Second round picks generally take time before making an impact. You can count on one hand (with fingers left over) all the second round picks of the past two seasons who are my making a significant impact for their team.
Yeah, it's all about giving yourself some dart throws. If Herb can figure out the offense a bit, the Pelicans will have snagged a high level 12+year starter in the 2nd round. Pretty good. He's already an elite defender. Dosonmu looks solid for the Bulls, but he faded a bit down the stretch. Those are the 2 guys who have popped this year in the 2nd.
2021-Herb Jones, Ayo Dosunmu
2-total
2020- Tre Jones, Xavier Tillman, KJ Martin Jr
2-total
2019-Nic Claxton, Cody Martin, Daniel Gafford, Terrance Mann, Isaiah Roby, Horton-Tucker, Jalen McDaniels, Jaylen Nowell. (It's so typical Vlade; he had 3 2nd round picks in one of the deepest 2nd round hit rates and he missed on all of them lol. )
8-total
2018-Brunson, Graham, Mitch Rob, Gary Trent (we traded out of), Vanderbilt, Melton, Metu, Shake Milton
8-total
2017-Thomas Bryant, Isaiah Hartenstein (my boy), Dillon Brooks, Monte Morris
4-total
2016-Zubac, Brogdon, Georges Niang
3-total
2015-Cedi Osman, Montrezl Harrell, Wily Hernangomez, Richaun Holmes, Josh Richardson, Pat Connaughton
6-total
2014-Joe Harris, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jerami Grant, Nikola Jokic, Dwight Powell, Jordan Clarkson
6-total
2013-Allen Crabbe, Mike Muscala, Raul Neto, James Ennis
4-total
2012-Tomas Satoransky, Jae Crowder, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Will Barton, Kyle O'Quinn, Quincy Acy
7-total
Obviously need to give the last few drafts some more time to develop, but if we average the last 10 years of guys I'd consider NBA talent (of varying levels), it's comes out to about 5 NBA players every draft. And if we sort the actual difference makers (franchise changing talent):
Nikola Jokic, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon (8% of the 50 *NBA* talents in the 2nd round the last 10 years).
In other words, it's tough, but not impossible to find rotation players in the 2nd round. It's extraordinarily rare to find a franchise changer. So, dart throw, dart throw, dart throw.