Looking ahead to the 2022 Draft

We need defense from whoever we pair up with Sabonis so I am out on both Banchero and Chet.

From my standpoint if we hit we draft Smith, if Monte wants to take a chance on Ivey fine, or we trade down 2 picks the way Atlanta did with Dallas and hopefully get a similar haul.
 
pdxKingsFan said:
We need defense from whoever we pair up with Sabonis so I am out on both Banchero and Chet.

From my standpoint if we hit we draft Smith, if Monte wants to take a chance on Ivey fine, or we trade down 2 picks the way Atlanta did with Dallas and hopefully get a similar haul.
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Why would arguably one of the best defensive prospects in this years draft class (Chet) be eliminated by your defensive qualifier?
 
hrdboild said:
Paulo Banchero just looks like Ben Simmons without the high-level defense to me. That's an interesting player, but not someone I would ever try and build a team around.
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In our case, Fox would be the player we would be building around. Banchero would just be a complimentary piece.
 
pdxKingsFan said:
I thought I was pretty clear the only top prospect I am 100% sold on for the Kings is Smith.
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So the defensive qualifier would not apply to Ivey? He’s lost his man a few times in the 1h and plays defense like he has 4 fouls already (he’s has none).
 
kb02 said:
So the defensive qualifier would not apply to Ivey? He’s lost his man a few times in the 1h and plays defense like he has 4 fouls already (he’s has none).
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I don't think there is any chance that the Kings draft Ivey. He's not my guy and I'm even more sure he's not a Monte guy.

I expect him to put up nice numbers on whatever team drafts him and possibly contend for ROtY
 
ESP47 said:
You're leaving out the fact that Banchero has shown the ability to shoot the ball while Ben can't shoot at all.
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Yeah I don't see the comp here, other than some good handle/playmaking from a big dude. But Simmons is a top 5 defender in basketball, and one of the best playmakers in the game who doesn't want to shoot/score at all. I think finishing/scoring is going to be Banchero's bread and butter and he's at least given us some semblance of an outside jumper.
 
True, but Banchero is primarily a midrange shooter and shows shaky confidence in his three point shot. If you remove his 7 for 14 hot streak in the last three games his three point shooting percentage goes down to 31%. It's easy to forget now considering the last time we saw Ben Simmons in the NBA he refused to shoot from anywhere on the floor, but back in HS and LSU and even early on in his career with the Sixers he did score a lot of his points with midrange jumpers. He was expected to be at least a 15-18 ppg scorer, good enough to be a primary initiator and second or third option in an offense.

I don't like direct player comparisons because they're almost always reductive and misleading. It's very unlikely that Banchero develops into the player that Ben Simmons is now -- but if you look at who Ben Simmons was as a prospect and who Banchero projects to be in the NBA, I see two point forwards who create primarily in the midrange or attacking the basket whose biggest selling points are above-average mobility, athleticism, and ballhandling skills for their size and proficiency in creating good looks for their teammates. Given the trends in outside shooting we've seen over the last 5-6 years, if you advance 18 year old Ben Simmons from the class of 2016 to the class of 2022 I think he probably takes 100 three point jumpers in college instead of three.

While Simmons had defense to hang his hat on, Banchero will need to excel as a scorer with his less impressive defensive tools and that can work in the NBA in the right circumstances but you either need him to become an above average outside shooter or you need to surround him with a big man and guards who are.
 
QWERTYLICIOUS said:
In our case, Fox would be the player we would be building around. Banchero would just be a complimentary piece.
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Which is why I'm concerned. Not only is he going to get in the way of Fox's best spot on the floor (the pull up elbow jumper) he's also going to get in the way of Sabonis' favored high post shot creation. If we draft Banchero with the intention of developing him into a centerpiece it seems to push us strongly in the direction of moving on from both Fox and Sabonis. If he's the BPA so be it, but I don't see that as a likely outcome in this draft considering that I have Murray, Mathurin, and Eason all ranked higher than Banchero on my prospect list. Obviously our front office might disagree.
 
