Surely? Either you're unfamiliar with the last several years of NBA basketball in the western conference, or you can see into the future, or you don't know what "surely" means. Last year, the 7th seed had 50 wins. The year before, the 8th seed had 48.
Now, if you want to say that, based on what everybody's winning percentages are right now, that if they all hold up for the remainder of the season, then 48 wins will be good enough for the fifth seed... Eh, that's still a stretch, IYAM. I have no reason to believe that at all, and there's no particularly recent historical evidence to support such a belief. I wouldn't even bet the price of a good meal that a forty-eight win team won't miss the playoffs altogether; I absolutely wouldn't claim that such a record would be assured of a sixth seed.
Now, if you want to say that, based on what everybody's winning percentages are right now, that if they all hold up for the remainder of the season, then 48 wins will be good enough for the fifth seed... Eh, that's still a stretch, IYAM. I have no reason to believe that at all, and there's no particularly recent historical evidence to support such a belief. I wouldn't even bet the price of a good meal that a forty-eight win team won't miss the playoffs altogether; I absolutely wouldn't claim that such a record would be assured of a sixth seed.
But that would mean losing only 11 from here on out (your math is good).
We still have all these very losable games on our schedule: Memphis, Bulls, Cavs, Spurs, Clippers, OKC, Memphis, Mavs, Spurs, Cavs, Bulls, Mavs, OKC, Rockets. Hard to win any of those - those are all upsets if we win them and we have to have three of those plus be perfect against everyone else. We have some toughies vs Pistons, Celtics, Nuggets, Blazers, Heat, and yes these Pacers.... These games are all in front of us with 11 to give (your number, not mine, but lets go with it because I like 48 wins as a stretch goal and I think we can do it).
I don't think this agenda gives us latitude to lose against the Pacers coming off a bruising loss, on the road - when we're rested at home. I think we've spent too many squandered games this year already and if the mental toughness is really settling in - then our guys should come out like tigers and make sure tonight. So lets see - I hope they do.