Now that we know the draft order, who do we draft? (New thread)
- Thread starter VF21
- Start date
I don't know if I would deduce it to that 
Look at our defensive rating the last 10 years:
16-17 : 27th
15-16: 23rd
14-15: 27th
13-14: 23rd
12-13: 29th
11-12: 28th
10-11: 20th
09-10: 21st
08-09: 30th
07-08: 19th
That's an average of 25th out of 30 teams. Our defensive rating corresponds to our win total relative to rest of the league. We averaged about 6th worst team in NBA over last decade. The definition of insanity is doing same thing over and over and expecting different result! We hitched our wagon to Gs who hoped to be respectable defensively (Ben, Jimmer, Nik) and we saw how that turned out. Smith Jr projects as worse than these busts! The guy does not have the length OR heart to play competent NBA defense. He quit on his team in the presence of NBA scouts when he was basically auditioning for a multi-million dollar contract. If this is his effort under these circumstances, what happens when he gets a guaranteed 4 year contract?! Why would we have ANY interest in this type of player so weak mentally in the response to adversity?!15-16: 23rd
14-15: 27th
13-14: 23rd
12-13: 29th
11-12: 28th
10-11: 20th
09-10: 21st
08-09: 30th
07-08: 19th
(ORtg - DRtg) Differential
Guards:
Dennis Smith Jr (112.2 - 109.1) +3.1
Donovan Mitchell (116 - 94) +22 (Best on team)
De'Aaron Fox (113 - 99) +14
Lonzo Ball (131.3 - 100.7) +30
Wings:
Jayson Tatum (111.3- 98) +13
Jonathan Isaac (122.2 - 93.6) +28.6 (Best on team)
Josh Jackson (111 - 96) + 15
These stats are relevant yet have to be placed in proper context, or they can be misinterpreted. The main point is for team that has been 6th worst defensive rating over the last decade, we should NOT be investing in mediocre to below average defensive prospects. We should be targeting guys who made a defensive impact (reflected in raw DRtg and compared to teammates and team) and differential which reflects two-way ability, at least being capable of being part of an offensive that scores efficiently in transition and half-court. There are other variables when looking at these #s that must be weighed including quality of opponent and teammates. In case of Ball for example, Pac-10 is not ACC and Ball had superior teammates. The +30 and 131 ORtg is impressive but I discount somewhat due to aforementioned variables. The raw defensive DRTg for Isaac and Donovan with other factors bodes well these guys can be lockdown defenders. Differential shows they can play both ways. Smith defensive rating shows zero plus skill. I would hope our FO is aware of these metrics and choose to extend invitation accordingly. There's pre-draft strategy that says you want to cover your bases, if nothing else gather intel on players you will compete against with individual or group workout, but in the case of Smith I wouldn't bother. We've seen his attitude and defensive prowess before. Pass.
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I was half-joking but hoping it is indicative of the direction we are headed and our philosophy heading towards June 22nd.
Look at our defensive rating the last 10 years:
(ORtg - DRtg) Differential
Guards:
Dennis Smith Jr (112.2 - 109.1) +3.1
Donovan Mitchell (116 - 94) +22 (Best on team)
De'Aaron Fox (113 - 99) +14
Lonzo Ball (131.3 - 100.7) +30
Wings:
Jayson Tatum (111.3- 98) +13
Jonathan Isaac (122.2 - 93.6) +28.6 (Best on team)
Josh Jackson (111 - 96) + 15
These stats are relevant yet have to be placed in proper context, or they can be misinterpreted. The main point is for team that has been 6th worst defensive rating over the last decade, we should NOT be investing in mediocre to below average defensive prospects. We should be targeting guys who made a defensive impact (reflected in raw DRtg and compared to teammates and team) and differential which reflects two-way ability, at least being capable of being part of an offensive that scores efficiently in transition and half-court. There are other variables when looking at these #s that must be weighed including quality of opponent and teammates. In case of Ball for example, Pac-10 is not ACC and Ball had superior teammates. The +30 and 131 ORtg is impressive but I discount somewhat due to aforementioned variables. The raw defensive DRTg for Isaac and Donovan with other factors bodes well these guys can be lockdown defenders. Differential shows they can play both ways. Smith defensive rating shows zero plus skill. I would hope our FO is aware of these metrics and choose to extend invitation accordingly. There's pre-draft strategy that says you want to cover your bases, if nothing else gather intel on players you will compete against with individual or group workout, but in the case of Smith I wouldn't bother. We've seen his attitude and defensive prowess before. Pass.