hrdboild said:
Which is why I'm concerned. Not only is he going to get in the way of Fox's best spot on the floor (the pull up elbow jumper) he's also going to get in the way of Sabonis' favored high post shot creation. If we draft Banchero with the intention of developing him into a centerpiece it seems to push us strongly in the direction of moving on from both Fox and Sabonis. If he's the BPA so be it, but I don't see that as a likely outcome in this draft considering that I have Murray, Mathurin, and Eason all ranked higher than Banchero on my prospect list. Obviously our front office might disagree.
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My initial worry with Banchero before watching some film was that he was going moreso just a low-post stopper without much of a jumper. But he honestly will walk into the NBA as one of the more talented big man passers/ball-handlers in the NBA. Just very few dudes at 6'10+ 240 with his on-ball skill-set. So even if his shot is a little sketchy to start, he's giving you some secondary creation, which the Kings still desperately need.

I definitely see some fit concerns, which is partly why I'd keep him at 3 behind Chet/Jabari (who I just rate as better prospects anyway), but I think talent wise, he's a clear choice if those 2 guys are off the board. I think the floor on Paolo being a very good starter/scorer in the NBA is really good; I'd bet a lot that he can have a Tobias Harris type career arc as a floor. For him to be a star/feature player, he's got to get find a consistent jumper and get to at least average defensively.
 
The_Jamal said:
My initial worry with Banchero before watching some film was that he was going moreso just a low-post stopper without much of a jumper. But he honestly will walk into the NBA as one of the more talented big man passers/ball-handlers in the NBA. Just very few dudes at 6'10+ 240 with his on-ball skill-set. So even if his shot is a little sketchy to start, he's giving you some secondary creation, which the Kings still desperately need.

I definitely see some fit concerns, which is partly why I'd keep him at 3 behind Chet/Jabari (who I just rate as better prospects anyway), but I think talent wise, he's a clear choice if those 2 guys are off the board. I think the floor on Paolo being a very good starter/scorer in the NBA is really good; I'd bet a lot that he can have a Tobias Harris type career arc as a floor. For him to be a star/feature player, he's got to get find a consistent jumper and get to at least average defensively.
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Sure but of the players he's often compared to -- Tobias Harries, Julius Randle, Lamar Odom, mid-career Blake Griffin -- how many of these guys are leading playoff teams in this current century? To be a high-efficiency scorer in the NBA you need to either excel at drawing and converting free throws or you need to excel at volume three-point shooting. Everyone else is using up too many possessions to get their stats. Banchero may project as a better pure scorer than someone like Mathurin or Eason but those guys have off-ball skills which add to their value. Keegan Murray is not as athletic as Banchero but he's just as gifted as a scorer and he's been more reliable as a spot-up shooter, rebounder, and all around defender. It's not just that I don't like Paolo's fit on a Kings roster built around Fox and Sabonis, I don't like his fit in the modern NBA period.
 
The_Jamal said:
I'm here as well. Chet is just mightily impressive and the Kings might be one of the better suited teams in the league to cover his weakness with Sabonis handling the beefy Centers so he doesn't have to get thrust right away into playing the 5 full time. The big thing is I just don't have any skill questions with him; he checks every box you look for from a potential franchise player; any doubt or question is tied to him not being able to gain weight.

And he's honestly answered the weight thing as well as he could this season. He arguably was the best player in college basketball this year. The NBA is of course a whole different level of physical, but from the film we have; you can't really ask for much better results.

I love Jabari and he's been my #1 for most of the year, but I think Chet's upside is more franchise altering than Jabari's at this point.
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Holmgren would fit perfectly offensively too. He already knows some of the Kings offense and his ability to feed the low post from up top would be perfect for Sabonis. You could build an entire system off that one play.
 
hrdboild said:
Sure but of the players he's often compared to -- Tobias Harries, Julius Randle, Lamar Odom, mid-career Blake Griffin -- how many of these guys are leading playoff teams in this current century? To be a high-efficiency scorer in the NBA you need to either excel at drawing and converting free throws or you need to excel at volume three-point shooting. Everyone else is using up too many possessions to get their stats. Banchero may project as a better pure scorer than someone like Mathurin or Eason but those guys have off-ball skills which add to their value. Keegan Murray is not as athletic as Banchero but he's just as gifted as a scorer and he's been more reliable as a spot-up shooter, rebounder, and all around defender. It's not just that I don't like Paolo's fit on a Kings roster built around Fox and Sabonis, I don't like his fit in the modern NBA period.
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Any one of those guys would be one of the better draft picks in Kings history. I'd take any one of them if that was a guarantee with this years draft pick. Obviously it would be great to draft a future HOF player but the Kings could make the playoffs if they added any one of those skill sets to the current roster.
 
