Marty Mac: Kings' weaknesses already evident

[VF21]

http://www.kingsfans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22905

Marty Mac's World: Kings' weaknesses already are evident
By Martin McNeal - Bee Columnist
Last Updated 12:06 am PDT Thursday, October 11, 2007
Story appeared in SPORTS section, Page C2

Just one quick peek, which is what we got Tuesday night when the Kings defeated the Seattle SuperSonics 104-98 in the exhibition opener for both teams, makes it clear how much of a crapshoot trying to predict the future can be.

However, a couple of things were abundantly clear.

The only apparent true low-post big men the Kings have were not dressed to play. Veteran Shareef Abdur-Rahim slowly is recovering from offseason knee surgery, and rookie center Spencer Hawes had arthroscopic surgery Wednesday on his left knee.

Abdur-Rahim said Tuesday night his knee felt pretty good, and what the Kings need is their veteran to be ready for the pounding that comes with the regular season.

Sacramento undoubtedly has a lot of firepower, but attempting to win consistently without a dominant low-post player is a dicey proposition at best. Coach Reggie Theus will be able to post Ron Artest, but that's also messing with floor balance on a team that, at least for one preseason game, could not get back on defense.

And exactly how that works -- or doesn't -- boggles my mind. How can you be a weak offensive rebounding squad and still not get back on defense? It's a lack of focus and commitment, and that has to be one of Theus' first dilemmas to solve. It was so bad at times that the Kings weren't even in position to take a foul and prevent an easy layup and/or dunk.

There's no way teams should be able to run the ball back at Sacramento after a made basket with the ease Seattle did. If teams are going to do that, tonight's offensive onslaught brought to you by the Phoenix Suns at Arco Arena should be quite entertaining.

Forward Kenny Thomas has taken his share of hits around this city, but clearly he is the team's best rebounder and, especially while Abdur-Rahim sits, has the opportunity to cement his place at power forward by rebounding like a demon.

Brad Miller's cornrowed hair unfortunately did not improve his ability to hit the boards on this night. Miller cannot accept grabbing just three rebounds in 30 minutes. Yes, he threw some nice passes as the Kings used sharp interior cuts to score, but Miller must rebound better. Miller, Kevin Martin, Mike Bibby and Quincy Douby are not supposed to have the same number of rebounds.

It's difficult to fully assess the effectiveness of teams' halfcourt defenses because so many different units are on the floor and coaches usually have yet to install much of their offense at this juncture.

However, the Kings clearly were attempting to stay in front of their men and help their teammates, and therein lies the key to success. To believe one man is going to stop another consistently is to be naïve about the NBA. Why do you think isolation plays became so popular? Players are too talented and skilled to be successfully guarded by just one player.

Few players survive strictly on their ability to play one-on-one defense. Yet a team that can effectively work as a unit can frustrate some of the league's best scorers. It's tough to always know there will be a defender in your grill. Open and easy shots are the lifelines of every scorer.

Former Kings assistants reappear

Last season was an unadulterated mess from the standpoint of Eric Musselman's coaching staff. When it was all over, current Kings assistant Jason Hamm was the last man standing. The SuperSonics brought assistant Scott Brooks to town with them Tuesday as well as former Kings assistant Ralph Lewis, who worked under Eddie Jordan.

Another Musselman assistant, Mark Hughes, was in the house Tuesday working for the New York Knicks. Hughes said he'll be scouting the West Coast pro and college scene for the Knicks.

Musselman got paid on his way out of the door. The assistants did not.

 

[fnordius]

And exactly how that works -- or doesn't -- boggles my mind. How can you be a weak offensive rebounding squad and still not get back on defense?

If I were Justin Williams, I would be asking Marty how many offensive boards he's expecting SAR and Hawes to make. Hawes made 2.8 per 40 minutes against college opponents; if he gets normal rookie minutes, against NBA opposition I would be happy if he got even one offensive board per game. In 2006-7 SAR averaged 2.4 per 40, so we're looking at a maximum of about 3 boards per game out of those guys. Last year Justin averaged 6.25 offensive boards per 40 minutes, and his name doesn't even make it into the article.

