Our Remaining Schedule, George Karl's History, And the Fate of Our Draft Pick

[hrdboild]

So let me ask you, do you think this franchise can afford to wait another x years for a POTENTIAL draft pick to pan out and make an impact? The support for this franchise will grow EXPONENTIALLY if we make WINNING NOW our priority as opposed to being satisfied with mediocrity or a good draft pick. Our goal is to have this team make the playoffs and compete on a consistent basis while playing in our brand new arena. Proven players in this league are going to help this team, and if you really believe the draft is our savior, ultimately that makes you accept losing and that's exactly the mentality we cannot have as an organization.

Why is it so hard to understand that you don't have to keep the pick and draft a teenager for the pick to be useful? I've said this so many times already I can only conclude that people don't want to think outside of their comfortable little "win=good" dogma, but we have nothing to trade currently for a PF that's better than Jason Thompson. If we keep the pick we are a player in the trade market. Without it we're looking at losing Ben or Rudy to acquire a talented defensive PF and I don't think we can afford to lose either.

It doesn't even matter. The team is going to win however many games as it wins. What gets me is that you won't even acknowledge that we'd be vastly better off keeping the pick. Ask any GM in the league behind closed doors if they'd rather have the pick or a "strong finish to the season" and I bet all of them would admit they want the pick. You want to be a superfan, fine. Give yourself a pat on the back. Congrats. I like George Karl and I hope he can turn it around soon. There was zero reason not to hire him in December if we're not even going to get a draft pick out of this debacle. If this is the new plan, I'm now actively campaigning for these bumbling lunatics to be fired ASAP.

 

[hrdboild]

Cleveland gave away their top pick to win this year.

Actually, no. They traded it for Kevin Love. Call me crazy but I think that has something to do with their record this year.

 

[VF21]

Thanks for the offer - but I'd prefer just a friendly wager - no in-your-face avatar shenanigans - just a test of our predictive capabilities.
And I'm waiting for Brickmaster to reply to the bet first.

Well, this is disheartening. I truly thought you'd step up and take the bet. You guys could always agree to let me arbitrate the avatar - you know, to make sure it's in good taste and not over-the-top.

 

[VF21]

What do you guys think about having the bench play a lot of minutes and developing them? The bench as a whole isn't that good right now, so by playing them, we simultaneously: 1) develop the bench, 2) increase our chances of getting the draft pick. Of course, the starters need their minutes; but its up to the coach to find a good balance.

I think those are the kinds of decisions we're going to see George Karl make.

 

[Livinthedream]

Actually, no. They traded it for Kevin Love. Call me crazy but I think that has something to do with their record this year.

That was my point.

 

[Section 101]

It wasn't the 10 (keep) 11 (lose) cutoff, he was correcting you on, but rather that the results of the lottery could affect draft pick position independent of record (to some extent). It was a very Capt.esque nit he was picking. (I would say Slimesque as well, but he's less interested in draft stuff so he wouldn't necessarily pick it.)

His post is basing it the teams record. In order to guarantee keeping the pick they have to have the 7th worst record not the 10th. Three teams can still jump them in the lottery dropping the pick to #10. And just cause they have record 11-16 doesn't mean they lose the pick if it's 1-3.

So I'm saying getting the #10 worst record still has a good chance of losing the pick anyways.

 

[IfAt1st]

Well, this is disheartening. I truly thought you'd step up and take the bet. You guys could always agree to let me arbitrate the avatar - you know, to make sure it's in good taste and not over-the-top.

Hey, I'm fine with that bet, if you want some extra skin in the game - maybe that'd be more fun for all?
I was mostly wanting to square off against Brick, since I think we both detailed the reasons why the team may do what we each think it will do.

John Galt - if you want to do the avatar bet - I'm fine with that - with one modification:
It is more fair if we have equal chance, so I'm betting that the Kings will have 14 or less wins through the end of the season, you are betting that they will have 16 or more wins, and if they win 15, it's a tie.

Sound good?

 

[hrdboild]

That was my point.

Maybe I'm dense, but are you implying that Cleveland trading two first overall picks for Kevin Love is in some way analogous to us giving away our pick to Chicago for nothing so that we can start a culture of winning in a losing season? They didn't just decide to start winning, they signed the best player in the game aa a free agent in the same off-season that they won the draft lottery. If anything, their success right now reinforces my point about how badly we need that pick to be competitive next year.