ESP47 said:
Any one of those guys would be one of the better draft picks in Kings history. I'd take any one of them if that was a guarantee with this years draft pick. Obviously it would be great to draft a future HOF player but the Kings could make the playoffs if they added any one of those skill sets to the current roster.
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It's so sad how scarred we are from draft busts, that we'd be ecstatic with a top 50-60 NBA player as a result from a top 5 pick.
 
hrdboild said:
Sure but of the players he's often compared to -- Tobias Harries, Julius Randle, Lamar Odom, mid-career Blake Griffin -- how many of these guys are leading playoff teams in this current century? To be a high-efficiency scorer in the NBA you need to either excel at drawing and converting free throws or you need to excel at volume three-point shooting. Everyone else is using up too many possessions to get their stats. Banchero may project as a better pure scorer than someone like Mathurin or Eason but those guys have off-ball skills which add to their value. Keegan Murray is not as athletic as Banchero but he's just as gifted as a scorer and he's been more reliable as a spot-up shooter, rebounder, and all around defender. It's not just that I don't like Paolo's fit on a Kings roster built around Fox and Sabonis, I don't like his fit in the modern NBA period.
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I don’t think Harris is a good comp for either Banchero or Murray, but, in terms of impact, it’s pretty simple: Murray has a Harris ceiling while Banchero has a Harris floor. Banchero is levels above Murray.
 
Based on what we know about Monte’s player type, what do we think his big board for the Kings looks like?

I’d think he would target Smith, Chet and Murray
 
kb02 said:
I don’t think Harris is a good comp for either Banchero or Murray, but, in terms of impact, it’s pretty simple: Murray has a Harris ceiling while Banchero has a Harris floor. Banchero is levels above Murray.
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It's hard to say what Banchero's floor is. RJ Barrett had very similar stats at Duke with higher assist numbers and has been an inefficient volume scorer in the NBA. Tobias Harris is a pretty high floor for a guy who isn't a surefire, as clear as it gets #1 pick.
 
iowamcnabb said:
Based on what we know about Monte’s player type, what do we think his big board for the Kings looks like?

I’d think he would target Smith, Chet and Murray
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I don't really know what his player type is. His main additions have been Haliburton, Mitchell, Sabonis and DDV. All fairly different players except DDV and Mitchell being the same archetype.

I think he's going to pick BPA with the only exception maybe being skipping over Ivey. We'll obviously know more once the lottery is over with.

Maybe he'll post a picture with his white board in the background and we'll know for sure?
 
ESP47 said:
I don't really know what his player type is. His main additions have been Haliburton, Mitchell, Sabonis and DDV. All fairly different players except DDV and Mitchell being the same archetype.

I think he's going to pick BPA with the only exception maybe being skipping over Ivey. We'll obviously know more once the lottery is over with.

Maybe he'll post a picture with his white board in the background and we'll know for sure?
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his white board would just say “Optionality” with a big circle around it.
 
Remember that Monte is primarily an advanced stats guy and doesn't seem to care about finding ideal fit players in the draft. Based on who he's drafted in the past I have to agree with @iowamcnabb here, I think he has Keegan Murray, Chet Holmgren, and Jabari Smith ranked very highly with Tari Eason, Bennedict Mathurin, and Mark Williams in the second tier. Christian Koloko and Oscar Tshiebwe are dark horses though both are projected as late first round picks. Guys I think he would shy away from are Paolo Banchero, AJ Griffin, Jaden Ivey and Johnny Davis but a lot depends on where we're drafting. At 8-10 he might not be able to take his ideal player.
 
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