Looking ahead to the 2022 Draft
- Thread starter Tetsujin
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This question is an interesting philosophical one. On the one hand, the GM evaluates two players before his eyes today. On the other hand, the GM visualizes what the two players will be two or three years from now. To compare two players today is not all that easy. To compare two players in one's imagination two to three years from now is even more problematic. Therefore, it must be discounted somewhat in favor of the evaluation of today. In finance, a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. It seem like for many a player evaluation today is worth less than an imaginary evaluation two or three years from now. There are some thing like length and skeletal frame that will not change. There are others like shooting percentage and improved basketball understanding that will change. To my mind, the variables that will change (shooting percentage, understanding of the game) for Mathurin vs Agbaji won't make up the difference in the constants that won't change (height, skeletal build, etc).
Yeah, and for Mathurin he's a better raw athlete than Agbaji. He's a beast physically, however Agbaji isn't a slouch either. At this point Agbaji looks like a more consistent and ready player relative to position for sure. Mathurin has a higher ceiling thanks to his athletic abilities but I don't think either are big risks to bust. This a pretty dang solid draft as far as that goes IMO. Then it comes to team needs. I'd be OK with either but I think Agbaji replaces some of the things they lost with Buddy being traded and Mathurin is a bit like a bigger version of Terence Davis simply in terms of play style. When it comes to most mocks, it's hard to see any players in the Kings range that can't come in and contribute immediately so there you go Monte.
Duren would be the ultimate "BPA I know better" pick. Basically Monte would be banking on an Adebayo like growth in his game to where he could play long-term with Sabonis.
McNair knows the deal, he understands his job is on the chopping block. I'd be very very surprised if he stuck to a BPA that hard while passing on really good prospects that can play with Fox/Sabonis. Gotta think he'll have some self-preseveration
McNair knows the deal, he understands his job is on the chopping block. I'd be very very surprised if he stuck to a BPA that hard while passing on really good prospects that can play with Fox/Sabonis. Gotta think he'll have some self-preseveration
Liddell will go in the first round, and a borderline lottery pick. He's a very skilled player who plays much taller than he is. He can put the ball on the floor and kill close outs. He's a deadly outside shooter, and he has a very good mid-range game. I did my best not to like Liddell for the very reasons you keep bringing up, but after watching him play in over 20 games, I finally had to concede that the dude is a very good player. I don't see a scenario where he ends up on the Kings, but if somehow he did, he would be very good next to Sabonis. Liddell is an outstanding help shot blocker and his timing is excellent.
Your not going to back him down either. He's very strong, especially in his lower base. He's also a plus athlete. The only comp that stood out to me was Paul Milsap. Similar body, undersized at the time, except that I think Liddell is a better defender at the same point in time. Although Milsap eventually became a good defender. There is no way on Gods earth that Liddell goes in the 2nd round in my opinion, and neither does his running mate Branham.
Your not going to back him down either. He's very strong, especially in his lower base. He's also a plus athlete. The only comp that stood out to me was Paul Milsap. Similar body, undersized at the time, except that I think Liddell is a better defender at the same point in time. Although Milsap eventually became a good defender. There is no way on Gods earth that Liddell goes in the 2nd round in my opinion, and neither does his running mate Branham.
Pick odds are kinda fun. Greater than 50% chance the Kings select at pick 7 or better, but the pick with the highest odds of where the Kings will select, on an individual basis, is #8 at 34.1%. Translated another way, a 34% chance someone behind the Kings will jump into the top 4.
https://tankathon.com/pick_odds
https://tankathon.com/pick_odds
Terrible shooter. Yeah, he started to shoot the ball better his last 8 to 10 games, but that's not enough for me to make him a lottery pick. I have him going in the 2nd round, and there is no way in hell I would take him in the lottery. There are some risers in the draft, like Malaki Branham, but he's not a shock that came out of nowhere. He's been teasing all season long, and most scouts, and myself are finally convinced that he's the real deal. Wouldn't shock me to see a team make a reach at the end of the lottery and snag him.
Dyson Daniels is another. Once again, he teased every time you saw him play and then in his last 10 games when he shot over 40% from three, to go along with his size and length as a potential PG, and being one of the best defenders in college, not a shock that he's rising up the draft boards. If I'm going to take a flyer on a player, it will be someone like that. Not a player who was absolutely horrible at scoring. I don't have his final numbers but at one point he was shooting 13.9% from three and 23.1% overall. I'm sure his final numbers aren't that bad, but I'm not going to talk myself into a player for no reason. How in the world is he better than Liddell? The only thing he's better at is he's taller!!