 

[John Galt]

Hey, I'm fine with that bet, if you want some extra skin in the game - maybe that'd be more fun for all?
I was mostly wanting to square off against Brick, since I think we both detailed the reasons why the team may do what we each think it will do.

John Galt - if you want to do the avatar bet - I'm fine with that - with one modification:
It is more fair if we have equal chance, so I'm betting that the Kings will have 14 or less wins through the end of the season, you are betting that they will have 16 or more wins, and if they win 15, it's a tie.

Sound good?

wait what?

....Further, I wager the Kings will not have a .500 record in their remaining games.

Your modification doesn't make it "more fair". I don't think you'll find a bookie in the world who would establish the Kings over/under at 15 wins the rest of the way. I'm already a huge dog.

But, with that said... "you're on".

An injury will seal it for you - but maybe a "win now" trade will seal it for me. It will be fun.

VF21 will arbitrate appropriateness. For example an avatar that mocks the prophet, or a controversial political/religious statement, or a violent image would not be allowed.

 

[bajaden]

I understand the times when it's best for a team's future to tank. But (1) this is not one of those times and (2) even when I understand the logic of it, I can't root for the Kings to lose games.

I would absolutely love to see the Kings get Willie Cauley-Stein. If that is possible due to keeping their draft pick then fine. If they don't keep their pick but can somehow make a trade to get him, that's fine too. But the more I watch him the more I see the ideal PF to slot next to Boogie. I'm not sure there's a major prospect that does more for his team.

I would also like Karl Towns. He brings more offense, but is still a shotblocking defender. When you consider where he is right now as a player, and a freshman, and compare that to where Cauley-Stein was at the same time, he would be hard to pass up. Not likely we would have the chance to pass him up unless we get lucky and win the lottery, but if so, I think he would have to be considered. However, I'l take Cauley-Stein anytime anywhere. Great defender. I can't remember a big man who was capable of defending a PG on the perimeter and still capable of getting back to the basket to block a shot by a big man like Stein can.

 

[bajaden]

If the team could win 50% of its remaining games, it would exceed expectations. I seriously doubt that Karl can come in, wave his magic wand, and instantly turn this team around. So with 30 games left, I think winning 15 games would be a big positive. Having said that, and having looked at the schedule, I doubt that we can win 15 of the remaining games. Even if we could, we would end the season with 33 wins and 49 losses, and I doubt that would cause us to lose our draft pick. I'm not as caught up in this, we have to lose the pick in order to have more flexibility in trades. The pick is tradable, you just have to wait till you've drafted. No big deal. You want to make a trade, you draft the player the other team wants and Wa La, done deal.

After next season, if for some reason we would retain it, which I doubt would happen with Karl at the helm, it reverts to a second round pick. So problem solved. For those that don't value draft picks, and think that their better off used as trade assets, there is value in that capacity, but always remember that just about every player in the NBA was drafted. Cousins was drafted. Had we traded that pick for a proven veteran, we wouldn't have the best big man in the NBA. But we would be having discussions on who we could trade to acquire him. When we draft a player, we need to keep him, develop him, and most of all, have patience with him. That player isn't responsible for the plight of the team, but in the future, he may part of the answer to correct what's wrong with the team. My point is, its not an either/or situation with draft picks.

 

[206Fan]

If the team could win 50% of its remaining games, it would exceed expectations. I seriously doubt that Karl can come in, wave his magic wand, and instantly turn this team around. So with 30 games left, I think winning 15 games would be a big positive. Having said that, and having looked at the schedule, I doubt that we can win 15 of the remaining games. Even if we could, we would end the season with 33 wins and 49 losses, and I doubt that would cause us to lose our draft pick. I'm not as caught up in this, we have to lose the pick in order to have more flexibility in trades. The pick is tradable, you just have to wait till you've drafted. No big deal. You want to make a trade, you draft the player the other team wants and Wa La, done deal.

After next season, if for some reason we would retain it, which I doubt would happen with Karl at the helm, it reverts to a second round pick. So problem solved. For those that don't value draft picks, and think that their better off used as trade assets, there is value in that capacity, but always remember that just about every player in the NBA was drafted. Cousins was drafted. Had we traded that pick for a proven veteran, we wouldn't have the best big man in the NBA. But we would be having discussions on who we could trade to acquire him. When we draft a player, we need to keep him, develop him, and most of all, have patience with him. That player isn't responsible for the plight of the team, but in the future, he may part of the answer to correct what's wrong with the team. My point is, its not an either/or situation with draft picks.