Look at our defensive rating the last 10 years:
16-17 : 27th
15-16: 23rd
14-15: 27th
13-14: 23rd
12-13: 29th
11-12: 28th
10-11: 20th
09-10: 21st
08-09: 30th
07-08: 19th
That's an average of 25th out of 30 teams. Our defensive rating corresponds to our win total relative to rest of the league. We averaged about 6th worst team in NBA over last decade. The definition of insanity is doing same thing over and over and expecting different result! We hitched our wagon to Gs who hoped to be respectable defensively (Ben, Jimmer, Nik) and we saw how that turned out. Smith Jr projects as worse than these busts! The guy does not have the length OR heart to play competent NBA defense. He quit on his team in the presence of NBA scouts when he was basically auditioning for a multi-million dollar contract. If this is his effort under these circumstances, what happens when he gets a guaranteed 4 year contract?! Why would we have ANY interest in this type of player so weak mentally in the response to adversity?!15-16: 23rd
14-15: 27th
13-14: 23rd
12-13: 29th
11-12: 28th
10-11: 20th
09-10: 21st
08-09: 30th
07-08: 19th
(ORtg - DRtg) Differential
Guards:
Dennis Smith Jr (112.2 - 109.1) +3.1
Donovan Mitchell (116 - 94) +22 (Best on team)
De'Aaron Fox (113 - 99) +14
Lonzo Ball (131.3 - 100.7) +30
Wings:
Jayson Tatum (111.3- 98) +13
Jonathan Isaac (122.2 - 93.6) +28.6 (Best on team)
Josh Jackson (111 - 96) + 15
These stats are relevant yet have to be placed in proper context, or they can be misinterpreted. The main point is for team that has been 6th worst defensive rating over the last decade, we should NOT be investing in mediocre to below average defensive prospects. We should be targeting guys who made a defensive impact (reflected in raw DRtg and compared to teammates and team) and differential which reflects two-way ability, at least being capable of being part of an offensive that scores efficiently in transition and half-court. There are other variables when looking at these #s that must be weighed including quality of opponent and teammates. In case of Ball for example, Pac-10 is not ACC and Ball had superior teammates. The +30 and 131 ORtg is impressive but I discount somewhat due to aforementioned variables. The raw defensive DRTg for Isaac and Donovan with other factors bodes well these guys can be lockdown defenders. Differential shows they can play both ways. Smith defensive rating shows zero plus skill. I would hope our FO is aware of these metrics and choose to extend invitation accordingly. There's pre-draft strategy that says you want to cover your bases, if nothing else gather intel on players you will compete against with individual or group workout, but in the case of Smith I wouldn't bother. We've seen his attitude and defensive prowess before. Pass.
Markannen - 134.1 - 100.4
Whimsey. In two weeks we will have at least three new players whether through draft selection or trade. I'm getting tired of the suspense and I know that goes with the season. I wonder who they may be. Are they guards, forwards, centers, scorers, defenders. It is exciting but it is also wearing. After it's over how long will I be excited? When it's over I always enjoy doing my research. Find out everything, where they grew up, went to school, how many siblings they have, hobbies, anything and every thing. Well (deep breath), another two weeks.
