My Case for Greg Oden

[hrdboild]

Coming off three straight seasons at or near the bottom of the standings, the team has arrived at a crossroads of sorts. High lottery picks Evans and Cousins have shown enough potential to slot them into the starting lineup for a long time to come. Only two other sizable contracts remain on the payroll -- Beno and Garcia who have played important veteran roles on the team this year. Jason Thompson, Donte Greene, Omri Casspi, and Hassan Whiteside are all on their rookie contracts. We have decisions to make with Dalembert and Thornton both of whom have shown they can be key contributors for the team if given the opportunity. Another high lottery pick looms on the horizon along with approximately $30 million of cap space to sign free agents.

I think most of us are in agreement that another full season at the bottom of the league in payroll and the bottom of the league in standings would not be acceptable. However, as long as it's taken Geoff to finally clear out the bad contracts carried over from the previous championship push, we should also understand that spending money can be counterproductive if it's not done carefully and appropriately. The time for stock-piling expiring contracts and draft picks has passed. We should be looking for complimentary talent and key pieces for the next championship push.

So with that in mind, let's look briefly at what assets we currently have:

(G) Tyreke Evans - Former ROTY, just suffered through a season of nagging injuries. The troubling part about Tyreke's sophmore season is that he seemed to struggle at times integrating his game with that of his teammates. With the emergence of Cousins as a capable passer and go-to scorer, Tyreke's dominant do-it-all rookie presence seemed to fade. Was it just the injuries slowing him down or was it a sign of things to come?

(PF/C) DeMarcus Cousins - Hyper-talented bigman who plays with a chip on his shoulder which sometimes gets him in trouble with the refs and his own teammates. Unstoppable in the post on occasion but sometimes plays out of control. Improved immensely as a defender throughout the season though still guilty of ill-advised attempts to draw charges. Seems to have All-Star bigman written all over him if he can limit his fouls and keep focused for the full 48 minutes.

The Rest - Beno (PG), Garcia (SG/SF), Thompson(PF/C), Greene(SF), Casspi(SF), Whiteside(PF/C) - Whiteside is still a mystery but the rest have shown flashes of potential at times. Beno played well enough this season to be considered one of the best backup guards in the league. Garcia, when he's not injured, has been a steadying presence and occasional shotmaker. Thompson played well towards the end of the season after the Landry trade solidified his role on the team. Greene and Casspi continue to frustrate and tantalize. Does Casspi want to be traded?

Key Free Agents:

(G) Marcus Thornton - Arriving through mid-season trade, hit the ground running with much-needed scoring and heady end-game play. Proved himself to be a capable playmaker as well and at least an average rebounder. As an unrestricted free agent, he's going to earn a sizable raise and a multi-season contract from somebody.

(C) Samuel Dalembert - Struggled through early season injuries and a long adjustment period while Westphal figured out his rotation. Settled in as the starting center in the second half of the season and found his comfort zone as a difference-maker on defense and a surprisingly capable scorer on occasion as well. Also an unrestricted free-agent, though coming off a large contract and reaching the end of his career he may be willing to take a pay cut.

So our current depth chart looks like this:

Tyreke, Beno
Garcia, (Tyreke)
Greene, Casspi, (Garcia), (Tyreke)
Cousins, Thompson
Whiteside, (Cousins), (Thompson)

Team needs:

A solid third guard, preferably a starter (re-sign Thornton?)
A solid third big, preferably a starter (re-sign Dalembert?)
More reliable production at SF
A consistent outside shooter
Veteran leadership

Dalembert and Thornton both leave big holes to fill if they're not re-signed. It's probably unwise to count on Whiteside as a regular rotation player at this point though we also shouldn't cut him completely out of the depth chart. As the fourth big he should find plenty of development minutes in the event of foul trouble and/or injuries. Thornton was not only our starting SG since he arrived, he was also the team's leading scorer. And as a 23 year old at the start of his NBA career, getting him re-signed could be the most pressing need for the team this off-season. Most of the discussion here so far has revolved around filling our needs at SF with a steady veteran player like Kirilenko, Prince, or Battier. This would push the Greene/Casspi duo back to the bench since neither one seems ready to assume the starting role at this point in their careers. It also seems likely that one of them will be traded since there aren't enough minutes for two inconsistent young players who play the same position to both find their role on the team. So far I'm not disagreeing with the majority opinion on the best course of action for this pivotal off-season. But this is where I throw out the curveball...

