Looking ahead to the 2022 Draft

[jiimbob]

Th

You never know. Tyrese was slotted to go 4th or 5th in his draft and fell to 12th. Davion had some slotted slippage but was also getting mocked to the Warriors or Magic in a ton of mocks.

All it takes is one or two teams getting irrationally high on Jalen Duren or something and Murray could slide down a slot or two.

That would be nice. I haven’t considered team needs, if that’s important to anyone, and players like Duren or Davis may viewed higher by others.
A few of the names now mentioned, Eason, Sochan, Liddell.. all sound like they could be picked up late lottery, so interesting.

 

[Kingster]

Not meant as a comp, but it could be. I heard these exact same comments made about another player that I wanted the Kings to draft. Mikal Bridges! He wasn't really 6'8". He didn't have a good enough frame. He wouldn't stand up to the physicality of the NBA etc. etc. etc. Well he's now the iron man of the NBA having never missed a game in his career, and he's one of the best defensive players in the NBA, and yes he can put the ball on the floor and go to the basket, and yes, he really is a good shooter. Sometimes Kingster we can overthink these things. Mathurin has all the tools to be a very good player. Can I guarantee he will become that player? No! No one can, but I know what my eye's tell me. Remember, every college player is a victim of the system he plays in and many times, that system restricts what he can do.

That's exactly why I watch so many games. In he hope that the player will have one of those moments and just explode. I've had those with Mathurin. Not often, but non the less I saw them just like I did many years ago while watching Kevin Johnson play at Cal, under head coach Lou Campanelli. Campanelli was a walk the ball up the floor, half court coach, and that's how Johnson played. But every once in a while, Johnson would just explode and it took you by surprise, but you realized there was more there than you thought. He was my pick for the Kings that year, but we took Kenny Smith instead.

Some players are harder to get a read on. Such as Jeremy Sochan from Baylor. I started watching Baylor to see Kendall Brown, but it wasn't long before that I realized that Sochan was a much better player. I think the coach realized that as well as Sochan's minutes went up, and his name got called on offense more and more often. They started running the ball through him. Everytime they needed a stop, it was Sochan that got the steal, or the rebound, or the blocked shot. He needs to work on his outside shot, but I have no doubt that he's going to be a very good NBA player. He's not fancy with a lot of dazzle that gets your attention. He simply does all the little things that don't show up in a box score that help you win. I love the kid! He's a very good defender by the way...

You're right, Bridges is not a comp because I never thought Bridges was 2" shorter than his reported height. He looked like a long-armed 6'8" dude in college, just as he looks in the NBA. Another reason for Bridges not being comparable - he actually had something to hang his hat on - defense. When you looked at him in college he had 3 & D written all over him. Mathurin doesn't really have anything particular to hang his hat on. Is he special at anything? Shooting? No. Defense? No. Rebounding? No. Passing? No. Ball handling? No. He's not bad at any of those things, but he's not special in any one of them either. I'm hopeful Mathurin gets taken before the Kings pick.

 

[jiimbob]

You're right, Bridges is not a comp because I never thought Bridges was 2" shorter than his reported height. He looked like a long-armed 6'8" dude in college, just as he looks in the NBA. Another reason for Bridges not being comparable - he actually had something to hang his hat on - defense. When you looked at him in college he had 3 & D written all over him. Mathurin doesn't really have anything particular to hang his hat on. Is he special at anything? Shooting? No. Defense? No. Rebounding? No. Passing? No. Ball handling? No. He's not bad at any of those things, but he's not special in any one of them either. I'm hopeful Mathurin gets taken before the Kings pick.

yeah, most mocks have both Mathurin and Griffin in our likely range. Both should slot in well as SF’s and Griffin does have the shooting strength that Monte says he’s looking for. I’m kind of keen he’s the pick but also concerned about his injury history and to a lesser extent our poor history with Duke players.
It’s going to be another nail biter draft if we dont move up.

 

[SacTownKid]

yeah, most mocks have both Mathurin and Griffin in our likely range. Both should slot in well as SF’s and Griffin does have the shooting strength that Monte says he’s looking for. I’m kind of keen he’s the pick but also concerned about his injury history and to a lesser extent our poor history with Duke players.
It’s going to be another nail biter draft if we dont move up.