I think in regards to the draft, a lot of people want a Lebron James or Demarcus Cousins. Someone who comes in during his first year and plays incredible. We all know that's not realistic for most draftees. I think that's whys some fans continue to dislike the Stauskas pick and want the team to lose the pick. Prospects all need to develop. I think fans aren't used to it because of how our organization was run when the Magoofs sudden went cheap. Peja developed very well under our wing

 

[bajaden]

So let me ask you, do you think this franchise can afford to wait another x years for a POTENTIAL draft pick to pan out and make an impact? The support for this franchise will grow EXPONENTIALLY if we make WINNING NOW our priority as opposed to being satisfied with mediocrity or a good draft pick. Our goal is to have this team make the playoffs and compete on a consistent basis while playing in our brand new arena. Proven players in this league are going to help this team, and if you really believe the draft is our savior, ultimately that makes you accept losing and that's exactly the mentality we cannot have as an organization.

You act like drafting a player automatically prevents you from acquiring players through free agency. One has nothing to do with the other, unless your using the player you just drafted as part of the trade. I'm not advocating that we tank, but I'am advocating being realistic. I think 500 basketball is optimistic, and if we can accomplish that, we'll probably still have our pick. More than anything else, what I'm looking for is a change in how the team plays. I want to see the beginning of a foundation for next season. Were not making the playoffs this year!! We've dug too deep a hole at this point. Seriously, if we won every game we have left, we'd still only have 48 wins, and I'm not sure that would get us the final spot in the west. So can we be realistic here? Wouldn't it be better to have the team finish on a strong note. Show signs of being a playoff team next season, and still retain our pick. Isn't that better than winning just enough games to lose the pick and end up with nothing to show for it?

You talk about acquiring proven players. Well just how do you go about acquiring them. We'll have a little cap room, about 8 or 9 mil when I last checked. Keeping our pick isn't going to change that. Other than that, we would have to trade for those players your talking about. Who do we trade, and for who. Don't just give me emotional abstract answers. Tell me how we acquire the needed proven players. At this point in time, we don't have a lot of resources, and losing the pick, is one less resource. Whether you keep and develop the pick, or you draft and trade the pick, I would think its a resource you would want to keep, if it works out that way. I'm sorry, I'm not for any moral victories just to make you or anyone else happy. If we make the playoffs next season, and were competing for the western conference championship in three years, no one will remember what our record is this season, but they just might remember who we drafted.

 

[bajaden]

What's your source? Mine had it at #10 this year, but that's certainly not something I was sure of beforehand.

Section 101 is correct. I believe the Warriors were in that situation last season or the season before when they were sitting something like 7th or 8th, and if they moved back one spot they would lost the pick. So they sat through the lottery hoping no team behind them jumped up ahead of them. By the same token, if we were to finish 12 lets say, and in the lottery we jumped into the top three, we would then retain our pick. So that said, if we end up at 10, we would have to pray that no team behind us jumped into the top three, which would push us into the 11th spot where we would lost the pick.. So your right about the 10th spot, but 101 is right about the lottery possibly changing our position for the worse, or the better.

 

[randymoss1881]

We will be picking 7-10 so let's keep the top 3 players out of this. We will pick a guy who can play multiple positions and plays minimal defense. I put money down if we keep the pick we will draft Kevon Loony from ucla. I'd personally pick WCS

 

[Glenn]

To tack a little bit on the end of bajaden's note, I think it is very important for our team to go into the summer looking forward to the next season. Winning now would help create that attitude. I want the guys working on the parts of their game that needs work with the idea that this improvement will help a team that will win a lot under Karl.

 

[randymoss1881]

http://basketball.realgm.com/analys...-And-The-Two-Way-College-Basketball-Superstar

 

[bajaden]

I think in regards to the draft, a lot of people want a Lebron James or Demarcus Cousins. Someone who comes in during his first year and plays incredible. We all know that's not realistic for most draftees. I think that's whys some fans continue to dislike the Stauskas pick and want the team to lose the pick. Prospects all need to develop. I think fans aren't used to it because of how our organization was run when the Magoofs sudden went cheap. Peja developed very well under our wing

I pointed out the comparisons between McLemore and Peja their first two years. Bricky brought up the per's and he was right, however I think one has to remember that Peja played professional ball in europe since he was 16 years old, and he still struggled his first year. Most players do. They think they're ready, but until they get on the court and feel the physicality and speed of the NBA, they really don't understand. That's what Stauskas is going through right now.