What if, instead of re-signing Dalembert to reprise his (no doubt, very valuable) role as Cousins' frontcourt buddy we instead make an offer to lure Greg Oden from Portland? Portland is going to try to re-sign him, but we have the capspace to make an offer that they won't match. If Greg Oden is healthy, there's not a better player in this free agent class. Obviously he's a long ways from healthy, so the question is, how big of a contract for how many years would be a calculated risk worth taking?

Well, what do we know about Greg Oden up to this point in his career? He's currently 23 years old. He was tagged as a once-in-a-decade franchise center coming out of high school. Since Portland made him the first overall pick in the 2007 draft he's played a total of 82 games out of a possible 328 in 4 seasons due to various injuries. Those injuries include... micro-fracture surgery on his right knee, missed entire rookie season... two weeks for foot injury...three weeks for chipped kneecap...fractured left patella on Dec 5th, missed rest of season...microfracture surgery on left knee. In the few NBA games he has played he's put up career bests of 24 points, 20 rebounds, and 6 blocks.

So while the risk is huge, the potential reward is pretty significant as well. Having succesfully tested out a twin towers lineup with Dalembert and Cousins, there shouldn't be a problem fitting Oden and Cousins into the same frontcourt. We have the frontcourt depth already in place to limit his minutes and bring him back slowly. And the presence of Whiteside as shot-blocker in waiting off the bench at least gives us a backup plan if Oden does wash out. There should still be enough money regardless to re-sign Thornton and that leaves our lottery pick and possible trade assets in Casspi, Garcia, or Greene to solve the SF problem. If the plan is to take the BPA with the draft pick and go after a vetern SF like the names listed above, there should still be enough remaining cap space to do that barring an apocalyptic slashing of the salary cap via new CBA negotiations in which case 80% of the league would be maxed out anyway and we'd still have major negotiating leverage with available free agents.

It's certainly not the safest move for the franchise at this very important crossroads, but the point I wanted to make is that going after Greg Oden with our free agent money this off-season wouldn't be betting the farm, and it wouldn't be a move that we can't recover from if it backfires. This plan isn't contingent on us getting lucky in the lottery or fleecing some other poor GM in a trade and it has a bigger potential impact on this team's ability to compete for a title than any other realistic move I can think of.

 

[mac]

Interesting choice in Oden. Right now I think it's safer for us to simply resign Dalembert. I'm not sure how much it would cost for us to sign Oden, but I think the risk far outweighs the rewards right now, because even Jeff Foster is more healthy than him now.

The problem is not so much in having "wasted" money on Oden. It's more so losing the opportunity to keep Dalembert, when he's proven that he fits well with the team, and also losing someone that works well with Cousins and can teach him a lot. You mentioned Veteran leadership, well getting Oden instead of Dalembert essentially takes away a lot of that veteran leadership.

If Oden gets injured (or rather if he doesn't get healthy), we'll be stuck with a front court of Cousins, Thompson, Hassan (who has played how many games? And this isn't Blake Griffin we're talking about) and Darnell Jackson. Not exactly a line up that is going to win you a lot of games. And by then, it'll be too late for us to get a good big man in free agency.

Hope I interpreted your suggestion correctly - that instead of getting Dalembert we make an offer to Oden.

 

[KingsCitizen]

I would jump on the Oden wagon only if Dalembert does a premadonna demand that would drastically put our cap space in danger. It would be less dangerous especially if Oden comes in cheaper than his contract now and if somehow Petrie decides to get a PF/C in this draft. I wouldn't sign him as a starter but rather for the purpose of having a legit depth like Boston stacking aging Shaq and JO at a manageable contracts.

