ParniValjak
All-Star
I am 100% certain that Luka will NOT fail in the NBA. At worst he is a good starter on any team in the NBA. At best he is an all time European great rivaling Dirk.Their games are totally different but they are both full sized sf with excellent skills, high IQ and questionable athleticism. The knock on Luka is his athleticism will prevent him from being a good defender and a go to scorer. I personally cannot think of any players with his blend of size, skill and iq that failed or plateaued as a solid starter due to being average athletically.
As advanced as Luka's skill level is, I think you can still improve in a lot of areas. His handle could become tighter, shot could be fine tuned and that shot release could be quicker. Footwork is very good but could be sped up a bit more. He could be better shooting coming off screens and He is far from a finished product. His skills have another level or two to get to.
My main concerns are that first step, lateral quickness and body flexibility. Can that be improved enough to be adequate at the next level that will allow him to be a perennial all-star? Even in Europe he is not great at losing his man off the screen, making that hard, quick cut. When the big switches on him in pick and roll, he rarely goes past them and settles for a shot off the dribble. The flexibility part is interesting to me. He seems to be pretty stiff in the upper body, there is no contouring of the body on those drives like say Manu who he gets compared to in some circles.
Bottom line is Luka will not fail. He will not be a bust. He won't be Darko. He will be a very good starter in the NBA but the big question for me is how great can he be. Is he a Hedo Turkoglu or Toni Kukoc at his best, or is he a perennial all-star who is a nightly triple double threat who is also a good defender (not elite but good).
If Doncic had say MPJ's athleticism, he would be a sure #1 pick and while MPJ is a very good athlete, he is far from an athletic freak!