Well there is another school of thought where it would be smart for Suns to trade away Bledsoe while he has some good value. His age profile does not align with Suns's timeline of when they would be ready to be a play off team again. Trading away Bledsoe bring the Suns some good assets (possibly in this draft) where they can draft a big guy to add to their complement of youth (Booker, Chriss, Bender, Ulis and possibly Fox). It gives them a core of youth that can grow together and some high level prospects.
On top of that it opens up some minutes for Knight where you hope that he plays to the level where he becomes tradeable. He did it the year that Bledsoe was injured so there is some hope that he can do that again and the Suns trade him for more assets.
Not to mention their GM's almost obsession like behavior when it comes to Kentucky guards.
If I was in charge of Phoenix, I would be looking to cash in on Bledsoe after a good season and looking to pair Booker with Fox and then try and add a big man in mid to late lottery (e.g. Z. Collins).
On top of that it opens up some minutes for Knight where you hope that he plays to the level where he becomes tradeable. He did it the year that Bledsoe was injured so there is some hope that he can do that again and the Suns trade him for more assets.
Not to mention their GM's almost obsession like behavior when it comes to Kentucky guards.
If I was in charge of Phoenix, I would be looking to cash in on Bledsoe after a good season and looking to pair Booker with Fox and then try and add a big man in mid to late lottery (e.g. Z. Collins).
Leroux and Duncan talk about Fox for about 25 minutes today on their podcast. Positives and Negatives. The both think DSJ's ceiling is higher but Fox's floor is higher.
It seems like they think the first 4 picks might go Fultz, Ball, DSJ, Fox...they didn't say that specifically, but it's conceivable.
It seems like they think the first 4 picks might go Fultz, Ball, DSJ, Fox...they didn't say that specifically, but it's conceivable.
I think some of this is semantics. Scorers win all the awards (except for one), make the All-Star team, participate in the three point shootout and dunk contest, sign max contracts and become the face of their respective teams. All-around players help their teams win. I think it's reasonable to say that Dennis Smith Jr. has more All-Star potential than Fox (which is usually what we mean when we say 'higher ceiling') because Fox will probably struggle as a scorer at least initially until he proves he can knock down shots consistently. It's also reasonable to say that Fox is likely going to help you more even if he doesn't reach his max potential because he's contributing so much more energy on the defensive side of the court. That could be what they mean when they say he has a higher floor.
Smith Jr. to Philly makes a lot of sense actually. That was my initial prediction after the lottery. Fox is a questionable fit because of his shooting struggles (can they really put him on the floor with Simmons and Embiid and expect to get all of their shooting from 2 positions?) and Monk feels like a reach at #3. With Smith you're still getting a high ceiling PG prospect but you're also getting a proven scorer with range on his jumper. Seems like a reasonable compromise if no trade agreement can be reached. That would mean we get one of Fox or Jackson which would be just fine with me!
Smith Jr. to Philly makes a lot of sense actually. That was my initial prediction after the lottery. Fox is a questionable fit because of his shooting struggles (can they really put him on the floor with Simmons and Embiid and expect to get all of their shooting from 2 positions?) and Monk feels like a reach at #3. With Smith you're still getting a high ceiling PG prospect but you're also getting a proven scorer with range on his jumper. Seems like a reasonable compromise if no trade agreement can be reached. That would mean we get one of Fox or Jackson which would be just fine with me!
I wouldn't be surprised if Philly takes DSJ at 3. He's a top talent, but fans continue to underrate him because the media isn't talking about him. Is there a thing called media bias? Because I think that's what DSJ suffers from...on top of the Fox bandwagoning. He's my 3rd favorite prospect in this class (behind Fultz and Ball).
4 PGs? Well then hello Josh Jackson to the Kings - the best wing defender in the draft.....wonderful. Kings could use a premier defender certainly. They can then trade down for Juwan Evans with Portland and also grab Portland's #1 next year to cover the gap. Or with another team that might right rank lower and give them a better chance at a higher pick next year.
