KINGS PICKING 4TH IN 2022 NBA DRAFT!

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Seems recall Bajaden saying Mathurin was his favorite player available in this years draft and Kings couldn't go wrong drafting him.
I think he said that about Keegan Murray but he's been high on Mathurin too. Those guys are 1-2 for me but I do prefer Mathurin for a number of reasons. His ballhandling and passing are both better than most are giving him credit for. Nobody watches the Pac-12 unless they live on the west coast so it's hard to take some of these scouting reports too seriously (the one you posted is one of the better breakdowns but it is 4 months old and Mathurin improved a lot in the second half of the season -- I'm sure Hoops Intellect will post a full breakdown on him before the draft though).

I like that his dribble moves are almost always toward the basket - he doesn't dance side to side trying to create an opening. but if one is there he'll take it. He can not only shoot it from deep but he's got a quick release and he specializes in catch and shoot jumpers. And he shot the ball even better as a Freshman (42% from 3 and 85% at the line). He's a serious weapon as a cutter too because he's got great timing and when he elevates his head is at rim level. His leaping ability also makes him a factor on the offensive glass.

As for weaknesses, the big one is defensive intensity. He's a capable defender but he doesn't get locked in consistently. That's the biggest area he needs to improve but the same is true for Ivey, Banchero, and Sharpe (in HS). I also didn't see him take a lot of midrange jumpers.-- his offense is primarily at the rim or from behind the three point line. I suspect this is the biggest reason why he's often dismissed as a secondary option scorer and less of a star than Ivey or Sharpe, but it's not like he can't create shots off the dribble. I've seen him create high percentage shots with drive and kicks, dump off passes, and step backs from a live dribble. It wasn't a big part of his game at Arizona but that was probably by design. Most modern coaches don't want their players taking mid-range jumpers anymore except as a last resort and Arizona had a balanced offense and didn't need any single player to dominate the ball.

So the shooting is already there. He's at least the equal of Ivey and Sharpe as an athlete, he just does most of his damage on catch and shoots and finishing backdoor cuts or lobs. He's a good enough passer and ballhandler for a wing with some room for improvement but some encouraging growth in those areas throughout the season. The defense needs to be better but he's had moments where he stifles ballhandlers and comes up with big steals so there's some projectability. Effort seems to be where he lags behind so I'm glad we finally hired a defensive coach. That gives him a chance of developing into a complete player. And the X-Factor for me is that he comes across as somebody who really loves playing team basketball and turns up his intensity in big moments and big games.
 
Where was it said sometimes when everyone is trying for a homerun when you just need a double.

This has been why it's always been Smith, Murray, Mathurin for me.

At first it was hope Murray falls but just take Mathurin if he doesn't, now I'm hoping Smith falls but if not just take Murray.

I do not want a player who is allergic to defense that "we can just teach". I don't care if it means that we only get the second best player available to us at our spot. I would 100x rather be the Suns or the Hawks than where we have been as Kings fans since 2018.
Who is allergic though? And when it comes to defense it's all about the ability to either switch or stay close to your man. If you can't do that, or you can't switch you're toast anyway.
 
I have sincere questions about Banchero, Ivey and Sharpe on D.
Do you have questions about Rudy Gobert? DPOY, 1st team all D, bounced by pick and roll cause he can't cover out and switch. It's a different day, physical tools are more important than ever. Banchero is iffy but I think he can be OK. Ivey I think can be a stud. Sharpe could be as well. Supreme athlete, long, etc. Will he buy in on that end? Who knows, but if he lives up to his potential offensively he's a star SG/SF anyway. The most important position in the league right now.
 
I don't know if this has been posted yet:


This is about as a good a scouting report you're going to get I think. Towards the beginning you get a good look at his fit inside of the Purdue motion system and how he could be a terrific fit for Sabonis. I totally agree, if you take him in the top 3, you think he can develop those PG skill, outside he's a good combo G/SG.
 
Yeah, the appeal of Sharpe is the same as the concern - there's just so much we don't know. He could be a #1 overall talent that the Kings land at #4 or a kid that takes a long time to adjust to the speed of the NBA game and tops out as an average SG. If he's the pick I will just have to trust that McNair and team saw and heard enough to be convinced.