Griffin would be a great pickup for the needs and ability to play from day 1. To me, the best right in that range right now are Davis and Griffin. I think Davis can be special and with his physical play he'd fit right in.

 

[jiimbob]

Griffin would be a great pickup for the needs and ability to play from day 1. To me, the best right in that range right now are Davis and Griffin. I think Davis can be special and with his physical play he'd fit right in.

Guess I should be more open about Davis. I see him as a SG without the size to play SF. However as someone here pointed out a couple of this drafts shooting guards are better than any we currently have, and he is a good rebounder for his size.
If the idea is to improve shooting, after trading two of our best, and get Fox and Sabonis a third solid option, then maybe it’s the way to go.

 

[SacTownKid]

Guess I should be more open about Davis. I see him as a SG without the size to play SF. However as someone here pointed out a couple of this drafts shooting guards are better than any we currently have, and he is a good rebounder for his size.
If the idea is to improve shooting, after trading two of our best, and get Fox and Sabonis a third solid option, then maybe it’s the way to go.

The more I think, the more I think Davis can play SF without an issue. Dude is so physical. I'm seeing more and more Jimmy Butler in him.

 

[Kingster]

yeah, most mocks have both Mathurin and Griffin in our likely range. Both should slot in well as SF’s and Griffin does have the shooting strength that Monte says he’s looking for. I’m kind of keen he’s the pick but also concerned about his injury history and to a lesser extent our poor history with Duke players.
It’s going to be another nail biter draft if we dont move up.

Yep. At least Griffin has the shooting touch, but he does have other issues. Maybe if the Kings don't get lucky with the ping pong balls McNair trades down or trades the pick for a young vet.

 

[Kingster]

This is a draft where I want McNair to not only pick a good player in the 1st round, something he's done in the past, but also hit some gold in the second round. I look at these playoff teams and I see some 2nd round picks that are very good players and instrumental to their success. The Kings have the 37th and 48th picks in the second round. It's time to show your scouting chops in the 2nd round this year, McNair!

 

[Telemachus]

This is a draft where I want McNair to not only pick a good player in the 1st round, something he's done in the past, but also hit some gold in the second round. I look at these playoff teams and I see some 2nd round picks that are very good players and instrumental to their success. The Kings have the 37th and 48th picks in the second round. It's time to show your scouting chops in the 2nd round this year, McNair!

Second round picks generally take time before making an impact. You can count on one hand (with fingers left over) all the second round picks of the past two seasons who are my making a significant impact for their team.

 

[The_Jamal]

Second round picks generally take time before making an impact. You can count on one hand (with fingers left over) all the second round picks of the past two seasons who are my making a significant impact for their team.

Yeah, it's all about giving yourself some dart throws. If Herb can figure out the offense a bit, the Pelicans will have snagged a high level 12+year starter in the 2nd round. Pretty good. He's already an elite defender. Dosonmu looks solid for the Bulls, but he faded a bit down the stretch. Those are the 2 guys who have popped this year in the 2nd.


2021-Herb Jones, Ayo Dosunmu 2-total

2020- Tre Jones, Xavier Tillman, KJ Martin Jr 2-total

2019-Nic Claxton, Cody Martin, Daniel Gafford, Terrance Mann, Isaiah Roby, Horton-Tucker, Jalen McDaniels, Jaylen Nowell. (It's so typical Vlade; he had 3 2nd round picks in one of the deepest 2nd round hit rates and he missed on all of them lol. ) 8-total

2018-Brunson, Graham, Mitch Rob, Gary Trent (we traded out of), Vanderbilt, Melton, Metu, Shake Milton 8-total

2017-Thomas Bryant, Isaiah Hartenstein (my boy), Dillon Brooks, Monte Morris 4-total

2016-Zubac, Brogdon, Georges Niang 3-total

2015-Cedi Osman, Montrezl Harrell, Wily Hernangomez, Richaun Holmes, Josh Richardson, Pat Connaughton 6-total

