Lotto day countdown!

SLAB

SLAB

Hall of Famer
#271
#271
1, 2, 2, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1

Ten times on the draft sim and a mixed bag.

Lets go 1 or 2.
Everything is crossed, and off to the TV I go.

Bring us luck Webb.
 
Kingster

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#276
#276
Capt. Factorial said:
You seem to have missed the points (though I was being quite sarcastic when I made it, so I can understand that). There really are two points.

1) There is no such thing as an accepted definition for "defying the odds". It's vernacular, not statistics. You appear to have adopted a fairly loose criterion, that is, that if something is less than 50% likely, that its occurrence qualifies as "defying the odds". I don't find 25% so particularly unlikely, but it's totally subjective.

2) In the scenario here (a lottery) exactly one outcome, no matter how unlikely, must occur. Look at it this way: flip a fair coin 100 times, and write down the results. Then ask yourself how likely that outcome was. Since we've assumed that the coin is fair, I don't even need to know what the outcome is to tell you what the likelihood of that particular outcome is: 1 in 2 raised to the 100 power, or in ratio terms (where 0 means impossible and 1 means must happen) 0.00000000000000000000000000000079. I hope I got the right number of zeros there, but you get the point -- that sequence of heads/tails was INCREDIBLY unlikely. But we shouldn't be shocked about it at all -- I mean SOME outcome had to occur. So that fact that out of a very long list of very unlikely outcomes (from an individual point of view) this particular sequence "defied the odds" shouldn't really mean much to us.

Anyway, by your definition, if we have to defy the odds to get the #1 overall, so does every other team in the lottery, and even more so. This would suggest that any outcome of the lottery defies the odds. But barring catastrophe, tomorrow they'll be pulling four balls out of that hopper and damn the odds, they will be defied somehow.
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Well, I didn't define, "the odds", but semantics aside, the substance of my statement holds - 75% chance of not getting the first pick, which I will define as, "not good for us."
 
Capt. Factorial

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#277
#277
Kingster said:
Well, I didn't define, "the odds", but semantics aside, the substance of my statement holds - 75% chance of not getting the first pick, which I will define as, "not good for us."
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Feel free. I will define our chances as "as good as possible and better than anyone else's".
 
KevinSalvadori

KevinSalvadori

Bench
#289
#289
...honestly, it's like being punched in the gut over and over again. How is this balanced and "true" statistically, and not a con job by the league to put Griffin in the biggest media market?
 
Bricklayer

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
#292
#292
KevinSalvadori said:
...honestly, it's like being punched in the gut over and over again. How is this balanced and "true" statistically, and not a con job by the league to put Griffin in the biggest media market?
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You do realize three of the bottom five teams are picking 1-3, right? It was no huge statistical bump for this to happen. 35% chance in our case. Trust me, if you're playing Russian Roulette and there is a 35% that the bullet is coming up, don't pull that trigger.
 
ElRey

ElRey

Starter
#294
#294
KevinSalvadori said:
...honestly, it's like being punched in the gut over and over again. How is this balanced and "true" statistically, and not a con job by the league to put Griffin in the biggest media market?
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I want them to do the lottery live! Why all this secrecy! I don't give a crap there's a Ernst and Young partner, and team representatives. I want it to be open for everyone to observe. This is BS.
 
tradepeja

tradepeja

Starter
#295
#295
I really, really want to believe this was rigged. I mean....they do pick them in a back room and all. :D

What's somehow more likely is that a #4 voodoo really did happen between Chris and the pick.
 
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Showtime

Showtime

Starter
#297
#297
est.1999 said:
this crap is rigged I don't care what anyone says F the NBA I'm done
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Don't be stupid. Stern sending a first round pick to the Clippers would be flushing it down the toilet. If he rigged it, it would have gone to OKC to send the hometown boy to the team he helped get out of Seattle for his friend.
 
Bricklayer

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
#298
#298
The bad part about this is the way the order worked out --

Clippers = Griffin because they have no idea what to do and why not

Memphis = Rubio, because what they need is a PF and Hill would be a reach, so they probably just say what the hey and try to upgrade the Conley situation

OKC = Thabeet, because they've got their PG and were looking to add Chandler as a final piece just a few months ago.


Could not have worked out any worse there -- if the order is jumbled, if Memphis picks #1 they take Griffin because they want him, leaving OKC to maybe pass on Rubio because they already have a PG. If Memphis is picking #3 maybe they pass on Thabeet since they already have Gasol. But as is...
 
tradepeja

tradepeja

Starter
#299
#299
Bricklayer said:
Yeah, it was rigged...for Memphis?
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Maybe, if one WAS to rig a draft in order to make a certain team fall lower than they should be, wouldn't one also make a distractor team, who is similar to the team you are rigging the draft against, move up inexplicably? Just playing devil's run-on sentence advocate here.
 
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