Monte McNair
- Thread starter Tetsujin
- Start date
A lot if hand-wringing over this 2031 pick swap with comments like “they gave away a first pick” which is just plainly untrue.
Sure, in 2031 San Antonio could win the Finals while the Kings “win” the lottery, so the world champion Spurs swap for the first pick, cementing a decade’s long dynasty, as the Kings pick 32nd*** to continue the misery of wallowing in sub-mediocrity, and that would undoubtedly suck.
But so would DeRozan blowing out his knee this preseason, ending his career in an instant while Chris Duarte mystically becomes an All-Star for the Bulls or Harrison Barnes “mentors” his way to a deep Spurs playoff run.
All trades are about measured and calculated risks. With that in mind, there is more of a chance of the swap not happening (Kings finish higher than Spurs), being of relatively minimal impact (Spurs finish within 1-4 spots of Kings), or being of crappy but recoverable impact (Spurs finish with 5-9 spots of the Kings) than something utterly crippling happening (Kings forced to swap 10+ spots back to Spurs). Even then, it still all comes down to who the team picks at the biggest craps table of them all.
The last time the Kings fandom and the national press united to have a collective conniption over Vlade’s disaster of a pick swap to the Sixers, the Kings moved down 2 spots and wound up with Fox.
(Yes, the Celtics took Tatum in the King’s original 3 spot, but the Sixers went with Fultz after trading up to 1, so I’d say they were the real losers of the swap in the end).
***I’m also supposing by 2031 Seattle and Vegas are in the league. Since we’re trying to prognosticate nearly 7 years into the future, let’s go for broke.
Sure, in 2031 San Antonio could win the Finals while the Kings “win” the lottery, so the world champion Spurs swap for the first pick, cementing a decade’s long dynasty, as the Kings pick 32nd*** to continue the misery of wallowing in sub-mediocrity, and that would undoubtedly suck.
But so would DeRozan blowing out his knee this preseason, ending his career in an instant while Chris Duarte mystically becomes an All-Star for the Bulls or Harrison Barnes “mentors” his way to a deep Spurs playoff run.
All trades are about measured and calculated risks. With that in mind, there is more of a chance of the swap not happening (Kings finish higher than Spurs), being of relatively minimal impact (Spurs finish within 1-4 spots of Kings), or being of crappy but recoverable impact (Spurs finish with 5-9 spots of the Kings) than something utterly crippling happening (Kings forced to swap 10+ spots back to Spurs). Even then, it still all comes down to who the team picks at the biggest craps table of them all.
The last time the Kings fandom and the national press united to have a collective conniption over Vlade’s disaster of a pick swap to the Sixers, the Kings moved down 2 spots and wound up with Fox.
(Yes, the Celtics took Tatum in the King’s original 3 spot, but the Sixers went with Fultz after trading up to 1, so I’d say they were the real losers of the swap in the end).
***I’m also supposing by 2031 Seattle and Vegas are in the league. Since we’re trying to prognosticate nearly 7 years into the future, let’s go for broke.
The main point of giving up a pick swap would to make sure the Kings are a playoff team come 2031. If we are a perennial playoff team, then swapping say the #21 pick for the #27th would be worth getting DDR today. Now Monte and the Kings have great motivation to stay good and relevant 7 years from now.
There is a terrific (paywall) Anthony Slater article on The Athletic about the behind the scenes work to get DDR. Those of you who think Monte is some “in over his head rube” absolutely need to read it. It is super clear that Monte had an offseason plan and skillfully navigated it.
Lauri was his first choice. Monte made his best offer (no Keegan) to Utah, and put a clock on it. He didn’t want Ainge to delay things so that there weren’t options. When Ainge didn’t respond in time, Monte pivoted to DDR. That is critical since a big part of this board just assumed Monte was some naive guy getting played by Ainge. Also interesting that the BI rumors seem like mostly rumors. Lauri was the target and then we pivoted to DDR, who Monte knew had mutual interest.
On DDR, it was Monte who found the third team to facilitate the trade. He also organized a great recruiting pitch, including calls from guys like Triano and Barbosa (who know DDR), to having Triano pick up DDR at the airport, to having DDR watch a Fox workout with Loukas, to a lunch with Fox.
I hope you read the article and finally appreciate that our GM knows what he is doing. The stage isn’t too big for him.
Lauri was his first choice. Monte made his best offer (no Keegan) to Utah, and put a clock on it. He didn’t want Ainge to delay things so that there weren’t options. When Ainge didn’t respond in time, Monte pivoted to DDR. That is critical since a big part of this board just assumed Monte was some naive guy getting played by Ainge. Also interesting that the BI rumors seem like mostly rumors. Lauri was the target and then we pivoted to DDR, who Monte knew had mutual interest.
On DDR, it was Monte who found the third team to facilitate the trade. He also organized a great recruiting pitch, including calls from guys like Triano and Barbosa (who know DDR), to having Triano pick up DDR at the airport, to having DDR watch a Fox workout with Loukas, to a lunch with Fox.
I hope you read the article and finally appreciate that our GM knows what he is doing. The stage isn’t too big for him.
There's only a few here who don't appreciate the work Monte does.
My main takeaway is while Monte is not perfect, he's laid the groundwork for a successful team; something that's only happened one other time in our franchises history. As a fan, I appreciate getting to root for winning basketball and a team that's actually trying to make smart moves to go win games.
My main takeaway is while Monte is not perfect, he's laid the groundwork for a successful team; something that's only happened one other time in our franchises history. As a fan, I appreciate getting to root for winning basketball and a team that's actually trying to make smart moves to go win games.