That said, if McNair is going into the season without an extension I think it makes Sharpe very unlikely. The inference would be that he's out as GM if the Kings don't make the playoffs and Sharpe likely doesn't provide as much immediate impact as say, Keegan Murray. Again, why I don't like the idea of lame duck GMs. Coaches can make short term moves. Front offices should be thinking long term and that's hard to do if you job is always on the line.
Sharpe is an interesting one for me. I would be interested know kore about his mindset than his skillset.

His ceiling is high and I think you swing to the fences with the pick. Aim for the star. Having DC around to help develop him would be highly beneficial as well.

Murray is such a safe pick who can come in and fit well from day 1. Fills a need, does just about everything you need but does not screem star.

While having Fox and Sabonis is great, neither of them is a super star and if you have a chance to draft one, you do it. DV would do as a starter for the time being until Sharpe develops.

Just too much of an unknown for everyone. That’s why the FO personnel earn the big bucks. Its their choice to make and Monte has done reasonably well with his picks so far.

There is still a pretty high likelihood that the pick gets traded for a proven veteran.
 
One big question about swinging for the fences on guys with potential to become superstar vs a good player with low floor. Do you trust the Kings organization to help this player reach their potential? When was the last time the kings drafted someone and coached them to become a star vs set them up for failure. That’s my biggest concern for drafting a high risk/high potential guy.
If its Sharpe, having DC taking him under his wing and work with him would be of tremendous value.
 
The 4th pick is a good pick. But it's not a 1st or 2nd or 3rd pick. There aren't that many all-star caliber talents in any particular draft, so I don't know why fans are so fixated on turning the 4th pick into a big swing superstar. It's not terribly realistic. The historical odds are just not that favorable for "swinging big" with the 4th pick.

Yes, moving up in the draft was awesome, but it's not as if the Kings scored the first pick. Even then, the consensus isn't sold on Holmgren or Smith Jr. or Banchero becoming future stars. They all have sizable flaws. You pick within the confines of the draft in front of you, not the draft you wish it was. This draft has quite a bit of depth, but it isn't particularly top heavy. There's a lot of uncertainty regarding the star potential represented in the lottery.

Getting nothing more than a full-time starter out of the 4th pick would not be ideal, but it also would not be historically unusual for a team picking 4th. Kings fans would do well to calibrate their expectations accordingly, and if the goal remains securing the team's first playoff berth in over a decade-and-a-half, well, filling out the lineup with true starting-caliber talent (and preferably two-way talent) would be an excellent place to begin.
Why all the negativity about picking 4th? This isn’t the first time you said this and I’m not sure I really understand. There is always a chance that players never develop into who you hoped they would be, and then there are players that develop when no one expected them to. You absolutely can find franchise altering talent at 4 with proper studying of players, interviews and luck. We picked Cousins 5th ourselves, we just sucked at managing that situation and it ended up going nowhere. Tyreke was 4th, and Curry came after him. Giannis was halfway through the first round and Jokic was in the second round! You’re talking about the last 4 MVPs that were handed out. I just can’t agree with your thinking here. If the Kings think that one or two of these guys have that type of talent or close to it, you take it and run. Forget fit. Figure that out after.
 
I have not seen Sharpe play in a real game but everything about his story and talk of skillset and potential reminds me of Exum 2.0 in that he never played college/pro ball before the NBA and Exum was hyped for him unreal athletic ability and potential......Very risky just from what it's sounding like but I honestly don't know.
 
It’s all reading. When it comes to the draft I cram just enough to make myself know enough to sound stupid… That said, the read I’m getting is a good solid plug and play pro but with limited star ability. I really want to swing for the fences.
Haha. That’s what people were saying about Doncic before his draft. That’s probably why Vlade passed on Doncic.

Just because a player may have the highest floor, it doesn’t mean they can’t also have the highest ceiling also. ;)
 
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Haha. That’s what people were saying about Doncic before his draft. That’s probably why Vlade passed on Doncic.

Just because a player may have the highest floor, it doesn’t mean they can’t also have the highest ceiling also. ;)
Doncic was 18 and winning the MVP in the 2nd most competitive league in the world. He was a different animal and people that tricked themselves into thinking that were always asinine.
 
Murray, Ivey, Sharps and Mathurin are all super interesting options to me (which also opens up trade down possibilities). But it all comes down to the mentals.

Mathurin thinks he’s the man and he plays with power. I think (don’t know) that he’ll show untapped off the dribble and defensive skills in the pros. My biggest concern with him is stiffness/wiggle. He may have that, but I’ve seen more straight line drives from him.
 
