Oh that's intriguing.
I'm a lot higher on Chet than a lot here, so I'm in. He or Jabari are like that perfect cross-over of excellent fits with Fox/Sabonis while being super high upside talents.
KINGS PICKING 4TH IN 2022 NBA DRAFT!
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Oh that's intriguing.
I'm a lot higher on Chet than a lot here, so I'm in. He or Jabari are like that perfect cross-over of excellent fits with Fox/Sabonis while being super high upside talents.
There are glass-half-empty ways to look at it, and glass-half-full ways to look at it. Going back to the 2000 draft (which seems far enough) there have been 102 players selected who have gone on to be All-Stars. Obviously there are going to be a few more yet to come from the most recent drafts, but that's about 5 All-Stars available in an average draft. Of those guys, 29 were selected in the first three picks, while 72 were available at the #4 pick. That means that in an average draft about 1.5 All-Stars are selected in the first three picks, and there are about 3.5 All-Stars remaining in the pool at #4. They're there. You just have to find them.
Yes, not all All-Stars are the same caliber, and this is why the first-pass expectation is that Smith/Banchero/Holmgren will go top three, because the expectation is that they're the most likely to become great. Still, we get our pick of everybody else, and history shows that there will be good players available. Maybe it's as easy as taking Sharpe, or Ivey, or Murray. Maybe we should dig a bit deeper into the Mathurin/Davis/Griffin tier, or go outside the box with Duren or Dieng or Daniels. Maybe it's Agbaji who's the next superstar. The great thing is, we don't have to take guys who are mocked in the #4 range at #4, we can identify the next stud and take them no matter where they are mocked. The next stud will be there - in fact probably at least 3 or 4 of them. Hopefully we can trust Monte to identify that stud and take him.
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Sac.Kings
All-Star
Granted, all of that is true but there also significant misses with picks 1-3 as well. I get what you mean, but to just about dismiss the 4th pick altogether seems super pessimistic. There are plenty of picks after #4 that came to be super significant players, 2 of which have won the last 4 MVPs. Some of that is luck, other is player development from the staff and some of it is up to the players themselves. Kobe was 13th, Larry Bird 6th, D-Wade was 5th…
I am not trying to prove the 4th pick is a golden ticket or anything, but one can confidently say there is plenty of history of absolutely great and even best of all time players taken at 4 or later.
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
I can’t imagine any of those teams have incentive to move down though? Okc has way too many picks already. Orlando isn’t going to move off one imo and Houston needs a big piece still.
Unless one of them wants Davion?
kb02
All-Star
I remember reading here or even StR back in the day people questioning his athleticism and him playing euro league vs ncaa. I don’t remember a particular scout or analyst specifically but from most of his detractors, those were the question marks that might people had from him becoming a superstar. Of course they were wrong but hindsight is 20/20. (Keep in mind, as proven by @kb02 my memory isn’t the greatest)
Lolzz.
I think it was like 99/1 in favor of drafting Luka. Both here and on other Kings fan forum sites. Unfortunately. Brandon “Spida” Williams was in that 1% category, but happened to be in a decision making position. Dude deserves to never work in an NBA front office again.
Yeah, OKC doesn't "need" the picks, but I think it depends where Ivey or Sharpe are on their board. If he's their #2 prospect, why not trade down to 4 and get like at minimum a top 5 protected Kings FRP? With how big a disaster this franchise has historically been, could be a great bet and you get the guy you want anyway.
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
they just have to be sure we aren’t coming for Sharpe
Yeah I'm pretty sure that's how these conversations go. "Hey, we're trading up for Jabari or Chet, not touching Ivey/Sharpe" sort of thing. I suppose we could lie, but Monte's rep around the league would be ruined if he snaked OKC in the deal.
EIM86
Starter
100% Cap lol
Monte doesn’t even like talking at press conferences and prefers closed doors. We also don’t have Dumars leaking everything anymore
Telemachus
Starter
I like Ivey as a prospect, but he has one flaw to his game that scares me. He has no mid range at all that I have seen. Everything is either beyond the 3pt line or at the basket. He will have to add that to his game to be a star player.
Kingster
Hall of Famer
The thing that concerns me is that every time I saw him play he seemed to be falling down a lot for no apparent reason. Hopefully, it was due to something like his shoes being crap. Other than that, he seems similar to Fox with a better outside shot at 36% in his soph year vs. Fox's 24% in freshman yr .
EIM86
Starter
Ivey’s TO% was only 14% while Ja’s was 28% @ Murray State; literally double. Ivey plays at blazing speed but the numbers say he’s in control without even a good handle since he dribbles kinda high but can definitely improve with time.