Dyson Daniels is another. Once again, he teased every time you saw him play and then in his last 10 games when he shot over 40% from three, to go along with his size and length as a potential PG, and being one of the best defenders in college, not a shock that he's rising up the draft boards. If I'm going to take a flyer on a player, it will be someone like that. Not a player who was absolutely horrible at scoring. I don't have his final numbers but at one point he was shooting 13.9% from three and 23.1% overall. I'm sure his final numbers aren't that bad, but I'm not going to talk myself into a player for no reason. How in the world is he better than Liddell? The only thing he's better at is he's taller!!
Well if I can jump in here I'd start by saying that I don't think you can go wrong with either player. I think their close talent wise at this moment. As to projecting the future, that's harder to do with the one and done player. There's no growth record to go on. But in the case of both Agbaji and Mathurin, we do have some growth records to refer to. And in both cases, both players got better every year. Particularly Agbaji, who increased his percentages as his attempts went up. His freshman year he shot 30.7% from three on 3.4 attempts. His sophomore year he shot 33.8% on 4.4 attempts. Junior year 37.7% on 6.9 attempts, and his senior year 40.7% on 6.5 attempts. That's the kind of growth your looking for., It shows he capable of getting better, and that he's willing to put in the work.
In Mathurin's case we only have two years to look at. In his case, his percentages went down with more volume, but that's the norm. But his overall scoring went up and didn't take a huge nose dive. He was still good. His freshman year he shot 41.8% from three on 3.5 attempts. His Sophomore year he shot right at 37% from three on 6.1 attempts. He scored around 8 more points a game. Point is, he got better. Both players are above average athletes and both players are good defenders. As I said, I don't think you can go wrong with either one, but for the Kings. I would lean toward Mathurin. Mathurin can play SF. He's a legit 6'7" and the Kings need help at that position. Agbaji is a pure SG. He does have good length and could spot at the SF position at times. but so can Terrance Davis.
My choice for the Kings is still Keegan Murray, but I don't know if he'll be there when we pick. Murray is a plus defender. Matter of fact he as a better defensive rating than almost all the projected lottery picks. By the way since there was some questions about Jabari Smiths defensive potential, he held everyone he defended to a shooting percentage average of 25%. That should be good enough for everyone.
In Mathurin's case we only have two years to look at. In his case, his percentages went down with more volume, but that's the norm. But his overall scoring went up and didn't take a huge nose dive. He was still good. His freshman year he shot 41.8% from three on 3.5 attempts. His Sophomore year he shot right at 37% from three on 6.1 attempts. He scored around 8 more points a game. Point is, he got better. Both players are above average athletes and both players are good defenders. As I said, I don't think you can go wrong with either one, but for the Kings. I would lean toward Mathurin. Mathurin can play SF. He's a legit 6'7" and the Kings need help at that position. Agbaji is a pure SG. He does have good length and could spot at the SF position at times. but so can Terrance Davis.
My choice for the Kings is still Keegan Murray, but I don't know if he'll be there when we pick. Murray is a plus defender. Matter of fact he as a better defensive rating than almost all the projected lottery picks. By the way since there was some questions about Jabari Smiths defensive potential, he held everyone he defended to a shooting percentage average of 25%. That should be good enough for everyone.
In my humble opinion, if were picking at 7, then Duren wouldn't be the best player available. He might be the best athlete available, but that's not the same thing. Murray, Mathurin, Griffin, Agbaji, Davis and Sochan are all better players. Three years from now, who knows, but right now, today, Duren isn't better than any of them. And, he's exactly what the Kings don't need. A player to clog the lane. He has no game away from the basket. He might develop a game away from the basket, but he might not. It wasn't until Adebayo's 3rd year that he started to look like the player we see today. And he still has no game away from the basket. Duren would be a very bad fit, and for that reason I seriously doubt that McNair would draft him.
I don't think Mathurin is a "beast" physically. He's not that big, skeletal frame isn't anything to rave about. His announced height of 6'7" is definitely exaggerated imo. He's not a "big" guard or a smallish forward; he's at best average height for his position of SG. He does have good quicks and speed though.
That's encouraging. It will be interesting to see where exactly Murray goes in the draft. I take it then that you think Murray is a full grade above Lyles in the defense category.
As for Smith, I wonder why he gets this 25% when I see him get blow-byes by Jackson State guys? When Smith is in the summer league I want to see how he reacts to a perimeter drivers (forwards, SGs) faking one way and going another. From what I saw he can't really get his body parts coordinated enough to handle it.
As for Smith, I wonder why he gets this 25% when I see him get blow-byes by Jackson State guys? When Smith is in the summer league I want to see how he reacts to a perimeter drivers (forwards, SGs) faking one way and going another. From what I saw he can't really get his body parts coordinated enough to handle it.
I'm curious to see what Baja thinks of Eason now too. We talked about him a bit at the beginning of the season but I'm sure Baja has watched more LSU games since.