When I first looked at the PGs - I started out liking Fox, then Smith, then back to Fox.....really either of them though. Fox I think would instantly help on defense which is a big need, maybe bigger than Smith's offense for the team. Fox and Issac or Smith and Issac would be birthday cake. Also good would be Jackson and Smith or Tatum and Smith. I have no clue what Vlade will do though, especially given last year. The only thing I would be disappointed about would be a trade 5 and 10 for Fox....as much as I like Fox, just don't think he's worth a chance at another talent becoming a star. If Fox isn't there - too bad, go with Smith or whoever.
The more I think about it, the more I am against trading up from 5. I really like Fox and he would be my #1 choice at pick #5 for the team. However, if he is gone then that means that one of Jackson and Tatum will be available at #5.
IMHO, our strategy should be best player available at pick #5. That means that we will be addressing 1 of the positions of need regardless of who the player is. It will either be a PG (Fox) or a SF (Jackson or Tatum).
If the pick at #5 is Fox, then I think you explore the possibility of moving up to draft Isaac (or any other SF that might be available out of Tatum or unlikely Jackson). If moving up is not an option, then you either go best available at 10 which is likely going to be big (unless another PG slides) or you start exploring options of trading down a handful of spots to try and get a SF with big upside (e.g. Anunoby).
Alternatively, if SF is a pick at #5, then I am trying to move up to draft Smith if he is still available or stay in the spot and pick one of Ntilikina or Mitchell (only a good option of Jackson is picked at #3). Mitchell is someone that would fit Knicks better than Smith IMHO.
Bottom line is that you take the BPA at #5 and that will address one of your needs regardless. Both PG and SF are most pressing needs with PG being more of an immediate need than SF because you can always play smaller with Temple or Richardson at SF but there is no PG on the roster.
If at 5 you pick SF, you look to move up and get the best PG you can between 6-9 if you can, if not you stay put and pick BPA and leave the PG for FA and another draft.
This team is in desperate need of talent and assets and the last thing it needs to do is burn two top 10 picks to move up a couple of spots. Getting these two picks right accelerates the rebuild process IMHO but you need to get them right. You need a couple of all-stars out of this draft who are preferably also leaders, hence the appeal of Fox.
IMHO, our strategy should be best player available at pick #5. That means that we will be addressing 1 of the positions of need regardless of who the player is. It will either be a PG (Fox) or a SF (Jackson or Tatum).
If the pick at #5 is Fox, then I think you explore the possibility of moving up to draft Isaac (or any other SF that might be available out of Tatum or unlikely Jackson). If moving up is not an option, then you either go best available at 10 which is likely going to be big (unless another PG slides) or you start exploring options of trading down a handful of spots to try and get a SF with big upside (e.g. Anunoby).
Alternatively, if SF is a pick at #5, then I am trying to move up to draft Smith if he is still available or stay in the spot and pick one of Ntilikina or Mitchell (only a good option of Jackson is picked at #3). Mitchell is someone that would fit Knicks better than Smith IMHO.
Bottom line is that you take the BPA at #5 and that will address one of your needs regardless. Both PG and SF are most pressing needs with PG being more of an immediate need than SF because you can always play smaller with Temple or Richardson at SF but there is no PG on the roster.
If at 5 you pick SF, you look to move up and get the best PG you can between 6-9 if you can, if not you stay put and pick BPA and leave the PG for FA and another draft.
This team is in desperate need of talent and assets and the last thing it needs to do is burn two top 10 picks to move up a couple of spots. Getting these two picks right accelerates the rebuild process IMHO but you need to get them right. You need a couple of all-stars out of this draft who are preferably also leaders, hence the appeal of Fox.