Good stuff and thanks for sharing. I do think that it’s a small but vocal group who think Monte has been getting played all these years. I mentioned in another thread that I think Monte has his plan and he sticks to it which is why we read so many tweets that we are close on deals in the past. Monte is the one who has been in control all this time and this was the off-season he was going to strike. Does getting DDR and drafting Carter work out in the end? Won’t know until we see it through but on paper, this is a massive win for Monte and should, I say SHOULD, put to rest any questions about his ability.
I think there are a lot of folks who forget that trades need to be accepted by both sides and that this isn't NBA2K or whatever. Monte has shown with both the Sabonis trade and the DeRozan trade that he's willing to make some big moves to shake things up, even if it involves fan favorites (Hali and Barnes [total pro and great dude, even if his production is slipping]). But he doesn't do things willy-nilly - he has a plan and sticks to it. He also doesn't share a lot of what's going on; I think some take this for inaction instead of competent professionalism. I think he is better than a lot of folks give him credit for.
lot of low probability what ifs but whatever.
I don’t hate the trade as we had to do something to fill the hole at 3. I blame Monte for creating such a hole but given the current situation I think it was among the better alternatives.
as for the trade being low risk I have it slightly higher risk than some. The Kings have historically operated with an extremely short time line and this trade is no different. Better for my season ticket enjoyment this year however.
I don’t hate the trade as we had to do something to fill the hole at 3. I blame Monte for creating such a hole but given the current situation I think it was among the better alternatives.
as for the trade being low risk I have it slightly higher risk than some. The Kings have historically operated with an extremely short time line and this trade is no different. Better for my season ticket enjoyment this year however.
That’s a no for me dawg.
We have more than enough offense. If we are talking purely scoring/shooting, how many teams have a better top four than Fox/DDR/Monk/Keegan? I don’t think many. How about passing? How about rebounding? We were near the top on the boards and we added Carter the best rebounding guard in the draft by a mile and DDR who is slightly better than HB. We need the rest of our roster to be filled with defense and shooting. That’s it.
We have more than enough offense. If we are talking purely scoring/shooting, how many teams have a better top four than Fox/DDR/Monk/Keegan? I don’t think many. How about passing? How about rebounding? We were near the top on the boards and we added Carter the best rebounding guard in the draft by a mile and DDR who is slightly better than HB. We need the rest of our roster to be filled with defense and shooting. That’s it.
This deal speaks to Monte's view of this team more than likely. I think he's viewing it the right way. He sees this as a 2-3 year chunk kind of thing. The Kings now see what it looks like and they probably have a year or two to figure it out. If it works, it works, if not, he can still afford to tinker since outside of his current picks he's not stuck there anymore. Monte's mistake last season was going pretty much all in cap wise with what he had and then watch as Brown started maneuvering away from guys like Barnes, Huerter, while not providing a guarantee for someone like Sasha to build value and the values sunk. It didn't work and yes, he had to give up some value just to get out of it and change course. Now, Monte can't just stack and stack and stack. I know it looks great on paper to overpay an 11th man because of "need", but we've seen this time and time again. More often than not it just hurts you. If they play it means a much more deeply invested player is failing, or that 11th man is just watching the game most nights. It was always this way but especially now with the apron thing, you want those 10-13 guys to be a mix of min. vets and youth.
I will bet my money Monk will not be a starter when the season start. The reason? His defense is bad. There is too much holes that the team need to stop when he's out there. The ONLY time he gets to start is if you SURROUND him with good defenders but you're not. With the exception of Fox and Murray, everyone on the floor isn't that great. If you have him on the floor, someone is looking attack him...penetrate, kick out and you're toast. It's better to start Ellis to boaster the team overall defense.
Plus, it's better to roll back with the same script which is him coming off the bench to help with the scoring off the bench and may have easier time of scoring for him than against the other team's starters. And if Huerter is still around, the Kings might even start Huerter once again just because he's unguardable when he come around at the top of the key with the Sabonis screening. What Huerter need to improve is his floater...if he can perfect that, it makes the team that much more potent.
Plus, it's better to roll back with the same script which is him coming off the bench to help with the scoring off the bench and may have easier time of scoring for him than against the other team's starters. And if Huerter is still around, the Kings might even start Huerter once again just because he's unguardable when he come around at the top of the key with the Sabonis screening. What Huerter need to improve is his floater...if he can perfect that, it makes the team that much more potent.
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If Huerter is still on the team come opening night I still think Brown goes with him just to see what it looks like. Malik will get plenty of chances to play with everyone but yeah, he's seen his rise come as an energy 6th man. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Now, what's naturally going to happen is if Monk has an up and down month to month kind of season like he had last year people are going to call for his head because of how much he's making. Fans are going to fan, lol. It's amazing what happens when someone starts making double the money. The thing about a player like him is 1 make or miss on average can change him from being insanely efficient to low 40's. Very streaky.
Yeah, I've felt that way the whole time. Maybe a bad camp from him, or a great camp from someone else changes that but Brown has always been very loyal to his rotation guys even if it makes more sense to move on. Most of the 5 man stats still back up trying it out as well so it does make some kind of sense.
If we shipped an unprotected to Chicago in 2031 nobody would blink. The optics of the swap look bad, and IF (a huge if) the league has added Vegas and Seattle, the Spurs win the title in 2031, and the Kings stink and win the lotto first overall pick, it would look 10 million times worse than if we had just done the former.
Even knowing that worst case scenario is a remote possibility making that the reason to pan the trade is idiotic. Just as likely we blow up the planet right now.
In soccer talk because I don't know how to explain in NBA, this is almost like getting a national team level player on a free transfer.
Even knowing that worst case scenario is a remote possibility making that the reason to pan the trade is idiotic. Just as likely we blow up the planet right now.
In soccer talk because I don't know how to explain in NBA, this is almost like getting a national team level player on a free transfer.