2014-Joe Harris, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jerami Grant, Nikola Jokic, Dwight Powell, Jordan Clarkson 6-total

2013-Allen Crabbe, Mike Muscala, Raul Neto, James Ennis 4-total

2012-Tomas Satoransky, Jae Crowder, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Will Barton, Kyle O'Quinn, Quincy Acy 7-total

Obviously need to give the last few drafts some more time to develop, but if we average the last 10 years of guys I'd consider NBA talent (of varying levels), it's comes out to about 5 NBA players every draft. And if we sort the actual difference makers (franchise changing talent):

Nikola Jokic, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon (8% of the 50 *NBA* talents in the 2nd round the last 10 years).

In other words, it's tough, but not impossible to find rotation players in the 2nd round. It's extraordinarily rare to find a franchise changer. So, dart throw, dart throw, dart throw.

 

[kb02]

Yeah, it's all about giving yourself some dart throws. If Herb can figure out the offense a bit, the Pelicans will have snagged a high level 12+year starter in the 2nd round. Pretty good. He's already an elite defender. Dosonmu looks solid for the Bulls, but he faded a bit down the stretch. Those are the 2 guys who have popped this year in the 2nd.


2021-Herb Jones, Ayo Dosunmu 2-total

2020- Tre Jones, Xavier Tillman, KJ Martin Jr 2-total

2019-Nic Claxton, Cody Martin, Daniel Gafford, Terrance Mann, Isaiah Roby, Horton-Tucker, Jalen McDaniels, Jaylen Nowell. (It's so typical Vlade; he had 3 2nd round picks in one of the deepest 2nd round hit rates and he missed on all of them lol. ) 8-total

2018-Brunson, Graham, Mitch Rob, Gary Trent (we traded out of), Vanderbilt, Melton, Metu, Shake Milton 8-total

2017-Thomas Bryant, Isaiah Hartenstein (my boy), Dillon Brooks, Monte Morris 4-total

2016-Zubac, Brogdon, Georges Niang 3-total

2015-Cedi Osman, Montrezl Harrell, Wily Hernangomez, Richaun Holmes, Josh Richardson, Pat Connaughton 6-total

2014-Joe Harris, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jerami Grant, Nikola Jokic, Dwight Powell, Jordan Clarkson 6-total

2013-Allen Crabbe, Mike Muscala, Raul Neto, James Ennis 4-total

2012-Tomas Satoransky, Jae Crowder, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Will Barton, Kyle O'Quinn, Quincy Acy 7-total

Obviously need to give the last few drafts some more time to develop, but if we average the last 10 years of guys I'd consider NBA talent (of varying levels), it's comes out to about 5 NBA players every draft. And if we sort the actual difference makers (franchise changing talent):

Nikola Jokic, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon (8% of the 50 *NBA* talents in the 2nd round the last 10 years).

In other words, it's tough, but not impossible to find rotation players in the 2nd round. It's extraordinarily rare to find a franchise changer. So, dart throw, dart throw, dart throw.

Not a dart throw for me at all: 2021-Herb Jones, Ayo Dosunmu 2-total

 

[The_Jamal]

Not a dart throw for me at all: 2021-Herb Jones, Ayo Dosunmu 2-total

You had a good evaluation. Great job! Many on this forum had the Herb eval right. I was very high on Herb too and distinctly remember saying if he were 19 with the same skill-set, he'd be a top 15 pick. But the shot/age kept him in the 2nd round.

 

[kb02]

You had a good evaluation. Great job! Many on this forum had the Herb eval right. I was very high on Herb too and distinctly remember saying if he were 19 with the same skill-set, he'd be a top 15 pick. But the shot/age kept him in the 2nd round.

Not just Herb.

"Jun 21, 2021
#1


With Fox gone, Hali takes over the starting PG spot. Simmons slides in as the 4/3 for the Kings. The Kings take BPA at #9 (Jalen Johnson? Scottie Barnes? Davion Mitchell?) and grab Ayo Donsumu, Tre Mann, Herb Jones, or Jared Butler at #28 and #39. Kings make the playoffs next year."

https://community.kingsfans.com/threads/trade-suggestion-fox-for-simmons-28.79959/

 

[Telemachus]

Yeah, it's all about giving yourself some dart throws. If Herb can figure out the offense a bit, the Pelicans will have snagged a high level 12+year starter in the 2nd round. Pretty good. He's already an elite defender. Dosonmu looks solid for the Bulls, but he faded a bit down the stretch. Those are the 2 guys who have popped this year in the 2nd.


