Predict the Opening Day Starting Line Up and Rotation
- Thread starter ockingsfan
- Start date
I think a lot of people are posting what they want to see, not what they really expect to happen.
Considering our coach, considering we are not going to just develop the youth and ignore the elephants in the room.
PG Fox, Yogi, Mason
SG Bogi, Hield(6th man may play some at SF or with dual SG), Shump, Ben
SF Bjelica, Jackson, Shump, Ben
PF Randolph (sits out every 4 games or so) then Bjelica starts here and Jackson starts at 3, Bagley, Giles or WCS with the other at 5, Skal
C WCS, Koufos, Giles, Davis
If the roster doesn't change I expect Ben or Davis to be moved or waived.
I expect as the season goes on Jackson plays less and less and Shump more. If Bagley looks good Randolph will play less.
Giles and Skal hardly play early on.
Considering our coach, considering we are not going to just develop the youth and ignore the elephants in the room.
PG Fox, Yogi, Mason
SG Bogi, Hield(6th man may play some at SF or with dual SG), Shump, Ben
SF Bjelica, Jackson, Shump, Ben
PF Randolph (sits out every 4 games or so) then Bjelica starts here and Jackson starts at 3, Bagley, Giles or WCS with the other at 5, Skal
C WCS, Koufos, Giles, Davis
If the roster doesn't change I expect Ben or Davis to be moved or waived.
I expect as the season goes on Jackson plays less and less and Shump more. If Bagley looks good Randolph will play less.
Giles and Skal hardly play early on.
I don’t believe there is a strong chance Zach starts. He’s been a negative advanced stats wise for a few years, is aging, and doesn’t fit with the starting unit or play style. I’m assuming last year they didn’t want to throw Fox into the fire, but if we still see a high post offense through Zach this year, yeah, someone shouldn’t be employed
Fox started 60/73 games last year. He would have started every game but we had at the time signed our highest profile free agent in years. Bagley is Vlades guy.
I think theres a small chance that Randolph starts over him at the beginning of the season, I anticipate 15-20 games in at the worst is when Bagley will get the nod.
IF I had to guess
WCS/Giles/Koufos
Randolph/Bagley/Skal
Bjelica/Shump/Jackson
Bogdan/Hield/
Fox/Yogi/Mason
Mason, Skal, and Jackson get DNP's. Leaving us with an 11 man rotation to start the year.
I think theres a small chance that Randolph starts over him at the beginning of the season, I anticipate 15-20 games in at the worst is when Bagley will get the nod.
IF I had to guess
WCS/Giles/Koufos
Randolph/Bagley/Skal
Bjelica/Shump/Jackson
Bogdan/Hield/
Fox/Yogi/Mason
Mason, Skal, and Jackson get DNP's. Leaving us with an 11 man rotation to start the year.
While it isn't the same as a game, it still accomplishes the main goal of the coach. To learn the offense and defense.
Fans are always getting on Coach for playing vets, but this is common practice for most coaches. They know that the vets have experience and know where they are supposed to be throughout the flow of the game. Young players tend to get lost (even when they have more talent).
Giles was able to gain a lot of experience by practicing and scrimmaging with the team all season. Games are still different, I think it will be enough to give him the nod as a starter.
Fans are always getting on Coach for playing vets, but this is common practice for most coaches. They know that the vets have experience and know where they are supposed to be throughout the flow of the game. Young players tend to get lost (even when they have more talent).
Giles was able to gain a lot of experience by practicing and scrimmaging with the team all season. Games are still different, I think it will be enough to give him the nod as a starter.
What I think should be (and likely will be) a key factor is what players mesh well with whom. I know Brad Stevens has his analytics guys looking at pairs and triples that play well together. To do this analysis as best as possible with limited data I went to NBA.com Stats and looked at King's players scoring for 48 min and efficiency for 48 min when on and off with another player. Here is what I saw:
Pair.png shows who plays well with whom
Kosta and Buddy play well together, Bogdan and Skal play well together. Frank plays well with Zbo and Kosta but Frank plays poorly with Bogdan and Justin. Fox plays well with Kosta and Justin but poorly with ZBo. Willie plays well with another big that can stretch the floor
Player Impact.png
Not what I expected at all. Skal has the highest positive impact and Bogdan has the lowest. Not sure how to explain this data. My best guess is the team plays better with a big can play out. Bogdan plays best not running the floor with other athletes but in a half court high IQ setting.
With that in mind I expect Beli, Bogi and Giles will want to spend time together. If we can defend, then adding Fox and Skal to this group might be interesting. Bogdan and Willie show an increase in efficiency when playing together though a slight dip in points per 48 min. Fox and Buddy clearly like playing off Kosta.