What's with that?

 

[JoMama]

Brad Miller's 3 boards in 30 minutes was the scariest stat in the column. That's just unacceptable. Reggie has to be expecting more production from Miller. It'll be interesting tonight to see if Miller comes out more aggressive. Otherwise, no way Miller should be starting with those embarrassing numbers.

 

[Padrino]

3 boards for brad miller in 30 minutes of preseason play? hm. sounds about right to me...

this is a silly article. everybody knows what the kings weaknesses are, because its the same damn team that took the floor last year, with a few incredibly minor additions. its not "clear how much of a crapshoot trying to predict the future can be," cuz there's nothing to predict that isn't already on every team's scouting report. if the theus experiment pans out this season, he might be able to squeeze some more hustle out of this group of guys (which will be greatly appreciated amongst the dwindling fanbase), but that's not going to amount to much in the win column.

it'll be nice to see if hawes can get on the floor after his fourth knee surgery and have a productive nba career, but there's little else in the way of intrigue as of right now beyond the new head coach's system and method. must miller rebound better? yes. can theus motivate him to do so? maybe. will it matter? not really.

anyway, sorry to be a downer. glad to see the kings get a preseason victory. even if theus can't get the team inspired enough to exert some effort on the defensive end, i hope they can keep the energy levels high. go kings!

 

[bloom]

Has Miller ever been a rebounder? He's a passing and shooting player. I've come to accept that and I think it's hard for any coach can change that, especially at this point in his career.

 

[Bricklayer]

Has Miller ever been a rebounder? He's a passing and shooting player. I've come to accept that and I think it's hard for any coach can change that, especially at this point in his career.

Yes he was actually. Him averaging 10rebs in his first season for us really wasn;t an aberration at that point in his career. It was the first time he'd averaged 10, but he ha been averaging 8+ in preveious years in only about 30min a night (which comes out to about 10 in the 38+ we were playing him). Hard to imagine/see how, but Brad the weenie is really late career stuff. In his younger years he was still ridiculously ineffective as a shotblocker or post player, but he muscled up pretty well on the glass, and may have even had a bit of a cheap shot ill tempered hick rep when it came to thugging people.

 

[PurpleHaze]

Somebody should post Vlade Divac rebound stats vs. Brad Miller rebound stats with the Kings. They are very close to the same #'s - averaging around 6.0 per game. Obviously, neither of these big men were consistently great on the boards throughout their careers.

 

[Bricklayer]

Somebody should post Vlade Divac rebound stats vs. Brad Miller rebound stats with the Kings. They are very close to the same #'s - averaging around 6.0 per game. Obviously, neither of these big men were consistently great on the boards throughout their careers.

Er...think you are mistaken on both counts. Vlade did not dip down that low until his last 2 years when his legs went, and both guys pre-Kings were pretty good rebounders. Vlade in fact had 3 double figure rebounding seasons in his first 10, and would have had more except that he, like Brad, was rarely a major minute center type.

We just liked to complain about Vlade's boardwork because at the time we didn't know what truly crappy boardwork would look like.

Vlade:
89-90 19.7min 6.2reb
90-91 28.2min 8.1reb
91-92 27.2min 6.9reb
92-93 30.8min 8.9reb
93-94 34.0min 10.8reb
94-95 35.0min 10.4reb
95-96 31.3min 8.6reb
96-97 35.1min 9.0reb
97-98 28.2min 8.1reb
98-99 35.2min 10.0reb
99-00 29.0min 8.0reb
00-01 29.9min 8.3reb
01-02 30.2min 8.4reb
02-03 29.8min 7.2reb
03-04 28.6min 5.7reb
04-05 8.7min 2.1reb

*Hihglighted the Kings era in red

 

[PurpleHaze]

