Note to Spence

[VF21]

brad can give one helluva vicious pick....go ask harris when he was with the mavs

I still cringe when I think of that screen. And new players wonder why they spend hours working on drills to learn to warn their fellow teammates about blind picks.

 

[DeMoN]

I still cringe when I think of that screen. And new players wonder why they spend hours working on drills to learn to warn their fellow teammates about blind picks.

Got a link? I'd love to see it. =]

 

[VF21]

You can probably find it on YouTube. Look for Brad Miller/Devin Harris.

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

I still dont understand what where doing with Hawes. I know he tends to float out to the 3pt line, but at the same time we dont use him in the post where he is most effective.

We post up Thompson, Nocioni, Evans .. even Casspi and Udoka, but Hawes always gets the ball at the high post. It looks awkward and for the most part it doesnt accomplish much. He usually just hands the ball off to a guard and either rolls to basket off that or pops out for the jumper. I wish we could give him more touches down low, but its hard to complain about a game play when your winning.

He makes some funky looking shots down low, but he has pretty good touch and his defense has been better than what I expected.

 

[DeMoN]

You can probably find it on YouTube. Look for Brad Miller/Devin Harris.

Been searching, can't find it.

 

[hardware_failure]

I think Hawes should keep taking 3's, yeah, thats what he needs. :-/

I remember that tangle with Miller and Harris 2 years ago, I think it was a preseason game.

Seriously I think Hawes needs some major coaching/guidance. The potential is more than there he just needs to beef the bball IQ and focus. Alot of it is instinct alot of it can also be taught.

While both the subjects are at hand.. can you imagine Hawes's physicality with bmillers big man bball IQ? That would be scary. (maybe it just floats in my head cause they are both white boys that play the 5 and were on the kings... nothing prejudiced intended just a rare coincidence in the NBA)

 

[Bricklayer]

While both the subjects are at hand.. can you imagine Hawes's physicality with bmillers big man bball IQ? That would be scary. (maybe it just floats in my head cause they are both white boys that play the 5 and were on the kings... nothing prejudiced intended just a rare coincidence in the NBA)

Hawes's what with BMiller's what??


I'd rather keep it simple -- Hawes's skillset, and body for that matter and let's jsut put in Dejaun Blair's heart and toughness. Or hell, for the approrpiate comparison, let's just put in McHale's brain. You put a warrior into Spencer's body wiht those skills and he's tearing up the league.

 

[DeMoN]

Hawes's what with BMiller's what??


I'd rather keep it simple -- Hawes's skillset, and body for that matter and let's jsut put in Dejaun Blair's heart and toughness. Or hell, for the approrpiate comparison, let's just put in McHale's brain. You put a warrior into Spencer's body wiht those skills and he's tearing up the league.

He's not that athletic, its not like he can do much. He's got 5 other way athletic basketball players going crazy around him. You can't ask for much.

 

[Bricklayer]

He's not that athletic, its not like he can do much. He's got 5 other way athletic basketball players going crazy around him. You can't ask for much.

Did you ever see Kevin McHale play? (legit question -- if you are young enough you may not have).

The whole point of those moves is they negate athleticism. If he was running around trying to dunk over everybody, sure. He fails. But he has skills that not 10 guys in the whole league have. He's just too wimpy to go in there and absorb the punsihment you have to to make use of them. He's a flag football player in a tackle league.

As an aside, Spencer's athleticsm is probably about average for a center and better than some PFs (Luis Scola comes to mind) as well. Nenad Krstic, Joel Pryzbilla, Marc Gasol, Bogut, Haywood, Miller the list goes on. Including our own muscleless post playing ex-center (Vlade).

 

[DeMoN]

Did you ever see Kevin McHale play? (legit question -- if you are young enough you may not have).

The whole point of those moves is they negate athleticism. If he was running around trying to dunk over everybody, sure. He fails. But he has skills that not 10 guys in the whole league have. He's just too wimpy to go in there and absorb the punsihment you have to to make use of them. He's a flag football player in a tackle league.

