I think of the three, Holmgren is the most likely to fall. I think Banchero is the least likely to be there at 4.
I wasn't super high on Banchero a few months ago but rewatching some games and seeing his strong play to finish the season I've come around to where I think he's the best player in this class. Out of Holmgren, Smith Jr, and Banchero, Paolo is the only one that can impose his will on offense. Both Jabari and Chet take what the defense gives them. Smith Jr can rise up and get a shot off over almost anyone, but he's not really a guy that you clear out for and tell him to go get you a bucket. That's just not his game. At least not at this point in his very young career. Learning to create offense (and becoming a better finisher in the paint) will be a big part of Smith Jr's growth as a player.
Banchero is a first option on offense type player who ALSO has very good playmaking abilities. It's a big part of what makes him a better prospect to me than Keegan Murray. I also think his defensive woes are a bit overstated. In the times where he's locked in on defense he moves well laterally and contains his man well. Whether he'll buy in and be more significantly engaged on that end is a legitimate question. But if he is, he can not only be a decent defender, I think he can be a plus defender, though neither he nor Jabari are shot blockers/rim protectors. But they can be relatively switchable big wings on that end of the floor.
The thing with Holmgren is that even beyond the concerns about his body, even if he hits fully he's likely not a primary option on offense. He's a potentially elite rim protector who also does a little of everything else. He's a good rebounder, pick and roll finisher, pick and pop guy, good passer, good outside shooter, can handle a bit/grab and go, cuts well, finishes with touch inside etc but he's also not a guy that you just throw the ball to and tell him to go to work. At his best he's a versatile role player who anchors a defense.
Whether one of Holmgren, Smith Jr, or Banchero may fall also has to do with who is picking in slots 1-3. The Magic, Thunder, and Rockets are all pretty guard heavy. I'm not really sure which of them would covet Ivey or Sharpe. They're all also rebuilding so I'm not sure trading down or out of their pick makes much sense either. We'll see.
Here's how I see the players at the top in terms of defense:
Banchero - in the times he's engaged he is switchable and can contain most players on the perimeter. But he's often not engaged at all.
Smith Jr. - very engaged on defense. Rotates well, fights over screens, slides his feet well and overall gives great effort. Not a shotblocker as he lacks vertical pop, and he's a bit stiff hipped so really quick players can beat him. But overall he should be a very good defender in today's NBA
Holmgren - Elite shotblocker. Has great length, good vertical pop, and most of all really good timing and awareness. The big question is, if he falls to the Kings, can he guard on the perimeter when he shares the court with Sabonis. Evan Mobley made it work in Cleveland, but Holmgren isn't as quick laterally as Mobley, though he has even more length to help recover.
Ivey - Can be a really good on ball defender. Very quick, long, and relatively strong - puts pressure on the ball and can make plays in the passing lanes. Not super switchable, but he can likely guard either guard spot and some smaller wings. The issue is that as an off-ball defender his concentration drifts and he loses his man too easily and can die on screens.
Sharpe - Who knows? He looked capable guarding one on one but doesn't always make the right rotation and can be found ball watching. But the little bit of tape I've seen is from HS games. I don't think there's any way for us to know what kind of defender Sharpe is or could be at this point.
Keegan Murray - Gives good effort on defense, and generally knows where to be on that end of the floor. He's not overly quick and he doesn't have tremendous instincts but he clearly knows his role in the defensive scheme. He's work well for a coach like Brown. I don't think he's a defensive stopper in the NBA, but he can be part of a good team defense.
Jalen Duran - Strong, athletic interior defender with a 7'6" wingspan. You don't really want him switching on to quick guards all the time but he can show and not get killed.
Johnny Davis - A bit undersized and lean and not a great athlete, but plays defense with a lot of effort and intensity.
Mathurin - Kind of the opposite of Davis. Strong and athletic but just doesn't put a lot of effort on defense. There's potential there, but that's true of a lot of athletic players that enter the league. Not a lot of them become great defenders.
Dyson Daniels - I haven't seen enough of him to feel confident in my assessment but he appears to give good effort with good size to defend 1-3.
Tari Eason - I love Eason. He's got good size and length (6'8" with a 7'2" wingspan) but he also moves like a guard. Very aggressive defender who can get steals and blocks and turn them into offense. Big, strong hands. A few times this year he's wrapped up or stripped driving players with one hand. Has a great motor. The downsides with Eason on defense is that he can be over agressive and rack up fouls and while he plays hard, he's not always in the right position. Brown would probably also be a good coach for him. The bigger issue is if he can get consistent with his funky shot and adjust to a lower usage rate as well as learn to take care of the ball better. He reminds me a bit of a better version of Paul Reed, who I also liked coming out of college.
Jeremy Sochan - Defense is his best attribute. Big, tough, long, and quick he's very switchable. He can defend on the perimeter or in the paint. He's good on the ball, off the ball, and as a help defender. He's not a shotblocker but otherwise he's about as complete a defender as you'll see for a 19 year old. He's also a good rebounder, ballhandler and playmaker. The big question with Sochan is if he'll be able to develop a consistent shot. He was under 30% from three and under 60% from the FT line. That makes me very nervous.
AJ Griffin - I'm lower on Griffin than most. And while he seems like with his size/length, strength and athleticism he should be a good defender, he seemd to get beat a lot when I watched him. Part of it was not being consistently alert, but he also seemed to get beat more often than he should and took poor angles to the ball.