Of course, I said RPG w/ the Kings and that neither one was consistently great (maybe good or average) on the boards. I stand by what I said, but will give them both a little more credit than "averaging around 6.0 per game." Make it around 7.0-8.0. These stats are Miller's four seasons with the Kings:

Brad Miller RPG:

03-04 10.4
04-05 9.3
05-06 7.7
06-07 6.4

Miller NBA RPG career ave: 7.6
Divac NBA RPG career ave: 8.2

 

[Bricklayer]

Of course, I said RPG w/ the Kings and that neither one was consistently great (maybe good or average) on the boards. I stand by what I said, but will give them both a little more credit than "averaging around 6.0 per game." Make it around 7.0-8.0. These stats are Miller's four seasons with the Kings:

Brad Miller RPG:

03-04 10.4
04-05 9.3
05-06 7.7
06-07 6.4

Miller NBA RPG career ave: 7.6
Divac NBA RPG career ave: 8.2

Both guys arrived in town as double figure type rebounders if you gave them the minutes. Both deteriorated thereafter. But Vlade remainded at the double figure level for years before age finally zapped him. With Brad its been one long downhill slide.

But removing the minutes they pplayed you are blatantly distorting their stats. Kenny Thomas only averaged 6.1reb/game last year too. Of course he only played 22.8min.

Here is another weakish rebounding center in his first 4 years:

96-97 1.7reb
97-98 4.8reb
98-99 8.3reb
99-00 8.0reb

His name? Ben Wallace. As soon as you ignore the fact he was averaging less than 30min/game you can make anybody look similar.

When I have time in the morning I'll normalize the stats of both guys per 48 over their careers, and the trends will be obvious.

 

[juicij36]

Last season was an unadulterated mess from the standpoint of Eric Musselman's coaching staff. When it was all over, current Kings assistant Jason Hamm was the last man standing. The SuperSonics brought assistant Scott Brooks to town with them Tuesday as well as former Kings assistant Ralph Lewis, who worked under Eddie Jordan.

Another Musselman assistant, Mark Hughes, was in the house Tuesday working for the New York Knicks. Hughes said he'll be scouting the West Coast pro and college scene for the Knicks.

Musselman got paid on his way out of the door. The assistants did not.

REALLY?!

 

[tyrant]

sigh, this is pitiful, bibby was our best rebounder last night with 7. inexcusable for the big men and inexcusable for the coach. i would prefer a williams/hawes front court. 3 rebounds in 30 minutes for a starting center is sickening. *spit*

 

[Bricklayer]

Okay, this may be overkill + belaboring a conceded point, but I said I would do it, so will do it as promised.

Rebounding per 48 for Vlade + Brad over their careers:

(Note: for comparison 10.0rebs in 36min comes out to 13.3/per 48min)

Vlade:
89-90 15.1reb/48
91-92 12.2reb/48
92-93 13.9reb/48
93-94 15.2reb/48
94-95 14.3reb/48
95-96 13.2reb/48
96-97 12.3reb/48
97-98 13.8reb/48
98-99 13.6reb/48
99-00 13.2reb/48
00-01 13.7reb/48
01-02 13.4reb/48
02-03 11.6reb/48
03-04 9.6reb/48
04-05 11.6reb/48

You can see he was actually very consistent as a good rebounder -- right about at the same pace as a 10reb/gm guy in full starter's minutes -- for his first 4 years with us (as well as most of his career). Then his legs started to go, and the numbers plummeted.

Brad:

98-99 12.1reb/48
99-00 14.5reb/48
00-01 14.1reb/48
01-02 13.2reb/48
02-03 12.8reb/48
03-04 13.6reb/48
04-05 12.0reb/48
05-06 10.1reb/48
06-07 10.9reb/48

And again, had a guy show up in Sacto averaging at or above that 10reb in full time starters minutes pace, and had done about that over the bulk of his career. But Brad started into decline immediately, and the three worst rebounding years of his career have been the last three, with the last two going from a mediocre 12.0/per 48 to a very weak 10.1/10.9 per 48 (Jason Kidd, a PG, averaged 10.7/per 48 last year).