 

[William Blake]

My guess is that someone will badly overpay him.

 

[Bricklayer]

ONLY if we can't get back Dalembert. Dalembert is a steady vet, he provides stability to go along with the size/defense. Greg Oden is the ultimate wildcard. If we can't resign Daly, then would I take a look? Sure. But we are a team almost inevitably on the way up with all the young talent we have accumulated. And taking out a big chunk of our cash to gamble it on Oden is one of the few ways we could screw ourselves over if he goes down again. Not only do we lose the money, but that absolutely critical interior defender role (I would like to assume that people are noticing the critical role al the defensive speciialists are playing in this playoffs) goes unfilled if he falls apart. Essentially I don't think we are a team that needs to take that risk. We don't need a homerun out of that spot anymore. We need a dependable roleplayer who knows what he's about.

Obviously if he came cheap I would cheerfully welcome him onthe team as a big #4 or soem such, but that's not the way of things. There are rumos he might stil get a 4yr $40mil offer from Portland (although I would just have to think incentive laden).

 

[Fear the Putin]

He is still 5 months away from running. So, he won't even resume basketball related activities maybe until October, possibly later.

What I've seen from him when he was playing makes me want to give him a max contract. But, there are two problems. The first being that he may very well get injured once again and the second being that no one knows if he will come back to playing on that same level. Sure, he's 23 and not the 30-31 year old that Webber was when he got injured, but the amount of surgeries/injuries that he's had is just mind boggling.

 

[bajaden]

NO! I'm sorry, but the risk is way too high. Its rumored that Portland is going to offer Oden a four year contract at 40 mil. I'm not a math wiz but to my aging eyes, thats 10 mil a year. I'm not willing to pay 10 mil a year to a player thats averaged 27.3 games a year for the three years he's been in the NBA. I'd like to point out that injuries are nothing new to Oden. He was injuried in highschool and also in college. For 3 mil a year, I'm willing to gamble. But if the amount rumored is true, then number one, I think Portland is crazy, and number two, I think we'd be crazy to take such a huge gamble.

 

[Glenn]

Why gamble on damaged goods? Signing Oden has the significant potential of ruing a well done rebuild.

 

[captain bill]

we've got dally and cuz, jt and whiteside, and another high pick if we want to grab a big. we should develop what we've got rather than grossly overpaying for a broke-down one-legged center

 

[hrdboild]

I understand the gut reaction of most people is going to be a no, or even a hell no. But consider this-- the alternative is re-signing Dalembert, correct? Dalembert averaged 24 minutes per game this season, 8 points, 8 rebounds, 1.5 blocks. Is he an important piece of the team? Of course. But is he irreplaceable? We have a guy sitting on our bench already getting no minutes who led the NCAA in blocked shots as a freshman. His 5.4 blocks per game would have led the NCAA in any of the last 4 years (and 8 of the last 10). I wouldn't hand him the keys to the starting center spot out of the gate, but his presence should at least be a consideration as we ponder locking in Dalembert and Cousins for the next 5 years. And if we do lose Dalembert and Oden fizzles out, we're not without other (inexpensive) options.

When he's healthy Greg Oden is a Dwight Howard level defensive presence in the post. He would quite capably fill the role that Dalembert filled this year and then some. At 23 years old he still might have a hall-of-fame NBA career ahead of him. It doesn't look likely right now, but is there ever going to be a better chance to buy low on a franchise center prospect with all-NBA defense? Not likely. You pass up this opportunity and it doesn't come back again.

We are in ideal position to make a big splash with most of our payroll cleared out and two star youngsters (and another high lottery pick coming) locked into rookie contracts for the next 2,3 years. Looking at the current free agent list, there are no big splashes available. I'm not thrilled about the idea of divvying up our hard-earned cap space into mid-level deals for mid-level players. Would it be the worst decision in the world to sink 10 million out of our 30 million in available cap space on a possible franchise center who hasn't been able to stay healthy for four years?