I'm high on Eason, but he's a bit tough to evaluate because he was essentially LSU's sixth man and played a lot of his minutes as a backup center.
He'll have to be more perimeter oriented in the NBA. His FT% and his 3P% (albeit on fairly low volume) took a big jump after he transferred so there's some hope there. He plays a little wild right now, on both sides of the ball. But I'll take the fouls and moments of tunnel vision/turnovers because his motor runs hot. He was a major cog in that swarming LSU defense and is very active off ball.
If he can become a consistent outside shooter, he'd be a nice fit with Fox & especially Sabonis.
I'm high on Eason, but he's a bit tough to evaluate because he was essentially LSU's sixth man and played a lot of his minutes as a backup center.
He'll have to be more perimeter oriented in the NBA. His FT% and his 3P% (albeit on fairly low volume) took a big jump after he transferred so there's some hope there. He plays a little wild right now, on both sides of the ball. But I'll take the fouls and moments of tunnel vision/turnovers because his motor runs hot. He was a major cog in that swarming LSU defense and is very active off ball.
If he can become a consistent outside shooter, he'd be a nice fit with Fox & especially Sabonis.
There is a reason why freshmen with lesser numbers get taken over seniors who not only have better numbers, but are currently better players. That's because they have more time to grow and with 4 years of NCAA experience, they'll more than likely be better than that senior by the end of their stay. Frank Mason is a lottery pick if you're just going off of what he did as a senior.
I agree on the variables that won't change and that's a big part of it as well but give me the freshman who comes out of the gate running over a senior who took a couple years to hit his stride. Odds are that the freshman would be better than the senior by the end of his 4 years.
I agree on the variables that won't change and that's a big part of it as well but give me the freshman who comes out of the gate running over a senior who took a couple years to hit his stride. Odds are that the freshman would be better than the senior by the end of his 4 years.
Yeah, you can see the tools defensively with Eason for sure. Should have multi-position versatility with who he checks and you love to see his motor/effort. Love to see the growth in the 3pt shot (although still not entirely consistent) and held a 61 TS% on a massive 31.8% USG rate.
I'm not certain he's a wing though, especially if the shot isn't reliable. I'd want to see more reliable on-ball skills. The handle is pretty loose and he's not much of a playmaker. But really can't argue a 6'8, 7'0 wingspan super athletic 3/4 flex prospect. I'd much rather gamble on him being a rare archetype and potentially figuring it out.
I'm not certain he's a wing though, especially if the shot isn't reliable. I'd want to see more reliable on-ball skills. The handle is pretty loose and he's not much of a playmaker. But really can't argue a 6'8, 7'0 wingspan super athletic 3/4 flex prospect. I'd much rather gamble on him being a rare archetype and potentially figuring it out.
It took me a while but I'm buying in on Eason. He got better and better as the season wore on, especially his outside shot. He's a bit like DiVincenzo. He creates havoc on defense, and is a little streaky on offense. However, I think he has a fairly high ceiling and could end up being one of the better players out of this draft. Every player in this draft has flaws, some greater than others, and some more important than others. For instance, the fact that a player needs to improve his handles, doesn't bother me nearly as much as the player that needs to improve his outside shot. Of course in some cases the cure is as simple as shot selection. I think that's the case with DiVincenzo.
Eason ended the season shooting almost right at 36% from three. That's certainly respectable. In his last ten games he shot 40% from three. However, he took less than 3 a game, so the sample size is small. But when you add in that he's a good free throw shooter, I'd say that history is on his side. I have Eason going at 12 in my latest mock, which I haven't posted yet.
Eason ended the season shooting almost right at 36% from three. That's certainly respectable. In his last ten games he shot 40% from three. However, he took less than 3 a game, so the sample size is small. But when you add in that he's a good free throw shooter, I'd say that history is on his side. I have Eason going at 12 in my latest mock, which I haven't posted yet.
I don't disagree with what you said, but like anything else, one size doesn't fit all. By that I mean, it's an individual thing. Obviously every Senior player isn't going to be great simply because he's had four years of college experience. To me, the biggest difference is the ability to see the growth of a player over four years. Much easier to get a read on him than a one and done player, unless that one and done player is very special. And then you don't care!.
I think your seeing more four year players getting considered for the lottery and the first round in general. Anyone that saw Malcolm Brogdon play at Virginia knew the kid was a baller, but he went in the 2nd rd because he was a senior. And then he won ROY. I think that woke everyone up a bit. From a financial point of view, players like Brogdon and Agbaji are great investments. You get a player that's more ready to play on a cheap contract for four years. Will the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft be a better player overall? Yeah, probably, but not right away unless they're named Jordon or Lebron, and they come at a higher price, and by the time their ready to really contribute, they're up for an extension.