I have not seen Sharpe play in a real game but everything about his story and talk of skillset and potential reminds me of Exum 2.0 in that he never played college/pro ball before the NBA and Exum was hyped for him unreal athletic ability and potential......Very risky just from what it's sounding like but I honestly don't know.
There really isn't a great comparison for Sharpe's situation.

There hasn't been a prep to pros player since 2005 but historically they've been a grab bag ranging from Garnett, Kobe, TMac, and LeBron to DeShawn Stevenson, Darius Miles, Robert Swift, and Martell Webster.

Giannis and Pokusevski played professionally but at levels of competition that were on par with high level US high school games.

Wiseman at least played in 3 games and Kyrie in 10 or 11 before they went #2 and #1 respectively.

So Exum might be the closest example. And their measureables are pretty similar too.

Dante Exum
6'4.5" w/o shoes, 6'6" w/ shoes, 8'7" standing reach, 6'9.5" wingspan, 196.3 lbs at 6.4% body fat

Shaedon Sharpe
6'4.25" w/o shoes, 6'5.25" w/ shoes, 8'7.5" standing reach, 6'11.5" wingspan, 198 lbs at 4.8% body fat

I think Sharpe shows a lot more shot creation ability and significantly better mechanics than Exum had, while Exum had a lightning quick first step. But no doubt that Sharpe is a big gamble by a front office. We don't have any info on how he deals with adversity, or how he plays after a big loss, how he reacts in crunchtime, or when guarded by (or guarding) bigger or quicker players. College games both help show whether a player can hang at the next level and a lot of details about their play that you can't decipher in an empty gym.

Sharpe has at least practiced with Kentucky so I think he has some idea of how good he could be at the college level. And he's played against some top tier HS talent at EYBL but that's very little to go on.

If he's there at #4 and McNair takes him, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. He seems like a good fit with Fox, Sabonis, and Barnes. But it's a risky move.
 
Haha. That’s what people were saying about Doncic before his draft. That’s probably why Vlade passed on Doncic.

Just because a player may have the highest floor, it doesn’t mean they can’t also have the highest ceiling also. ;)
I'm a bit confused on who are the people that were saying that? Who are the people that thought a 6'8 elite playmaker with absolute top tier basketball IQ was somehow low ceiling? Im especially interested on who thought a non defending big with low bbiq and below average shooting ability had somehow higher ceiling on how valuable that player could become. Are those people viewed as well informed talent evaluators?

Compared to Murray, Luka is at least a couple of tiers above him as a prospect. +6'8 elite playmakers with elite basketball IQ are extremely rare and probably the most valuable player types overall. Elite 3&D wings are obviously extremely valuable but elite creation at that size is probably the most valuable trait in the whole league
 
I don't know if this has been posted yet:


This is about as a good a scouting report you're going to get I think. Towards the beginning you get a good look at his fit inside of the Purdue motion system and how he could be a terrific fit for Sabonis. I totally agree, if you take him in the top 3, you think he can develop those PG skill, outside he's a good combo G/SG.
wow as much as i like Ivey, I thought the fit with Fox would be potentially a little rough. But after watching this, Ivey played off ball quite a lot due to him being the fastest player on the team. With Brown loving the Princeton offense, Fox AND Ivey?! Yikes watch out NBA cause y’all gonna be gassed by the 3rd quarter
 
I'm a bit confused on who are the people that were saying that? Who are the people that thought a 6'8 elite playmaker with absolute top tier basketball IQ was somehow low ceiling? Im especially interested on who thought a non defending big with low bbiq and below average shooting ability had somehow higher ceiling on how valuable that player could become. Are those people viewed as well informed talent evaluators?

Compared to Murray, Luka is at least a couple of tiers above him as a prospect. +6'8 elite playmakers with elite basketball IQ are extremely rare and probably the most valuable player types overall. Elite 3&D wings are obviously extremely valuable but elite creation at that size is probably the most valuable trait in the whole league
Murray's lack of playmaking is a concern. I have the same concern about Jabari Smith Jr. And it's why I currently have Banchero as the top prospect in this draft. The ability to consistently draw defenders and then hit the open man is maybe the most important in today's NBA.

Holmgren has great playmaking ability but can't impose his will on the defense to force double teams.

Sharpe might have that ability but who knows. Ivey can impose his will on the defense but his playmaking is that of a scoring guard, not a lead guard/point guard.