I'm not calling it a slam dunk of a deal, but I think it's worth considering. Worst-case scenario we still have Cousins, Tyreke, (hopefully) Thornton, this year's draft pick, Whiteside, and another 10 million or so to sign a veteran (AK, Battier, Prince). That's still an improving team with or without Oden, but with Oden it could be one of the best lineups in the league-- on offense and on defense.

 

[Bricklayer]

I understand the gut reaction of most people is going to be a no, or even a hell no. But consider this-- the alternative is re-signing Dalembert, correct? Dalembert averaged 24 minutes per game this season, 8 points, 8 rebounds, 1.5 blocks. Is he an important piece of the team? Of course. But is he irreplaceable? We have a guy sitting on our bench already getting no minutes who led the NCAA in blocked shots as a freshman. His 5.4 blocks per game would have led the NCAA in any of the last 4 years (and 8 of the last 10). I wouldn't hand him the keys to the starting center spot out of the gate, but his presence should at least be a consideration as we ponder locking in Dalembert and Cousins for the next 5 years. And if we do lose Dalembert and Oden fizzles out, we're not without other (inexpensive) options.

When he's healthy Greg Oden is a Dwight Howard level defensive presence in the post. He would quite capably fill the role that Dalembert filled this year and then some. At 23 years old he still might have a hall-of-fame NBA career ahead of him. It doesn't look likely right now, but is there ever going to be a better chance to buy low on a franchise center prospect with all-NBA defense? Not likely. You pass up this opportunity and it doesn't come back again.

We are in ideal position to make a big splash with most of our payroll cleared out and two star youngsters (and another high lottery pick coming) locked into rookie contracts for the next 2,3 years. Looking at the current free agent list, there are no big splashes available. I'm not thrilled about the idea of divvying up our hard-earned cap space into mid-level deals for mid-level players. Would it be the worst decision in the world to sink 10 million out of our 30 million in available cap space on a possible franchise center who hasn't been able to stay healthy for four years?

I'm not calling it a slam dunk of a deal, but I think it's worth considering. Worst-case scenario we still have Cousins, Tyreke, (hopefully) Thornton, this year's draft pick, Whiteside, and another 10 million or so to sign a veteran (AK, Battier, Prince). That's still an improving team with or without Oden, but with Oden it could be one of the best lineups in the league-- on offense and on defense.

Daly is fairly irreplaceable yes. Not only being experienced and dependable in his role (and being a good guy does not hurt). But being athletic and versatile enough to entirely take the defensive pressure off of Cousins. Which basically means he can play alongside him, and he can guard the toughest big on the other team, whether he be PF or C. Many of the similar shotblocker/rebounders out there really can't do that. Oden certainly can't -- he's a pure C. And Whiteside is just a big x-factor right now. You simply cannot scuttle a good thing you've got going to rely on him. If he blossoms, wonderful, then we go 4 deep, and in a year or two you can look to move Daly or JT to make room for him. But right now? No way.

Last summer, before we got Cousins, I was not only open to the idea of getting Oden, but wondered if we could get him for JT and a pick. We had no bigs, we were at the bottom and desperately needed to hit a home run, and lost in the injuries is the fact that when healthy, Oden was looking dominant. But we are not there anywhere. We don't need this risk, we have something to lose right now. Our frontcourt was flat out GOOD down the back half of the year, and as Cousins grows up it could be every bit as dominant as the Memphis group causing so many problems in these playoffs. Sometimes you just have to let things settle and percolate.

 

[bajaden]

I have great sympathy for Oden, and the Blazers. But right now he's pie in the sky. Portland is between a rock and a hard place. They've already invested millions in Oden and have basicly, gotten nothing for their money. He didn't play at all last season, and can't even start running until the end of september. Essentially, he's almost still a rookie, when you look at his total minutes played. He's going to be seriously out of shape, and loaded with rust.