I wasn't super high on Banchero a few months ago but rewatching some games and seeing his strong play to finish the season I've come around to where I think he's the best player in this class. Out of Holmgren, Smith Jr, and Banchero, Paolo is the only one that can impose his will on offense. Both Jabari and Chet take what the defense gives them. Smith Jr can rise up and get a shot off over almost anyone, but he's not really a guy that you clear out for and tell him to go get you a bucket. That's just not his game. At least not at this point in his very young career. Learning to create offense (and becoming a better finisher in the paint) will be a big part of Smith Jr's growth as a player.
Banchero is a first option on offense type player who ALSO has very good playmaking abilities. It's a big part of what makes him a better prospect to me than Keegan Murray. I also think his defensive woes are a bit overstated. In the times where he's locked in on defense he moves well laterally and contains his man well. Whether he'll buy in and be more significantly engaged on that end is a legitimate question. But if he is, he can not only be a decent defender, I think he can be a plus defender, though neither he nor Jabari are shot blockers/rim protectors. But they can be relatively switchable big wings on that end of the floor.
The thing with Holmgren is that even beyond the concerns about his body, even if he hits fully he's likely not a primary option on offense. He's a potentially elite rim protector who also does a little of everything else. He's a good rebounder, pick and roll finisher, pick and pop guy, good passer, good outside shooter, can handle a bit/grab and go, cuts well, finishes with touch inside etc but he's also not a guy that you just throw the ball to and tell him to go to work. At his best he's a versatile role player who anchors a defense.
Whether one of Holmgren, Smith Jr, or Banchero may fall also has to do with who is picking in slots 1-3. The Magic, Thunder, and Rockets are all pretty guard heavy. I'm not really sure which of them would covet Ivey or Sharpe. They're all also rebuilding so I'm not sure trading down or out of their pick makes much sense either. We'll see.
Here's how I see the players at the top in terms of defense:
Banchero - in the times he's engaged he is switchable and can contain most players on the perimeter. But he's often not engaged at all.
Smith Jr. - very engaged on defense. Rotates well, fights over screens, slides his feet well and overall gives great effort. Not a shotblocker as he lacks vertical pop, and he's a bit stiff hipped so really quick players can beat him. But overall he should be a very good defender in today's NBA
Holmgren - Elite shotblocker. Has great length, good vertical pop, and most of all really good timing and awareness. The big question is, if he falls to the Kings, can he guard on the perimeter when he shares the court with Sabonis. Evan Mobley made it work in Cleveland, but Holmgren isn't as quick laterally as Mobley, though he has even more length to help recover.
Ivey - Can be a really good on ball defender. Very quick, long, and relatively strong - puts pressure on the ball and can make plays in the passing lanes. Not super switchable, but he can likely guard either guard spot and some smaller wings. The issue is that as an off-ball defender his concentration drifts and he loses his man too easily and can die on screens.
Sharpe - Who knows? He looked capable guarding one on one but doesn't always make the right rotation and can be found ball watching. But the little bit of tape I've seen is from HS games. I don't think there's any way for us to know what kind of defender Sharpe is or could be at this point.
Keegan Murray - Gives good effort on defense, and generally knows where to be on that end of the floor. He's not overly quick and he doesn't have tremendous instincts but he clearly knows his role in the defensive scheme. He's work well for a coach like Brown. I don't think he's a defensive stopper in the NBA, but he can be part of a good team defense.
Jalen Duran - Strong, athletic interior defender with a 7'6" wingspan. You don't really want him switching on to quick guards all the time but he can show and not get killed.
Johnny Davis - A bit undersized and lean and not a great athlete, but plays defense with a lot of effort and intensity.
Mathurin - Kind of the opposite of Davis. Strong and athletic but just doesn't put a lot of effort on defense. There's potential there, but that's true of a lot of athletic players that enter the league. Not a lot of them become great defenders.
Dyson Daniels - I haven't seen enough of him to feel confident in my assessment but he appears to give good effort with good size to defend 1-3.
Tari Eason - I love Eason. He's got good size and length (6'8" with a 7'2" wingspan) but he also moves like a guard. Very aggressive defender who can get steals and blocks and turn them into offense. Big, strong hands. A few times this year he's wrapped up or stripped driving players with one hand. Has a great motor. The downsides with Eason on defense is that he can be over agressive and rack up fouls and while he plays hard, he's not always in the right position. Brown would probably also be a good coach for him. The bigger issue is if he can get consistent with his funky shot and adjust to a lower usage rate as well as learn to take care of the ball better. He reminds me a bit of a better version of Paul Reed, who I also liked coming out of college.
Jeremy Sochan - Defense is his best attribute. Big, tough, long, and quick he's very switchable. He can defend on the perimeter or in the paint. He's good on the ball, off the ball, and as a help defender. He's not a shotblocker but otherwise he's about as complete a defender as you'll see for a 19 year old. He's also a good rebounder, ballhandler and playmaker. The big question with Sochan is if he'll be able to develop a consistent shot. He was under 30% from three and under 60% from the FT line. That makes me very nervous.
AJ Griffin - I'm lower on Griffin than most. And while he seems like with his size/length, strength and athleticism he should be a good defender, he seemd to get beat a lot when I watched him. Part of it was not being consistently alert, but he also seemed to get beat more often than he should and took poor angles to the ball.