Maybe Murray didn't playmake more because he had to carry his team. And maybe Jabari will develop that ability in time given how young he is. But if not it does limit them a bit. That said, even if both top out as role players (perhaps even high level role player) they both fit well with Fox and Sabonis while Ivey and Banchero seemingly don't.

It will be an interesting draft.
 
I'm a bit confused on who are the people that were saying that? Who are the people that thought a 6'8 elite playmaker with absolute top tier basketball IQ was somehow low ceiling? Im especially interested on who thought a non defending big with low bbiq and below average shooting ability had somehow higher ceiling on how valuable that player could become. Are those people viewed as well informed talent evaluators?

Compared to Murray, Luka is at least a couple of tiers above him as a prospect. +6'8 elite playmakers with elite basketball IQ are extremely rare and probably the most valuable player types overall. Elite 3&D wings are obviously extremely valuable but elite creation at that size is probably the most valuable trait in the whole league
I remember reading here or even StR back in the day people questioning his athleticism and him playing euro league vs ncaa. I don’t remember a particular scout or analyst specifically but from most of his detractors, those were the question marks that might people had from him becoming a superstar. Of course they were wrong but hindsight is 20/20. (Keep in mind, as proven by @kb02 my memory isn’t the greatest :p)
 
Back when Kings were seen as likely picking around #7 talk here and elsewhere was much less about Ivey/Sharpe plus basically zero about the "Big 3." Much more about Matherin and Murray plus couple others in the expected lower tier, 7-10. To me with all the glut of guards on Kings roster and definite need for wing production that should put Arizona and Iowa star players front and center. I like Sharpe a lot but the risk just might be to hot to handle. I'd go with Matherin who in some ways is like Sharpe (both athletic high flyers, rim attackers, good outside shot, etc.) but Bennedict is more seasoned, likely more NBA ready. Murray would be OK if he goes to Kings at #4 but I like Matherin for his star potential in a Kings uniform.
 
Doncic was 18 and winning the MVP in the 2nd most competitive league in the world. He was a different animal and people that tricked themselves into thinking that were always asinine.
There were quite a few scouting reports that questioned Doncic upside because of his not being athletic enough for the NBA. They questioned if he was going to be just a high level role player, but not an alpha dog. He was thought to be the safe pick, because you knew you would get a productive pro, but some people questioned his Alpha-dog mentality, because he was such a heavy distributing player. I'm sure Vlade was one of those people. Murray also tore up the NCAA this year too.

I'm not comparing Murray to Doncic as a player, but more in the fact that people perceive the "safe" player with the "highest floor", can't also wind up being the best player overall. I think everyone knew, including Vlade, that Doncic had the highest floor, but he way, way underestimated his ceiling. My point being, just because Murray is the "safe" pick with the highest floor, doesn't mean he can't wind up being the best player in the draft.
 
One thing about Jabari. I get the playmaking concerns, but what if he’s a 6’10” Klay Thompson? How valuable would that player be for the Kings?
wouldn’t hurt for sure. I think he’s also the youngest out of the top 3 picks and by almost a year also so there’s extra upside there
 
One thing about Jabari. I get the playmaking concerns, but what if he’s a 6’10” Klay Thompson? How valuable would that player be for the Kings?
IMO Jabari Smith Jr is the best fit with Fox and Sabonis in this draft. He's switchable defensively, stretches the floor on offense, doesn't clog the paint, and can play off both De'Aaron and Domas. Ideally, he'd bring weakside shotblocking too, but you can't have everything.

It doesn't mean he'll be the best player, or that even that he should be the Kings main target. Just that solely in terms of fit, he's at the top of the list.

And 6'10" Klay Thompson isn't the worst way to think about it. It's not spot on as there's some significant differences, but it's light years closer than some of the early KD comparisons that they wanted to saddle this kid with. A healthy Michael Porter Jr who plays tough defense is another reasonable comp IMO.
 
Why all the negativity about picking 4th? This isn’t the first time you said this and I’m not sure I really understand. There is always a chance that players never develop into who you hoped they would be, and then there are players that develop when no one expected them to. You absolutely can find franchise altering talent at 4 with proper studying of players, interviews and luck. We picked Cousins 5th ourselves, we just sucked at managing that situation and it ended up going nowhere. Tyreke was 4th, and Curry came after him. Giannis was halfway through the first round and Jokic was in the second round! You’re talking about the last 4 MVPs that were handed out. I just can’t agree with your thinking here. If the Kings think that one or two of these guys have that type of talent or close to it, you take it and run. Forget fit. Figure that out after.
It isn't "negativity" at all. It's just an acknowledgement of the history of the quality of players you're typically going to find at the 4th spot in the draft, after the top 3 prospects get selected.