Portland has until june 30th to tender a qualifying offer, which has to be at least 8.8 million dollars. If extended to 4 years with normal raises, it adds up to 40 million. If, Portland decides to tender that offer, then we would have to beat that offer to lure Oden away. So now were looking at what? 11, 12 million average a year for 4 years. Sorry, I don't think so. Thats a chunk of change for a guy that spends more time on the bench than the coach does.

 

[twslam07]

If I could quote myself from an earlier post, "I know what you are thinking about Oden. He has only played 82 games in his first 4 seasons. We do not need that kind of train wreck in Sacramento, but believe it or not Oden is next to some pretty intriguing names on the "fewest games played for an overall first pick in his first 4 seasons." He actually is tied with David Robinson with 82 games in his first 4 seasons, followed by Webber only playing 145 games in his first 4 seasons as a former 1st overall selection. Next on the list is Bill Walton at 151 games and Mychal Thompson coming in at 5th with 152 games. I am not saying Oden is going to be as good as these guys because he has been hurt so much these past 4 years. I am just saying do not count him out just yet because we could be missing out on the next Robinson or Webber."

I'm definitely open to looking into Oden, but I don't think he should be our first choice.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

NO! I'm sorry, but the risk is way too high. Its rumored that Portland is going to offer Oden a four year contract at 40 mil. I'm not a math wiz but to my aging eyes, thats 10 mil a year. I'm not willing to pay 10 mil a year to a player thats averaged 27.3 games a year for the three years he's been in the NBA. I'd like to point out that injuries are nothing new to Oden. He was injuried in highschool and also in college. For 3 mil a year, I'm willing to gamble. But if the amount rumored is true, then number one, I think Portland is crazy, and number two, I think we'd be crazy to take such a huge gamble.

Wow I hadn't heard that!!! That's insane tying up that much on one guy who may be another year away from playing for a team that is stuck in the middle of the pack. Then again they don't really have cap flexibility so hang on to what you got? I thought maybe he'd take a "home team discount" since he's basically been paid 4 years to play one and he seems like a classy guy. But gotta get paid and I guess this is his best chance barring full recovery.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

If I could quote myself from an earlier post, "I know what you are thinking about Oden. He has only played 82 games in his first 4 seasons. We do not need that kind of train wreck in Sacramento, but believe it or not Oden is next to some pretty intriguing names on the "fewest games played for an overall first pick in his first 4 seasons." He actually is tied with David Robinson with 82 games in his first 4 seasons, followed by Webber only playing 145 games in his first 4 seasons as a former 1st overall selection. Next on the list is Bill Walton at 151 games and Mychal Thompson coming in at 5th with 152 games. I am not saying Oden is going to be as good as these guys because he has been hurt so much these past 4 years. I am just saying do not count him out just yet because we could be missing out on the next Robinson or Webber."

I'm definitely open to looking into Oden, but I don't think he should be our first choice.

Is David Robinson's start date the year he was drafted or the year he got out of the Navy and played his first game?

 

[Larry89]

We already have cousins, who plays the same position, how would the Kings play Oden/Cousins?

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Is David Robinson's start date the year he was drafted or the year he got out of the Navy and played his first game?

If you want "he played 82 games his first four seasons" to be true, you'd actually have to start counting the year BEFORE he was drafted. Robinson was drafted in 1987, but didn't start playing until the '89-'90 season due to his Navy commitments. In the first four seasons after he was drafted he played in 164 games. Through his age-30 season (7 seasons) he missed a total of 17 games. Not exactly a good comparison for an injury case.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

If you want "he played 82 games his first four seasons" to be true, you'd actually have to start counting the year BEFORE he was drafted. Robinson was drafted in 1987, but didn't start playing until the '89-'90 season due to his Navy commitments. In the first four seasons after he was drafted he played in 164 games. Through his age-30 season (7 seasons) he missed a total of 17 games. Not exactly a good comparison for an injury case.