As an aside, Spencer's athleticsm is probably about average for a center and better than some PFs (Luis Scola comes to mind) as well. Nenad Krstic, Joel Pryzbilla, Marc Gasol, Bogut, Haywood, Miller the list goes on. Including our own muscleless post playing ex-center (Vlade).

I guess thats true. I would honestly like to keep Nocioni on the team for that fact. The more tougher players the more tough your team gets... right?

 

[Bricklayer]

I guess thats true. I would honestly like to keep Nocioni on the team for that fact. The more tougher players the more tough your team gets... right?

Yes quandry that. We are winning and forming up a tough persona...and then in 8 weeks we have about 60 minutes of guys returning to eat up the bulk of the minutes at 2 positions. Something will have to give. Unclear what at this point.

 

[DeMoN]

Yes quandry that. We are winning and forming up a tough persona...and then in 8 weeks we have about 60 minutes of guys returning to eat up the bulk of the minutes at 2 positions. Something will have to give. Unclear what at this point.

Release Martin and Garcia, and sign Patrick Willis? =]

 

[dbfish]

Ah, but maybe it's a cake you've never had before. It's a chocolate cake with almonds and perhaps a dash of ameretto, etc.

What's developing with the Kings just isn't clear enough to know.

Perhaps my cake example was wrong.

let's put it this way. If you have a 82-piece jigsaw puzzle and you lose the box top are you going to be able to tell what the picture is by the first 7 pieces you put on the table?

Examples aside, I'm saying they're a work in progress and I think it's way to early to try and draw conclusions. What we saw the first couple of games hasn't been what we've seen the last couple of games and what we might see tonight could be different still.

Bottom line Spencer needs to be assertive in the paint and he hasn't been thus far. That's why I said he plays short. It's like he doesn't know he's 7 feet tall and big enough to body up on a lot of the people that are being matched against him. Not sure why...could be just his game but it's not a symptom of his college days I don't think since Brockman gets it and Brockman came from the same school.

I like your jigsaw puzzle analogy. I also like chocolate cake.

 

[deekay2o9]

Spence is 0-11 as of today on three's. I know he's supposed to be Brad Miller v2.0 but damn!

 

[Aenadin]

hes not brad v 2.0.. spencer plays like that frenchman raef lafrentz with all his tendencies to shoot threes. Spencer shooting threes i think is a sign that paul wants him to make them sooner or later... be a legitimate 3pt threat... for now its not working well but if it does well well be talking about other things like spence for 3pt contest .

and about brad he wasnt athletic but ive seen him play and he sometimes beats his man when he drives to the hoop and im like . he is deceptively quick sometimes.. i watched some bulls game and for some reason he's a little active there than he was here the couple of years...

 

[Insomniacal Fan]

Lafrentz isn't French. He's from Iowa and went to KU for college.

The thing about Spencer's 3 3s last game is that they were wide open. Seemed like they were specifically drawn plays to get him open and get him going. I think you blame the coach for that, not Spence (well, aside from bricking 'em)

After missing 3, it became clear that they weren't falling , and they didn't run that play again that game.

With all our scrappy guys, I think we can try that play a few times a game. Worst case scenario, Spencer bricks 'em and gets to devote more energy to playing defense, where he can start collecting more 4 block nights.

Best case scenario, he splashes a couple, forcing their center to give Reke some space. Reke, one on one, with space is probably our team's best play at this point.

Plus, with our all scrappy lineup, we don't "need" Hawes in there to get the offensive rebound every time. Our rebounding differential over the past 3 games has been +11. Ok, throw out the Warriors game... +7.5.