But you can't really compare the two. One is a high draft pick, probably top five, and other is either at the bottom of the lottery or a mid 1st rd pick. The team that drafts Agbaji will likely get more of a contribution out of him than the team that drafts Ivey next year. Five years from now, Ivey should be the better player. But who cares? You've already had four good years out of Agbaji at a cheaper price.
I think your seeing more four year players getting considered for the lottery and the first round in general. Anyone that saw Malcolm Brogdon play at Virginia knew the kid was a baller, but he went in the 2nd rd because he was a senior. And then he won ROY. I think that woke everyone up a bit. From a financial point of view, players like Brogdon and Agbaji are great investments. You get a player that's more ready to play on a cheap contract for four years. Will the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft be a better player overall? Yeah, probably, but not right away unless they're named Jordon or Lebron, and they come at a higher price, and by the time their ready to really contribute, they're up for an extension.
But you can't really compare the two. One is a high draft pick, probably top five, and other is either at the bottom of the lottery or a mid 1st rd pick. The team that drafts Agbaji will likely get more of a contribution out of him than the team that drafts Ivey next year. Five years from now, Ivey should be the better player. But who cares? You've already had four good years out of Agbaji at a cheaper price.
It depends on the definition and position he plays, I think he can full time at SG and he's huge for that spot. He plays quite strong, is very bouncy, and does bounce guys inside once in the air. As time goes on I think he'll learn to use his physicality even better which will actually suit him better at the NBA level.
Not meant as a comp, but it could be. I heard these exact same comments made about another player that I wanted the Kings to draft. Mikal Bridges! He wasn't really 6'8". He didn't have a good enough frame. He wouldn't stand up to the physicality of the NBA etc. etc. etc. Well he's now the iron man of the NBA having never missed a game in his career, and he's one of the best defensive players in the NBA, and yes he can put the ball on the floor and go to the basket, and yes, he really is a good shooter. Sometimes Kingster we can overthink these things. Mathurin has all the tools to be a very good player. Can I guarantee he will become that player? No! No one can, but I know what my eye's tell me. Remember, every college player is a victim of the system he plays in and many times, that system restricts what he can do.
That's exactly why I watch so many games. In he hope that the player will have one of those moments and just explode. I've had those with Mathurin. Not often, but non the less I saw them just like I did many years ago while watching Kevin Johnson play at Cal, under head coach Lou Campanelli. Campanelli was a walk the ball up the floor, half court coach, and that's how Johnson played. But every once in a while, Johnson would just explode and it took you by surprise, but you realized there was more there than you thought. He was my pick for the Kings that year, but we took Kenny Smith instead.
Some players are harder to get a read on. Such as Jeremy Sochan from Baylor. I started watching Baylor to see Kendall Brown, but it wasn't long before that I realized that Sochan was a much better player. I think the coach realized that as well as Sochan's minutes went up, and his name got called on offense more and more often. They started running the ball through him. Everytime they needed a stop, it was Sochan that got the steal, or the rebound, or the blocked shot. He needs to work on his outside shot, but I have no doubt that he's going to be a very good NBA player. He's not fancy with a lot of dazzle that gets your attention. He simply does all the little things that don't show up in a box score that help you win. I love the kid! He's a very good defender by the way...
That's exactly why I watch so many games. In he hope that the player will have one of those moments and just explode. I've had those with Mathurin. Not often, but non the less I saw them just like I did many years ago while watching Kevin Johnson play at Cal, under head coach Lou Campanelli. Campanelli was a walk the ball up the floor, half court coach, and that's how Johnson played. But every once in a while, Johnson would just explode and it took you by surprise, but you realized there was more there than you thought. He was my pick for the Kings that year, but we took Kenny Smith instead.
Some players are harder to get a read on. Such as Jeremy Sochan from Baylor. I started watching Baylor to see Kendall Brown, but it wasn't long before that I realized that Sochan was a much better player. I think the coach realized that as well as Sochan's minutes went up, and his name got called on offense more and more often. They started running the ball through him. Everytime they needed a stop, it was Sochan that got the steal, or the rebound, or the blocked shot. He needs to work on his outside shot, but I have no doubt that he's going to be a very good NBA player. He's not fancy with a lot of dazzle that gets your attention. He simply does all the little things that don't show up in a box score that help you win. I love the kid! He's a very good defender by the way...
You never know. Tyrese was slotted to go 4th or 5th in his draft and fell to 12th. Davion had some slotted slippage but was also getting mocked to the Warriors or Magic in a ton of mocks.
All it takes is one or two teams getting irrationally high on Jalen Duren or something and Murray could slide down a slot or two.
All it takes is one or two teams getting irrationally high on Jalen Duren or something and Murray could slide down a slot or two.