the potential he has. At his age he can be molded into a top notch switch defender.
perhaps but defense is as much about anticipation and length and I’m not sure he has it. Compare his film with Wagner who has great anticipation of the offensive players moves and passes. I have not seen enough of Barnes to say he doesn’t have it but I have not seen he has it either.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
I like Barnes quite a bit and if were picking in the 7/8/9 range, I'd have to consider him. My only concern with him is his shot. He's shooting around 29% from the three, and his free throw percentage isn't good either hovering in the 50's percentile. I see no comp with Anderson at all, other than height and passing ability. Barnes is twice the athlete and probably weighs 20 pounds more than Anderson did when he came into the league. At this point, if I'm going to gamble on a player I'd rather gamble on Usman Garuba, who also struggles with his outside shot, but is a better defender and and equal size, plus likely a better athlete.

I'm more inclined to go with more of a sure thing that perhaps doesn't have as much upside, but is more ready to contribute right away. Like Corey Kispert, Moses Moody, Ayo Dosunmu, and last but not least, if someone can light a fire under him, Jalen Johnson, who I think has the tools and skills to be a star in the NBA. He tends to disappear in games at times, but it's widely known that he didn't see eye to eye with coach K all the time. He would probably be one of the safest gambles out there, simply because he has such a high floor.

If you want to reach a bit, I would go with Kai Jones, who I love. He's very skilled for his age with his ball handling, passing and shooting for a 6'11" player. And, he's a very good athlete as well. Another small reach would be Greg Brown who I think has a lot of upside. And of course there's Franz Wagner, who I think is more skilled than his older brother, and a better athlete.

Not to single anyone out, but I can't tell you how ridiculous it sounds to me when someone seems to be passing judgement on a players defense because he allowed someone to come down the lane uncontested. Remember, these are 19 year old kids, in some cases, their 18 year old kids, and while you judge them on their current results, your also judging them on their future potential, as best you can. Some of these kids, especially one year removed from highschool, have never been asked to play defense before, which is why you see so many college teams play a zone. Keep it simple stupid defense.

So I would advise, look for what a player can do, not what he can't do. That's why I had Haliburton ranked so high last year. There wasn't much he couldn't do. Skill level will top athleticism almost all the time. That said, if you can get both, than you really have something. That's why I have Jalen Green ranked so high. He could end up being the best player out of this class in a few years.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
perhaps but defense is as much about anticipation and length and I’m not sure he has it. Compare his film with Wagner who has great anticipation of the offensive players moves and passes. I have not seen enough of Barnes to say he doesn’t have it but I have not seen he has it either.
I think Barnes is going to be a very good defensive player, and if he isn't, then he'll be a bust. I've seen nothing to indicate he won't be a good defender. Yeah, he makes the occasional mistake, but they all do if you watch them play enough.
 
I think Barnes is going to be a very good defensive player, and if he isn't, then he'll be a bust. I've seen nothing to indicate he won't be a good defender. Yeah, he makes the occasional mistake, but they all do if you watch them play enough.
I didn’t say definitively he won’t. Just that I saw him give up multiple straight line drives. It did not lead me to feel
I like Barnes quite a bit and if were picking in the 7/8/9 range, I'd have to consider him. My only concern with him is his shot. He's shooting around 29% from the three, and his free throw percentage isn't good either hovering in the 50's percentile. I see no comp with Anderson at all, other than height and passing ability. Barnes is twice the athlete and probably weighs 20 pounds more than Anderson did when he came into the league. At this point, if I'm going to gamble on a player I'd rather gamble on Usman Garuba, who also struggles with his outside shot, but is a better defender and and equal size, plus likely a better athlete.

I'm more inclined to go with more of a sure thing that perhaps doesn't have as much upside, but is more ready to contribute right away. Like Corey Kispert, Moses Moody, Ayo Dosunmu, and last but not least, if someone can light a fire under him, Jalen Johnson, who I think has the tools and skills to be a star in the NBA. He tends to disappear in games at times, but it's widely known that he didn't see eye to eye with coach K all the time. He would probably be one of the safest gambles out there, simply because he has such a high floor.

If you want to reach a bit, I would go with Kai Jones, who I love. He's very skilled for his age with his ball handling, passing and shooting for a 6'11" player. And, he's a very good athlete as well. Another small reach would be Greg Brown who I think has a lot of upside. And of course there's Franz Wagner, who I think is more skilled than his older brother, and a better athlete.

Not to single anyone out, but I can't tell you how ridiculous it sounds to me when someone seems to be passing judgement on a players defense because he allowed someone to come down the lane uncontested. Remember, these are 19 year old kids, in some cases, their 18 year old kids, and while you judge them on their current results, your also judging them on their future potential, as best you can. Some of these kids, especially one year removed from highschool, have never been asked to play defense before, which is why you see so many college teams play a zone. Keep it simple stupid defense.