Below is that history, going back to the 1970's. There are some really good players that have been available at 4, and even a few legitimate superstars, but usually you're looking at players who fit into a tier below the eventual superstars. Yes, every draft has a player or two who massively overperforms their draft position. Guys like Jokic and Giannis are exceptional in that nobody predicted their ascension to MVP-worthy status. In other words, you can't know who those players are going to be when you're picking anywhere in the draft, so that doesn't factor into the calculus when you're picking at the top. You can't worry about whether or not a guy who is projected to go 15th or 25th or 35th might become a future MVP. You can only work with the data you have, and here's what GM's did with the data they had at the time of selecting 4th:

2020's

2021 Scottie Barnes, Florida State – Toronto Raptors
2020 Patrick Williams, Florida State – Chicago Bulls

2010's

2019 De’Andre Hunter – Atlanta Hawks
2018 Jaren Jackson Jr., Michigan State – Memphis Grizzlies
2017 Josh Jackson, Kansas – Phoenix Suns
2016 Dragan Bender, Israel – Phoenix Suns
2015 Kristaps Porzingis, Baloncesta Sevilla – New York Knicks
2014 Aaron Gordon, Arizona – Orlando Magic
2013 Cody Zeller, Indiana – Charlotte Bobcats
2012 Dion Waiters, Syracuse – Cleveland Cavaliers
2011 Tristan Thompson, Texas – Cleveland Cavaliers
2010 Wesley Johnson, Syracuse – Minnesota Timberwolves

2000’s

2009 Tyreke Evans, Memphis – Sacramento Kings
2008 Russell Westbrook, UCLA – Seattle Supersonics
2007 Mike Conley Jr, Ohio State – Memphis Grizzlies
2006 Tyrus Thomas, Louisiana State – Portland Trail Blazers
2005 Chris Paul, Wake Forest – New Orleans Hornets
2004 Shaun Livingston, Peoria HS (IL) – L.A. Clippers
2003 Chris Bosh, Georgia Tech – Toronto Raptors
2002 Drew Gooden, Kansas – Memphis Grizzlies
2001 Eddy Curry, Thornwood HS (IL) – Chicago Bulls
2000 Marcus Fizer, Iowa State – Chicago Bulls

1990’s

1999 Lamar Odom, Rhode Island – L.A. Clippers
1998 Antawn Jamison, North Carolina – Toronto Raptors
1997 Antonio Daniels, Bowling Green – Vancouver Grizzlies
1996 Stephon Marbury, Georgia Tech – Milwaukee Bucks
1995 Rasheed Wallace, North Carolina – Washington Bullets
1994 Donyell Marshall, Connecticut – Minnesota Timberwolves
1993 Jamal Mashburn, Kentucky – Dallas Mavericks
1992 Jim Jackson, Ohio State – Dallas Mavericks
1991 Dikembe Mutombo, Georgetown – Denver Nuggets
1990 Dennis Scott, Georgia Tech – Orlando Magic

1980’s

1989 Glen Rice, Michigan – Miami HEAT
1988 Chris Morris, Auburn – New Jersey Nets
1987 Reggie Williams, Georgetown – L.A. Clippers
1986 Chuck Person, Auburn – Indiana Pacers
1985 Xavier McDaniel, Wichita State – Seattle Supersonics
1984 Sam Perkins, North Carolina – Dallas Mavericks
1983 Byron Scott, Arizona State – San Diego Clippers
1982 Bill Garnett, Wyoming – Dallas Mavericks
1981 Al Wood, North Carolina – Atlanta Hawks
1980 Kelvin Ransey, Ohio State – Chicago Bulls

1970’s

1979 Greg Kelser, Michigan State – Detroit Pistons
1978 Micheal Ray Richardson, Montana – New York Knicks
1977 Greg Ballard, Oregon – Washington Bullets
1976 Leon Douglas, Alabama – Detroit Pistons
1975 Alvan Adams, Oklahoma – Phoenix Suns
1974 John Shumate, Notre Dame – Phoenix Suns
1973 Mike Green, Louisiana Tech – Seattle Supersonics
1972 Corky Calhoun, Penn – Phoenix Suns
1971 Ken Durrett, La Salle – Cincinnati Royals
1970 Dave Cowens, Florida State – Boston Celtics
 
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