2021-Herb Jones, Ayo Dosunmu 2-total

2020- Tre Jones, Xavier Tillman, KJ Martin Jr 2-total

2019-Nic Claxton, Cody Martin, Daniel Gafford, Terrance Mann, Isaiah Roby, Horton-Tucker, Jalen McDaniels, Jaylen Nowell. (It's so typical Vlade; he had 3 2nd round picks in one of the deepest 2nd round hit rates and he missed on all of them lol. ) 8-total

2018-Brunson, Graham, Mitch Rob, Gary Trent (we traded out of), Vanderbilt, Melton, Metu, Shake Milton 8-total

2017-Thomas Bryant, Isaiah Hartenstein (my boy), Dillon Brooks, Monte Morris 4-total

2016-Zubac, Brogdon, Georges Niang 3-total

2015-Cedi Osman, Montrezl Harrell, Wily Hernangomez, Richaun Holmes, Josh Richardson, Pat Connaughton 6-total

2014-Joe Harris, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jerami Grant, Nikola Jokic, Dwight Powell, Jordan Clarkson 6-total

2013-Allen Crabbe, Mike Muscala, Raul Neto, James Ennis 4-total

2012-Tomas Satoransky, Jae Crowder, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Will Barton, Kyle O'Quinn, Quincy Acy 7-total

Obviously need to give the last few drafts some more time to develop, but if we average the last 10 years of guys I'd consider NBA talent (of varying levels), it's comes out to about 5 NBA players every draft. And if we sort the actual difference makers (franchise changing talent):

Nikola Jokic, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon (8% of the 50 *NBA* talents in the 2nd round the last 10 years).

In other words, it's tough, but not impossible to find rotation players in the 2nd round. It's extraordinarily rare to find a franchise changer. So, dart throw, dart throw, dart throw.

You basically made my point for me. Most of the players you listed didn't make much of an impact right away, and many didn't do so until their second or third team. There is talent to be found, but I'm not judging my GM for possibly missing it.

 

[The_Jamal]

You basically made my point for me. Most of the players you listed didn't make much of an impact right away, and many didn't do so until their second or third team. There is talent to be found, but I'm not judging my GM for possibly missing it.

Right. The point was to back up your point and negate someone else's "point" in the thread. I think you're right.

All I want to see is a GM prioritize the 2nd round/cheap development. It's mostly a crapshoot whether you actually hit on somebody, especially someone actually impactful that's a 5+ year player for your team. I think Monte has mostly done a good job with this; 3 2nd round picks, Lou King, Metu, Jones, DDV buy-low, Trey Lyles as a "throw-in". He's clearly trying to find the diamond in the rough younger talent.

 

[SacTownKid]

Right. The point was to back up your point and negate someone else's "point" in the thread. I think you're right.

All I want to see is a GM prioritize the 2nd round/cheap development. It's mostly a crapshoot whether you actually hit on somebody, especially someone actually impactful that's a 5+ year player for your team. I think Monte has mostly done a good job with this; 3 2nd round picks, Lou King, Metu, Jones, DDV buy-low, Trey Lyles as a "throw-in". He's clearly trying to find the diamond in the rough younger talent.

I don't know where he falls but in the 2nd I would think Trevion Williams would be one of those "no duh" picks. I've seen him at or around the Kings high 2nd round pick. Do that and you might actually end up stealing a perfect big to go with Sabonis.

 

[kb02]

You basically made my point for me. Most of the players you listed didn't make much of an impact right away, and many didn't do so until their second or third team. There is talent to be found, but I'm not judging my GM for possibly missing it.

I am. One of my clear criteria for the next GM was a Farhan type, who thrives in finding creative ways to acquire talent. He’s been so good at it that MLB just changed its waiver rules, because he was abusing it so much.