I remember the first time I faced a major league pitcher with a legit curve ball and fast ball. His name was Von McDaniel, younger brother of Lindy McDaniel who was on the St. Louis Cardinals. The dude struck me out all four times I batted against him. I was emotionally crushed, and I remember thinking at the time, that if this is what the major leagues is like, I might as well hang it up right now and find another line of work. But I didn't! I adjusted, and changed my approach. And the next time I went one for four against him and put the ball in play three of the four times I batted. The dude was nasty though. A couple of years later he went something like nine and one, and took a no hitter into the eighth before giving up a hit, Next game out he toasted his arm and his career ended. Damm shame.

 

[bajaden]

We will be picking 7-10 so let's keep the top 3 players out of this. We will pick a guy who can play multiple positions and plays minimal defense. I put money down if we keep the pick we will draft Kevon Loony from ucla. I'd personally pick WCS

Not sure we'll have a shot at Cauley-Stein unless we get lucky and move into the top three, or we end up in the 5th or 6th spot. But you never know. I would draft Myles Turner before Looney. Looney's probably a little better athlete, but Turner is more skilled, a true shotblocker, and overall, taller and bigger than Looney. I'd take Woods from UNLV over Looney as well, even though Looney is ranked higher. There are a lot of very good defensive players in this draft. Justise Winslow is a very good defensive player, as is Stanley Johnson, who reminds me a lot of a young Ron Artest, without the craziness. I can pretty much tell you who the top four picks will be. Maybe not the order, but as of today, it will be Okafor, Russell, Towns, and Mudiay. It would be hard to pass on Okafor if you had the first pick, which begs the question, what would Philly do if they end up with the pick. They've drafted a PF and a Center in the last two drafts. I see a possible deal for someone.

 

[rainmaker]

Who?! As much as the draft has become a broken record, so has this idea that we're somehow going to find an impact veteran who wants to play in Sacramento. The last (and only) time that happened was Vlade Divac signing with us 15 years ago. Everybody here thinks this roster needs more talent. Realistically, how are we going to make that happen? The class of players you can potentially acquire from other teams goes up about 3 levels if you have a top 10 pick you can throw into the mix and it goes up about 10 levels if it turns out to be a top 3 pick. Barring injuries, this is probably the last top 10 pick we'll ever have in the DeMarcus Cousins era. I think we should make it count.

It won't be easy. We won't be a top destination. The idiots in our FO will give FAs a reason to pause. However, don't underestimate the power having a George Karl paired with the top center in the game can have, especially if we finish out strong from this point on. It does give us a fighting chance and we don't need true impact vets, we need a couple who can offer some leadership, fill their roles well as support players and help in changing the culture. And this summer there's going to be a fair amount of free agent activity.

And a number of guys on this list with player options I see opting out, they aren't in good situations.

http://hoopshype.com/free_agency_2015.htm

 

[funkykingston]

Maybe not the order, but as of today, it will be Okafor, Russell, Towns, and Mudiay. It would be hard to pass on Okafor if you had the first pick, which begs the question, what would Philly do if they end up with the pick. They've drafted a PF and a Center in the last two drafts. I see a possible deal for someone.

Well, given Hinkie's track record so far I think he'll take the top rated talent on his board regardless. His MO right now just seems to be talent/asset accumulation. Keeps swinging until you hit a homerun with a star talent. Okafor/Embiid/Noel is a somewhat odd front court rotation (same with Towns or WCS in place of Okafor) but right now I don't think Philly's focus is on building a balanced roster.

And if that guy happens to be Mudiay or Russell I don't think he blinks. Russell could probably play with MCW but I think Hinkie would be very willing to trade Carter-Williams too.

 

[HereWeBoogie]

We will be picking 7-10 so let's keep the top 3 players out of this. We will pick a guy who can play multiple positions and plays minimal defense. I put money down if we keep the pick we will draft Kevon Loony from ucla. I'd personally pick WCS

well we probably won't be picking at all. it wouldn't be hard to end up outside of the bottom 10. theres a few pretty terrible teams our there with records right around ours.

we still play the Sixers 2 times, Lakers 2 times, and some other lousy teams.

AND if we do end up in the bottom 10, we are probably more likely to trade the pick than keep it

 

[pshn80]

All very interesting. Let's play each game to win. Keep it simple and honest. And let's hope we enjoy it all.

