[Game] Kings vs. Celtics, Sunday Nov. 17th, 12:30 PM PT/3:30 PM ET

kb02

kb02

All-Star
#1
#1
My projections have Boston winning 110.7 to 103.7. A 7 point spread, which seems about right. The stats are closer than I assumed. The biggest gap is turnovers and because the spread is 3 possessions, the key match up will Buddy Hield vs. Dummy Hield's decision making and ball handling.

The Key Stats follow:

1. Rebounding is about even. Relative to each other, the Kings have a 12% offensive boarding advantage while the Celts have a 15% defensive boarding advantage. Both teams hover 5 to 7% on either side of the range relative to league average in both categories.

2. Offensive assists. The gap between the two teams is 12% in Boston's favor. The Kings coming at -8% relative to the league average while Boston comes in at 4% above league average.

3. Defensive assists (assists given). The Kings, for the first time this year, have a defensive assist advantage. Giving up 6.6% less assists than Boston. With the Kings coming in 8.5% less than league average while Boston is giving up 1.9% less than league average. This is by far the biggest reason for the Kings recent performance--defense and defending the lanes.

4. Turnovers. Boston has a 32% advantage. Boston has -27% less turnovers relative to the league while the Kings have 5% more turnovers than the league. Given the 7 point gap, this is where Dummy Hield comes in. Limit his usual 2 to 3 WTF plays and it's a one possession game, decided within the last minute. Play his usual self and it's a 7 to 10 point loss.

The line is Kings +3. Opened at +4. So the public is coming on the Kings. I don't think I'll play this game, but if I did, I would likely buy 3 points to make it a 2 to 3 possession spread.

Side note: Stats have Fox and Gordon Hayward biases. Boston, with Hayward, has been the best team that I've seen this year.
 
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burekijogurt

Starter
#2
#2
I think we will outrebound them as we did Lakers. Kings have been rebounding better as of late and if the rebounding being even stat includes first 5 games we might have an advantage now.

it will be a different defensive effort than vs Lakers and their superstars. we will have to guard the whole team. they are not as big as the Lakers but very athletic. Cojo will need to do what he did vs Lillard...
 
kb02

kb02

All-Star
#3
#3
burekijogurt said:
I think we will outrebound them as we did Lakers. Kings have been rebounding better as of late and if the rebounding being even stat includes first 5 games we might have an advantage now.

it will be a different defensive effort than vs Lakers and their superstars. we will have to guard the whole team. they are not as big as the Lakers but very athletic. Cojo will need to do what he did vs Lillard...
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I agree. Boston's bigs are subpar and think the Kings should eke out a boarding advantage.

With Hayward, I think Boston blows out the Kings. Without him, their main scorers will be Kemba and Tatum with Jaylen Brown giving switch knife production. I think Marcus Smart + Jaylen Brown on Buddy Hield will be a nightmare. Buddy really needs to play within himself tonight--can easily see him getting picked clean a few times today.

Should be fun a game. I really like Boston's sets. Kemba is a better fit for them than Kyrie. Maybe Dedmon goes off and the Celts trade for him? :) They'll need to upgrade their bigs this year.
 
OffTheWallJamal

OffTheWallJamal

Starter
#5
#5
I had to take out my old notebook to see something, because today is a very special occasion, Latvian television will show this game live on tv, as I have written in my notebook the last time the Latvian television showed a live Kings game was back in March 28th, 2010 against Cleveland Cavaliers, which I off course watched.

Have not seen a lot of games this season because of the time difference as I understand (now) I need to get some sleep at night, but it's nice to catch and cheer for the Kings in an early game!

Let's go!
 
Kingster

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#7
#7
kb02 said:
My projections have Boston winning 110.7 to 103.7. A 7 point spread, which seems about right. The stats are closer than I assumed. The biggest gap is turnovers and because the spread is 3 possessions, the key match up will Buddy Hield vs. Dummy Hield's decision making and ball handling.

The Key Stats follow:

1. Rebounding is about even. Relative to each other, the Kings have a 12% offensive boarding advantage while the Celts have a 15% defensive boarding advantage. Both teams hover 5 to 7% on either side of the range relative to league average in both categories.

2. Offensive assists. The gap between the two teams is 12% in Boston's favor. The Kings coming at -8% relative to the league average while Boston comes in at 4% above league average.

3. Defensive assists (assists given). The Kings, for the first time this year, have a defensive assist advantage. Giving up 6.6% less assists than Boston. With the Kings coming in 8.5% less than league average while Boston is giving up 1.9% less than league average. This is by far the biggest reason for the Kings recent performance--defense and defending the lanes.

4. Turnovers. Boston has a 32% advantage. Boston has -27% less turnovers relative to the league while the Kings have 5% more turnovers than the league. Given the 7 point gap, this is where Dummy Hield comes in. Limit his usual 2 to 3 WTF plays and it's a one possession game, decided within the last minute. Play his usual self and it's a 7 to 10 point loss.

The line is Kings +3. Opened at +4. So the public is coming on the Kings. I don't think I'll play this game, but if I did, I would likely buy 3 points to make it a 2 to 3 possession spread.

Side note: Stats have Fox and Gordon Hayward biases. Boston, with Hayward, has been the best team that I've seen this year.
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LOL.:D
 
Kingster

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#8
#8
It's weird with their assist number, but when I look at Boston they continue to look like they did last year, not that cohesive, and more individualistic in their approach. In a recent Mavs game Tatum came down the floor for a jack-fest, going 1-18 from the floor. (I know, it's the Doncic factor:p). It was one of the all time "greatest" clanging-boinging performances I've ever seen.

I hope the Celts see the Kings as a bottom dweller because they appear to play down to their competition. In the last three games they've beaten the Warriors by five, the Wizards by seven, and the Mavericks by 10. If the Kings continue with their defensive effort and team approach to offense they should have a good shot at winning. It would help if Hield keeps his mindless turnovers down to at most two this game and not try to prove his dribbling skill against Marcus Smart.
 
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burekijogurt

Starter
#11
#11
ESP47 said:
Really wish we could have picked up Marcus Smart when he was a FA. His offense efficiency has improved a lot the last couple years, making him a very valuable player with his already elite defense.
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I don't think he had any interest even with the prospect of being paid more than what Ainge eventually gave him.
 
VF21

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
#18
#18
I think the guys must have had an extra order from Starbuck's this morning. They're looking good. Love how Bjelica is mixing it up...
 
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