Yeah, my recollection was him turning that team into immediate fringe contenders and not missing all that much up until the big injury that lead to them drafting Duncan.

 

[mac]

We already have cousins, who plays the same position, how would the Kings play Oden/Cousins?

The same way we play Dalembert/Cousins??

 

[rainmaker]

Obviously, the only way we consider going after Oden is if Dally doesn't return. Now, if before draft day, Petrie can get a commitment one way or the other on if Dally will resign, that affects everything. If Petrie feels Dally will walk, I'd rather draft Kanter, who reminds me of a young Marc Gasol, but in better shape. Much rather do that than blow $40M on Oden.

If Petrie thinks Dally will resign, then do something else with the pick. I say try to trade it with Omri for a vet sf, if it isn't top 2. If it is top 2, take Irving or Williams. We've waited too long to have this cap space, and opportunity to really fill some needs. Throwing $10M per at a center who plays as much as Yao is not a smart move. Far too risky, and the risk IMO outweighs the reward.

 

[funkykingston]

I'll echo the sentiment that if Dalembert weren't in the picture it could very well be a gamble worth taking, but with the opportunity to bring back Sammy I'd opt for that route every time.

If Petrie had not traded for Dally and we had just completed another season with Spencer Hawes, I'd be willing to take this kind of risk, assuming Portland really isn't going to offer him 4 years $40 million. That is beyond risky for a guy with Oden's injury history and wouldn't consider it unless Oden hit the open market without a real bidding war. That said, at his age it is possible that he could recover fully and have a great career. And picking up a young, elite center on the cheap (relatively speaking - say just above MLE money) is virtually unheard of.

But with Dalembert in the picture it makes much less sense. Look at it this way. Even if fully healthy, how much more production does Oden give you than Sammy? Certainly not enough to gamble on a guy who I'd be concerned about even passing a routine physical at this point. Yes, Oden is seven years younger, but Dalembert can likely be effective for another 5 to 6 years which would be the life of the contract for either guy and certainly the biggest window for Evans and Cousins to succeed.

I'll always admit when I'm wrong and I was flat out wrong about Dalembert and Cousins playing well together. We KNOW that combination works and I like JT as the third big and Whiteside as the developmental prospect. We need someone in Jackson's role that is hopefully a upgrade, but otherwise I wouldn't break up our bigman rotation - certainly not for a swing for the fences type move.

Somebody will gamble big bucks on Oden and may even strike gold. But I don't want to see Petrie taking that risk when I like what we have.

Edit: I'm operating under the assumption that Dalembert will return to the team. He's got a starting role and good minutes, has played well for the Kings and they have a ton of caproom so I can't see that he wouldn't. But if I'm looking at a situation where he doesn't return? Then I don't know if I'd go after Oden. Depending on the price I very well might hold my nose and sign him if I'm Geoff. At worst it's a Barry Zito type deal where he never lives up to his contract and anything he gives you is a bonus. It wouldn't keep the Kings from resigning Evans or Cousins, so maybe it's worth it in that case.

 

[bajaden]

I'll echo the sentiment that if Dalembert weren't in the picture it could very well be a gamble worth taking, but with the opportunity to bring back Sammy I'd opt for that route every time.

If Petrie had not traded for Dally and we had just completed another season with Spencer Hawes, I'd be willing to take this kind of risk, assuming Portland really isn't going to offer him 4 years $40 million. That is beyond risky for a guy with Oden's injury history and wouldn't consider it unless Oden hit the open market without a real bidding war. That said, at his age it is possible that he could recover fully and have a great career. And picking up a young, elite center on the cheap (relatively speaking - say just above MLE money) is virtually unheard of.