So I would advise, look for what a player can do, not what he can't do. That's why I had Haliburton ranked so high last year. There wasn't much he couldn't do. Skill level will top athleticism almost all the time. That said, if you can get both, than you really have something. That's why I have Jalen Green ranked so high. He could end up being the best player out of this class in a few years.
Haha not to single anyone out but apparently you did anyway. From the game I saw I didn’t like his defense but I also only saw one game. I’ve seen mixed reviews on his defensive ability. And yes I was looking at what he can do in terms of defense.

in Barnes case, if he is a top defensive player you can overlook his shooting. If not, I’m not sure where he fits especially on the Kings.
 
I didn’t say definitively he won’t. Just that I saw him give up multiple straight line drives. It did not lead me to feel


Haha not to single anyone out but apparently you did anyway. From the game I saw I didn’t like his defense but I also only saw one game. I’ve seen mixed reviews on his defensive ability. And yes I was looking at what he can do in terms of defense.

in Barnes case, if he is a top defensive player you can overlook his shooting. If not, I’m not sure where he fits especially on the Kings.
The kings are just the team to take a guy with potential and ensure he squanders every last bit of it too. Sorry, I don’t have much faith in us helping young talent find their way and I’m pretty sure that’s where a lot of us are at this point.
 
The kings are just the team to take a guy with potential and ensure he squanders every last bit of it too. Sorry, I don’t have much faith in us helping young talent find their way and I’m pretty sure that’s where a lot of us are at this point.
We always say that's the case but there are almost no cases of Kings players going elsewhere and becoming really good players after floundering here. I think talent is going to show itself whether the coach or the franchise is any good or not. Haliburton has done just fine despite all these things.
 
The kings are just the team to take a guy with potential and ensure he squanders every last bit of it too. Sorry, I don’t have much faith in us helping young talent find their way and I’m pretty sure that’s where a lot of us are at this point.
Rico Hines is considered by most to be the best trainer in the NBA. If he can't develop players, then they probably aren't ready to improve.
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
The kings are just the team to take a guy with potential and ensure he squanders every last bit of it too. Sorry, I don’t have much faith in us helping young talent find their way and I’m pretty sure that’s where a lot of us are at this point.
That was pre-Rico though. The one thing that the Vlade regime did that was an outright success was their emphasis on the player development department with Rico, Bobby Jackson, Plastic Man, and Lindsey Harding all almost operating as an independent player factory arm of the team than part of Luke's coaching staff.
 
perhaps but defense is as much about anticipation and length and I’m not sure he has it. Compare his film with Wagner who has great anticipation of the offensive players moves and passes. I have not seen enough of Barnes to say he doesn’t have it but I have not seen he has it either.
Barnes is insanely long.
 
Barnes is insanely long.
Yeah I get it. He has the physical tools to be great but that is only part of the game. It’s not just the physical tools that matter. One reason I think Vlade drafted so poorly is he ignored the mental side. When you have a high IQ it can often seem so easy anyone can see it but things don’t work that way.

I don’t know that Barnes doesn’t have it but I have not seen it in the one game I watched nor have I seen it called out like it is in some others.
 
Yeah I get it. He has the physical tools to be great but that is only part of the game. It’s not just the physical tools that matter. One reason I think Vlade drafted so poorly is he ignored the mental side. When you have a high IQ it can often seem so easy anyone can see it but things don’t work that way.

I don’t know that Barnes doesn’t have it but I have not seen it in the one game I watched nor have I seen it called out like it is in some others.
These aren't just typical physical gifts with Barnes and they still coincide with clear skill and untapped potential. That's fairly significant, especially for a point forward with his pick and roll potential in a league where that matters almost more than any other skill. He could bust but again, the boom potential to me is worth the gamble IMO.
 
These aren't just typical physical gifts with Barnes and they still coincide with clear skill and untapped potential. That's fairly significant, especially for a point forward with his pick and roll potential in a league where that matters almost more than any other skill. He could bust but again, the boom potential to me is worth the gamble IMO.
He is certainly worth watching in the NCAA playoffs and tournament against better players. But so is Wagner, Kispert and others in that range.
 
He is certainly worth watching in the NCAA playoffs and tournament against better players. But so is Wagner, Kispert and others in that range.
I hate to say I hope he fails but I do. His potential is much greater at the NBA level and if he shows out at the college level he won't last to anywhere near the Kings likely eventual pick, haha.
 
I hate to say I hope he fails but I do. His potential is much greater at the NBA level and if he shows out at the college level he won't last to anywhere near the Kings likely eventual pick, haha.
well it is unlikely he goes before the top 5. Most draft analysts I have listened to say the top 5 are at one level and then a sharp drop off to 6. 6 to 12 are all in the same range.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
I didn’t say definitively he won’t. Just that I saw him give up multiple straight line drives. It did not lead me to feel


Haha not to single anyone out but apparently you did anyway. From the game I saw I didn’t like his defense but I also only saw one game. I’ve seen mixed reviews on his defensive ability. And yes I was looking at what he can do in terms of defense.

in Barnes case, if he is a top defensive player you can overlook his shooting. If not, I’m not sure where he fits especially on the Kings.
When I said that Garuba was a better defender than Barnes, that was not to imply that Barnes was a bad defender, only that Garuba was better. I also said that I thought that Garuba might be the best defender in the draft. Barnes is by no means my first or second or etc choice for the Kings, but I think you have to consider him depending on where were picking. But he would be one of many.