For the Kings, as a small market team with a horrible rep and an equally horrible track record, having a GM that can not only identify talent in non-premium areas, but also generate shots on goals in non-premium areas is an absolute necessity. The draft is the great equalizer for small market teams. Not just the lotto portion. All of it. So failing to identify diamonds in the second and giving away seconds is an absolute stain on his record.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Honestly our biggest problem with 2nd rounders is we have too many. In order to keep them past the 2 year point, they have to get playing time on the roster, if you have 2-3 every year, which was one of Vlade's dopey strategies, you keep dumping them to make room for the next set.

So you can either be a really bad team doing a process and actually play 2nd rounders and G-leaguers as starters while you tank or you can be the Spurs or consistently good enough to have 2-3 of these guys on the semi-active roster who get in when you are doing load management or what not. Or the Kings who are just mediocre enough that they are always reaching for a rotation player actually worthy of floor time so they have to cut last year's second rounders to find a guy worthy of 8 minutes a night. uggh.

My bottom line: If the second round looks weak this year let's just trade the picks.

 

[kb02]

Right. The point was to back up your point and negate someone else's "point" in the thread. I think you're right.

All I want to see is a GM prioritize the 2nd round/cheap development. It's mostly a crapshoot whether you actually hit on somebody, especially someone actually impactful that's a 5+ year player for your team. I think Monte has mostly done a good job with this; 3 2nd round picks, Lou King, Metu, Jones, DDV buy-low, Trey Lyles as a "throw-in". He's clearly trying to find the diamond in the rough younger talent.

Dude gets props on this board for drafting Hali and Davion in the lottery. Whether those picks were no brainer picks or not, if he’s such a great talent evaluator, his skills should translate into the second round. Especially so when 2 of those seconds were relatively early.

 

[kb02]

Honestly our biggest problem with 2nd rounders is we have too many. In order to keep them past the 2 year point, they have to get playing time on the roster, if you have 2-3 every year, which was one of Vlade's dopey strategies, you keep dumping them to make room for the next set.

So you can either be a really bad team doing a process and actually play 2nd rounders and G-leaguers as starters while you tank or you can be the Spurs or consistently good enough to have 2-3 of these guys on the semi-active roster who get in when you are doing load management or what not. Or the Kings who are just mediocre enough that they are always reaching for a rotation player actually worthy of floor time so they have to cut last year's second rounders to find a guy worthy of 8 minutes a night. uggh.

My bottom line: If the second round looks weak this year let's just trade the picks.

Or do what Farhan does, essentially keep two roster spots open. Churn through players by using fake injuries, cuts, etc until you find a diamond.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Or do what Farhan does, essentially keep two roster spots open. Churn through players by using fake injuries, cuts, etc until you find a diamond.

I don't understand how you can do that with NBA roster rules. You're required to have so many guys on NBA deals and only allowed two 2-ways. It's kind of stupid, they should probably have some kind of deal where a team can have more 2-way players but only protect 2 or something like that.

or I guess a simple solution would be allow a team to have two-way rights on all of their 2nd round picks for 4 years.

 

[kb02]

I don't understand how you can do that with NBA roster rules. You're required to have so many guys on NBA deals and only allowed two 2-ways. It's kind of stupid, they should probably have some kind of deal where a team can have more 2-way players but only protect 2 or something like that.

or I guess a simple solution would be allow a team to have two-way rights on all of their 2nd round picks for 4 years.

I don’t know the parameters for when they could cut a two way or an “ender” and then bring on another player for a test run. But would hope the GM would’ve explored that possibility and different ways to exploit it. And if not at the NBA level, churn at the G-League level.

I think there is a salary floor, but not a true salary ceiling. Just a tax. Would hope the Kings aren’t so afraid of keeping a Woodard, Ramsey, or King for years when it was obvious they just weren’t going to make it. Cut them early. Go give some potential diamonds a test run.

 

[Telemachus]

Dude gets props on this board for drafting Hali and Davion in the lottery. Whether those picks were no brainer picks or not, if he’s such a great talent evaluator, his skills should translate into the second round. Especially so when 2 of those seconds were relatively early.