But with Dalembert in the picture it makes much less sense. Look at it this way. Even if fully healthy, how much more production does Oden give you than Sammy? Certainly not enough to gamble on a guy who I'd be concerned about even passing a routine physical at this point. Yes, Oden is seven years younger, but Dalembert can likely be effective for another 5 to 6 years which would be the life of the contract for either guy and certainly the biggest window for Evans and Cousins to succeed.

I'll always admit when I'm wrong and I was flat out wrong about Dalembert and Cousins playing well together. We KNOW that combination works and I like JT as the third big and Whiteside as the developmental prospect. We need someone in Jackson's role that is hopefully a upgrade, but otherwise I wouldn't break up our bigman rotation - certainly not for a swing for the fences type move.

Somebody will gamble big bucks on Oden and may even strike gold. But I don't want to see Petrie taking that risk when I like what we have.

Edit: I'm operating under the assumption that Dalembert will return to the team. He's got a starting role and good minutes, has played well for the Kings and they have a ton of caproom so I can't see that he wouldn't. But if I'm looking at a situation where he doesn't return? Then I don't know if I'd go after Oden. Depending on the price I very well might hold my nose and sign him if I'm Geoff. At worst it's a Barry Zito type deal where he never lives up to his contract and anything he gives you is a bonus. It wouldn't keep the Kings from resigning Evans or Cousins, so maybe it's worth it in that case.

When I said that Portland is between a rock and a hard place, I wasn't kidding. Under normal circumstances, I don't think they would make a qualifying offer. But when you look at their total salaries, and who they have to play center, I think they almost have to. Entering the offseason, without making a qualifying offer, their total salaries are $66,148,192.00. Well over last years cap. Even if they were to raise the cap as a concession to the players in exchange for something else, they would still probably be over, or right at the cap. If, god forbid, the mid-level exception is done away with, then they're really screwed. Meaning, they would have little to sign anyone with.

Now considering that Marcus Camby is the only center on their roster, and that he is getting a little long in tooth, the only option they might have is to make a qualifying offer to Oden. And under the old CBA, the minumum offer would have to be 8.8 million a year. Projected out to 4 years, and it comes to 40 mil. Now we could certainly bid against them, but I think we would be crazy to do so. I don't think they would offer that much, but if they want him back, they have no choice. If they give up his rights and try and get him cheaper on the open market, they have no money to bid with, unless the new CBA retains the mid-level eception, and if one team beats that amount, they lose him.

They saw how far the current team took them in the playoffs this year. If they don't improve, there's no reason to believe they'll go any farther next year. They have some tough decisions to make.

 

[Bricklayer]

When I said that Portland is between a rock and a hard place, I wasn't kidding. Under normal circumstances, I don't think they would make a qualifying offer. But when you look at their total salaries, and who they have to play center, I think they almost have to. Entering the offseason, without making a qualifying offer, their total salaries are $66,148,192.00. Well over last years cap. Even if they were to raise the cap as a concession to the players in exchange for something else, they would still probably be over, or right at the cap. If, god forbid, the mid-level exception is done away with, then they're really screwed. Meaning, they would have little to sign anyone with.

Now considering that Marcus Camby is the only center on their roster, and that he is getting a little long in tooth, the only option they might have is to make a qualifying offer to Oden. And under the old CBA, the minumum offer would have to be 8.8 million a year. Projected out to 4 years, and it comes to 40 mil. Now we could certainly bid against them, but I think we would be crazy to do so. I don't think they would offer that much, but if they want him back, they have no choice. If they give up his rights and try and get him cheaper on the open market, they have no money to bid with, unless the new CBA retains the mid-level eception, and if one team beats that amount, they lose him.

They saw how far the current team took them in the playoffs this year. If they don't improve, there's no reason to believe they'll go any farther next year. They have some tough decisions to make.

The irony is that Portland is a far better team than we are right now, but they ARE in a swing for the fences type position. They are stuck, with no real realsitic way to continue advancing without some sort of homerun. For them such a gamble makes sense. Roy may never be himself. They're other centers are seriously aging. They need Oden the Great or they may start slipsliding back down the slope.