Curious, why do you rank Smith at 8? It seems like his effort issues are being overplayed. He's the 2nd best shot creator behind Fultz. He has amazing scoring instincts, and can legitimately score from all 3 levels. After Fultz, he's the closest thing to a franchise player. He can get buckets. He can run an offense. He's a good passer. He's arguably the 2nd best passer behind Ball. How many teams do you think regretted passing on Cousins? Draft went Wall, Turner, Favors, and Johnson. The guys selected at 2, 3, and 4 have been extremely mediocre in the NBA. Even with Cousins' attitude issues, he's still managed to consistently be a top 5 C through most of his career in spite of his horrendous attitude. When you go back to DSJ, DSJ's attitude issues aren't nearly as bad nor profound as Cousins.
I think when you're a team like the Kings who are desperately missing a franchise player, you can't afford to pass up on DSJ. His offensive arsenal is extremely explosive. If you need a bucket, he's probably the 2nd player you'd go to in that whole list. If you remove Fultz, DSJ is probably the most dynamic scoring PG since Lillard(5 years ago) or Kyrie (6 years ago). The league is trending towards scoring PGs.
I'm curious as to why you have him at 8, and even then, feel like it's too high? I think your rankings are entirely reasonable though.
I think when you're a team like the Kings who are desperately missing a franchise player, you can't afford to pass up on DSJ. His offensive arsenal is extremely explosive. If you need a bucket, he's probably the 2nd player you'd go to in that whole list. If you remove Fultz, DSJ is probably the most dynamic scoring PG since Lillard(5 years ago) or Kyrie (6 years ago). The league is trending towards scoring PGs.
I'm curious as to why you have him at 8, and even then, feel like it's too high? I think your rankings are entirely reasonable though.
Smith is interesting to me and I'm warming up to him. When I was first reading about him I kinda wrote him off as someone I wouldn't want on the Kings given his issues, but I'm kinda re-thinking that after watching him some more and reading about him. His biggest issue is defensive effort and an overall question of how much does he care. I don't know how to figure that out without talking with him so he's the biggest wildcard in this draft. His talent says he should be in the top 5 (pushing Tatum out IMO) but the effort questions may push him down a little (no further than 7 for me). If he can answer the caring question then I don't doubt that Coach Joerger and his staff will get effort out of him on D and I happily take him at 5.
Speaking of Dennis Smith, the Kings have yet to bring him in for a workout. There is still two weeks left to do so and if the trend continues, the next workout will be scheduled on Tuesday or Wednesday since they have one a week. I'd like to hope they at least bring him in and see what he can bring to the table, interview him behind the scenes and pick his brain a bit. The team shouldn't be in love with just Fox because they need a viable option B and C WHEN the draft doesn't go to their liking.
Me too. Honestly, if Vlade and co bring him in for a workout, but decide he's not worth it at 5, I won't be upset at all. He definitely has character concerns, and I trust Vlade's judgement on this. I remember on the Sac Bee article or somewhere, it said the Kings will probably bring in Smith Jr for a workout. Lots of things change, but I really hope we get at least an interview.
I'm really excited to see who else the Kings will bring it. We've already brought loads of talented players so far: DeAaron Fox, Donovan Mitchell, Harry Gilles, Justin Jackson, Caleb Swanigan, Cam Oliver, Jamel Artis, Jordan Bell, etc. I think all of the guys we brought in so far, are potential NBA caliber players. Very talented. Extremely refreshing to see the Kings bringing in talent.
I'm really excited to see who else the Kings will bring it. We've already brought loads of talented players so far: DeAaron Fox, Donovan Mitchell, Harry Gilles, Justin Jackson, Caleb Swanigan, Cam Oliver, Jamel Artis, Jordan Bell, etc. I think all of the guys we brought in so far, are potential NBA caliber players. Very talented. Extremely refreshing to see the Kings bringing in talent.
Are the Kings planning on bringing in Tatum and Isaac? Those seem to be the two most logical options at 5 if Fox is gone. I hope we're doing our due diligence there. I'm a strong believer in Isaac over Tatum if there's no Fox on the board, but if we go Tatum I'd at least hope we tried to match the two up head to head if possible.