Maybe Hawes should start playing like a center when our guards start playing like guards

 

[CBO]

One habit, that drives me nuts, is when he's on defense and the offense performs a simple pick and role. Without fail, he ineffectively lunges toward the guard, and then tries to recover and re-guard the big man he left who's running towards the basket. This would work if Spencer was spritely and speedy enough to recover, but he's not and is always caught in no-man's land - too far from both players to do anything. If you watch him, he will, without fail, do this on every single pick & roll that he's involved in. Why the opposing team doesn't exploit this on every play is beyond me. And why he keeps doing this, is a complete mystery to me.

I'm not sure (because I don't live in an area where I can watch games) but it sounds to me like he is making a poor attempt to show. The idea behind it is to act like, as a result of the pick, you're going to switch on to the man with the ball, tricking the ballhandler into thinking that you left the guy who set the pick. Ideally, then you jump back to your man, or into the passing lane to get the steal. It especially works great in pickup games where there are no NBA level PGs (they're easier to trick).

Really, it is a good defensive move...if you can get back quick enough. I don't get to watch games, so I don't know if this is actually what's happening, but it seems like Spencer may be playing what should be good defense, but due to lack of quickness is actually bad. Kind of the "play within your abilities" thing.

 

[Bricklayer]

Three point shooting of championship centers since 3pt shot was instituted:

2009: Bynum (0/0); Gasol (1/2)
2008: Perkins (0/1)
2007: Oberto (0/0); Duncan (1/9)
2006: Shaq (0/0)
2005: Nesterovic (0/0); Mohammed (0/0)
2004: Wallace (1/8)
2003: Robinson (0/0)
2002: Shaq (0/1)
2001: Shaq (0/2)
2000: Shaq (0/1)
1999: Robinson (0/0)
1998: Longely (0/0)
1997: Longely (0/2)
1996: Longely (0/0)
1995: Olajuwon (3/16)
1994: Olajuwon (8/19)
1993: Cartwright (0/0)
1992: Cartwright (0/0)
1991: Cartwright (0/0)
1990: Laimbeer (57/158)
1989: Laimbeer (30/86)
1988: Abdul Jabbar (0/1)
1987: Abdul Jabbar (1/3)
1986: Parrish (0/0)
1985: Abdul Jabbar (0/1)
1984: Parrish (0/0)
1983: Malone (0/1)
1982: Abdul Jabbar (0/3)
1981: Parrish (0/1)
1980: Abdul Jabbar (0/1)

There is one, ONE model in the entire history of the NBA to justify Spencer. And that 1 sample was an aging platoon roleplayer 20 years ago who would have broken Spencer in half and used him as a seat cushion. And had only had 1 season where he shot more than 1 a game BTW. So if Specner wants to morph intothe meanest, toughest, dirtiest center in the league, then I will perhaps grant him the rihgt to be a wuss one time a game. Otherwise...

GET.

YOUR ***.

INSIDE!!!

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Three point shooting of championship centers since 3pt shot was instituted:

...

There is one, ONE model in the entire history of the NBA to justify Spencer.

This is a case where I think that it's important to remember that correlation does not equal causation. To the extent that the past 30 NBA champions have relied on the play of their centers (not trying to quantify how much), by and large that contribution came from interior defense and tough rebounding, and in probably a bit more than half the cases shouldering a significant scoring load (usually in the paint).

One (and not necessarily the only) reason these guys didn't take threes is because they couldn't hit them - outside of Laimbeer and Olajuwon the rest of the sample shot 11% from outside, most of those probably to beat the shot/game clock. Spencer differs there because he can hit them at a reasonable rate (.348 last year, .299 career including this year's 0-11 start).

Taking threes shouldn't affect Spencer's defense or defensive rebounding at all. It should deplete his offensive rebounding and affect his scoring, so let me throw some stats out here to try to estimate how much: Spencer has taken 1198 FGA in his career, and if you add in the standard 0.44*FTA to estimate the number of times he shot and was fouled but missed (and so didn't get a FGA) you get another 94 FGA, for a total of 1292 estimated FGA in his career. Let's assume he hasn't been fouled on any threes. This means he has taken 147 threes and about 1145 twos.