I see the following line-ups:
Starters: Giles, WCS, Beli, Bogdan, Fox
First Sub: Kosta for Giles, Bagley for WCS, Buddy for Bogdan
Second Sub: Jackson for Beli, Frank for Fox
Pair.png shows who plays well with whom
Kosta and Buddy play well together, Bogdan and Skal play well together. Frank plays well with Zbo and Kosta but Frank plays poorly with Bogdan and Justin. Fox plays well with Kosta and Justin but poorly with ZBo. Willie plays well with another big that can stretch the floor
Player Impact.png
Not what I expected at all. Skal has the highest positive impact and Bogdan has the lowest. Not sure how to explain this data. My best guess is the team plays better with a big can play out. Bogdan plays best not running the floor with other athletes but in a half court high IQ setting.
With that in mind I expect Beli, Bogi and Giles will want to spend time together. If we can defend, then adding Fox and Skal to this group might be interesting. Bogdan and Willie show an increase in efficiency when playing together though a slight dip in points per 48 min. Fox and Buddy clearly like playing off Kosta.
I see the following line-ups:
Starters: Giles, WCS, Beli, Bogdan, Fox
First Sub: Kosta for Giles, Bagley for WCS, Buddy for Bogdan
Second Sub: Jackson for Beli, Frank for Fox
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I am trying to wrap my mind around what this data actually means, or whether it actually means anything. my thoughts on this are not actually formed, I am just kind of thinking aout loud. for example, take Buddy/Kosta pair. does this mean Buddy and Kosta play well off eachother, or does it mean that when we have a good screen setter and a shooter on the floor the offense creates a good shot for a shooter and good opportunities for the screener as the shooter has to be covered? For example, a playmaker, Bogi/Fox/Mason would use a good screen to initiate the offense and get the defense moving and out of position gaining an advantage which would eventually, with execution, result in a good shot for the shooter ie Buddy. or does it mean Buddy palys pick and roll with Kosta and they play well off eachother?
I agree. I am still forming thoughts on the data myself and some legitimate questions exist on methodology choices.
1) I choose to use per 48 data versus per game. In my opinion, it normalized the data but you could make a legitimate argument per game (or some other choice) would be better.
2) I excluded players not on the team going forward. I know this skewed the data and I was going to rectify it prior my dealings with another poster. Bogdan in particular was hurt by this choice as he had a huge positive with Vince and a strong positive with Garrett.
As to your question example, I’m not sure it’s an either-or. Buddy plays well with a good screen setter, Kosta sets good screens, ergo Buddy and Kosta tend to complement each other’s games. But another good screen setter may also.
To me the most interesting one is Skal and potential impact of Beli. Skal’s high positive impact would perhaps indicate the large positive impact of having a stretch 4 on the court for this group of players. Beli could deliver that as a hi IQ shooting big. As I mentioned a Giles, Bogdan, Beli pairing could be really strong. The question is who further complements that group.
1) I choose to use per 48 data versus per game. In my opinion, it normalized the data but you could make a legitimate argument per game (or some other choice) would be better.
2) I excluded players not on the team going forward. I know this skewed the data and I was going to rectify it prior my dealings with another poster. Bogdan in particular was hurt by this choice as he had a huge positive with Vince and a strong positive with Garrett.
As to your question example, I’m not sure it’s an either-or. Buddy plays well with a good screen setter, Kosta sets good screens, ergo Buddy and Kosta tend to complement each other’s games. But another good screen setter may also.
To me the most interesting one is Skal and potential impact of Beli. Skal’s high positive impact would perhaps indicate the large positive impact of having a stretch 4 on the court for this group of players. Beli could deliver that as a hi IQ shooting big. As I mentioned a Giles, Bogdan, Beli pairing could be really strong. The question is who further complements that group.
Right, so if the data is reflective of Buddy playing well with good screen setters, then that would imply that Bogdan does not play well with good screen setters? but my eye test tells me that Bogdan uses screens well, probably better than Buddy. so either my eye test is wrong or the data is measuring something else, etc...maybe using only 2 players in this type of analysis or with this amount of data does not really work..
hopefully Skal improves his 3pt shooting even further. i would put Buddy out there with those 3 (giles, bogdan, bjelica) to strech the floor even more. not sure what that would do to our defense though...
hopefully Skal improves his 3pt shooting even further. i would put Buddy out there with those 3 (giles, bogdan, bjelica) to strech the floor even more. not sure what that would do to our defense though...
Yeah that surprised me too. I expected to see a positive impact for Bogdan and Willie as an example. But the data doesn’t show that.
I think you are on to a valid point that the data is limited in nature. It doesn’t account for 3 way impacts or the fact that Bogdan and Willie may play against starters while Mason and Willie may play against scrubs. So the data clearly isn’t definitive. But in a slow time is does make for some interesting discussion.
I think you are on to a valid point that the data is limited in nature. It doesn’t account for 3 way impacts or the fact that Bogdan and Willie may play against starters while Mason and Willie may play against scrubs. So the data clearly isn’t definitive. But in a slow time is does make for some interesting discussion.