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
My concern with Ivey Is if his Fox level defense holds true. If it does you have one of the worst starting defensive backcourts in the league. If his offense is a level better than Fox, you are stuck trying to trade a max contract with very little leverage. Basically the only way this works out is if his defense is league average and he is a plus offensive player. That is a possibility
Chupacabra
Starter
If we just had a Fox/Haliburton backcourt and split it up in a trade, why would we ever draft Ivey and hold onto a Fox/Ivey backcourt? Ivey would be picked with the intention of moving either him or Fox. Probably would just move Ivey.
KainLear
Starter
I mean, based on measurements and athletic profile, Bagley definitely can jump and touch a higher ceiling than Doncic, if not, his lightning second jump certainly will.
Sorry I'll go back to my alone-corner.
That's only half the story though.
Morant's AST% was 51.8% while Ivey's was 19.2%.
Morant had an AST/TO of almost exactly 2:1 and Ivey was just under 1.2:1.
As a whole the numbers tell me the same thing the eye test did - Ivey is more of a scoring guard and not a lead guard, at least at this stage. That may allow him to fit better alongside Fox as a SG vs another PG, but I think it may also limit his star potential.
Big, blazingly fast and athletic PGs have MVP potential. Derrick Rose, Ja Morant, Russell Westbrook, maybe even pre-injury John Wall.
But slightly undersized, super athletic SGs are a different story. That puts Ivey more into the Victor Oladipo, Zach LaVine, Donovan Mitchell mold.
That's still potentially a valuable player, but maybe not a franchise changer. I wouldn't be upset if Ivey were the pick. You'd want a great shooter to round out the starting five and some additional bench shooting as well, but that's a backcourt that will attack the basket for sure.
EIM86
Starter
assists have nothing to do with turnover percentage though. The numbers still say he’s very in control with the ball in his hands while going blazing speed. It could hurt his star potential playing alongside Fox sure that is a wait and see thing. Getting to the foul line all day would be great!
Jesus, that Ja stat profile when he popped as a sophomore is insane;
51% AST
33% USG
61% TS
36% from 3
24.8 PPG
Literally the entire offense was created by Ja Morant.
I mean, based on measurements and athletic profile, Bagley definitely can jump and touch a higher ceiling than Doncic, if not, his lightning second jump certainly will.
Ha! You get two enthusiastic thumbs up from me!
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
Ok I’ve got it out of my system. I don’t need to discuss the pick for at least a day.
That might be Mathurin? Klay is an inch taller but in every other measurable (wingspan, standing reach, weight, hand size) they're almost identical. And both guys flew under the radar because they played in the Pac 12 and were shunted into the "future role-player" category because of their perceived limitations as defenders and ballhandlers.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
And also at the time while pick and roll was very important fast forwarding just a few years and it's even more so. Today, Luka goes 1 with that pnr game.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
Holmgren could change the direction of this franchise for the next decade +. If they are moving future picks to get there and Holmgren busted it could be into disasterous purgatory, which is nothing new, but if it worked, wow.
People want to gamble and swing for the fences, might as well go big or go home.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
Because they aren't close to the same type of players in both positive and negative ways. Look at that Ivey scouting report. He's entirely different. The Kings tried to put a passing PG like Haliburton next to Fox more than once, this isn't a PG, Ivey is a SG with potential to run an offense. It's even right there in his college numbers. He's got no middle game right now, but guess where Fox lives? No crossover there either.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
Hence why if you're expecting Ivey to be a SG, you're probably getting what you expect. I personally always thought he was in that Oladipo/Wade/Mitchell mold. I'll take that any day.
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
Yep, every detractor was "the NBA is going to be too fast/strong for him". Some people suggested his body meant he didn't care about the game. And then there was the chatter that he had already hit his ceiling. It was dumb.I remember reading here or even StR back in the day people questioning his athleticism and him playing euro league vs ncaa. I don’t remember a particular scout or analyst specifically but from most of his detractors, those were the question marks that might people had from him becoming a superstar. Of course they were wrong but hindsight is 20/20. (Keep in mind, as proven by @kb02 my memory isn’t the greatest
And it's not like there weren't Luka fans like me that gave Marvin a chance. I really did. I even saw what the Marvin people saw early in that first season. BUT HE NEVER GREW. ugggh.
Yeah it makes no sense to me to deal with OKC, and I'd be far more comfortable if it was for Jabari than Chet. I really hope Orlando takes Chet and we just don't have to worry. If he is the best player in the draft, great, he was picked first!
Of course they do. Every attempted pass is a chance for a turnover.
You can't point to Ivey having a lower turnover percentage than Morant as a point in his favor without also acknowledging that he passed the ball far less often.
On the general premise (that Ivey takes care of the ball fairly well despite moving faster than almost anyone else with the basketball) I agree. But he played a very different style than Morant.
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