Please name all these second round picks that have been so successful that were taken after the Kings picked the past couple seasons.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517144457774174208

Shaedon officially in the draft now

 

[sactowndog]

Dude gets props on this board for drafting Hali and Davion in the lottery. Whether those picks were no brainer picks or not, if he’s such a great talent evaluator, his skills should translate into the second round. Especially so when 2 of those seconds were relatively early.

Well especially when taking the best guy 6’4” under with a top 10 pick when every one else is reaching for that 6-6 to 6’8” swing forward isn’t exactly something to write home about. All you have done is create an unbalanced undersized roster that can’t compete.

Also if Davion is so great why have no one’s all rookie team ballots I have seen have him on 1st or 2nd team?

 

[kb02]

Well especially when taking the best guy 6’4” under with a top 10 pick when every one else is reaching for that 6-6 to 6’8” swing forward isn’t exactly something to write home about. All you have done is create an unbalanced undersized roster that can’t compete.

Also if Davion is so great why have no one’s all rookie team ballots I have seen have him on 1st or 2nd team?

I was high on Davion, so I'm not as pissed about the pick. My gripe is the roster construction--like yours. Perfect world, he would've moved Fox, acquired Simmons when Fox had higher value, drafted Davion as BPA, Herb Jones, and Ayo. That would've been exactly/close to what I would've done: https://community.kingsfans.com/threads/trade-suggestion-fox-for-simmons-28.79959/

PG: Hali, Davion
SG: Buddy, Ayo, TD
SF: Barnes/Jones, Moe, Ender
PF: Simmons, Barnes/Jones, Bagley, Ender
C: Holmes, Len, Ender

Or

PG: Hali, Davion
SG: Buddy, Ayo, TD
SF: Barnes, Moe
PF: Jones, Bagley
C: Simmons, Len...

That team would be in the playoffs right now.

Edit: At #9, I probably would've had a tough call between Sengun, Bouknight, and Mitchell. Mitchell becoming more prominent with the need at PG after Fox's trade. Sengun, I loved. Bouknight, nothing needs to be said.

 

[ESP47]

I was high on Davion, so I'm not as pissed about the pick. My gripe is the roster construction--like yours. Perfect world, he would've moved Fox, acquired Simmons when Fox had higher value, drafted Davion as BPA, Herb Jones, and Ayo. That would've been exactly what I would've done: https://community.kingsfans.com/threads/trade-suggestion-fox-for-simmons-28.79959/

PG: Hali, Davion
SG: Buddy, Ayo, TD
SF: Barnes/Jones, Moe, Ender
PF: Simmons, Barnes/Jones, Bagley, Ender
C: Holmes, Len, Ender

Or

PG: Hali, Davion
SG: Buddy, Ayo, TD
SF: Barnes, Moe
PF: Jones, Bagley
C: Simmons, Len...

That team would be in the playoffs right now.

That doesn't look like a playoff team to me. I think that roster would be in the same situation as the current roster.

This franchise needs additions. Moving chairs around the deck of the Titanic might make some small improvements here and there but I don't think it would be nearly enough to catapult them into the playoffs from where they currently stand.

Hitting on this draft pick is extremely important.

 

[kb02]

That doesn't look like a playoff team to me. I think that roster would be in the same situation as the current roster.

This franchise needs additions. Moving chairs around the deck of the Titanic might make some small improvements here and there but I don't think it would be nearly enough to catapult them into the playoffs from where they currently stand.

Hitting on this draft pick is extremely important.

Perhaps. But it checks off the bare minimum: two connectors on defense and offense on the court at all times requirement. I just don't think you can have a sustainable winner without it.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517172764444180482

 

[kb02]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517172764444180482

Over dribbles a bit too much. Knows how to play. Don't see above average athleticism or burst. Shades of Bogdon though he looks less muscular, so transition to the NBA may be a bit tougher. Late first, second rounder? Yes. Earlier? I don't think I would do it.

For me, the biggest difference between amateurs and college and college and the pros is size and efficiency of movement. I think we've all played against former D1 or former pros in different sports. And in my experience, besides size, their efficiency of movement was where the difference in levels are.