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In case you missed it, NBA TV had a player by player evaluation with Eric Snow and Ron Thompson. Below is a summary of their points. I'll leave out obvious things like Rubio's high IQ and Evan's size and focus on how they project the players:
Ricky Rubio: Question his readiness to run a team. Do not think he can defend the small quick guards. Think he can be dynamite in the right system. He will be tested early with team being very physical with him. Being strong phsycially and mentally to withstand the punishment will be key for his early going.
Tyreke Evans: Call him an "amazing player" but he is a player without a position. Do not think he is ready to be a PG - still a lot to learn about the position but has the ability to be a lead guard in the future. Question his ability to defend the small guards. Both analysts seem to be drooling about his potential. Say he is not a guy you can "categorize" as a 1,2, or 3.
Stephen Curry: He can "score 30 pts at the drop of a hat" (exact quote). Both analysts have no doubt he'll be a big time scorer in the NBA. Question his ability to defend the quick players. Question his williness to transform from a volume shooter to an unselfish playmaker. Not ready to be a fulltime PG but has the talent to become one, the key is his mental aspect - whether he is willing to give up his own shots and set up others. Snow says Curry is not ready to be a starter.
Jonny Flynn: Plays bigger than his size. Fierce competitor. Good at pressuring the ball. More suited to being an off-the-bench tempo changer than a starter. Can see him becoming a starter eventually but analysts seem to imply he's a more natural BJax-type than a fulltime starter.
Brandon Jennings: He is either a star or a bust; there is no in-between for Jennings.
My take-away is that on star potential: Flynn is the safest choice but he has the lowest ceiling out of the top PGs. Evans and Curry have good chance to be stars but maybe not at the PG positions. Rubio is too young and his body not yet developed enough to get a handle on star potential.
On readiness, Flynn wins - he is ready to play now and more importantly he's ready to be your PG. Evans is still learning the lead guard position and probably not able to give you what you need out of the PG spot. Same with Curry. If Rubio can handle the physical punishment then he can probably play major mins but if he can't then you have to wait for him to develop. So there is some uncertainty about Rubio's readiness.
Overall, I think this trade off of star potential vs risk is why the Kings are still back and forth on the pick (if sources are to be believed and I do). If you're picking the best player available then perhaps Evans is the guy but he won't be able to play many mins at PG next season or perhaps the season after that. If you want a PG who can average 20+ ppg then Curry is your man, but again, he is not ready to be a PG and maybe never will. If you just want an upgrade at the point and want to pick a guy who is ready to play now and is pretty good then Flynn is the obvious winner. If you want star potential AND someone who is for sure a true PG then Rubio wins, but again, you may have to wait a couple years for him to develop.
If I have to guess, I think the Kings have Rubio, Evans, Curry, Flynn in that order.
Ricky Rubio: Question his readiness to run a team. Do not think he can defend the small quick guards. Think he can be dynamite in the right system. He will be tested early with team being very physical with him. Being strong phsycially and mentally to withstand the punishment will be key for his early going.
Tyreke Evans: Call him an "amazing player" but he is a player without a position. Do not think he is ready to be a PG - still a lot to learn about the position but has the ability to be a lead guard in the future. Question his ability to defend the small guards. Both analysts seem to be drooling about his potential. Say he is not a guy you can "categorize" as a 1,2, or 3.
Stephen Curry: He can "score 30 pts at the drop of a hat" (exact quote). Both analysts have no doubt he'll be a big time scorer in the NBA. Question his ability to defend the quick players. Question his williness to transform from a volume shooter to an unselfish playmaker. Not ready to be a fulltime PG but has the talent to become one, the key is his mental aspect - whether he is willing to give up his own shots and set up others. Snow says Curry is not ready to be a starter.
Jonny Flynn: Plays bigger than his size. Fierce competitor. Good at pressuring the ball. More suited to being an off-the-bench tempo changer than a starter. Can see him becoming a starter eventually but analysts seem to imply he's a more natural BJax-type than a fulltime starter.
Brandon Jennings: He is either a star or a bust; there is no in-between for Jennings.
My take-away is that on star potential: Flynn is the safest choice but he has the lowest ceiling out of the top PGs. Evans and Curry have good chance to be stars but maybe not at the PG positions. Rubio is too young and his body not yet developed enough to get a handle on star potential.
On readiness, Flynn wins - he is ready to play now and more importantly he's ready to be your PG. Evans is still learning the lead guard position and probably not able to give you what you need out of the PG spot. Same with Curry. If Rubio can handle the physical punishment then he can probably play major mins but if he can't then you have to wait for him to develop. So there is some uncertainty about Rubio's readiness.
Overall, I think this trade off of star potential vs risk is why the Kings are still back and forth on the pick (if sources are to be believed and I do). If you're picking the best player available then perhaps Evans is the guy but he won't be able to play many mins at PG next season or perhaps the season after that. If you want a PG who can average 20+ ppg then Curry is your man, but again, he is not ready to be a PG and maybe never will. If you just want an upgrade at the point and want to pick a guy who is ready to play now and is pretty good then Flynn is the obvious winner. If you want star potential AND someone who is for sure a true PG then Rubio wins, but again, you may have to wait a couple years for him to develop.
If I have to guess, I think the Kings have Rubio, Evans, Curry, Flynn in that order.