This comes out to one of every nine shots from outside the arc. If he shoots in proportion to where he is hanging out, that would suggest that he's spending about 1 of every 9 possessions outside the arc. Let's be cynical and increase that to 2 of every 9. That would then suggest that he's only grabbed 7/9 of the offensive rebounds he should have...resulting in (math deleted) 66 fewer offensive rebounds over his career, or 1 missed offensive rebound every 52 minutes.

If you break down his shooting efficiency, he scores about 1.02 points per shot inside the arc and 0.90 points per shot outside - meaning if he had taken all of his outside shots from inside, that's 18 more points over his career, or one point every 190 minutes.

To me, these aren't make-or-break type numbers. Force Spencer to spend 100% of his time in the paint instead of 77-88%, and he looks to be only marginally better. The problem isn't that he shoots threes sometimes. The problem is that he hasn't been a dominating center, period. Outside of a game here or there, he hasn't provided good interior defense and tough rebounding. And that, I believe, is really the crux. He needs to be tougher, he needs to be more physical, he needs to go after it more. Not shooting threes, in my opinion, isn't going to help him do that. Practice and maturing (some with age, some with working out) might.

My point is that I just don't think that there is a causal relationship between championship centers and NOT shooting threes, and I think that's backed up by the only marginal (estimated) improvement Spencer would have seen had he stayed inside the arc all the time. For the most part, tough defensive rebounding centers don't have that skill in the first place, so you wouldn't expect them to shoot threes. Spencer does. He just happens to be missing the tough defensive rebounding part, and not taking threes isn't going to help him get that. (Unless he's spending 50% of his practice time shooting outside jumpers, in which case, off with his head!)

 

[Bricklayer]

The two sets all stem from a single mentality, one which Spencer does not have. And those centers did not arrive on those teams by accident -- they were selected with malice by franchises which understood that toughness and interior dominance always have, and always will, be predicators of championship basketball, on both ends of the court.

Don Nelson has never won anything. Mike D'Anonti has never won anything. Brad Miller has never won anything. And they never will. And neither will Spencer if he insists on using them as his models.

 

[Eclipse]

I'm not sure (because I don't live in an area where I can watch games) but it sounds to me like he is making a poor attempt to show. The idea behind it is to act like, as a result of the pick, you're going to switch on to the man with the ball, tricking the ballhandler into thinking that you left the guy who set the pick. Ideally, then you jump back to your man, or into the passing lane to get the steal. It especially works great in pickup games where there are no NBA level PGs (they're easier to trick).

Really, it is a good defensive move...if you can get back quick enough. I don't get to watch games, so I don't know if this is actually what's happening, but it seems like Spencer may be playing what should be good defense, but due to lack of quickness is actually bad. Kind of the "play within your abilities" thing.

I think you hit the nail on the head. Spencer is just too slow to fool anyone with the fake lunges, which only succeeds in getting him out of position. I think he defended it much better in the last game, where he just stayed with his man.

 

[Insomniacal Fan]

Stockton and Malone never got a ring, despite being some of the nastiest players in NBA history; should Sloan have thrown out the pick 'n roll page of the playbook?

I think Spence shooting and making 1-2 wide open threes a game can open up the paint to Reke, who looks like our #1 option anyway. Forcing a long range jumpshot should nail him to the bench to be sure, but even with all Hawes' moves, he's probably not going to be as dominant in a one on one post situation as Reke.

 

[AriesMar27]

Stockton and Malone never got a ring, despite being some of the nastiest players in NBA history; should Sloan have thrown out the pick 'n roll page of the playbook?

I think Spence shooting and making 1-2 wide open threes a game can open up the paint to Reke, who looks like our #1 option anyway. Forcing a long range jumpshot should nail him to the bench to be sure, but even with all Hawes' moves, he's probably not going to be as dominant in a one on one post situation as Reke.

thats not fair... they did go to the finals a few times but jordan kinda got in the way of malone/stockton winning a ring or two...

 

[Capt. Factorial]

The two sets all stem from a single mentality, one which Spencer does not have.