We're in a much better positon for the future than they are. For us swing for the fences" risks that future. Portland does not have a bright future without Oden. For them its a gamble that either saves them or not, but it doesn't mess up a good thing they have going.

 

[Bricklayer]

Obviously, the only way we consider going after Oden is if Dally doesn't return. Now, if before draft day, Petrie can get a commitment one way or the other on if Dally will resign, that affects everything. If Petrie feels Dally will walk, I'd rather draft Kanter, who reminds me of a young Marc Gasol, but in better shape. Much rather do that than blow $40M on Oden.

If we can't get back Daly we aren't goign to need a young Marc Gasol, we are going to need a repalcement defensive goalie to protect Cousins.

 

[hrdboild]

The irony is that Portland is a far better team than we are right now, but they ARE in a swing for the fences type position. They are stuck, with no real realsitic way to continue advancing without some sort of homerun. For them such a gamble makes sense. Roy may never be himself. They're other centers are seriously aging. They need Oden the Great or they may start slipsliding back down the slope.

We're in a much better positon for the future than they are. For us swing for the fences" risks that future. Portland does not have a bright future without Oden. For them its a gamble that either saves them or not, but it doesn't mess up a good thing they have going.

Which is exactly why I think Oden needs to leave Portland. He'll probably get booed for it, but nobody can live with the kind of pressure they've put on him to be the franchise savior. I think the odds of him making a recovery are much lower if he has to stay in Portland even one more year. He needs a fresh start somewhere new just like Chris Webber did.

 

[bajaden]

Which is exactly why I think Oden needs to leave Portland. He'll probably get booed for it, but nobody can live with the kind of pressure they've put on him to be the franchise savior. I think the odds of him making a recovery are much lower if he has to stay in Portland even one more year. He needs a fresh start somewhere new just like Chris Webber did.

While what you say may be true, Portland is probably the only team that would offer him 40 mil for 4 years. And players tend to follow the money. In his case, and with his history, its probably the prudent thing to do.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Which is exactly why I think Oden needs to leave Portland. He'll probably get booed for it, but nobody can live with the kind of pressure they've put on him to be the franchise savior. I think the odds of him making a recovery are much lower if he has to stay in Portland even one more year. He needs a fresh start somewhere new just like Chris Webber did.

Yet fans still love the guy and are hoping it will work. So I don't think its really comparable to Webber who had grown a negative image prior to coming to Sac.

 

[hrdboild]

Yet fans still love the guy and are hoping it will work. So I don't think its really comparable to Webber who had grown a negative image prior to coming to Sac.

Webber needed a fresh start because of his attitude. And it seemed to work out well for him. Oden needs a fresh start because of the weight of expectation (and the Sam Bowie history isn't doing him any favors). It's not a perfect analogy but I think a change of scenery can sometimes be like a second chance. I know a lot of fans still support him up there. He didn't try to get injured. But he's been walking in and out of the same training rooms for four years watching teammates come and go, talking to reporters about the same questions. You know it has to be wearing him down. Even if he does recover physically from the surgeries, will he be in shape mentally to compete like nothing ever happened? I think he can do it in Portland, but it'd be so much easier on him with a new team.

 

[mr. moustache]

If we can't get back Daly we aren't goign to need a young Marc Gasol, we are going to need a repalcement defensive goalie to protect Cousins.

Right. We may as well just sign Marc Gasol if we're looking for a young Marc Gasol. Too bad it's a bad fit next to Cousins. Too bad too because I've been enjoying watching his game in the playoffs.

 

[bajaden]

Right. We may as well just sign Marc Gasol if we're looking for a young Marc Gasol. Too bad it's a bad fit next to Cousins. Too bad too because I've been enjoying watching his game in the playoffs.

If, in the event we can't resign Dalembert, the I think my next choice might be Tyson Chandler, who is also an unrestricted freeagent. He played pretty well this year, and is also younger than Dalembert. The only question would be his health, as he's had a history of injuries