 

[bajaden]

Well, given Hinkie's track record so far I think he'll take the top rated talent on his board regardless. His MO right now just seems to be talent/asset accumulation. Keeps swinging until you hit a homerun with a star talent. Okafor/Embiid/Noel is a somewhat odd front court rotation (same with Towns or WCS in place of Okafor) but right now I don't think Philly's focus is on building a balanced roster.

And if that guy happens to be Mudiay or Russell I don't think he blinks. Russell could probably play with MCW but I think Hinkie would be very willing to trade Carter-Williams too.

You could be right about Philly. Not a bad plan either. Good centers don't grow on trees, so he could always use one to leverage a trade. If I'm the 76érs, and I draft Russell, I trade MCW.

 

[The Hammer]

I pointed out the comparisons between McLemore and Peja their first two years. Bricky brought up the per's and he was right, however I think one has to remember that Peja played professional ball in europe since he was 16 years old, and he still struggled his first year. Most players do. They think they're ready, but until they get on the court and feel the physicality and speed of the NBA, they really don't understand. That's what Stauskas is going through right now.

I remember the first time I faced a major league pitcher with a legit curve ball and fast ball. His name was Von McDaniel, younger brother of Lindy McDaniel who was on the St. Louis Cardinals. The dude struck me out all four times I batted against him. I was emotionally crushed, and I remember thinking at the time, that if this is what the major leagues is like, I might as well hang it up right now and find another line of work. But I didn't! I adjusted, and changed my approach. And the next time I went one for four against him and put the ball in play three of the four times I batted. The dude was nasty though. A couple of years later he went something like nine and one, and took a no hitter into the eighth before giving up a hit, Next game out he toasted his arm and his career ended. Damm shame.

Dang man who are you!?

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

I'm not worried about the pick. We lose it, we keep it, there are pro's and con's to both, and we have little control over the results.

I mean, I'd almost be more worried about keeping it in the sense that it will show our improvement under Karl has been minimal. A better team + losing the pick is better than a worse team + keeping the pick at this stage of our rebuild, unless a player like Cousins suffers some sort of injury, then it's really out of our hands.

There is always the chance that we finish 11th and jump into the top 3, or we finish 10th and a team behind us jumps into the top 3 and we lose it. It's a situation so far out of our control that I'm not sure it's worth worrying about.

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

Also, somewhat minimal, but losing the pick opens up another 2-3 mil in cap space and a roster spot to use this offseason.

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

Not sure we'll have a shot at Cauley-Stein unless we get lucky and move into the top three, or we end up in the 5th or 6th spot. But you never know. I would draft Myles Turner before Looney. Looney's probably a little better athlete, but Turner is more skilled, a true shotblocker, and overall, taller and bigger than Looney. I'd take Woods from UNLV over Looney as well, even though Looney is ranked higher. There are a lot of very good defensive players in this draft. Justise Winslow is a very good defensive player, as is Stanley Johnson, who reminds me a lot of a young Ron Artest, without the craziness. I can pretty much tell you who the top four picks will be. Maybe not the order, but as of today, it will be Okafor, Russell, Towns, and Mudiay. It would be hard to pass on Okafor if you had the first pick, which begs the question, what would Philly do if they end up with the pick. They've drafted a PF and a Center in the last two drafts. I see a possible deal for someone.

I think Stein will be available. I have high doubts that the Kings will draft him, but I think he'll be around.

I know a lot of folks here follow the BPA model. I'm more of a 'need' guy when the talent is close, and in the top 10ish, the talent level is usually close. There are exceptions to the rule, obviously.

Of the teams in our draft range, I don't know if Philly, Orlando, Utah, Detroit, or Indiana will have any real interest in WCS. That's 5 of the top-10. IF we keep the pick, I think we'll have our shot.

Of course, we could always trade up if he was our target. I wouldn't hesitate to do that. Other teams could also jump ahead of us to grab him.

 

[The_Jamal]

Dang man who are you!?

I was thinking the exact same thing!

 

[The_Jamal]

I care far more about us playing good basketball the rest of the way than I do with keeping the pick. Another top 10 pick would absolutely be something to look forward too and a nice luxuyr, but we're not in a place as a franchise where we NEED that pick. What need more specialized players like an Anthony Morrow shooter, a Mozgov/Koufos back-up big and an instant offense guy like (*ahem*) IT or Gerald Green.

Regardless, looking forward to seeing what we can do under Karl.