I agree that Spencer doesn't have the mentality of recent championship centers. But I don't believe that stopping the threes will change the mentality, I don't believe the threes must be stopped before the mentality can change, and I'm not convinced that if the mentality DOES change that the threes will be an issue. I guess I just don't see a psychological rule that says you can't do both - bang down low most of the time, but also step out to the perimeter when the set calls for it. But yeah, work on the mentality.

(I also have hope that, being 21, a few years of seasoning could do him some good as well.)

 

[Insomniacal Fan]

thats not fair... they did go to the finals a few times but jordan kinda got in the way of malone/stockton winning a ring or two...

Nah it wasn't, but it was less painful than the other example of Webb and Vlade never getting rings. Should they have passed the ball less and pounded it in more?

 

[Insomniacal Fan]

Dug around a bit in the stats, and while it's a bit of a stretch, Detroit in 2004 won the championship with Sheed as the tallest starter on the floor... shooting 82-248 3 pointers for that season. I admit to not watching much of the Pistons that season, but it's hard for me to imagine the Pistons having Ben Wallace function offensively as your classical Ewing style center(also ringless). He averaged 12 points on 4 offensive rebounds, turbo-garbageman numbers.

Mehmet Okur played a 6th man role on that team, so two count'em two 3 point shooting big men on the same championship team.

 

[exGrizzly]

Capt Factorial I didn't want to quote your long post because it gave me a headache, but judging by your name you're clearly a stat person. I'm not a words person either.

Maybe the fact that Spencer shoots threes at a greater rate than championship centers in the past have, though not a cause of his crummy defense, is an indication of what kind of a defender he'll be when he's fully developed as a basketball player. We all know what kind of defender he is now.

Maybe we should have a stat of centers within +/- an inch of Spencer's height who played the league average in their careers, how many threes they took, and whether or not they were known as good defenders in their careers. This might give us an idea of whether or not it's worth hanging on to him and investing more in his development.

There's a thesis in here somewhere.

 

[Prince_XY]

I can't see the point why people would still condone Hawes shooting 3's, when the fact of the matter is that the Kid has not been making them and the his other teammates can do that for our team instead of him.

I can't see the point why people still condone Hawes shooting 3's, when the fact of the matter is that Hawes is our CENTER who is supposedly operating in or near the paint. If he is fast enough to return to the post, then it's fine. But the fact is - he is too slow to get back.

I can't see the point why people still condone Hawes shooting 3's, when the fact of the matter is that we don't have the luxury of having another extra-ordinary center with him when he shoots those 3's, like Ben Wallace was for Rasheed of the Pistons.

I can't see the point why people still condone Hawes shooting 3's, when a lot of us think he looks soft as a center, and shooting 3's does not help him look otherwise.

Do you guys really want Hawes to stay the softie center he is right now?

For teams' sake, don't play like the wussy Center that you are right now Mr. 7-footer! You are disappointing a lot of us who think you can do better!

 

[VF21]

The fact of the matter is that not making them is not a definitive reason to quit shooting them. The fact of the matter is that having him attempt them doesn't make him look soft.

I haven't been real pleased with Hawes performance of late, but I'm not ready to call him soft. Considering his usual hustle, I'm more inclined to believe some of his play recently is possibly because of the flu that is going around Sacramento (and pretty much everywhere else) right now.

Hawes is a competitor...and if he's stepping out to attempt threes, it's obviously something Coach Westphal wants him to do. I know there's a common perception around here that centers should never shoot threes, but I want to give Westphal the benefit of the doubt and consider that he could be having Hawes do it so that when he does step out defenders are pulled out to cover him. He can make that shot as we've seen. So having him establish it as part of his arsensal is arguably a good move.

 

[VF21]

At this point, it seems the other thread is still on topic - for the most part. And the most recent post in this thread, aside from mine above, is also posted in the other thread. For that reason, and to prevent the further duplication of discussion, I'm closing this one.